winning the 4 team mini league relegation lottery
put forward your 4 contestants
not particularly in that order!!!
I think plymouth will be down here with us too
If we win this mini league we should get a special medal and a bye until the third round of The Freight Rover South Trophy as we could be playing Torquay in it soon.
Has that trophy changed its name to paint or summink?
We will be winners soon again or not.
Hmm last game of the season Forest away. Oo-er!
must win game?
Originally Posted by Huffton
No need to panic.
Originally Posted by Huffton
We'll have been relegated long before then :roll:
thought we would lose tonight and win Saturday.
Just done BBC championship predictor for Saturday and we are 15th!
Last edited by NickG; 18-09-2008 at 07:05 AM.
no ground lost on forest or barnsley
point gained on doncaster who also shipped -3 on goal difference
I agree we are in deep sh*t with three others but not sure about the teams. Latest relegation odds would suggest Forest and Doncaster are in stronger position. Another big game on Saturday away at Doncaster!
Originally Posted by gjphilsaint
4 Nottm Forest
You may be right but until we are well away from at least the bottom 3 I shall endeavour to assess every game/week against those teams either below us or directly above us. I include Doncaster because I believe they will be near the bottom come the end of season.
I will be happy to ditch this thread if we ever pull away from the danger zone for long enough.
Forest losing at half time so a potential point gained but no loss or gain on barnsley or Donny as it stands right now.
It's probably a bit early in the season to be making that sort of prediction.
For instance last season at the end of November, the bottom 4 was:
Blackpool, QPR, Preston, Norwich
At the end of the season the bottom 4 was:
Coventry, Leicester, S****horpe, Colchester
I.e completely different.
This league is ridiculously unpredictable. All it takes is a run of a few good / bad results for the league to change completely.
I know the vast majority on here seem to think the season is over already, but the truth is, it's barely begun.
gains all round...
3 pts from donny
3pt gain on forest
2 pt gain on barnsley.
Officially "A good day." Palace game pending for league position... gain of either 1 or 2 places.
Originally Posted by madruss
Someone will fall into the relegation mix after being in apparent mid-table safety in January..just as we did last season.
Someone will suddenly appear from off the radar for a play off place at the end...just like I'm hoping we will this season
what a difference a win makes and that is good. But as I posted earlier in this thread until we start getting the results to keep us away from the drop zone, I shall continue to watch and post. Feel free to add a "watch" on any other relegation contenders...
Palace came from no where last season. We can live in hope.
Originally Posted by Badger
yes we can!
Originally Posted by Le Goddard
Signs of improvement:
Any result that puts us on level points with another team, who we then go above because of goal difference. So... Watford need monitoring, as do Swansea and Derby. Teams out of reach mid week are any team from 10th or above. Not bad really.
However any heavy defeat by Saints and healthly wins from those below us (4 teams .. probability in our favour) and we can still be bottom by the end of mid week.
Some tough away fixtures for some of our nearest rivals.
A very good round of fixtures for saints...
3 pts gained on all 3 bottom teams. Also gained on goal diff donny +4, barnsley +5, Forest +3.
Now 4 pys off the rele zone and some 5 other teams between us and that line.
Whilst saints can drop as far as 21st next round of games, we can also look realistically at challenging teams as high as 7th.
next game : will leapfrog Cov if we beat them.
Note: next set of games
Barns v Donny
Forest v Palace
Norwich v Derby.
all these teams below us... if results go our way then a healthy gap could be opening for us...
Overall: an outstanding day!!!
Thread name changing percentage score: 40%
OK pop pickers here's this weeks analysis...
Barnsley pick up 3pts on saints also gain +6 goal difference on us.
Doncaster make no change as they lose with same score.
Forest also lose but gain +1 goal difference over us.
C.Palace gain 3pts and +5 goal difference on us.
Saints drop down to 20th. Last weeks efforts meant we could not go lower this week, but there we are again back in the real mix... even Norwich losing is tempered by the fact that our loss still gives them +2 goal difference gain this week.
All of our main rivals (except Doncaster) down at the basement have made some form of gain on us this week.
Next set of fixtures
Bristol City v Norwich,
Crystal Palace v Barnsley, 17:20
Derby v Plymouth, 15:00
Doncaster v Blackpool, 15:00
Ipswich v Swansea, 15:00
Preston v Reading, 15:00
QPR v Nottm Forest, 15:00
Southampton v Watford,
If Saints lose and Barnsley win and Norwich get at least a draw next set of games Saints are back in the bottom 3. If everything goes Saints way next set of games we can aim as high as 12th/13th.
Overall: a very poor day!!!
Thread name changing percentage score: 5% (if it carries on like this its going to be a very long season)
Dull and negative post, do you need a push....
weekly update... check out last weeks and compare. Now... I wonder why the change of tone... hmmm... do you think tomorrows papers will still be "bright and positive" following tonights game???
Originally Posted by monkadill
You could look it that way, or if we had won today we would have gone 10th, and coventry started with 1 point more, and went 6th. Early days.
as i said last week ... as win against Cov...
Originally Posted by Nexstar
It is what it is...
Forest lose again so they do not gain points on us
barnsley lose by the Same margin as we do...
Donny gain a point on us...
and norwich also fail to gain any points on us....
Some gains by Donny, Forest & Norwich with goal difference...
Despite the awful result and the circumstances that surround it, Saints did not lose much ground on our relegation rivals.. if we are going to lose perhaps to do so on a weekend when the rest do puts it in perspective.
But... gaps are now beginning to form, our goal difference continues to go into negative equity...and now in the next round of games we can only reasonably expect to get as high as 17th.
It appears our options in terms of expectations are now narrowing.. but at least the other teams around us are as poor as we are.
Tuesday, 21 October 2008
Barnsley v Sheff Wed, 19:45
Blackpool v Derby, 19:45
Charlton v Bristol City, 19:45
Norwich v Wolverhampton, 19:45
Nottm Forest v Ipswich, 19:45
Reading v Doncaster, 20:00
Sheff Utd v Southampton, 19:45
Possible points for barnsley & Blackpool other than that can see any of us picking up points.. the gap will merely widen
Overall: results make today statistically "bearable" but the performance and its implications send continued tsunami type waves to crush our confidence and belief.
Thread name changing percentage score: 5% (same as last week.. no change)
Well your mate seems to be doing a decent job there despite having no money and having to sell their best players. Sound familiar?
Originally Posted by Thedelldays
strange someconsidered this thread negative this week was not as bad as others have been since rivals did badly too, but it appears thenature of the loss is the real concern.
OK first off...
lose ground to barnsley their gain (2pts)
gain ground on charlton their loss (1pt)
Lose ground on Norwich their gain (2pts)
no change on forest
gain ground on Doncaster their loss (1pt)
Saints slip to 21st....
could go bottom 3 next game
could go as high as 18th max
gap continues to close between low position and highest
a good away point (so many saying would have taken that at the start)
a clean sheet (always an encouraging sign)
JP picks a more "experienced" side suggesting that more able/established players are now prepared or being allowed to play in vital positions.
Overall: current climate suggests a good set of games, as long as we also pick up a few "freak" results against strong teams a la Norwich/Wolves (not that we have a Lita in our ranks!!)
Thread factor : 7% (clean sheet cause for optimism??)
Swansea 3 Southampton 0
Norwich gain 3 pts
Barnsley gain 1 pts
No points gain for Donny & Forest but we lose further -2 goal difference on them
Highest we can expect next round of games, realistically (because of such poor goal diff) is 20th but cant go lower than we are now.
Having loaned a proven goal scorer because we cant afford to play him whilst being unable to score goals ourselves: 1 goal scored and 10 conceded in last few games is a very worrying trend.
Although still plenty of time left in the season it appears to me that our mini league is beginning to take its predicted shape.
Positives... well we do have players to come back to play, but most of them are long term injuries or just plain crocked.
negatives: to many to mention all
JP says: "We need to turn the boys into men and that is all about confidence."
Zero confidence and turning men into boys as he says takes a life time. Is there any life left in this club??
Overall: very poor round of games mini league contestants are shaping up and soon, all we can hope for is 21st place..the "mini league relegation lottery".
Just how bad are Doncaster/Forest & Barnsley? Are we any better?
Almost ready to discount Norwich & watford (the latter proven that they can thrash us at least, the former with a striker like Lita would fill his boots with us!!!)
Charlton... sound like us a few years back.. but likely to score hatfuls against our defence... which leaves just 3 teams...
Thread factor : 1%
Excuse my Spanish, but what the f**k is this thread on about?
It is keeping tabs on those teams that may be relegated and is proving the point that from day 1 we were in a relegation fight... if you do not like this thread (it has over 1000 hits) then look somewhere else. Perhaps try starting a "Saints for Europe" thread...
Originally Posted by Deano6
The facts are we are in a relegation fight.. always have been this season... there are a number of teams likely to be in it with us, I am keeping tabs on them and whilst the early contenders numbered approx 9 it is clearly fleshing out into 4 or 5 clubs for the drop... US included. Each set of games is therefore analysed against the fortunes of our real rivals.
Does that make things clearer?
Perhaps this round of games is significant because of the real significance a win would have brought. Back into the pack closing in on Palace/Watford/Norwich/Charlton.. a Forest loss would have started to open a gap from the bottom 2...instead....
Forest close the gap on us as they gain 2 points over us....
Barnsley do the same and now thwey threaten to open a gap from us...
Norwich/Palace both a bit jittery and we gain 1pt on them (but are they real relegation contenders???)
Overall: a round of missed opportunities, if we had held onto the lead v Cov... lots of ifs...
A trend is emerging as bottom 3rd teams are putting together results then spoiling it.. as for saints... scrapping for the odd point here and there and given our next few games we need one of those rogue results (ala Norwich/Wolves) to go in our favour.
Is it just me or do others sense a gap starting to emerge.
Thread factor 0%... we are in this relegation mix for the long term... do we have what it takes to finish 21st?
Highest realistic position from next set of games...19th but if we win handsomely and Norwich lose heavily we could go 18th .. like I say "realistically".
L*w*st possible position after next round....22nd .. no change! (small mercy)
We could be out of the bottom 3 IF WE WIN AND there is a winner from Charlton/Barnsley game...
Last edited by gjphilsaint; 29-10-2008 at 02:42 PM.
Reason: new data
Saturday, 1 November 2008
Burnley v Norwich, 15:00
Charlton v Barnsley, 15:00
Crystal Palace v Sheff Wed, 15:00
Doncaster v Swansea, 15:00
Preston v Southampton, 15:00
Watford v Blackpool, 15:00
Sunday, 2 November 2008
Derby v Nottm Forest, 13:15
A good round of games and for plenty of reasons!!
1. Saints won!!
2. The manner of the win – a comeback no less, suggests that for the first time this season, it appears that this team has some backbone which is going to be needed this season!
3. The potential of new players Gobern & Pearce (the latter only a loanee)
Saints gain 3pts on Norwich and are now level with them on points
Saints gain 3pts on Charlton and Watford who we now overtake (a rarity but another good indicator)
Saints gain 2pts on Palace (who are now only a point ahead of us) Forest and Doncaster.
No gain on Barnsley who also win (but no loss either!!)
The win allows Saints to jump 2 places out of the relegation zone into 20th place.
We can now look as high as 15th/16th in the next round of games.
The lowest we can go is 22nd (bottom 3).
Our next game is v Bristol City at home (on Sky). Here’s hoping that we perform on TV better than we did v Blackpool after performing so well away at Derby.
Thread factor: 16% based on the potential we have. We now need to turn good wins into a habit of winning and not getting ****y about how good we were based on the last match (a la Blackpool). But a real improvement!
Last edited by gjphilsaint; 02-11-2008 at 03:22 PM.
Reason: see below ty St martini
Correct me if I'm wrong but Forest got a point and we got a win so how do we only gain 1 point of Forest?:confused:
Latest relegation odds (in decimal form, i.e. Saints are just over 2/1) suggest Watford may be joining our mini league
Surprised Blackpool are in this as they're quite strong these days (now the players have gelled) and Charlton must surely be dragged deeper into our scrap. More so if the rumours are true that Charlton cannot afford to sack Pardew as he would have 18 months salary to pick up. Barnsley have improved but think they are poor and will have a bad run soon. Norwich are another Jekyll & Hyde outfit and I would (happily) have them in the mini-relegation league. Palace also seem to be struggling from one game to the next so could also be dragged into it.
Originally Posted by KK the 2nd
Now I've put all that down I'm glad it's not as cut and dried as an 'any three from these four for relegation' situation. It's still tighter than a ducks chuff!
OK I have been of t`internet whilst switching to Virgin for last 10 days, since which we have lost to both Bristol C and Wolves (which does undo the feats at Preston I guess)
Huge result for Barnsley especially as their win was against a fellow struggler (Watford)
barnsley gain 3pts on Saints ... as do Doncaster!!
Forest gain a point
but no change (ie gain or loss) from Watford/Palace/Norwich/Charlton and Coventry!!
Considering our game was v Wolves (and many predicted a huge score!!) the result was not the massacre many expected.
Positives??? well the others lost too I guess... we didnt ship tons of goals...
So little change... and as the recent posts remark.. there are still plenty of teams down here with us.
Thread factor: 10%
Oh dear... I know I have neglected this thread, to be honest I just cant face the reality of it all. Somehow I expected to be able to chronicle the rise of a team away from this so called "lottery". Sadly it seems our chances of "Escaping the lottery of relegation" are lessening almost every game.
So to sum it up... since my last post we have lost at home to Forest... been taken over by both Donny and Forest and now lie 2nd from bottom with the worst goal difference of all those around us. To add to this we have not won at SMS in the 6 weeks since my last post.
You have done a great job in the past and must be congratulated for your effort..
Originally Posted by gjphilsaint
Do not be too despondent...I still have my mate, Sam Aritan phone number if you think it would help..Been good for me all season.
Don't give up but to be on the safe side, suggest, a three league compo from now on.
Happy New Year.
Derby, thankfully, are in freefall. We will soon find them down here with us. And at least Forest's win brings Nowrich back within reach. All is not lost. The days may be dark and cold, but a flicker of hope remains...
probably 3 from the following...
17 Blackpool 25 -7 30
18 Derby 26 -9 29
19 Watford 26 -6 27
20 Norwich 26 -10 26
21 Nottm Forest 26 -12 24
22 Doncaster 26 -14 24
23 Southampton 26 -18 23
24 Charlton 26 -17 19
If Charlton are experiencing what has been happening to us then they may not be able to get out of this mess. I truly believe at least 2 from Forest, Donny and saints will go down... the question is which 2? Obviously my feelings/despondancy for saints clouds my judgement (one week I feel the power of survival, the next we will never win another game) BUT the "Barnsley factor" is important, they seemed sure fire relegation contenders and now it appears to me that they could be out of the equation... There are tooo many ex prem teams that are in financial do-do down here to make any of this easily predictable... quite honestly which of the teams involved have the resources too survive. My conclusion is that despite the fact that we are not getting the results, there are plenty of other teams in similar predicaments suggesting that it will not be over by easter, there are too many poorly managed sides involved (both tactically & financially)...
I agre Nowich will be down there and have felt so all season. Another team will also go into freefall before the season ends, and I don't think Watford are out of the woods. Gonna be interestin......
3pts (against all the odds) gives us a gain on Norwich, Watford & Charlton (also include Donny who didnt play 2pts ahead with a game in hand)... we keep in touch with Forest who also won.
But we are still in the bottom 3... yet despite the position, tonight it doesnt feel desperate... why is that?
Importantly... the win was huge.. obviously... not just because it was 3 pts nicked (classic smash & grab), but because it now puts us right in amongst our rivals... if we had lost (or even drawn) the situation really would be dire. We are matching Forest (who are enjoying a burst from gaining a new manager) , clearly the form team down at the bottom... it stops us losing the pace and allowing a gap to form.
But as so many have said on other threads, we must build on this result...improve our results at home and see off Doncaster in the net game , open up a gap between us and the bottom 2 and get a decent run going.
Will the 2 recent transfers bolster our defence sufficiently to make us stronger... will JP employ a striker who can net a fair return (is Saga the man to do it??)
Despite being bottom 3 there appears hope... away from SMS at least!!