Saints Have 45% Chance of Top Five Finish

Great article in the Times, here.

The calculations made by Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Kostas Paraschakis show that Southampton are on course to finish on 61 points. That is their expected number. At the beginning of the season we were expecting them to finish on 52 points, and this nine-point gain is bigger than any other club. In other words, Southampton are doing quite a bit better even than we expected them to on the basis of last year’s campaign and before they sold anyone.At the beginning of the season, Southampton had a 3 per cent chance of a top-four finish and a 7 per cent chance of a top-five finish. After all those sales, they have a (striking) 28 per cent chance of a Champions League slot and a 45 per cent chance of finishing in the top five.

I'd say it's 50/50. Either we do, or we don't.

It'd be nice if we do though.

Not convinced it's that high. Fixtures play a part.

To be fair, it's a win-win for the academics here. We finish top 5 and "hey, our new calculations were right". We finish 10th and "hey, our 55% showed that it was more likely they'd finish outside the top 5"

Love utter guff stats like this!

We are still two points behind last seasons results, it is early days and to be fair we could well keep on improving as it seems the drive is there to do better not just to survive. I suppose the key will be how we cope with injuries and suspensions. We are picking up more yellow cards this season, partly because we are showing a willingness to pick up a booking for the team if we are under threat. Part of the winning mentality we seem to be developing. Let us hope the fink tank points prediction is correct.

Err...do they mean of staying up, surely.

Great news. Preparing my litigation against the Times just in case they are wrong

GM you read the Times!!!

Did they say what the scores would be?

We have some top clubs still to play during this half of the season. Too early to predict on the basis of some relatively easy games so far.

So no meltdown then?

I tell you what if we win today then I think top 7 is very achievable, however I doubt we will finish top 5 or 6, if Koeman can better last season finish and also take us 1 round further in each cup then poch did, it will be a fantastic season and a great platform for us to become a top 5/6 side and be a Spurs type club who finish between 7th and 5th every season.

If you like the times article then you'll love this http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/10/10/6957007/premier-league-projections-week-7

Spurs web-site showing season projections and methodology

Err...do they mean of staying up, surely.

What a troll, laughable.

What a troll, laughable.

Trolls are only trolls if people respond to them....

If you like the times article then you'll love this http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/10/10/6957007/premier-league-projections-week-7

 

Spurs web-site showing season projections and methodology

The only sensible bit of that was

"Spurs and their compatriots just need to play better. That's how they'll move up the projected table."

The rest was pure gibberish.

That seems far too high to me.

5th? Bite your hand off!

3rd apparently..

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league?sort=predicted

3rd apparently..

 

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league?sort=predicted

15 goals conceded all season?

57% chance of a top 4 finish here and 14.3% for the title

and now only 0.4% chance of relegation

and that was even before todays result

this uses Monte Carlo to analyse a well established basis of analysis and was pretty accurate last year but has some bais to current form

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html