How does the Black Box work?

I've probably read it before but how does it actually work? How does it monitor and assess players? How much input does a manager have or does the manager choose from options that are presented by the black box? Just curious.

As I understand it, it takes the vital metrics of every known player from a vast array of different data sources, and presents it in a way that we can compare every player based on what we need.

Whereas most other teams have scouting software, ours is bespoke to be able to use several different data sources, and we seem to have been pretty good at making the data we have more accurate than most other teams have, as well as being perhaps able to compare players based on a combination of stats that other teams would find it tricky to compare, because we have it in the one system. Also we seem to have a little bit of an advantage in figuring out what we need from a player in recent years.

At least, that's what's been made public in interviews. Maybe it does some other stuff that they're keeping to themselves?

It's not magic, or even particularly secret, what we've done, but how we've done it is what's given us a little bit of an edge over other teams in the time we've been using it so far.

It (specifically the club) analyses between 100-200 players every single season.

In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system.

It holds every single statistic that can be measured (probably including everything that can't aswell) and that is

cross referenced against current players to find potential new ones.

Literally every "in play" stat is stored and cross referenced against whoever it is we are looking to replace, hence, the calibre of

players that have been brought in.

4 people have access to that room which has 4 screens inside it with a visual Database on each screen, nobody else gets in there,

unless you happen to know someone well enough to authorise you to.

When bringing in a player, the Black Box believe it or not, is just a rough starting point of a VERY long process, beyond just whether the player

has the ability to kick a ball or not.

The club takes a keen interest in the person aswell as the player, most importantly the representives of that player too, you can take it as read

every player who gets into the club has been well and truly put through the mill.

As I understand it, it takes the vital metrics of every known player from a vast array of different data sources, and presents it in a way that we can compare every player based on what we need.

 

Whereas most other teams have scouting software, ours is bespoke to be able to use several different data sources, and we seem to have been pretty good at making the data we have more accurate than most other teams have, as well as being perhaps able to compare players based on a combination of stats that other teams would find it tricky to compare, because we have it in the one system. Also we seem to have a little bit of an advantage in figuring out what we need from a player in recent years.

 

At least, that's what's been made public in interviews. Maybe it does some other stuff that they're keeping to themselves?

 

It's not magic, or even particularly secret, what we've done, but how we've done it is what's given us a little bit of an edge over other teams in the time we've been using it so far.

Yep, pretty much how I understand it.

One other thing, which you didn't touch on that I think gives us an edge is, we start capturing data and tracking players at a very young age (not just within our academy), and over time what has evolved is not just a lump of data capturing vital stats, but a system that is becoming predictive. (ie a 17 year old with x attributes now will have y attributes by age 21)

I guess the big clubs don't need this edge as they are top of the food chain and trade players for a slightly different agenda - but it's valuable for us.

I've always thought it was a PS4 with a big screen and every year they upgrade it by buying the new fifa.

It (specifically the club) analyses between 100-200 players every single season.

 

In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system.

 

It holds every single statistic that can be measured (probably including everything that can't aswell) and that is

cross referenced against current players to find potential new ones.

 

Literally every "in play" stat is stored and cross referenced against whoever it is we are looking to replace, hence, the calibre of

players that have been brought in.

 

4 people have access to that room which has 4 screens inside it with a visual Database on each screen, nobody else gets in there,

unless you happen to know someone well enough to authorise you to.

 

When bringing in a player, the Black Box believe it or not, is just a rough starting point of a VERY long process, beyond just whether the player

has the ability to kick a ball or not.

 

The club takes a keen interest in the person aswell as the player, most importantly the representives of that player too, you can take it as read every player who gets into the club has been well and truly put through the mill.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not doubting your figures or what you've said as it sounds like you are pretty close to this. Your comment in bold is also interesting.

However, the numbers don't actually sound impressive. Wyscout for example accumulates stats from every player in 1800 matches around the world every week? Is it that the detailed analysis is richer?

Also who/what determines the 100 who are monitoring and how quickly is analysis turned around? There must be some exceptions where managers favourite players aren't on the 100 being analysed, but still wants him in. (Osvaldo springs to mind). What happens then?

As an IT Geek, I'd be interested in knowing how much data is stored and what platform it runs on. Anyone have any info on that, or is that considered commercial in confidence.

Just a scouting and data analysis system I guess.

TBF it's a bit more than that but ultimately will produce outputs that need human interpretation hence you still can end up with players that a manager knows..eg Clasie, Pelle, Tadic, Pied.

It would be interesting to know of any player that has been identified using the system that has actually been sold on at a profit?

Cheers guys, appreciated, good read that. I wonder who vets their personalities though?

Oh and is the management recruiting process somewhat similar? I understand that you can't necessarily put through a manager in a data system...

It (specifically the club) analyses between 100-200 players every single season.

 

In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system.

 

It holds every single statistic that can be measured (probably including everything that can't aswell) and that is

cross referenced against current players to find potential new ones.

 

Literally every "in play" stat is stored and cross referenced against whoever it is we are looking to replace, hence, the calibre of

players that have been brought in.

 

4 people have access to that room which has 4 screens inside it with a visual Database on each screen, nobody else gets in there,

unless you happen to know someone well enough to authorise you to.

 

When bringing in a player, the Black Box believe it or not, is just a rough starting point of a VERY long process, beyond just whether the player

has the ability to kick a ball or not.

 

The club takes a keen interest in the person aswell as the player, most importantly the representives of that player too, you can take it as read

every player who gets into the club has been well and truly put through the mill.

How do we identify which players to monitor? The scouts must surely see thousands of players a season between them.

I've always thought it was a PS4 with a big screen and every year they upgrade it by buying the new fifa.

My PS4 is a white box!

It (specifically the club) analyses between 100-200 players every single season.

 

In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system.

 

It holds every single statistic that can be measured (probably including everything that can't aswell) and that is

cross referenced against current players to find potential new ones.

 

Literally every "in play" stat is stored and cross referenced against whoever it is we are looking to replace, hence, the calibre of

players that have been brought in.

 

4 people have access to that room which has 4 screens inside it with a visual Database on each screen, nobody else gets in there,

unless you happen to know someone well enough to authorise you to.

 

When bringing in a player, the Black Box believe it or not, is just a rough starting point of a VERY long process, beyond just whether the player

has the ability to kick a ball or not.

 

The club takes a keen interest in the person aswell as the player, most importantly the representives of that player too, you can take it as read

every player who gets into the club has been well and truly put through the mill.

So the black box helps grade the eligibility of players and does the player/agent get 'sounded out' for suitability?

TBF it's a bit more than that but ultimately will produce outputs that need human interpretation hence you still can end up with players that a manager knows..eg Clasie, Pelle, Tadic, Pied.

It would be interesting to know of any player that has been identified using the system that has actually been sold on at a profit?

Mané I would guess?

My PS4 is a white box!

I think spurs have that one.

How do we identify which players to monitor? The scouts must surely see thousands of players a season between them.

Maybe the box throws the names out there and the scouts then put the eyes on them.

Mané I would guess?

That would be interesting to know whether it was the black box or Koeman? I thought I read an article where it said he had identified him from a champions league match against Red Bull but that could be inaccurate?

Update...Had a quick scan of CL and EL and I reckon that isn't accurate as as far as I can see RK hasn't managed a team which played against a team with Mane in as far as I can see..

Bit like football manager I guess when you decide you need a quick striker, you just filter on what you want.

It's not a box or a system. It's a room with some computers and analysts within it.

I think spurs have that one.

No, Mitchell left Spurs because Levy would only authorise the purchase of a ZX Spectrum

Don't get me wrong, I'm not doubting your figures or what you've said as it sounds like you are pretty close to this. Your comment in bold is also interesting.

 

However, the numbers don't actually sound impressive. Wyscout for example accumulates stats from every player in 1800 matches around the world every week? Is it that the detailed analysis is richer?

 

Also who/what determines the 100 who are monitoring and how quickly is analysis turned around? There must be some exceptions where managers favourite players aren't on the 100 being analysed, but still wants him in. (Osvaldo springs to mind). What happens then?

 

As an IT Geek, I'd be interested in knowing how much data is stored and what platform it runs on. Anyone have any info on that, or is that considered commercial in confidence.

(highlighted) I have no idea whatsoever and would never be told that info either, I just know those are the numbers.

The other questions, I have no idea to those either, that's literally the extent of what I know of it.

I don't think a great many people would know the answer to those either but would love to,

especially Liverpool.

Yep, pretty much how I understand it.

 

One other thing, which you didn't touch on that I think gives us an edge is, we start capturing data and tracking players at a very young age (not just within our academy), and over time what has evolved is not just a lump of data capturing vital stats, but a system that is becoming predictive. (ie a 17 year old with x attributes now will have y attributes by age 21)

 

I guess the big clubs don't need this edge as they are top of the food chain and trade players for a slightly different agenda - but it's valuable for us.

That bit in bold is highly subjective and just not linear in a players development as they go through grow spurts and so on. There are plenty of examples of players being rejected at Pro clubs at a relatively young age, only to make the grade later on (SRL for one). I'm not saying you're wrong in that we may collect the data at an early age, but I'd be surprised if we rule in or out any given player based on that data at that age range. It may allow us to have a broader range of "possibles" that others may have already rejected I guess, in that we may have the Talent Id analysts who can say "they were on track to do X as a youth player, it's not happened and they've gone out of favour, but signs are Y has happened and in all likelihood, they are coming good again....".

The more variables we have to put into the decision, the more chance we'll have of getting more right than wrong, but it's not an exact science. That said, I'm eternally glad that Sports Science wasn't around in the mid 80's as otherwise someone would have said "You see that nipper over there, he doesn't cover enough ground per game according to this 'ere black box, what's his name again, Le Tissy something or other........" :^)

I think it is in Koeman's dream.

Let me tell you, let me tell you

What you do

What you do

You just walk right in

Walk, walk, walk right in

It (specifically the club) analyses between 100-200 players every single season.

 

In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system.

 

It holds every single statistic that can be measured (probably including everything that can't aswell) and that is

cross referenced against current players to find potential new ones.

 

Literally every "in play" stat is stored and cross referenced against whoever it is we are looking to replace, hence, the calibre of

players that have been brought in.

 

4 people have access to that room which has 4 screens inside it with a visual Database on each screen, nobody else gets in there,

unless you happen to know someone well enough to authorise you to.

 

When bringing in a player, the Black Box believe it or not, is just a rough starting point of a VERY long process, beyond just whether the player

has the ability to kick a ball or not.

 

The club takes a keen interest in the person aswell as the player, most importantly the representives of that player too, you can take it as read

every player who gets into the club has been well and truly put through the mill.

That is exactly what I have been told by someone who was invited to view the black box. As an ex football club director we was very impressed.

You have posted enough for me to suggest you really do know what is going on in the club and transfer/contract information. Thanks for sharing.

The concept is based on the dating software developed by Match.com, which brought Les and Ralph together after years on the shelf. It includes variables such as height, weight, hobbies, pets and sense of humour. A negatively weighted 'randiness' quotient was added after Pardew was sacked.

It (specifically the club) analyses between 100-200 players every single season.

 

In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system.

 

It holds every single statistic that can be measured (probably including everything that can't aswell) and that is

cross referenced against current players to find potential new ones.

 

Literally every "in play" stat is stored and cross referenced against whoever it is we are looking to replace, hence, the calibre of

players that have been brought in.

 

4 people have access to that room which has 4 screens inside it with a visual Database on each screen, nobody else gets in there,

unless you happen to know someone well enough to authorise you to.

 

When bringing in a player, the Black Box believe it or not, is just a rough starting point of a VERY long process, beyond just whether the player

has the ability to kick a ball or not.

 

The club takes a keen interest in the person aswell as the player, most importantly the representives of that player too, you can take it as read

every player who gets into the club has been well and truly put through the mill.

So .. can you tell us more about how Gaston Ramirez was deemed appropriate for us? And even more so, how Dani Osvaldo passed the most basic of tests? Is temperament assessed, or just stats?

So .. can you tell us more about how Gaston Ramirez was deemed appropriate for us? And even more so, how Dani Osvaldo passed the most basic of tests? Is temperament assessed, or just stats?

I'm fairly sure the answer to both of those is "Cortese shouting loudly".

So .. can you tell us more about how Gaston Ramirez was deemed appropriate for us? And even more so, how Dani Osvaldo passed the most basic of tests? Is temperament assessed, or just stats?

Do you really think there's a system where every single player ever bought will be a success?

Gaston clearly could have and probably looked very good on paper/screen.

Do you really think there's a system where every single player ever bought will be a success?

 

Gaston clearly could have and probably looked very good on paper/screen.

I suspect he/she is like many, questioning that the black box system/process was ever undertaken for these players

So .. can you tell us more about how Gaston Ramirez was deemed appropriate for us?

And even more so, how Dani Osvaldo passed the most basic of tests? Is temperament assessed, or just stats?

I'm not even sure that the Black Box was " up-and-running " at the time. Neither of the two mentioned would have met the criteria that we seem to have set up since.

As memory serves....Ramirez took part in the 2012 Olympics (?)....and must have looked good, and so we bought him.

Osvaldo was an acknowledged "loose cannon " who had played for Pochettino in the past and who he (somewhat stupidly) thought he could "tame".

The most disturbing aspect of the signings in " the Cortese era," was that he authorised huge sums of money to the purchase of players through his Swiss / Italian contacts whilst only a pittance was allowed for the purchase of recognised English talent. Jay Rod was the only real exception.

I'm not even sure that the Black Box was " up-and-running " at the time. Neither of the two mentioned would have met the criteria that we seem to have set up since.

 

As memory serves....Ramirez took part in the 2012 Olympics (?)....and must have looked good, and so we bought him.

Osvaldo was an acknowledged "loose cannon " who had played for Pochettino in the past and who he (somewhat stupidly) thought he could "tame".

 

The most disturbing aspect of the signings in " the Cortese era," was that he authorised huge sums of money to the purchase of players through his Swiss / Italian contacts whilst only a pittance was allowed for the purchase of recognised English talent. Jay Rod was the only real exception.

That's just not true during cortese's time we signed loads of English players (maybe not all talented! Lol) off the top of my head Chaplow, Hammond, lambert, Clyne, butterfield, bernard, sharpe, etc sure I forgot a load plus some foreign players already playing in England eg Fonte.

That would be interesting to know whether it was the black box or Koeman? I thought I read an article where it said he had identified him from a champions league match against Red Bull but that could be inaccurate?

Update...Had a quick scan of CL and EL and I reckon that isn't accurate as as far as I can see RK hasn't managed a team which played against a team with Mane in as far as I can see..

I think you're right Fred as far as I remember it the game was against Ajax and was a qualifier which I think red bull won.

I think you're right Fred as far as I remember it the game was against Ajax and was a qualifier which I think red bull won.

thanks.. I knew I read it somewhere back when he signed but never really looked to see if it was true!

It's very clever. It forecasts which players Liverpool, Spurs and Man United will want to buy in 2 years' time.

It's very clever. It forecasts which players Liverpool, Spurs and Man United will want to buy in 2 years' time.

Liverpools computer identified Mane just before we bought him but Brenda didn't want him, so perhaps ours is just a system to hack all the other clubs scouting systems?

That's just not true during cortese's time we signed loads of English players (maybe not all talented! Lol) off the top of my head Chaplow, Hammond, lambert, Clyne, butterfield, bernard, sharpe, etc sure I forgot a load plus some foreign players already playing in England eg Fonte.

Read me again Fred.. I said huge sums of money spent on Cortese's foreign purchases ....which enriched the coffers of his European pals.

As far as I can trace the purchases of Mayuka, Ramirez and Osvaldo cost the club almost £28 million in transfer fees (let alone their salaries paid afterwards).

I agree with the list of "good" buys that you listed above, but the rest of the squad cost considerably less than the money squandered on these three.

Read me again Fred.. I said huge sums of money spent on Cortese's foreign purchases ....which enriched the coffers of his European pals.

 

As far as I can trace the purchases of Mayuka, Ramirez and Osvaldo cost the club almost £28 million in transfer fees (let alone their salaries paid afterwards).

 

I agree with the list of "good" buys that you listed above, but the rest of the squad cost considerably less than the money squandered on these three.

That is just a bizarre accusation..what are you accusing him of? Fraud? "Enriching the coffers of his European pals"?

Of course they cost more they were out record signings..Osvaldo was obviously a Poch signing he worked with him?

How has this changed since? We have spent over 100m since he left and very little From English clubs- Bertrand, Redmond Long have I forgot any? against those purchased from non English clubs Forster, VVD, Pelle, Tadic, Wanyama, Cedric, Martina, Mane, Davis, Hojbjerg, Pied, etc etc etc..

The long and short is that the "character" element can't be quantified, so signing players in the list which the manager has experience of could still trump all the other data.

I do believe that I read somewhere that the current team player performance analysis also go through the Black Box during the season.

Someone asked about the manager appointments possibly going through the box, I also recall seeing somewhere that when MP entered the building after, Adkins left, that we had already started the process of identifying potential candidates to replace him.

 

That is just a bizarre accusation..what are you accusing him of? Fraud? "Enriching the coffers of his European pals"?

 

Of course they cost more they were out record signings..Osvaldo was obviously a Poch signing he worked with him?

 

How has this changed since? We have spent over 100m since he left and very little From English clubs- Bertrand, Redmond Long have I forgot any? against those purchased from non English clubs Forster, VVD, Pelle, Tadic, Wanyama, Cedric, Martina, Mane, Davis, Hojbjerg, Pied, etc etc etc..

Of course not fraud, but certainly an element of "favouritism", but I was referring to the period when Cortese was holding the purse strings, or should it be cheque book ?

A good " mainly British squad " was assembled for just a fraction of the sum wasted on these three failures. Hence my comment about the Black Box not functioning then as it apparantly does now......if indeed it was being used then? Pochettino certainly got carried away with his demand for Osvaldo to join and Cortese trusted him (!)

Of course prices have gone up ...just look at the level of transfer prices then compared with now. Historically when a player goes for a huge sum of money, others dare to demand more. Alan Shearer's transfer to Blackburn 1992 was a British record at over £3 million.....shortly afterwards it was Paul Gascoigne at £4 million.

Not so long ago £50 million was an enormous transfer sum..then came the Bale transfer (£86 million (?). Now £50 million is almost par for the course for big money clubs.

The Pogba transfer is laughable in as much as Man Utd actually let him go for less than £2 million just a few seasons ago, and now buy him back at a price that lays the groundwork for the first £100 million transfer. Daft I call it . For that money.....I'd be embarrassed to be a Man. Utd fan if he isn't MoM with 9/10 every game.

With less than 40% of English / British players in the Prem. it's now inevitable that we have lots of foreign players - especially as less than a handful of Prem. clubs have British managers and fewer are " British owned." If you employ a Dutch manager you get Dutch-based players...so I expect a few more French names to come to SMS...

I've nothing against foreign players. Saints have been at the forefront of bringing players from abroad. The first Yugoslav, the first Russian, the first Latvian etc....

The Black Box..(the subject of this thread by the way)....has a better insight into the performance of players than the "amateur" attempts of Nicola Cortese to enrich the team by buying from Italian / Swiss clubs when that sort of money could have be put to good use with home-based players who knew the English / British football scene, .....as has been proven by the list of the excellent buys you gave yourself.

Of course not fraud, but certainly an element of "favouritism", but I was referring to the period when Cortese was holding the purse strings, or should it be cheque book ?

 

A good " mainly British squad " was assembled for just a fraction of the sum wasted on these three failures. Hence my comment about the Black Box not functioning then as it apparantly does now......if indeed it was being used then? Pochettino certainly got carried away with his demand for Osvaldo to join and Cortese trusted him (!)

 

Of course prices have gone up ...just look at the level of transfer prices then compared with now. Historically when a player goes for a huge sum of money, others dare to demand more. Alan Shearer's transfer to Blackburn 1992 was a British record at over £3 million.....shortly afterwards it was Paul Gascoigne at £4 million.

 

Not so long ago £50 million was an enormous transfer sum..then came the Bale transfer (£86 million (?). Now £50 million is almost par for the course for big money clubs.

The Pogba transfer is laughable in as much as Man Utd actually let him go for less than £2 million just a few seasons ago, and now buy him back at a price that lays the groundwork for the first £100 million transfer. Daft I call it :lol . For that money.....I'd be embarrassed to be a Man. Utd fan if he isn't MoM with 9/10 every game.

 

With less than 40% of English / British players in the Prem. it's now inevitable that we have lots of foreign players - especially as less than a handful of Prem. clubs have British managers and fewer are " British owned." If you employ a Dutch manager you get Dutch-based players...so I expect a few more French names to come to SMS...

 

I've nothing against foreign players. Saints have been at the forefront of bringing players from abroad. The first Yugoslav, the first Russian, the first Latvian etc....

 

The Black Box..(the subject of this thread by the way)....has a better insight into the performance of players than the "amateur" attempts of Nicola Cortese to enrich the team by buying from Italian / Swiss clubs when that sort of money could have be put to good use with home-based players who knew the English / British football scene, .....as has been proven by the list of the excellent buys you gave yourself.

This is an absolute mess of a post.

The long and short is that the "character" element can't be quantified, so signing players in the list which the manager has experience of could still trump all the other data.

Can't it? I only surmise that if it is accepted that there is any sort of correlation between how a player behaves in his private life and personal relationships with those around him, and how he would conduct himself as a player or as an integral part of a team, then their celebrity status generally makes it easy to collect this sort of information. Even when the player is relatively unknown at a national level, they are often still worthy of featuring at a more local media level if they are guilty of bad behaviour. If some of our players, even as lowly as academy level got into drunken brawls, stole from handbags, even were prosecuted for speeding, then the Echo would cover it. It would not have been difficult to conclude via the media that Osvaldo's character was not conducive to him being a reliable, stable, trustworthy, loyal and affable member of our team.

I agree with you that the manager can circumvent this negative data if he can demonstrate that he has previously been able to control the player's temperament, but Poch ran out of luck with Osvaldo.

Pretty clear AR10 is just reciting publicly available data, though its too early to conclude he's just another fantasist. The mystification around the black box is plain odd: at most, it's a glorified home entertainment stroke data storage unit. There is nothing 'intelligent' or 'predictive' about it.

Pretty clear AR10 is just reciting publicly available data, though its too early to conclude he's just another fantasist. The mystification around the black box is plain odd: at most, it's a glorified home entertainment stroke data storage unit. There is nothing 'intelligent' or 'predictive' about it.

Yup, unless Saints have a surprisingly big data science and software engineering department with a multi-million £ per year budget, they won't be doing anything more than compiling, sorting and replaying footage and stats.

Yup, unless Saints have a surprisingly big data science and software engineering department with a multi-million £ per year budget, they won't be doing anything more than compiling, sorting and replaying footage and stats.

which in itself is a bit better than pursuing a player who's played a couple of good games in a tournament, or who looks good on a You Tube post.

basically, pimped up version of football manager

surely with all these things it is not the quality of the information but the quality of the person reading it.

you sell a palyer for £x, put £y into the black box, £y vanishes and tells you to buy a player for £x-y

It's very clever. It forecasts which players Liverpool, Spurs and Man United will want to buy in 2 years' time.

I would suggest that such a system would be incredibly valuable and well worth exploiting.

Can't it? I only surmise that if it is accepted that there is any sort of correlation between how a player behaves in his private life and personal relationships with those around him, and how he would conduct himself as a player or as an integral part of a team, then their celebrity status generally makes it easy to collect this sort of information. Even when the player is relatively unknown at a national level, they are often still worthy of featuring at a more local media level if they are guilty of bad behaviour. If some of our players, even as lowly as academy level got into drunken brawls, stole from handbags, even were prosecuted for speeding, then the Echo would cover it. It would not have been difficult to conclude via the media that Osvaldo's character was not conducive to him being a reliable, stable, trustworthy, loyal and affable member of our team.

 

I agree with you that the manager can circumvent this negative data if he can demonstrate that he has previously been able to control the player's temperament, but Poch ran out of luck with Osvaldo.

I don't disagree with any of that - the public stuff can be quantified if it's out there, but it's not the same as having a first hand relationship with the player, and that's always going to be more reliable than any media reporting, for instance. I think we would tend to shy away from approaching any player with any kind of controversy since Cortese went, and Osvaldo (and possibly Caulker based on some of the other posts on here?) gives us a very good indicator of what happens when you don't.