When Blackpool were promoted to the Championship the majority of Saints fans saw the away trip as little more than an opportunity to have a bit of a jolly both on and off the pitch. Tomorrow’s clash, though, is strictly about taking the three points rather than kiss-me-quick hats and a stroll along the prom. After moving out to 13/8 for the drop before Barnsley’s midweek win, Saints now find themselves back as even money shots to get relegated and anything other than victory here is likely to see a further reduction in the price.

There are at least a few pointers to suggest that Mark Wotte’s men can leave Bloomfield Road with a priceless win. No team- including the seemingly doomed Charlton - have lost more games on home turf than the Tangerines with no club in the bottom half of the table able to beat our six wins on the road. It should also be noted that, prior to the recent home success against Norwich, they had lost four consecutive games on this ground.

Against this argument is Blackpool’s impressive recent form which has seen them take seven points from nine and their victory at St Mary’s back in August. Although Saints have only drawn three from eighteen on their league travels so far (a marked contrast to last season’s 10 away stalemates from 23), we just can not see past the team drawing their third successive game at a top price of 12/5 with Skybet.

After the uninspired bore draw against QPR we should expect to see a few goals tomorrow. Blackpool have only kept four home clean sheets so far and QPR, Doncaster and Watford have all netted at least twice on recent visits here. Regular readers will not be surprised to discover that we are opting for the 2-2 final scoreline at odds of 16/1. Both teams have enjoyed this outcome three times already this season and this was indeed the result the last time they met in the north-west.

Once again it is shiny pin time for punters who hope to make money on the first or last scorers. Only sidelined Ben Burgess has netted more than five league goals for Blackpool while no Saint has consistently produced in the Championship. Looking for a bit of value, we are going for Rudi Skacel to grab only his second goal of the campaign at odds of 25/1.

Match Odds (best prices at time of writing)

Rudi Skacel: best-priced 25/1 for first/last goalscorer

Blackpool: 7/5
Saints: 2/1
Draw: 12/5

Blackpool to win:
1-0 - 7/1
2-0 - 11/1
2-1 - 9/1
3-0 - 25/1
3-1 - 22/1

Saints to win:
1-0 - 8/1
2-0 - 14/1
2-1 - 11/1
3-0 - 40/1
3-1 - 33/1

Draw:
0-0 - 17/2
1-1 - 6/1
2-2 - 16/1

First/Last Goalscorer:
DJ Campbell 6/1
Brett Ormerod 6/1
Marek Saganowski 8/1
David McGoldrick 8/1
Bradley Wright-Phillips 9/1
Matt Paterson 9/1
Jason Euell 12/1
Adam Lallana 14/1
Andrew Surman 16/1
Graeme Owens 20/1
Jake Thomson 25/1
Simon Gillett 25/1
Rudi Skacel 25/1
Zoltan Liptak 40/1
Jan-Paul Saeijs 40/1
Chris Perry 50/1

Other Championship Odds

Title Race:
Wolves 11/10
Birmingham 5/2
Reading 9/2
Cardiff 9/1
Sheffield United 25/1

To be relegated:
Charlton 1/66
Saints Evens
Norwich 6/4
Nottingham Forest 7/4
Plymouth 2/1
Barnsley 4/1
Blackpool 9/2
12/1 Bar

Success and failure are always relative. And, by that token, we could suggest that QPR have had a more frustrating season than Saints so far. The Londoners began the campaign as joint title favourites - along with Birmingham - but, with the expected big money buys failing to materialise, they arrive at St Mary’s as outsiders to even grab a play-off spot. Furthermore, we can see some real gravity in backing Mark Wotte’s men to win their third game in four on home territory.

For all that early hype, Rangers are definitely one of the poorest away sides in the division. Only rock-bottom Charlton have won fewer league matches on their travels while just Plymouth and Barnsley have netted fewer away goals. Their backers could claim that all three victories on the road have come against struggling sides (Norwich, Derby and Blackpool) and that they have never lost at SMS (two wins and a draw) but we can easily counter that. Their last two away fixtures have resulted in defeats at Barnsley and Donny and the team have not won a Championship game since the end of January. This strongly suggests to me that they already have one eye on the end of the season and the R&R that goes with it.

Southampton may not be too extravagantly priced at 11/8 to take all three points but it is a firm selection for us.

We’ve already mentioned that QPR are not finding the net regularly this season (they have failed to score in eleven out of nineteen away games including eight in a row at one point) and Saints themselves are averaging less than a goal a game on this ground. That should lead us towards taking the 7/1 on offer for the 1-0 home victory but there are reasons for hoping that Saints can get a couple tomorrow. In three out of the last four away from Loftus Road, Rangers have leaked exactly two and these came at Forest, Barnsley and Donny. While recommending a small saver on 1-0, our main bet is for the 2-1 Saints win at best odds of 9/1.

Punters who backed Chris Perry to break the deadlock on Tuesday may consider themselves fortunate that their man was credited with his second 50/1 opener of the campaign. Bet365 and Betfred have the defender at the same price to make it a hat-trick of St Mary’s openers tomorrow but I am looking further up the lists. Jason Euell looks in respectable nick and we like the 11/1 on him scoring the final goal of the afternoon.

Mark Wotte has had a decent month so far and VC still make him a 6/1 shot to win the March Manager of the Month award.

Match Odds (best prices at time of writing)

Jason Euell - best-priced 11/1 for first/last goalscorer tomorrow

Saints: 11/8
QPR: 11/5
Draw: 12/5

Saints to win:
1-0 - 7/1
2-0 - 10/1
2-1 - 9/1
3-0 - 25/1
3-1 - 22/1

QPR to win:
1-0 - 15/2
2-0 - 16/1
2-1 - 12/1
3-0 - 40/1
3-1 - 33/1

Draw:
0-0 - 8/1
1-1 - 6/1
2-2 - 14/1

First/Last Goalscorer:
Marek Saganowski 6/1
David McGoldrick 13/2
Heidur Helguson 7/1
Dexter Blackstock 15/2
Bradley Wright-Phillips 9/1
Adam Lallana 10/1
Jason Euell 11/1
Wayne Routledge 14/1
Andrew Surman 14/1
Simon Gillett 25/1
Jan-Paul Saeijs 40/1
Fitz Hall 40/1
Chris Perry 50/1

Other Championship Odds

To be Relegated:
Charlton 1/25
Saints Evens
Norwich 11/10
Blackpool 12/5
Nottingham Forest 11/4
Barnsley 3/1
Plymouth 3/1
7/1 Bar

Title Race:
Wolves 6/4
Reading 9/4
Birmingham 3/1
Cardiff 9/1
Sheffield United 40/1

Not only are the bookies unsure about tonight’s game but the opposing fans seem equally reluctant to make a definitive opinion about tonight’s potential outcome. A Derby supporting friend in the betting industry is adamant that Saints will not lose while most of our lot seem happy to take a point.

I think I’ll go along with that. Since our relegation we are yet to beat the Rams on this ground with a draw and two defeats (including play-off) from three matches with just one goal scored. It should also be noted that tonight’s Derby side will be a totally different proposition from the team we beat at Pride Park in September. They are even finding their form on the road having doubled their tally of away wins recently with victories at Forest and Plymouth. Incidentally all four wins on their travels, QPR and Norwich along with the aforementioned two, have come against sides having a poorer season than expected. Saints would also fall into this category.

Andrew Surman - 14/1 to score first tonight

However, we must take hope from our back-to-back St Mary’s wins against promotion hopefuls Cardiff and PNE. That at least implies we should take something from this important clash even if it is only a point. The draw is best-priced at 12/5 with Skybet.

Only Donny have netted fewer home goals than our lot and the lack of clear chances against Birmingham remains a worry. Yet the three goals scored against both Preston and Ipswich strongly suggests we will at least get on the scoreboard this evening. The two-all draw has been a profitable result for its followers this season and a repeat here at 14/1 would not be a great surprise.

With Saga slightly off the boil (Paddy Power offer 7/1 on him scoring first) we will not burden him with the weight of our money. In any case, we rather like the look of Saints’ second top scorer Andrew Surman who again seems over-priced at 14/1 to break the deadlock. For the opposition, Rob Hulse has previous form against us and five of his twelve goals so far have been openers.

Finally, if you like the cut of Mark Wotte’s gib - and he must be a huge improvement on Jan Poortvliet - Victor Chandler are offering 7/1 on the Saints boss winning the March Manager of the Month award.

Match Odds - Saints v Derby (Best Prices - correct at time of writing)

Saints: 6/4
Derby: 21/10
Draw: 12/5

Saints to win:
1-0 - 7/1
2-0 - 11/1
2-1 - 10/1
3-0 - 25/1
3-1 - 22/1

Derby to win:
1-0 - 8/1
2-0 - 12/1
2-1 - 11/1
3-0 - 33/1
3-1 - 28/1

Draw:
0-0 - 10/1
1-1 - 6/1
2-2 - 14/1

First/Last Goalscorer:
David McGoldrick 6/1
Marek Saganowski 7/1
Rob Hulse 7/1
Bradley Wright-Phillips 15/2
Matt Paterson 8/1
Luke Varney 8/1
Jason Euell 10/1
Adam Lallana 12/1
Andrew Surman 14/1
Rudi Skacel 20/1
Paul Wotton 20/1
Robbie Savage 20/1
Jan-Paul Saeijs 40/1
Zoltan Liptak 40/1
Chris Perry 50/1

Other Championship Odds

To be Relegated:
Charlton 1/16
Norwich 8/11
Saints 11/10
Blackpool 9/2
Barnsley 3/1
Plymouth 3/1
Nottingham Forest 7/2
8/1 Bar

Title Race:
Wolves 13/8
Reading 12/5
Birmingham 7/2
Cardiff 8/1
Sheffield United 33/1

Hindsight is obviously a wonderful tool. But most Saints fans knew from very early on this season three of the factors that appear to have revitalised the club. You didn’t need a degree in football science to realise that Mark Wotte possessed greater managerial stature than his predecessor, that two up front was a must and that some experience in the team was crucial.

Whether the club’s belated acknowledgement of these factors will save them from the drop remains to be seen but our knowing that Saints are getting it right on the pitch gives us a slight edge on the bookies ahead of tomorrow’s game.

Despite picking up three successive wins, the team can still be backed at 4-1 to take all three points and I think that warrants some serious consideration. Birmingham may sit second in the table with the impressive looking home record of twelve wins and three draws from eighteen league fixtures but it is very easy to pick holes in parts of their form. For instance, no fewer than nine of these victories have come by just a single goal margin while the very average Blackpool and Coventry sides have managed to leave St Andrews with all three points. They have also recently been held by Swansea, Cardiff and Burnley on this ground. Of course, we must not forget that Saints have lost their last four corresponding fixtures here (all by a single goal) but only four Championship teams have won more away games than Wotte’s men and that counts for something. You can get a whopping 9-1 on Saints leading at both half and full-time but the straight 4-1 for the outright victory will do for me.

There was plenty of 80-1 floating about for the 3-0 away win on Tuesday and several firms offer that, or better, on a repeat tomorrow. I will be a bit more conservative though. St Andrews has only seen thirty seven league goals so far (just four games supplying eighteen of them) while also witnessing no fewer than eight matches ending 1-0. However, six of Saints’ last eight have seen at least three strikes in the ninety minutes. The Skybet 20-1 for the 2-1 away win has to be the value selection for me.

Alex McLeish may well have lavished comparative fortunes on various strikers in the past fifteen months but this team’s haul of 42 goals in 36 games is poor for a promotion chasing side. This helps our decision to opt for a Saint to break the deadlock. In a market mainly dominated by Brum players, Jason Euell is 14-1 to net first but we like the 8-1 on Saganowski getting the final goal of the game. With Saints now 5-4 for the drop, in bookie-speak they are now odds-on at 4-7 to stay up. Good news.

Match Odds - Birmingham v Saints (Best Prices*)

Birmingham: 4/5
Saints: 4/1
Draw: 5/2

Birmingham to win:
1-0 - 6/1
2-0 - 13/2
2-1 - 7/1
3-0 - 12/1
3-1 - 11/1

Saints to win:
1-0 - 10/1
2-0 - 25/1
2-1 - 20/1
3-0 - 80/1
3-1 - 50/1

Draw:
0-0 - 8/1
1-1 - 11/2
2-2 - 14/1

First/Last Goalscorer:
Garry O’Connor 6/1
Cameron Jerome 6/1
Carlos Costly 13/2
Marek Saganowski 8/1
David McGoldrick 8/1
Bradley Wright-Phillips 11/1
Adam Lallana 14/1
Jason Euell 14/1
Andrew Surman 16/1
Simon Gillett 25/1
Rudi Skacel 25/1
Franck Queudrue 33/1
Jan-Paul Saeijs 40/1
Chris Perry 50/1

Other Championship Odds

Title Race:
Reading 7/4
Wolves 15/8
Birmingham 4/1
Cardiff 9/1
Sheffield United 25/1

To be Relegated:
Charlton 1/8
Norwich 10/11
Saints 5/4
Blackpool 7/4
Plymouth 9/4
Barnsley 11/4
Nottingham Forest 10/3
11/2 Bar

* prices correct at time of writing