Very difficult away games in 2012

[cambsaint]

I've just been looking to see which away games my son and I can realistically get to in 2012.
Now my family have left Winchester and due to poor health home games aren't a realistic option any more.
What struck me very forcibly is that we have eight very difficult away games aginst our promotion challengers that we can only realistically hope to get 6 to 10 points out of, and 10 is being very optimistic imo.
Home doesn't look too bad, but there are a few potential banana skins.

This reinforces my opinion and it appears to be widely held that if we really want to go for promotion this year we must buy three or four quality players to strengthen the squad.

Imo we need a good centre back, a pacey creative attacking midfielder, an extra striker and cover for goalkeeper, but I don't see Bart ever playing so badly again.

Not original thoughts but depending on the outcome of the Jan transfer window I'll know just how serious the family are in gaining promotion this year!

[Thedelldays]

we have the likes of...

west ham
boro
brum
leeds
hull

away

but home

cov
donny
bristol city (sort of)
burnley (no great shakes)
ipswich
pompey
barnsley


what can you say, it is a tough league

[opthomps]

we've seemed to do as well against the so called good teams as the bad teams anyway haven't we?

[Dr Who?]

We will be fine, but mainly our home form. We will win a few away and pick up points.

[Thedelldays]

oh...we will lose at home at some point

[Turkish]

every away game is difficult when you have only taken one point in your last 3 against teams in the bottom 10.

[Thedelldays]

just cannot see us getting anything at west ham....or at boro or at leeds...

[Turkish]

just cannot see us getting anything at west ham....or at boro or at leeds...

Leeds i can, they are rubbish at home. Although i expect they'd have sorted it by the time we play them.

[Thedelldays]

Leeds i can, they are rubbish at home. Although i expect they'd have sorted it by the time we play them.
but luckily...we have the 3 bottom teams to come to sms

[S-Clarke]

just cannot see us getting anything at west ham....or at boro or at leeds...

TBF West Hams home record isn't the best.

and to be honest, the games that are deemed the hardest, often turn out to be the most straight forward for us.

I remember us panicking last year as we still had to go to Brighton away, Bournemouth away etc...yet we won both. Let's see what happens, I reckon we'll win a few people don't expect us to.....and probably loose a few we aren't expected to!

[Thedelldays]

Npower Championship
Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm) v Doncaster (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/d/doncaster/default.stm), 15:00
Saturday, 31 March 2012
Npower Championship
Blackpool (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/blackpool/default.stm) v Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm), 15:00
Saturday, 7 April 2012
Npower Championship
Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm) v Portsmouth (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/p/portsmouth/default.stm), 13:00
Monday, 9 April 2012
Npower Championship
Crystal Palace (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/c/crystal_palace/default.stm) v Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm), 15:00
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Npower Championship
Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm) v Reading (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/r/reading/default.stm), 15:00
Tuesday, 17 April 2012
Npower Championship
Peterborough (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/p/peterborough_united/default.stm) v Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm), 19:45
Saturday, 21 April 2012
Npower Championship
Middlesbrough (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/middlesbrough/default.stm) v Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm), 15:00
Saturday, 28 April 2012
Npower Championship
Southampton (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/default.stm) v Coventry (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/c/coventry_city/default.stm), 12:30



this is our run in........cov at home last day could be very crucial..for top 2/6

[Matthew Le God]

24 games left
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points, which has been enough to win the league for the average season over the last 5 years.

[doddisalegend]

We've beaten most of thetop sides at SMS so if we can take a point from them away we will do fine

[Thedelldays]

We've beaten most of thetop sides at SMS so if we can take a point from them away we will do fine
I guess you should look at it that way...

we have played..west ham, leeds, boor, hull at home and got 3 points from them that they won't get back

[doddisalegend]

I guess you should look at it that way...

we have played..west ham, leeds, boor, hull at home and got 3 points from them that they won't get back

That's the way I'm looking at it get a draw against these teams and we've taken 4pts out of 6pts against them lets face a point away at Westham or boro is a good result. It would be nice to pick up up a few more away points against lower half sides mind you.....

[Jack]

We're having a wobble, but I fully expect us to get back to (or very close to) the level we were at in the first 15 games or so.

I think this is a blip, rather than 'we were punching above our weight'.

I reckon we'll stay be in the top 2 when it matters.

[Saint_clark]

It would be magic if the top 2 pull away in such a fashion that we can secure promotion V the Skates.

Realistically, I think it will be resolved away to Boro.

[VectisSaint]

just cannot see us getting anything at west ham....or at boro or at leeds...
Why not at Boro? They have a very poor home record, drawing most of their games, a point would seem quite achievable. They are much better away. Leeds are also quite average at home, their away record is better, and even WHU have a better away record than home. With the last two there is an expectancy from their home supporters which makes them shaky at home. Possibly the same with Boro. I can see us getting at least a point against all three, which of course means taking points from them as well.

[Thedelldays]

Why not at Boro? They have a very poor home record, drawing most of their games, a point would seem quite achievable. They are much better away. Leeds are also quite average at home, their away record is better, and even WHU have a better away record than home. With the last two there is an expectancy from their home supporters which makes them shaky at home. Possibly the same with Boro. I can see us getting at least a point against all three, which of course means taking points from them as well.
because we let away too many goals when playing away...the table and stats do not lie....

[teamsaint]

we can beat any team in this league home or away. Just need to have enough good days.

[Saint_clark]

because we let away too many goals when playing away...the table and stats do not lie....

Interesting. You're assuming that will not change - and yet you said further up the thread that we will lose at home at some point? Surely if our home form can change, then our away form can as well?
Personally I don't think we will lose at home this season, although we'll have a couple of sh*te draws, and our away form will pick up ever so slightly.

[Bensfcno1]

So weve beaten all of these teams except one at home, but that must also mean weve had our hardest home games and dropped just two points....think this is a positive!

[NickG]

24 games left
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points, which has been enough to win the league for the average season over the last 5 years.

with 12 home games left - win majority of those and we won't need too much away for 2nd. Home form keeps going we should be comfortable - if not still decent chance

[Gemmel]

24 games left
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points, which has been enough to win the league for the average season over the last 5 years.

Deserves a thread of it's own...... Very do-able (Is that a word)

[adriansfc]

Every fixture is tough. We're as likely to win at West Ham as lose at Doncaster. It's an unpredictable league, for everyone.

I'm sure every team out there would like to 'add four quality players', but it's about money available and who we can attract isn't it. Personally I think signing a large number of players would be a disaster. Close knit bunch of good players get to 1st place and are rewarded by losing their places and seeing new people come in on more money? I imagine we'll sign 1 or 2 at most, and I expect they'll be players Adkins has been thinking about for some time.

[adriansfc]

Interesting. You're assuming that will not change - and yet you said further up the thread that we will lose at home at some point? Surely if our home form can change, then our away form can as well?
Personally I don't think we will lose at home this season, although we'll have a couple of sh*te draws, and our away form will pick up ever so slightly.

I think we'll lose a few at home, but you're right, it's crazy to assume home will change for the worse, but away form won't improve. I think we'll still see away defeats, but increase the number of wins rather than draws. Who cares where the points come as long as we keep them coming.

Not sure Saints fans can handle success yet. when fighting relegation you don't need to panic about every slip up, you just move on and hope to win a game soon. But last season and now, there's no time to celebrate winning, it's all about maintaining form, not allowing any slip ups, so it's become far more tense. Maybe the mentality will change when we slip down a bit and we're chasing 1st or 2nd rather than being chased.

I hope whatever happens that Adkins and the players get a lot of credit for what they've done.

[CB Fry]

24 games left
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points, which has been enough to win the league for the average season over the last 5 years.



Very acheivable. It would be worth seeing how bad our form needs to be for us to finish only sixth. My guess it would need to be pretty (and unrealistically) horrendous.

[Matthew Le God]

24 games left
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points, which has been enough to win the league for the average season over the last 5 years.


Very acheivable. It would be worth seeing how bad our form needs to be for us to finish only sixth. My guess it would need to be pretty (and unrealistically) horrendous.

6th in the Championship last season was Forest with 75 points.

For Saints to get the 31 points to add to the 44 points already from the remaining 24 games it would need something like...

Play 24
Win 8
Draw 7
Lose 7

As you say, it would need a massive downturn in form compared to the first 22 games of the season to not finish in the playoffs at the very least. Basically that is mid table form for the remainder of the season.

[shurlock]

24 games left
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points, which has been enough to win the league for the average season over the last 5 years.

What does that mean in English?

[Matthew Le God]

What does that mean in English?

Take all the point totals for Championship winners in the last 5 seasons and divide by 5.

2010/2011 - QPR - 88 points
2009/2010 - Newcastle - 102
2008/2009 - Wolverhampton - 90
2007/2008 - West Brom - 81
2006/2007 - Sunderland - 88

Mean: 89.8 (90 if you what to be fussy and round up ;))

24 games left, 44 points already in the bag
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points.

[svetigpung]

Hope are away form improves next year.

Missed out on Brighton in January but planning on doing Leeds away in march.

[Turkish]

Take all the point totals for Championship winners in the last 5 seasons and divide by 5.

2010/2011 - QPR - 88 points
2009/2010 - Newcastle - 102
2008/2009 - Wolverhampton - 90
2007/2008 - West Brom - 81
2006/2007 - Sunderland - 88

Mean: 89.8 (90 if you what to be fussy and round up ;))

It is also higher than perhaps it would normally be due to Newcastle boosting the average. The figure for this season might be relatively low.

24 games left, 44 points already in the bag
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points.

Using that logic it's lower than it would be usually because West Brom were a lot lower than the average.

An average of two points per game wins the title in all but exceptional circumstances. We are on course at the moment but only just.

[shurlock]

Take all the point totals for Championship winners in the last 5 seasons and divide by 5.

2010/2011 - QPR - 88 points
2009/2010 - Newcastle - 102
2008/2009 - Wolverhampton - 90
2007/2008 - West Brom - 81
2006/2007 - Sunderland - 88

Mean: 89.8 (90 if you what to be fussy and round up ;))

It is also higher than perhaps it would normally be due to Newcastle boosting the average. The figure for this season might be relatively low.

24 games left, 44 points already in the bag
13 wins
6 draws
5 defeats

Would see Saints on 89 points.

Interesting. Only thing I would say is that the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 were freak seasons - teams getting relegated with over 50 points etc. Also wonder why you drew a line at 2006/07 and left off Reading's exploits for instance?

FWIW, reckon this year's winner will finish on 92-95 points.

[Saint_clark]

Interesting. Only thing I would say is that the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 were freak seasons - teams getting relegated with over 50 points etc. Also wonder why you drew a line at 2006/07 and left off Reading's exploits for instance?

FWIW, reckon this year's winner will finish on 92-95 points.

Because that's more than 5 seasons back.

[70's Mike]

no panic required, we appear to play better against the so called top sides

[shurlock]

Because that's more than 5 seasons back.

Why stop at 5 seasons, though? What is the statistical significance of that year? Seems arbitrary to me and more of a case of bending the numbers to make point. I mean go further back in time and you'll see the champions from most seasons registering well over 90 points. If that's the goal -and frankly I dont give a flying f**k how we get out of the league- maybe we're going to have to win a few more games and go on a better run than the forum statto is trying to suggest. Either way, he should know better.

[Matthew Le God]

Why stop at 5 seasons, though? What is the statistical significance of that year? Seems arbitrary to me and more of a case of bending the numbers to make point. I mean go further back in time and you'll see the champions from most seasons registering well over 90 points. If that's the goal -and frankly I dont give a flying f**k how we get out of the league- maybe we're going to have to win a few more games and go on a better run than the forum statto is trying to suggest. Either way, he should know better.

I took it from another Saints forum.

http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/109718-Points-total-needed-to-win-the-league

In any case even if the average was slightly higher, it shows that Saints due to the points they have already amassed this season can afford to drop points in quite a few of the remaining 24 games and still do very well. I didn't expect the Shurlock inquisition...! ;)

[for_heaven's_Saint]

I know we are capable of beating any side in the league on our day, but I do think that sometimes, when for example we have a few injuries, we should be going to away games looking to keep a clean sheet then hit on the counter if the opportunity arises.

[Window Cleaner]

just cannot see us getting anything at west ham....or at boro or at leeds...

Leeds are shîte, didn't Reading beat them at home the other day.Other than that I think West Ham will explode,aren't they losing a few players to the ANC soon?

[shurlock]

I took it from another Saints forum.

http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/109718-Points-total-needed-to-win-the-league

In any case even if the average was slightly higher, it shows that Saints due to the points they have already amassed this season can afford to drop points in quite a few of the remaining 24 games and still do very well. I didn't expect the Shurlock inquisition...! ;)

As I say, I couldn't care less if we go up as runners up -and that points target is much more realistic. Just as long as its not like 2009/10 or 2005/2006 ;)

[Orange]

Got some good away days to come. Blackpool should be a cracker. Look foward to Upton Park under floodlights too.

[sandwichsaint]

Leeds are shîte, didn't Reading beat them at home the other day.Other than that I think West Ham will explode,aren't they losing a few players to the ANC soon?

Implode? (hopefully yes!)

[Dalek2003]

6th in the Championship last season was Forest with 75 points.

For Saints to get the 31 points to add to the 44 points already from the remaining 24 games it would need something like...

Play 24
Win 8
Draw 7
Lose 7

As you say, it would need a massive downturn in form compared to the first 22 games of the season to not finish in the playoffs at the very least. Basically that is mid table form for the remainder of the season.

I still think 17th is more likely.

[moonraker]

There are many ways to use the statistics. The 5 year perspective considers the most recent performnces and could be argued to be the most relevent target, whilst it is a small sample it is statiscally sound within the context of the modern championship. If you use a 10 year perspective then the target is signifcanly different. The target also changes whether you use Average or Median values. For info only here are the Average and Median stats for the 10 year period, years 1 - 5 and years 6 - 10, rounded up as the FL only award whole points!

MEDIAN POINTS REQUIRED FOR PROMOTION AVERAGE POINTS REQUIRED FOR PROMOTION

10 Year Champs 94 94
Runners Up 87 87
Years 1 - 5 Champs 98 98
Runners Up 89 89
Years 6 - 10 Champs 88 90
Runners Up 83 85


In reality it is simple you have to gain more points than 22 other clubs to win automatic promotion!!!