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Think we will need at least 40 points


Saints boy in Leeds
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On the basis that Reading and QPR are too far behind us the crux of it for me is how many points Wigan get. Assuming we get to 40 points then Wigan will need 11 points from their remaining 8 games to overtake us - looking at their fixtures I just can't see they will do that. Aside of that I think we will get more than 40 anyway!

Edited by Katalinic
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Villa winning today does us few favours. Looking pretty good too; apparently if they win this that would 3 on the spin for them. Sunderland seem to have acted to prevent their freefall, and looking at their run in they have a number of very winnable games. I can still see the battle for 17th and above going right down to the wire, anyone from us down is still very much in it.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17497445

 

This is what the table looked like with 30/31 games gone last season. As you can see you could be in 16th place with 29 points.

 

It ended up that 37 points was needed to stay up, so certainly implies you'll need more than that to do so this year. I know Blackpool managed to go down with 39 recently and if you look here:

 

http://stats.football365.com/2003/ENG/PR/overview.html

 

...you'll see that in 02/03 West Ham went down with as many as 42! (and would have still been relegated on GD with 44!!!)

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Villa winning today does us few favours. Looking pretty good too; apparently if they win this that would 3 on the spin for them. Sunderland seem to have acted to prevent their freefall, and looking at their run in they have a number of very winnable games. I can still see the battle for 17th and above going right down to the wire, anyone from us down is still very much in it.

 

I don't think Sunderland's fixtures are all that great personally. Stoke and Saints at home are probably their most realistic wins in that lot but the way they have been playing you wouldn't put money on it. They have a trip to Chelsea next then a local derby at SJP. Everton at home will be tricky as will the trip to Villa Park.

 

I'd take our fixtures over theirs any day of the week.

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I don't think Sunderland's fixtures are all that great personally. Stoke and Saints at home are probably their most realistic wins in that lot but the way they have been playing you wouldn't put money on it. They have a trip to Chelsea next then a local derby at SJP. Everton at home will be tricky as will the trip to Villa Park.

 

I'd take our fixtures over theirs any day of the week.

 

This.

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I don't think Sunderland's fixtures are all that great personally. Stoke and Saints at home are probably their most realistic wins in that lot but the way they have been playing you wouldn't put money on it. They have a trip to Chelsea next then a local derby at SJP. Everton at home will be tricky as will the trip to Villa Park.

 

I'd take our fixtures over theirs any day of the week.

 

I don't think there's much in the two fixture lists; they have Chelsea away next, which I don't think they'll get anything from. But the Newcastle derby game can always go one way or the other whatever the form of the two sides, they'll view home games against us and Stoke as must wins, and an away trip to Villa provides a potential for an away win. Tottenham away on final day could also depend on what Spurs need from that game; if they've qualified for the CL spots already then anything could happen.

 

I'd much prefer to be in our situation than their's, of course. And with our side. Losing Fletcher for the rest of the season could be the real blow for them. In any case, I think anyone from us down is right in the mix so I wouldn't want to solely pick out Sunderland as out threat, it could be any of them at this rate.

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It's a pretty mental league table at the moment.

 

Arguably there are only three teams with nothing to play for as we enter April - West Brom, Swansea and, bizarrely, Man Utd. Maybe Man city as well - who seem near certain of top 4, but have no chance of winning the title.

 

I still don't think it will require as many as 40 points to stay up.

 

If you treat QPR and Reading as doomed, surely there's a good chance that at least one of the other teams towards the bottom will go on a pretty horrible run - something like W 1 D 2 L 4, which would mean somewhere between 35 and 39 points will be enough to just stay up.

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nope Villa won't get 41 points from where they are now. 38 will do easily.

 

They have Man United and Chelsea to play, but their 5 other games are all against sides in the bottom 8. They really should have got something out of today's game.

 

Even if I were having a free bet for who will go down in 18th, I wouldn't have a clue who to pick. Originally didn't think Wigan would make it, but I thought that a couple of weeks ago and they just keep on winning.

Edited by The Kraken
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Being fairly generous to our rivals, I would predict:

 

Villa

Beat Sunderland and Fulham at home

Draw at Wigan, Norwich and Stoke

Lose vs Man Utd and Chelsea

39 points.

 

Wigan

Beat Swansea and QPR

Draw with WBA, West Ham, Villa, Spuds

Lose to Man City and Arsenal

40 points

 

Sunderland

Beat Saints and Stoke

Draw with Everton and Newcastle

Lose against Spurs, Villa and Chelsea

39 points

 

All just educated guess work.

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17th Wigan 31 points - 8 games to play

.......................................

18th Aston Villa 30 points - 7 games to play

 

Last game of the season sees Wigan vs Villa, so points will be lost somewhere from that game.

 

It won't need 40 points to stay up this season, even if Villa and Wigan go on amazing runs all the other sides below 12th place Saints won't as they will be taking points off each other.

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It's a pretty mental league table at the moment.

 

Arguably there are only three teams with nothing to play for as we enter April - West Brom, Swansea and, bizarrely, Man Utd. Maybe Man city as well - who seem near certain of top 4, but have no chance of winning the title.

 

I still don't think it will require as many as 40 points to stay up.

 

If you treat QPR and Reading as doomed, surely there's a good chance that at least one of the other teams towards the bottom will go on a pretty horrible run - something like W 1 D 2 L 4, which would mean somewhere between 35 and 39 points will be enough to just stay up.

 

This

 

With 8 teams in the mix from 11th to 18th at least one of them will only gain 4 points or less meaning 38 should do it with our goal difference! I will be surprised if all 8 end up on more than 40 points (given there are many fixtures between the two it is probably already highly unlikely if not yet impossible)

 

This is why the more teams in the mix the better! also our GD is worth a point against at least 4 of them if not more!

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Reckon 37 will have good chance of putting us above all of Wigan, Sunderland and Villa.

 

Maybe one of them will hit that figure but doubt all three, can see one of those at least being below 35.

 

Reckon one win could be plenty, not just to stay up but to be safe before last weekend.

 

Noticed that since Arry arrived QPR haven't gained points on any of teams they needed to for safety, infact couple, including us, dropped considerably further away.

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Slightly off topic, but broadly on the same theme, I was trying to work out how it WON'T go the last game of the season.

 

Because Wigan and Villa play each other on the final day, if we go into the 38th game level with one of those teams and a single point ahead of the other, we are mathematically safe (assuming there isn't some utterly mental change to goal difference).

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Reckon 37 will have good chance of putting us above all of Wigan, Sunderland and Villa.

 

Maybe one of them will hit that figure but doubt all three, can see one of those at least being below 35.

 

Reckon one win could be plenty, not just to stay up but to be safe before last weekend.

 

Noticed that since Arry arrived QPR haven't gained points on any of teams they needed to for safety, infact couple, including us, dropped considerably further away.

 

If that's right - and it maybe - we are safe already. (making certain, very reasonable assumptions about goal difference)

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