tisspahars

Well, a short version would be......modern markets are controlled by the asian markets which are (very quickly) knocked into shape by the most successful punting syndicates, one of the best headed up by Tony Bloom the Brighton owner. In the same way in which Brighton have been ahead of the curve for years in player and manager recruitment due to using the best numbers to crunch and the best people to crunch them, the gambling side of what these people do works in a similar way. The stats mere mortals like us now see (xG etc) they were using many moons ago and these things are constantly evolving. Different syndicates work in different ways but many have a constant updated rating for each team and this when applied to whether a fixture is home or away gives them a basis for the "correct" price. Quite simply, Saints are currently rated a better side than Ipswich. Whereas the forum would look at the game at Portman Road and say "We were on top but we are a team of bedwetters and they are a proper team so that was always going to happen and will again" the syndicates would say "Southampton by ever metric were clearly the better team and therefore they should be favourites if they meet at a neutral venue." Which is not to say they will be right, of course - but it does explain why we will be favourites.

Why is it that we would be favourites?

I am not saying they would be clear favourites to win in my opinion, I am saying the market would make them clear favourites which it absolutely would. If you think I am wrong about that, as I said to somebody further up, name your price. Or.....

Because I gamble for a living and understand how these things work - if you don't think we would be favourites in this scenario and fancy a wager on it, name your price.

You can react with all the confused faces you like Turkish (😉) but it is a fact - in that scenario, in the real world of cold, hard cash rather than the la la land of this forum, Saints would be clear favourites.

Not only would Ipswich not be "massive favourites", they wouldn't be favourites at all - we would, and clearly.

I don't think I said anything of the sort did I?

Saints Web view of Ipswich performance - Relentless, always find a way to win - absolutely no way we catch them or beat them in the playoffs. Saints Web view of same performance if it had been Saints - Into the crucial period of the season, full house against a team in freefall.....and we just didn't turn up. No energy, no creativity and fully deserved to be behind after an hour (would have been 4 or 5 against Leicester, Leeds or Southampton). Get an equaliser out of nothing and managed to concede again - absolutely gutless. A late rally papers over the cracks (again) and let's not talk about the penalty miss (good luck in the playoffs bottling things like that! Lol) but anyone thinking we hold off Leeds and Southampton or beat them at Wembley needs to give their heads a wobble.

Those feeling this is a completely unwanted distraction that we have no chance in may be interested to know that, in light of the likely Liverpool team, you can currently lay us to qualify at around 11/4 on Betfair.......👀

Whilst there are clearly things that can be improved on, the way a large chunk of this forum has moved from "Never mind promotion this clueless clown is going to get us relegated" during our run of losses to "We may be on a 13 game unbeaten run but it's play-offs only under this clueless clown" without any semblance of self-awareness is truly remarkable.

I agree with the general view that we need to win and that we ought to. Given that, the prices on Betfair look wrong to me - we are about 13/8 and they are 15/8 which seems too close to me, we are far likelier winners than they are imo. Draw is a small win for me, Saints win is a nice return and if Coventry win I may have to sell one of the kids.....

Bizarrely (or not!) not a single person has come on to say they lost money backing Leeds yesterday. If they had won of course......

With the usual caveats from the above quote.......in the "correct score" market on Betfair (not great liquidity at present) it looks like "any other away win" (ie: Leeds to score at least 4) will be around 10/1........

I remember this one well! Given my job, my twitter circle revolves around gambling on horses and although I tweet about Saints I had never recommended a bet before. I said to anyone who would listen that they could lay us without fear (at around 2/1 I think) due to the team we would be forced to put out. I have largely kept my footballing opinions to myself since then.....

The usual reminder when the forum is this certain of a spanking.......Leeds will I imagine be about 6/4 to beat us, which, as the consensus seems to be somewhere between 3 and 5-0 would appear to represent astonishing value. What will actually happen of course is that this will get a chorus of "couldn't possibly bet against my team (I can call them useless, frauds, spineless, pathetic etc but I couldn't possibly bet against them 😄)", and we'll hear no more about it unless Leeds win in which case they'll all appear again afterwards with "easy mpney" posts. As ever, just saying......