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Pompey Takeover Saga


Fitzhugh Fella

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It is definitely Plymouth. Impossible to be anyone else. Neither can move positions.

 

Happy to be corrected, I hadn't looked this morning

 

Partially true. They will play Plymouth, but they can swap positions, which will change who plays at home first - which as I keep banging on about, is a big deal when you're as single-faceted as the Skates are at attacking - if they go behind more often than not they're screwed. We'd like them to be home in the first leg, which means we'd want them to finish below Plymouth.

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Dull fact - after 36 games in L2 they had 57pts. Same as our return from 36 games.

 

I'm sure I could extrapolate something from this regarding the likelihood of a skewed fixture list after 36/46ths of the season rather than 36/38ths, but I think it's more pertinent to say that if we were in the kind of position in the Prem that they are in in League 2 with regards to crowd sizes (and probably turnover) compared to the other teams, we'd be absolutely gutted to only be 6th/7th.

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What myth?

 

We had one season with the media banging on about homegrown players and that was when Poch was in charge.

 

Yeah, I don't recall any Saints fans talking about us having a core of young English players since we sold all of them nearly 2 years ago. Have they just created a myth about a myth?

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Absolutely correct. And what were the odds of 4 of those 5 happening?

 

You need the odds of

Skates winning both games is 1.8x2.2=3.96.

 

PLUS 3 of the following

Accrington to lose both is 4.5 x 9 = 40.5

(That would be 200/1 just for the Portsmouth and Accrington results btw).

 

Now if someone wants to do the maths on the WDL permutations above...

 

Oxford were 1.95 to win, 3.8 to draw and 4 to lose last weekend. They're 1.33 to win, 5 to draw and 9 to lose next week.

Bristol Rovers are 1.22 to win, 6 to draw and 12 to lose this weekend coming, were 1.5, 4.75 and 6 respectively last weekend.

Plymouth 1.67 to win, 3.75 to draw, 5 to lose coming up and W 2.63, D 3.6 and L2.7 the game just gone.

 

Anyone? :D

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You need the odds of

Skates winning both games is 1.8x2.2=3.96.

 

PLUS 3 of the following

Accrington to lose both is 4.5 x 9 = 40.5

(That would be 200/1 just for the Portsmouth and Accrington results btw).

 

Now if someone wants to do the maths on the WDL permutations above...

 

Oxford were 1.95 to win, 3.8 to draw and 4 to lose last weekend. They're 1.33 to win, 5 to draw and 9 to lose next week.

Bristol Rovers are 1.22 to win, 6 to draw and 12 to lose this weekend coming, were 1.5, 4.75 and 6 respectively last weekend.

Plymouth 1.67 to win, 3.75 to draw, 5 to lose coming up and W 2.63, D 3.6 and L2.7 the game just gone.

 

Anyone? :D

That's called "it was never going to happen" and it didn't.

 

Anyone with a brain knew that Pompey's automatic promotion charge was dead and buried weeks ago.

 

People can a) fanny about going on about stats and accumulator bets and Leicester's odds nine months ago and mathematical probability or b) take a cursory look at a league table several weeks ago taking in Pompey's points on the board, the remaining matches to play and the number of clubs above them and make a ten-second simple assessment that it was obviously never going to happen.

 

And oh look. It didn't. Obviously.

Edited by CB Fry
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Well *I* know that, and it's an argument between "never going to happen" and "extremely unlikely to happen". Nevertheless, finding out the actual odds will be fun for someone (not even me).

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Well *I* know that, and it's an argument between "never going to happen" and "extremely unlikely to happen". Nevertheless, finding out the actual odds will be fun for someone (not even me).

I know you know.

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My possibly dodgy mathematics suggests the odds were 10,178/1 (rounding up the decimal points) using the permutations involving Oxford, Plymouth and B Rovers. If you use the odds of Accrington losing both matches then it would have been even higher.

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My possibly dodgy mathematics suggests the odds were 10,178/1 (rounding up the decimal points) using the permutations involving Oxford, Plymouth and B Rovers. If you use the odds of Accrington losing both matches then it would have been even higher.

Dodgy indeed!

 

Sigh. Mr. Fry isn't going to admit being wrong is he? Ok, I'm a mathematician, so I'll try to give some rough odds (bearing in mind this isn't an exact science since we can't give exact odds on any match). Let's say the Skates have 50% chance of winning each match (not unreasonable since they are a stronger team than most of the other crap in the division, and had everything to play for). So that is a (1/2)*(1/2) =1/4 probability of winning both matches.

 

Plymouth had to not win both matches. If we assume that they had a 50% chance of winning each match it was again 1/4 of them winning both, so 1-(1/4) = 3/4 that they would fail in winning both (good enough for the skates).

 

Bristol Rovers had to not win either of their last two matches. If we assume 50% they would draw or lose a match, that's (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4 probability to fail to win either.

 

Finally Oxford to lose one and at best draw their other match: so LL, LD or DL would suffice. Assuming 1/4 chance of L and 1/4 chance of D, that gives 3*(1/4)*(1/4) = 3/16.

 

So for all of these to occur we have (1/4)*(3/4)*(1/4)*(3/16) = 9/1024 probability, i.e. odds of about 114/1. Now you could argue that the above estimates are too generous for the skates, but at worst maybe 200/1. Also note I have for simplicity ignored the possibility of Accrington losing both matches, which would improve the odds a bit.

 

So for Mr. Fry odds of a couple of hundred to one are equivalent to "never going to happen." And since it didn't actually happen that's "proof". But, for those of us in the real world, we knew the skates had an outside chance before Saturday's matches.

 

It reminds me of a conference I once went to. A physicist gave a talk (on mathematics) which was based on an incorrect assumption. I politely tried to explain that to him during question time, but he belligerently asserted it was true (without any proof). Afterwards one of my colleagues called his a "proof by aggression".

Edited by Dark Munster
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Dodgy indeed!

 

Sigh. Mr. Fry isn't going to admit being wrong is he? Ok, I'm a mathematician, so I'll try to give some rough odds (bearing in mind this isn't an exact science since we can't give exact odds on any match). Let's say the Skates have 50% chance of winning each match (not unreasonable since they are a stronger team than most of the other crap in the division, and had everything to play for). So that is a (1/2)*(1/2) =1/4 probability of winning both matches.

 

Plymouth had to not win both matches. If we assume that they had a 50% chance of winning each match it was again 1/4 of them winning both, so 1-(1/4) = 3/4 that they would fail in winning both (good enough for the skates).

 

Bristol Rovers had to not win either of their last two matches. If we assume 50% they would draw or lose a match, that's (1/2)*(1/2) = 1/4 probability to fail to win either.

 

Finally Oxford to lose one and at best draw their other match: so LL, LD or DL would suffice. Assuming 1/4 chance of L and 1/4 chance of D, that gives 3*(1/4)*(1/4) = 3/16.

 

So for all of these to occur we have (1/4)*(3/4)*(1/4)*(3/16) = 9/1024 probability, i.e. odds of about 114/1. Now you could argue that the above estimates are too generous for the skates, but at worst maybe 200/1. Also note I have for simplicity ignored the possibility of Accrington losing both matches, which would improve the odds a bit.

 

So for Mr. Fry odds of a couple of hundred to one are equivalent to "never going to happen." And since it didn't actually happen that's "proof". But, for those of us in the real world, we knew the skates had an outside chance before Saturday's matches.

 

It reminds me of a conference I once went to. A physicist gave a talk (on mathematics) which was based on an incorrect assumption. I politely tried to explain that to him during question time, but he belligerently asserted it was true (without any proof). Afterwards one of my colleagues called his a "proof by aggression".

This is football.

 

When your team needs to win all their matches and you still need a whole sweep of fixtures for multiple clubs across multiple weeks to all happen then you are in the realms of "obviously not going to happen".

 

You can furiously chalk on your blackboard a billion and one little formulas like Good Will Hunting if you like but only one of us was dumb enough to think that all the teams 3-5 in L2 were all simultaneously going to collapse in form to miraculously let Pompey stroll to promotion. All of them. And you were dumb enough.

 

Obviously wasn't going to happen and didn't.

 

It's called perspective.

Edited by CB Fry
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Another myth is being written!

Rather than taking the 76 reunion as a reunion, they are selling it to each other as a sad celebration by the club that demanded an open bus tour all around the city.

Sorry skates, it was a reunion, and it was cool for the players to travel on the original bus from the guildhall to the ground as part of the nostalgia.

That's what happens when you pay the cup final team, they look back fondly on the day and come back to see you.

How many players from 2008 will be rolling up for a reunion?....about the same number of creditors that got paid in full.

 

And this coming from people who get excited every year about the time that Norris scored at St Mary's to earn the mighty blues a battling draw that halted our promotion and kept them up...sort of.

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This is football.

 

When your team needs to win all their matches and you still need a whole sweep of fixtures for multiple clubs across multiple weeks to all happen then you are in the realms of "obviously not going to happen".

 

You can furiously chalk on your blackboard a billion and one little formulas like Good Will Hunting if you like but only one of us was dumb enough to think that all the teams 3-5 in L2 were all simultaneously going to collapse in form to miraculously let Pompey stroll to promotion. All of them. And you were dumb enough.

 

Obviously wasn't going to happen and didn't.

 

It's called perspective.

 

Also, I hate when people say, usually in gameshows and reality TV, there is a e.g. 50% chance to win or lose, because there are two contestants. no, your chances aren't 50% because the other person is generally better, higher IQ, or fitter than you, so your chances are not 50:50. If I went in the ring with Mike Tyson, I would not have a 50:50 chance of winning a fight.

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Im pretty sure everyone understands this. I'm surprised you dont understand that.

 

"It was never going to happen" is a rhetorical device - not an absolute declaration of probability. To all intents and purposes odds of 200-1 - once every two hundred years on average - means its never going to happen.

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I'm fairly sure there's no more Leicester-y a club than Saints. Both relegated to League One in the late 2000s, recovered from administration when bought by rich owner, have recruited well without splashing the cash. Both promoted back to the Prem in the early/mid 2010s, both finished bottom half in first season back, very similar ground and capacity, similar sized cities.

 

The only similarities between Leicester and Portsmouth are wearing blue and racist orgies.

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Im pretty sure everyone understands this. I'm surprised you dont understand that.

 

"It was never going to happen" is a rhetorical device - not an absolute declaration of probability. To all intents and purposes odds of 200-1 - once every two hundred years on average - means its never going to happen.

That part's true, but it's an opinion, not a fact. (Your last sentence is just your opinion). And most people use it if the odds against are astronomical, but not 200/1. In August Leicester winning the league at 5000/1 was "never going to happen" for many people.

 

When we beat Plymouth in L1 in the second to last match, we all celebrated going up, even though Huddersfield were only 3 points behind with one match left. That's because they needed to overcome something like a 19 goal difference: it was never going to happen. I never buy lottery tickets, because although I could theoretically win, as far as I'm concerned it would never happen. But I don't tell those that do buy them that they're wrong.

 

Anyway, enough of this tedium. I'm at stage 6 now, goodnight:

 

Munster vs. Fry.

n70f8o.jpg

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Meanwhile on POL they are having a go at Bournemouth for apparently cheating their way to the promotion by overspending...

 

Luckily I had just swallowed my mouthful of Red Wine before I read that ...... wouldn't want to waste any wine FFS.

 

The absolute barefaced cheek of those sisterbothering retards simply defies logic. Sadly it doesn't surprise me though!! Any classic quotes for us to enjoy?

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That part's true, but it's an opinion, not a fact. (Your last sentence is just your opinion). And most people use it if the odds against are astronomical, but not 200/1. In August Leicester winning the league at 5000/1 was "never going to happen" for many people.

 

Everyday language isnt the same as a statisticians conference. People make statements to convey succinctly what they think. If you had to preface every statement with 20 minutes of riders, qualifications, disclaimers and a third party analysis of probability then human conversation / the human race would die out.

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That part's true, but it's an opinion, not a fact. (Your last sentence is just your opinion). And most people use it if the odds against are astronomical, but not 200/1. In August Leicester winning the league at 5000/1 was "never going to happen" for many people.

 

When we beat Plymouth in L1 in the second to last match, we all celebrated going up, even though Huddersfield were only 3 points behind with one match left. That's because they needed to overcome something like a 19 goal difference: it was never going to happen. I never buy lottery tickets, because although I could theoretically win, as far as I'm concerned it would never happen. But I don't tell those that do buy them that they're wrong.

 

Anyway, enough of this tedium. I'm at stage 6 now, goodnight:

 

Munster vs. Fry.

n70f8o.jpg

I'll just repeat my final phrase from the last post.

 

It's called perspective.

 

Thanks for supporting comments from others here. We're done.

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[QUOT=trousers;2331845]And, so it begins...

 

http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/football/pompey/pompey-can-take-inspiration-from-leicester-1-7362195

 

PMSL, what a load of old sh!te.

 

:mcinnes:

 

PMSL, what a load of old sh!te.

 

Yep. The headline is "Pompey can take inspiration from Leicester". A big whoosh as they totally miss the point about Leicester's success.

 

The primary cause of Pompey's downfall was trying to buy success. They're still doing it now in Lg2 and still failing - failing miserably. They only reached the playoffs in their second year of the bottom tier, despite having spent many times the resources of most of their rivals.

 

Leicester have been successful through buying cheaply and smartly and moulding them into a team who put in maximum effort for each other week in week out - the PL equivalent of Accrington or Northampton. Thats the opposite of Pompey - failing to turn up half the time when its raining / not glamorous enough / the crowd are on their back.

Edited by buctootim
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Luckily I had just swallowed my mouthful of Red Wine before I read that ...... wouldn't want to waste any wine FFS.

 

The absolute barefaced cheek of those sisterbothering retards simply defies logic. Sadly it doesn't surprise me though!! Any classic quotes for us to enjoy?

 

Not just Bournemouth who are cheating, but Leicester too...

 

Take Leicester and the murky dealings regarding Tresteller minimising their losses. If they are found guilty they will get the FFP fine, but the chances of them getting relegated soon is a long shot now. They are in the premier league for the next few seasons unless they have a villa style breakdown. How long do you hold a points deduction over them.

 

Until the FL,Fa and PL start working together you will see the same happening time and time again.

 

If they worked in cohesion, you could say well Bournemouth are guilty of breaking the championship FFP to get promoted, So as of the next season regardless of what league they are in, they face a 5point dedeuction.

 

But then that means the PL having some kind of FFP and that wont happen

 

I'm also surprised that brought our debt up yet either

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PMSL, what a load of old sh!te.

 

They're funny though, the delusions of grandeur remain

 

The simple formula that they espouse, of being able to unearth future England players from the lower divisions (another Ricky Lambert, anyone?) and to get their team to meld together into a hard-working and disciplined unit in order to replicate Leicester's success, is only missing a couple of other key ingredients. Leicester have a very wealthy owner and a decent stadium and infrastructure facilities like ours in order to attract the calibre of manager like Claudio Ranieri and some decent players.

 

They have conveniently overlooked the grade two listed, century before last stadium, the so-called high net worth individuals whose collective wealth still makes them "cheap-skates" and the fact that no manager of any real potential is going to take up the challenge of attempting to revive the rotting corpse that they believe is the sleeping giant of English football.

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The next instalment on their views of our season.....

 

the season that will go down as one where Incester took advantage of the medium-longterm problems or rebuilding of ManUre, arsenal, Chelski, Citeh and arguably Liverpool, where were Scum at the business end of the season?

 

20 points behind, getting excited about the only cup they won....4 decades ago.

 

Pathetic.

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...where were Scum at the business end of the season?...

 

...ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea in the league for a start.

 

In related news, Pompey are a mere 18 points behind the league leaders in L2.

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Where are scum?

66 league places away.

 

 

 

 

International tax-evasion news -

Harry Redknapp got off to a shaky start in his latest position as Central Coast Mariners’ “football consultant” with the experienced English coach getting the name of his new club wrong in a radio interview and indicating he would not be visiting Australia in his new role.

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The next instalment on their views of our season.....

 

the season that will go down as one where Incester took advantage of the medium-longterm problems or rebuilding of ManUre, arsenal, Chelski, Citeh and arguably Liverpool, where were Scum at the business end of the season?

 

20 points behind, getting excited about the only cup they won....4 decades ago.

 

Pathetic.

 

...ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea in the league for a start.

 

In related news, Pompey are a mere 18 points behind the league leaders in L2.

 

lol. We're 7th in the PL, three points behind Man U and in contention for Europe. They're 5th in League 2 six points behind Accrington ffs and in contention for being overtaken by Eastleigh.

 

Where did it all go wrong for us? :D

Edited by buctootim
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lol. We're 7th in the PL, three points behind Man U and in contention for Europe. They're 5th in League 2 six points behind Accrington ffs and in contention for being overtaken by Eastleigh.

 

Where did it all go wrong for us? :D

 

 

Yeah, absolutely pathetic being 7th in the Premier League and still in contention for 5th. Far more respectable to be unable to even get automatic promotion from League 2 for the 3rd consecutive year despite having by far the biggest fan base,

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Yep. The headline is "Pompey can take inspiration from Leicester". A big whoosh as they totally miss the point about Leicester's success.

 

The primary cause of Pompey's downfall was trying to buy success. They're still doing it now in Lg2 and still failing - failing miserably. They only reached the playoffs in their second year of the bottom tier, despite having spent many times the resources of most of their rivals.

 

Leicester have been successful through buying cheaply and smartly and moulding them into a team who put in maximum effort for each other week in week out - the PL equivalent of Accrington or Northampton. Thats the opposite of Pompey - failing to turn up half the time when its raining / not glamorous enough / the crowd are on their back.

 

Leicester cheated their way out of the Championship with dodgy sponsorship and naming rights deals, actually, with a wage bill in excess of their turnover.

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Leicester cheated their way out of the Championship with dodgy sponsorship and naming rights deals, actually, with a wage bill in excess of their turnover.

 

The 'dodgy' amount of extra income in question is £11m, and the penalty for overspending would only have been a fine anyway. Its small beer compared with the Brighton owner paying for a £100m stadium and multi million training ground - or Pompey owners spending £120m on the team that they had stolen from elswhere.

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Not just Bournemouth who are cheating, but Leicester too...

 

I'm also surprised that brought our debt up yet either

 

Again the failure to be able to quote quotes means I have to type "that means the PL having some kind of FFP and that won't happen" before I can absolutely take the p155 out of the Skate for failing to realise that the Premier League voted for FFP back when Cortese was still Saints Chairman, (he voted against it because presumably he'd already planned on spending Markus' legacy without asking anyone else and didn't want the massive influx of cash to be hampered by exactly the kind of controls that the Skate thinks don't exist, On balance I think the Prem is right to have the regulations, but the implementation of them is completely unfair - though "But Leicester" is the comeback for that one too).

 

Anyway, here's an easy to read guide: http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/financial-fair-play-explained.php

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The next instalment on their views of our season.....

 

the season that will go down as one where Incester took advantage of the medium-longterm problems or rebuilding of ManUre, arsenal, Chelski, Citeh and arguably Liverpool, where were Scum at the business end of the season?

 

20 points behind, getting excited about the only cup they won....4 decades ago.

 

Pathetic.

 

At least we have won an FA cup in our 'history', they haven't, as they have a history of but a few short years, the club/team they boast about, whet out of business.

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Ah, I'm afraid you are wrong there because apparently the spirit of the team lived on in the hearts of the bestest and that's what counts. Something far more important than mere bankruptcy and ceasing to exist as a company can ever destroy.

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