UKIP defector triggers Clacton by-election

Europe continues to be as divisive as ever amongst Tories.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-defects-tory-mp-byelection

Douglas Carswell has quit the party, resigned his seat and will fight for it as a UKIP candidate in the upcoming by-election.

Will UKIP get its first Westminster MP elected?

Is it just me or do all UKIP candidates look unhinged?

Is it just me or do all UKIP candidates look unhinged?

That's the shot from the Guardian's site. They're not keen

Is it just me or do all UKIP candidates look unhinged?

No.

I think he has a habit of shooting himself in the foot. He was the one who instigated the enquiry into MPs' expenses and then was found to have breached the rules

During the 2009 expenses scandal, the Daily Telegraph published his expenses showing he had claimed, amongst other things, a £655 'love seat'^[26] and had flipped his second home to avoid capital gains taxation.

Carswell admitted to expensing "an armchair, sofa and some bedding, as well as a few other modest items of crockery and furniture" but claimed that he could justify these expenses.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Carswell

Looks like a battle of the 2 consertive party's are going to hand the next election to labour by default.

What's a love seat?

One of the fellas I work with is some sort of big wig in one of the local tory constituencies and he's just said that Carswell wins then the floodgates could well open as other tory MPs do their maths ahead of a general election.

One of the fellas I work with is some sort of big wig in one of the local tory constituencies and he's just said that Carswell wins then the floodgates could well open as other tory MPs do their maths ahead of a general election.

Which would also trash any shred of credibility that our political process has, if MPs defect purely based on their own selfish needs, and not the policies and morals that they feel they should represent. Not that I would be surprised either.

Which would also trash any shred of credibility that our political process has, if MPs defect purely based on their own selfish needs, and not the policies and morals that they feel they should represent. Not that I would be surprised either.

Hmmm, although it's always been the same - Churchill was a Liberal. In the main politicians have always been in it to further themselves although there are a few who see it as a vocation. I think a lot of Tories probably do actually believe in at least a UKIP stance and maybe even their policies so possibly it's a disservice to Carswell. No doubt an increase in electoral chances helps make up their minds though.

Fair points.

I personally think we should do away with having candidates for individual constituencies - parties should put forward their policies and proposed cabinet, and we should vote on that... plenty of other changes too, but haven't got time or inclination to put it all here. Suffice to say that I think the whole thing needs ripping up.

Which would also trash any shred of credibility that our political process has, if MPs defect purely based on their own selfish needs, and not the policies and morals that they feel they should represent. Not that I would be surprised either.

That's why he resigned his seat. An honourable thing to do. Most "turncoats " continue as mp for their new party , not the party that they were elected for. He's seeking a new mandate , shouldn't be critisied for that

Which would also trash any shred of credibility that our political process has, if MPs defect purely based on their own selfish needs, and not the policies and morals that they feel they should represent. Not that I would be surprised either.

isnt he giving everyone else the chance to beat him?

he has made it clear where his position is and re-opened the race as a result?

isnt he giving everyone else the chance to beat him?

he has made it clear where his position is and re-opened the race as a result?

Yup. As Lord D points out, his defection carries more democratic legitimacy this way. The only way UKIP gets an MP is if people elect one. Fair enough, imo.

What's a love seat?

Just a two-person (ie small) sofa. Nothing to get excited about.

It seems to be all the rage this 'defection to UKIP' malarkey....

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/21/Labour-stalwart-defects-to-ukip

http://www.barkinganddagenhampost.co.uk/news/politics/fourth_labour_councillor_defects_to_ukip_in_barking_and_dagenham_1_3434332

http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/Northampton-Labour-councillor-defects-UKIP/story-21674314-detail/story.html

http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/mobile/news-full?ID=85443&cat=8

It seems to be all the rage this 'defection to UKIP' malarkey....

 

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/21/Labour-stalwart-defects-to-ukip

 

http://www.barkinganddagenhampost.co.uk/news/politics/fourth_labour_councillor_defects_to_ukip_in_barking_and_dagenham_1_3434332

 

http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/Northampton-Labour-councillor-defects-UKIP/story-21674314-detail/story.html

 

http://www.oldham-chronicle.co.uk/mobile/news-full?ID=85443&cat=8

It's a novel thing for a drowning rat to leave a sinking ship to land on a bandwagon...:-

Amongst other things he's stated that his position changed after having a meeting with Cameron's advisers where he came to the conclusion the referendum was not out of genuine intentions to change the UK's relationship with the EU, but instead to just use it as a election campaign tool to get back in (shock).

Some on here obviously won't give him any credit- but the man could have opted for the safe option of running again for the Tories, he's instead followed his principles and taken on a huge challenge whilst doing so. Fair play to him. The other clear reason for him leaving , like a lot of Tories, he's fed up of the way the party is out of touch with its grassroots supporters and seemingly run by a cleek of people who have no principles other than getting reelected.

One of the fellas I work with is some sort of big wig in one of the local tory constituencies and he's just said that Carswell wins then the floodgates could well open as other tory MPs do their maths ahead of a general election.

I don't know about this- would it not look fickle/timid of MP's to watch from the sidelines and then jump on board once they are more confident of getting in?

I think Carswell has generally gained lots of support because his move looks bold and a bit of a 'principled gamble'.

I don't know about this- would it not look fickle/timid of MP's to watch from the sidelines and then jump on board once they are more confident of getting in?

I think Carswell has generally gained lots of support because his move looks bold and a bit of a 'principled gamble'.

Was listening to local radio and his 'principled gamble' sounded more like 'I'm going to lose this to UKIP...if you can't beat them etc' from both local parties.

I think each will get what they deserve from this.

Was listening to local radio and his 'principled gamble' sounded more like 'I'm going to lose this to UKIP...if you can't beat them etc' from both local parties.

 

I think each will get what they deserve from this.

I think he's very popular locally though, and as he's a staunch Eurosceptic who wants controlled borders, a smaller state etc, a lot of potential UKIP voters would have continued to back him even if he stayed blue.

Clacton is ideal UKIP territory though - old, white and poor.

Clacton is ideal UKIP territory though - old, white and poor.

The way some describe our country, and what the govt have done, ukip should clean up then

Just got in from the game and I see Nigel has ****ed on Dave's chips again. Another defector and rumours on the internet that there's going to be another one on the eve of Dave's conference speech.

Just got in from the game and I see Nigel has ****ed on Dave's chips again. Another defector and rumours on the internet that there's going to be another one on the eve of Dave's conference speech.

And another one quitting the cabinet because he got photographed his todger and sent it to women (a Sunday Mirror sting apparently). And a Bishop resigning because he's been a naughty boy.

We're doomed I tell 'ee - doomed.

So UKIP has its first MP in Clacton. Fair play to Carswell; sought a mandate from the public there, which is more than you can say for most.

The other by-election was interesting too. UKIP missed out on snaffling a safe Labour seat by a paltry 617 votes. Off the back of the result, Farage has claimed that UKIP are now Labour's main opposition in northern cities.

The other by-election was interesting too. UKIP missed out on snaffling a safe Labour seat by a paltry 617 votes. Off the back of the result, Farage has claimed that UKIP are now Labour's main opposition in northern cities.

TBF, in Heywood&Middleton Labour's share of the vote went up, marginally, in a low turn out, ( possibly less than 30% ). It was the Tories ( down from 27% to 12% ) and the LDs ( down from 23% to 5% ) that seem to have enabled the swing to UKIP ( up 36% ).

The only thing looking nailed on for the General Election is that the Lib Dems are going to be decimated, they will be in no coalition with anyone. Probably hold on to a handful of seats and be back to 1980s levels of 10/12 seats.

Will be interesting to see if Clegg, propped up by student votes in Sheffield in 2010, keeps his seat. There's your 2015 "Portillo moment" right there.

TBF, in Heywood&Middleton Labour's share of the vote went up, marginally, in a low turn out, ( possibly less than 30% ). It was the Tories ( down from 27% to 12% ) and the LDs ( down from 23% to 5% ) that seem to have enabled the swing to UKIP ( up 36% ).

I would have interpreted that differently. I would say some of the traditional labour vote shifted to UKIP, while the Labour vote was topped up with disaffected Lib Dems. The Tory vote inevitably migrated to UKIP.

The only thing looking nailed on for the General Election is that the Lib Dems are going to be decimated, they will be in no coalition with anyone. Probably hold on to a handful of seats and be back to 1980s levels of 10/12 seats.

 

Will be interesting to see if Clegg, propped up by student votes in Sheffield in 2010, keeps his seat. There's your 2015 "Portillo moment" right there.

I think that you will probably find in a lot of Lib Dem seats the local MP is well liked and there vote in many of their seats will hold up better than people think.

I think that you will probably find in a lot of Lib Dem seats the local MP is well liked and there vote in many of their seats will hold up better than people think.

This is what I've heard. The predictions seem to be that the Lib Dems will lose about half their seats - which by any measure is a hell of a price to pay for propping up a Conservative government for a few years.

So UKIP has its first MP in Clacton. Fair play to Carswell; sought a mandate from the public there, which is more than you can say for most.

 

The other by-election was interesting too. UKIP missed out on snaffling a safe Labour seat by a paltry 617 votes. Off the back of the result, Farage has claimed that UKIP are now Labour's main opposition in northern cities.

Maybe not in the major cities (Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds), but in large northern towns, UKIP are probably going to be the only serious opposition for Labour.

Watching the coverage this morning, and it's exciting and depressing in equal measure; great to see a chunk of the electorate engaged and truly excited about something, great to see the "Westminster" parties on the back foot, great to think that UKIP's rise might mean that we see a change in the way we're treated by careerist politicians.

Farage said that the result represented a sea-change in the way we do politics in the UK; a message to Westminster career politicians that are out of touch with real people. Things will never be the same again he promised. He and Carswell were both full of smiles, shot-from-the-hip remarks, sound-bites and bonhomie.

Then the next minute you see Carswell and Farage being hounded by the press about an apparent contradiction between Farage's position on immigrants with HIV trying to the enter the UK, and Carswell's own father who was at the forefront of research into AIDS. The press, rather lamely I have to say, tried to show a difference in their respective positions. The result? Farage went off on one about it being a ridiculous question from "a state broadcaster" and Carswell clammed up and saying "I agree with everything my leader just said and I have no further comment". It was an instant return to the traditional politics of Westminster where our politicians are afraid to debate things and offer an opinion.

That isn't me having a particular "go" at Farage and Carswell for their apparent hypocrisy, instead it's more damning of the press and how their approach to grilling and trying to trip up our politicians has led to them becoming on-message puppets, driven by focus groups, and controlled centrally by party spin doctors.

Having said all that, I thought Carswell came over very well indeed in his acceptance speech, as well as the off the cuff interview he gave this morning in the middle of a media scrum. He somewhat unexpectedly told the UKIP faithful that they must be inclusive of others so that they do not appear xenophobic, and then just as the media took these comments as a sign that he was interfering in party strategy and therefore might be positioning himself as a future leader, he promptly ruled himself out of ever being leader in the most unequivocal and self-effacing way.

He said something along the lines of "I don't want to be leader of UKIP. I will never be leader of UKIP. I don't have the right personality or skills. If I were to be leader, it would be bad for me, bad for my family and bad for UKIP".

It "seems" as though he is a very principled man.

Larger questions remain: Is UKIP an ephemeral phenomena? Is this just a protest vote? Will we see the same UKIP performance in a general election? Will the traditional parties listen/learn/change?

I would have interpreted that differently. I would say some of the traditional labour vote shifted to UKIP, while the Labour vote was topped up with disaffected Lib Dems. The Tory vote inevitably migrated to UKIP.

That's a very insightful observation. You can be sure that Labour will focus on their overall increase in SoV though.

I'd argue it was a more interesting result than Clacton.

 

Maybe not in the major cities (Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds), but in large northern towns, UKIP are probably going to be the only serious opposition for Labour.

I'd agree.

At the Tory Party conference Cameron tried to position a vote for UKIP as a way of ending up with a Labour government. He said "go to bed with Farage and wake up with Miliband" or similar. I thought this was pretty smart piece of positioning at the time.

Farage this morning pointed out the opposite - that in the north if you vote Tory you'll get Labour; suggesting that the Heywood vote proved that the only way of unseating Labour is a UKIP vote. Another smart bit of positioning there.

This is no sea cahnge, UKIP have played some strong cards and may have a few left to play but they are running out. They will do well in the G, I predict 5 - 10 seats mostly from the tories that will be their high point. Farage has played the bloke than the pub charecter to its limit, but when really tested who is going to vote for the bloke down the pub. They have majored on the areas that generate the most reaction, the EU and immigration when their policies on the realy important areas are unpicked they are found wanting and Farage in particular turns into the worst type of politician when challenged on them.

I'd argue it was a more interesting result than Clacton.

 

Maybe not in the major cities (Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds), but in large northern towns, UKIP are probably going to be the only serious opposition for Labour.

I can see that. Places like Liverpool and Manchester are pretty charged politically. Liverpool has the two safest Labour seats in the country.

However it's places like Leigh and Wigan that could go UKIP. There are a lot of them about. Medium sized towns with strong local identities that are more likely to have noticed newcomers. Liverpool and Manchester are huge by comparison, more diverse and less likely to be alarmed (although I have noticed a sharp increase in racist taxi driver chat).

Larger questions remain: Is UKIP an ephemeral phenomena?

I think it is. UKIP has provided a home for those not represented elsewhere - those disaffected by Europe, immigration and career politicians. The mainstream parties will react and move to provide some fig leaf compromise policies whilst divisions will open up within UKIP over the mainstream issues of welfare, health, tax & spend etc. It will be like the SDP in the early 1980s and the Greens in the Euro elections all over again.

I can see that. Places like Liverpool and Manchester are pretty charged politically. Liverpool has the two safest Labour seats in the country.

 

However it's places like Leigh and Wigan that could go UKIP. There are a lot of them about. Medium sized towns with strong local identities that are more likely to have noticed newcomers. Liverpool and Manchester are huge by comparison, more diverse and less likely to be alarmed (although I have noticed a sharp increase in racist taxi driver chat).

Something like this?

Obviously, not condoning this

I was very impressed with Carswell, particularly his line that he believed in recall so much , that he recalled himself. A principled position and the people of Clacton rewarded him with a massive majority.

I see that the Establishment parties are all going to " listen and learn lessons " from this. How many times have we heard this pony. In Westminster " listen and learn lessons" means carrying on as before. The country is divided politically in a way I've never known before. Tories can't win in the north and labour can't win in the south except in a few select and small areas. Both major parties appear to be conducting a core vote strategy and ignoring the rest.

As for UKIP , I don't think this is the high point. Like the Nationalists in Scotland I think theyre here to stay. People like Patrick O Flynn, Diane James, Suzanne Evens and Paul Nuttall are starting to take the pressure off Nigel ,and Carswell will also help their profile. They need to quietly rid themselves of the Helmer's and Bloom's off the TV and promote the others mentioned. The lib/dumbs who've campaigned for " fair votes" for years will benefit from FPTP, but I'm pretty sure UKIP will get a higher share of the national vote come the GE. People seem to think that the " vote Nigel, get Ed" slogan will put people off voting for them, but I disagree. An Ed Milliband Government elected on a 35% mandate , propped up by the Lib/Dumbs which came 4th in the share of the national vote, is the best senario for UKIP. The Lib/Dumbs will have to have some sort of movement towards PR as a " red line" ( which will obvious help UKIP) , and the people will be denied a vote on Europe .Add to that deficit reduction and Labours economic incompetence and we could up up with Ed Hollande. Those conditions will certainly help UKIP in 2020.

Part of UKIP's appeal although it is also their downfall is the fact that they are not made up of 'career politicians'. In five years time it would be great if it was seen as politically stupidity for any of the big parties to put forward a candidate who has never had a proper job or run a business and who has no real exposure to the outside world.

I think UKiP will over take the libdems as party no.3.

Part of UKIP's appeal although it is also their downfall is the fact that they are not made up of 'career politicians'. In five years time it would be great if it was seen as politically stupidity for any of the big parties to put forward a candidate who has never had a proper job or run a business and who has no real exposure to the outside world.

Spot on.

I would like to see more ex doctors , teachers, policemen , union officials and the like standing .

Spot on.

 

I would like to see more ex doctors , teachers, policemen , union officials and the like standing .

Spot on.

 

I would like to see more ex doctors , teachers, policemen , union officials and the like standing .

Admirable sentiments but the harsh facts are that if doctors and teachers take the risk and stand for Parliament and then lose their seat at the following election, they've lost out on essential in-service training.

Doctors in particular would be facing a significant pay cut too.

Admirable sentiments but the harsh facts are that if doctors and teachers take the risk and stand for Parliament and then lose their seat at the following election, they've lost out on essential in-service training.

 

Doctors in particular would be facing a significant pay cut too.

Give MPs pay rises

Oh, can't be doing that

Give MPs pay rises

 

Oh, can't be doing that

Best not, at least then we have people doing it for the right reasons, not just to line their pockets.

Best not, at least then we have people doing it for the right reasons, not just to line their pockets.

People also have to earn a living. Or you will just get the rich being politicians

Many, many of those who you say "line their pockets" could probably earn more by doing something else, with far less hassle

I would like to see politicians being paid more and banned from getting paid by other interests.

They should do it out of a sense of duty. It should not be a career choice. If it is a career they make decisions based on what is good for them not the people they represent.