2015 Tour De France

Who will win out of the Big Four? Will Froome hit the cobbled deck faster than Lallana chasing a pay rise? With no Kittel, can Cavendish win a few of the few flat stages? Is anyone going to even bother fighting Sagan for green? Is Simon Yates really 28/1 to win the white jersey? (Seriously that's worth a bet, all that needs to happen is for Quintana to fall over and the French to disappoint slightly, which has been known).

Ten Brits this year rather than the four last time round. What's the betting that either the Schneiderlin or Toby sagas are still ongoing when it finishes? Take three weeks off from transfer rumours: it's time for the Tour...

My Mrs is torn between Nibali and Alberto. Myself, I prefer the one day races so have no preference but our house goes a bit mental when Cav is in a sprint finish.

No Kittel? How come?

FWIW Here's my predictions for posterity...

Yellow = Berty

Blue = Sagan

Polka = Arredondo

White = Quintana

Most Entertaining = Hyjedal, if not for aggressive riding, for lanky late 70s retro look

Biggest Disappointment = Aru now he's across the border and has to rider clean (cleaner)

Most Controversial yet Predictable = Astana, team bus gets rumbled on rest day and kicked out of the Pro Tour for good!

No Kittel? How come?

He's been struggling health wise all year. Spinning squares.

Romain Bardet to take both the polka-dot and white jerseys.

Can't see past Sagan for green and yellow is simply to close to call.

Sagan might have to win the green jersey without much assistance from his team if they are all looking after Contador, but he has the maverick ability to do it.

Just great to have so many Brits. In a way I hope Froome falls off early to give Thomas and Kennaugh a few chances to show what they can do. Roche too. Sky have so many good riders it's a pity they'll spend all their time nannying Froome.

The prologue might suit Alex Dowsett. Would be beautiful if he took yellow.

I'm looking forwards to this. I work from home so will find it hard not to sit and watch the stages live.

Edit: of course it's itv4. The heat has melted my brain today.

Last few years since moving to the US I've always done the NBC live streaming package, get to see the whole stage most days in HD, and it's in the morning like the football, so I keep it on in the background while working and ensure I have no meetings planned for any day there's a Cav sprint or a mountain finish. This year though... we're going back to the UK for the whole of July (well, leaving on Friday) so I'll be trying to figure out what happens for coverage in the UK now.

Is it ITV4? Is there any online coverage in the UK? (I guess ITV Player?)

The Kittel thing is weird though. He honestly thought he was ready and is apparently annoyed at the team for not picking him (though his results were so poor). I wonder if there's more going on there than we know.

Every stage can be watched live on ITV4 or Eurosport including Eurosport Player which is about £5.

Be nice to see Cav get 4 stages this year to move second in the all time list

As I am winding down towards retirement at the end of term, most of my jobs have been passed over to others who will pick them up in September, so I am left with baby-sitting the naughty kids and having plenty of work time to spend pondering this year's tour. Here is my take on it.

Stage 1 is an odd one, longer than a normal prologue, but nothing like a standard ITT, so may not favour Tony Martin or Alex Dowsett. Fancy Tom Demoulin for this one. A Dutch TT specialist in yellow seems rather fitting in Utrecht.

Stage 2 looks like a sprint stage on the surface. I think the elevation difference along the route is + or - 6 metres so flatter than flat. Looks essentially like a drag race between the fast men, but there is a fly in the ointment. The last 50K are for the best part parallel to the North Sea coast of Zeeland, and it brings with it the prospect of crosswinds, echelons and splits in the peloton. If it stays together it should be one for Cav or if possibly Kristoff .

Stage 3 to the Mur de Huy is a mini Fleche Wallone so Valverde is the obvious choice for this. Its shorter than the spring classic but has the same finale, so looking beyond the obvious, how about Dan Martin or even one of the explosive climber among the GC boys?

Stage 4 will be a test of bike handling as it includes pave on the way from Seraing to Cambrai. Like last year's cobbled stage it could be where the tour is lost rather than won. Nibali showed last year the he wasn't averse to them and he could again put time into the other GC contenders. Sky have got Thomas, Rowe and Stannard to help Froome, but he has got to stay upright. If it rains again it could be carnage as the tour peloton consists of far fewer specialists than Paris-Roubaix. Fancy an out and out specialist so, Sepp Vanmarcke.

That's all for this post. I'll post again shortly.

Congratulations on your impeding retirement. I hope to join you one day. Well, one year actually.

Congratulations on your impeding retirement. I hope to join you one day. Well, one year actually.

Thanks WG. To be honest it's only partial retirement. With a daughter still at Uni and still being only 57 there'll be a few more years of work in me yet. I've got a contract to return part-time in September as a cover supervisor (basically an in house supply teacher) 3 days a week, so it'll be three days on four off. Plenty of time to get out on the bike!

My Mrs is gutted about Kittel, he's her eye candy.

Every stage can be watched live on ITV4 or Eurosport including Eurosport Player which is about £5.

- Thanks, that's actually really good to know. We're thinking of just taking iPad, no laptop or anything this time, so hopefully something will work out.

Be interesting if Valverde did go nuts and take Mur De Huy by enough to get the yellow. Do Movistar spend the rest of the first week wearing themselves out protecting yellow and leave Quintana exposed for the rest of the race? Valverde's just enough of a contender to make them at least think about doing that.

Astonishing ride by Rohan Dennis. Beats the time trial record speed set by Chris Boardman.

That was a superb ride by Dennis, absolutely blitzed the course.

Rapido!

My preiction of Astana sadly already started before the Grande Depart

My preiction of Astana sadly already started before the Grande Depart

With the Kazakh Chemist in charge it's almost sadly inevitable.

That was an evil crash. They were going seriously quick.

Just seen it, that has got to hurt. 50kph+, face plants all over the place. Ouch

That was awful - problem was the speed combined with the way that light pole acted like a barrier.....

Chapeau to Prudhomme for having the balls to neutralizing the race much to the consternation of the lead teams - guarantee if it was the Giro they would have bottled it.

Tony Martin. Legend.

Can't believe the peloton watched him go it alone.

Thibaut Pinot came over typically French today. Exactly the same happened to Martin, he took his team mates bike and went on to the stage win.

Can't believe the peloton watched him go it alone.

Many of the riders at the front were not going to chase him. His team mates, ( Cavendish, Stybar, Uran, Vermote), had no reason to, Froome and Thomas were happy to relinquish responsibility for the Maillot Jaune; and Nibali, Quintana, and Contador know he isn't a long term threat for the overall GC.

Besides which, over a 3Km time trial, he is probably the fastest in the world.

That was quality from Martin.

Quite surprising Sky only had one man up with Froome for the last few cobbled sections. Thomas is my favourite rider right now, not only is he massively talented but he also comes across as a really sound bloke.

" And whilst Nibali and Rodriguez shoot the breeze like it's a Sunday club run someone has dropped a Tony Martyn bomb" ...or words to that effect

Gotta love Carlton Kirbys commentary

FWIW This is my take on today's stage.

Stage 6 from Abbeville will involve a break with the usual suspects but it won’t last and it won’t be a day for the really fast men. The uphill finish in Le Havre isn’t quite the Mur de Huy being both shorter and not as steep. I initially fancied Gerrans or Matthews to bring it home for OGE, but with the former out and the latter riding with two broken ribs that isn't going to happen. With much of the route hugging the Normandy coast the wind could once again come into play leading to splits and potential time losses. Ultimately I think it's a case of Degenkolb or Sagan for the win.

Dont know if anyone else has been looking out for it but some of the on bike footage has been excellent.

My preview of Stage 7.

I've heard of most of the places the tour has been going to and from apart from today's depart, Livarot. Cue the interweb! So, it is in Normandy and is famous for a soft cheese by the same name. On the surface of it Fougeres could be just as obscure to me if wasn't for the fact I've actually been there, albeit a long time ago. I recall a castle and something about it being a centre for shoe making in the past, something like a Breton, Northampton, then. Anyway back to cycling, this stage could be either the easiest or the most problematic of the tour so far. A chance for the peloton to relax after the crosswinds, cobbles, and super steep finishes in the first week it could either be totally uneventful or could be plagued by even more crashes. Yesterday was a classic example of this. A low key day which ended up in chaos 600 metres from the line with the maillot jeune down and out, three main contenders on the deck and a fourth narrowly missing out on that dubious pleasure. It should be bunch sprint into Fougeres with Cav remembering how to sprint once more.....Hopefully!

My preview of Stage 7.

I've heard of most of the places the tour has been going to and from apart from today's depart, Livarot. Cue the interweb! So, it is in Normandy and is famous for a soft cheese by the same name. On the surface of it Fougeres could be just as obscure to me if wasn't for the fact I've actually been there, albeit a long time ago. I recall a castle and something about it being a centre for shoe making in the past, something like a Breton, Northampton, then. Anyway back to cycling, this stage could be either the easiest or the most problematic of the tour so far. A chance for the peloton to relax after the crosswinds, cobbles, and super steep finishes in the first week it could either be totally uneventful or could be plagued by even more crashes. Yesterday was a classic example of this. A low key day which ended up in chaos 600 metres from the line with the maillot jeune down and out, three main contenders on the deck and a fourth narrowly missing out on that dubious pleasure. It should be bunch sprint into Fougeres with Cav remembering how to sprint once more.....Hopefully!

Smelliest cheese ever - never, ever bring one home, ever.

We nearly ran into the Tour earlier today in Argentan. We were driving back from Spain towards Ouistreham with the caravan in tow and all the roads were blocked off so we ended up against some barriers in some backstreet car park in the middle of the city just before they all came through. We had to get the boat at 16:30 or else we would have hung around for twenty minutes but ended up backtracking some ten miles south so as to get the motorway back north again. We could see all the safety cars going overhead on the D2. We were due to come back on the 13th and I had checked the route before we left so I wasn't expecting any problems. The trouble is that with a 190km blockage transecting your intended route there are not many places in north France where there are over- or under-passes.

There was quite a big party atmosphere in the centre of Argentan and it was a pity to miss it but we had a boat to catch

Tour lasted one hill or so it would seem...

Tour lasted one hill or so it would seem...

Hard to argue with that, unless Froome has burned so much energy he is open to attack tomorrow. Somehow I doubt that. Hope he attacks again...bloody good tour this by the way.

Loved the fact Richie Porte came into the last 400m saw Qintana, smirked and proceeded to Nick the bonus seconds

Interesting that SKY reckoned yesterday that their computers had been hacked in an attempt to 'steal' Froome's performance data.

Don't assume it's over, most of the remaining stages are mountainous, and tougher than today.

Froome full retard! If you want a laugh go to this site to see what the barking mad think of it all. http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewforum.php?f=20 The Clinic is such a source of entertainment.

I thought he rode brilliantly. My Mrs is gutted as she dislikes him intensely and loves Berty.

Froome full retard! If you want a laugh go to this site to see what the barking mad think of it all. http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewforum.php?f=20 The Clinic is such a source of entertainment.

mental, just mental.

They really don't like British riders doing well on that forum. Thomas now has his own thread with people disbelieving he can finish so high up in a mountaintop finish.

Does anyone here truly think Sky have uncovered some as of yet untestable drug which is helping their riders blitz up mountains or is it a case of them having some great riders plus the best training and strategy?

They really don't like British riders doing well on that forum. Thomas now has his own thread with people disbelieving he can finish so high up in a mountaintop finish.

 

Does anyone here truly think Sky have uncovered some as of yet untestable drug which is helping their riders blitz up mountains or is it a case of them having some great riders plus the best training and strategy?

Not sure about SKY specifically, but I doubt the Tour as a whole is 'clean'.

My Mrs is gutted as she dislikes him intensely and loves Berty.

How can she like that cheating c**t is beyond me.

Super ride by Froome and well supported by his team. When Porte moves to a team where he will be the team leader, watch out for him. He'll be a threat to Froome. The way he rode for him and still had the legs to get past Quintana shows his pedigree.

Going to be interesting to see how Sky take their tactics, whether they will be content in defending the lead or whether Froome will attack again and try to put daylight between the rest of the field. Also will be interesting to see how the other teams now play the game.

They really don't like British riders doing well on that forum. Thomas now has his own thread with people disbelieving he can finish so high up in a mountaintop finish.

 

Does anyone here truly think Sky have uncovered some as of yet untestable drug which is helping their riders blitz up mountains or is it a case of them having some great riders plus the best training and strategy?

The Clinic is vehemently anti English speaking cycling because the 'nutters' that post there feel that there is an attitude amongst the Brits, Americans and to some extent the Aussies that it's only 'other Europeans'/South Americans who dope. Bearing in mind systematic doping was taken to its highest level of perfection by a US team headed by Lance Armstrong you can understand the cynicism it portrays if not the mania. My personal view is that Sky have simply got best use out of their marginal gains in terms of training and strategy. I simply cannot see Dave Brailsford allowing, not just Sky, but the whole of British Cycling for the last decade be discredited in this way. He and others have too much to lose. You only have to look at Saints and see how we use a different approach to punch above our weight and not merely be another WHU, Newcastle, Stoke etc. Getting it right in terms of science, health, nutrition, training and recruitment has given us an marginal edge at present, and I believe this is where Sky as a team maintain an edge over other teams. The difference between us and them is that we probably equate to someone like Orica Greenedge while they have a relative funding level of a Chelsea/Man City/Barca/Real Madrid and can basically buy the best.

Makes sense Winner. I like the analogy with Orica Greenedge, we're the plucky up and comers with some good youngsters.

Dan Martin had a good ride today. Just not enough left in the tank to catch Majka. Nibali is all over the place which is a surprise at this early stage. The Clinic lot will have been unhappy to see Thomas riding strongly up front deep into the stage. Looks like he's there to stay with the top boys.

The analysis on the clinic is certainly unnerving. I thought SKY were whiter than white, but the the suggestions are that the power improvements despite weight loss and the ability to excel in both time trials and in the mountains is just not possible without doping. I hope that is not the case. Armstrong broke my tour de France loving heart, so to find out the new cleaner tour won by clean riders is actually a sham would be unforgivable.