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Malaysia Airlines plane missing


melmacian_saint

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If a bomb/explosion took out the comms and killed or impaired the pilots whilst damaged the cockpit couldn't that explain the erratic flying?

 

If a passenger or flight attendant is trying to fly a damaged plane without any help it's probably gonna end up with some weird results.

 

Yes and no. I would think the damage could be wide reaching, incapacitate the pilots etc, however the turn back heading for 1 hour 20 minutes then a course change doesn't add up.

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If a bomb/explosion took out the comms and killed or impaired the pilots whilst damaged the cockpit couldn't that explain the erratic flying?

 

If a passenger or flight attendant is trying to fly a damaged plane without any help it's probably gonna end up with some weird results.

 

Bomb could explain it, detonate a bomb that impairs the flight deck causing extensive damage and possibly life threatening injuries also impairing the comms etc

 

Someone attempts to turn and continue on, perhaps an injured pilot but succumbs to injury ?

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So , plane continues to fly for seven hours or so with no ACARS, IFF or more importantly, comms? Did anybody else see the programme on Channel 4 last night? Nothing much new except a comment that the turn to port and routing over the Malay peninsular took the aircraft along the borders between all the ATC areas of responsibility and at an altitude of 29,500 feet which they said was also on the boundary of control boxes so I'd appreciate one of our resident pilots commenting on this aspect. There are several aspects of this whole business that raise alarm bells with me. The pilot had a flight simulator at home, he had been practising landings on several runways to the west and north of where they started, he had deleted a lot of files just before leaving for this flight. The IFF is turned off and possibly the ACARS at the same time (it certainly doesn't report any more) just before the co-pilot signs off from Malaysian ATC with "ok, good night" which seems somewhat informal to some. They twice reported that they had reached 39,500 (I think) ft. Wouldn't they normally only do this once?

 

My theory, for what it's worth, is that the pilot/crew wanted to make a political statement by taking the aircraft with its passengers somewhere to the north and keeping them hostage. Then something went wrong, maybe a fire, maybe decompression, and the aircraft continues in autopilot until the fuel runs out, or it's shot down.

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You have my utmost unconditional respect for the Indonesian incident, which is one of legendary stories in aviation history. Where I disagreed with you, and still disagree is that Inmarsat have a GPS location for the plane. Thats very different from what you're saying now which is that Government intelligence services probably have additional info about the flight. No-one on this thread has disputed that.

 

I have been out all day watching my grandson play football, more pleasurable than watching the 'P team, although in the 1950's I admit to going to Krap Notarf on occasions, but then rivalry was not as vicious, Oh and by the way I first went to the Dell in 1946!!!'

 

However to answer the above quote I have not changed what I have been saying throughout this whole incident which is that I have no idea what has happened as lots of things do not add up.

 

What I wrote was twofold and separate. I can only repeat what I have been told and explained to me by an Inmarsat executive, that before a 'ping' is received the transmitter must have obtained a GPS fix which it transmits to the receiver before contact can be established, if that is not correct, and I will be very surprised if it isn't, then, unlike some, I will apologise but I pass on what I have been told in good faith.

 

The second matter which is unrelated to the first was that it is my view that some government or agency may know something which they wish to keep to themselves for the time being, based on my experience could be so, it took me 11 years to discover the reason for happenings in 1982 because of secret surveillance by the US. Technology in 32 years has advance beyond my comprehension, so goodness knows what they are capable of now.

 

Without a doubt the pilots on this aircraft are on a hiding to nothing. The poor pilot is always behind the eight-ball when involved in an incident. The attitude is usually 'you're guilty now prove yourself innocent' I think it is unlikely that these two are alive and will therefore get the blame, it is the easiest way out for the authorities. In my 15 years as Chairman of the BALPA Legal Committee we had many instances of this approach, which we had to defend, often with success.

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Thanks for taking the time to post your comments, West Stand, any info is interesting. One more question that you professionals may be able to answer. I heard someone say that if there were a fire then the pilots would use special masks and that these had their own microphones. Is it possible that the crew could have 'forgotten' to plug these in if they were overcome by circumstances?

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Thanks for taking the time to post your comments, West Stand, any info is interesting. One more question that you professionals may be able to answer. I heard someone say that if there were a fire then the pilots would use special masks and that these had their own microphones. Is it possible that the crew could have 'forgotten' to plug these in if they were overcome by circumstances?

 

The flight crew oxygen masks are indeed fitted with a microphone, allowing the pilots to communicate with each other, ATC, passengers and cabin crew if needs be. The mic doesn't have to be 'plugged' in but there is a switch on the radio controls to switch between 'boom' (i.e. the microphone on the normal head sets) and the oxygen mask.

 

You would know if you didn't have the mask mic selected as you wouldn't be able to hear your own voice in your headset (also the other guy wouldn't be able to hear you.) If used the oxygen mask a few times in the simulator. Even then it was an unpleasant and uncomfortable experience. Not something I want to experience in real life. The sound of your breathing is very loud and scratchy over the pilot intercom and it makes communicating hard.

 

They would only be using the masks if there was a cabin altitude warning alert, or smoke/fumes in the cockpit.

 

HTH.

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I have been out all day watching my grandson play football, more pleasurable than watching the 'P team, although in the 1950's I admit to going to Krap Notarf on occasions, but then rivalry was not as vicious, Oh and by the way I first went to the Dell in 1946!!!'

 

What I wrote was twofold and separate. I can only repeat what I have been told and explained to me by an Inmarsat executive, that before a 'ping' is received the transmitter must have obtained a GPS fix which it transmits to the receiver before contact can be established, if that is not correct, and I will be very surprised if it isn't, then, unlike some, I will apologise but I pass on what I have been told in good faith.

 

Im glad you enjoyed the game. My first Dell trip was 1970 and my dirty secret is that I had a family member who was an apprentice at Pompey - so not too different ...

 

My understanding is slightly different to yours - in that whilst I don't dispute that the plane is capable of determining its GPS location and transmitting that data to the satellite - it is not part of the handshake ping. The GPS handshake requirement for satellite phones (albeit low orbit phones dont require it) is related to a number of factors - a phone is stationary and has a small aerial and weak transmitter - so the satellite needs a fix to determine which spot beam the phone sits within. These factors don't apply in aviation - you cant use / dont need spot beam (akin to a terrestial cell phone structure) because of the planes high speed, more powerful transmitter / aerial and the fact they pay per flight. They use a global beam. The person who told me this is equally credible. That said perhaps I misunderstood what he told me, or perhaps you misunderstood what your contact told you. Like you Im happy to apologise if that turns out to be the case. Thats the beauty of forums.

Edited by buctootim
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Link to an episode of Air Crash Investigation that covers the incident here if anyone's interested:

 

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x18ugux_mayday-s04e02-falling-from-the-sky-all-engines-failed_shortfilms

 

Wow, that is heroic stuff. Well done West stand Apologies if any of my posts offended, weren't meant to. I'm just not a big fan of some of the paranoid conspiracy theories flying around. You obviously know your stuff!

Edited by aintforever
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As the tone of this thread has changed I would just like to relate something I was told last evening by a Mandarin speaker whom I have known for more than 30 years. Apparently some Chinese newspapers are carrying a story which I have not seen or heard anywhere else, it is of course speculation.

The theory they are promulgating is that because the Captain on MH370 was unhappy over the treatment the leader of the opposition in Malaysia, to whom he is related in some way, he hijacked his own aeroplane and flew it back towards the Malaysian peninsula keeping it in the air but negotiating, or trying to negotiate, with the Malaysian Government for the opposition leader’s release from prison. The Government would not negotiate so he continued flying southwards until the fuel ran out.

As I wrote above this is pure speculation but is feasible and is as good as most theories being advanced.

As for the references to ‘badger’s asses unless one has read the correct quote in the article on my website, written by another BA Captain and the best written on the incident, the whole story is that in 1982 the Mail on Sunday sent a couple of cub reporters to interview me on behalf of the Mail’s Air Correspondent. They were quite amateurish in their approach and kept saying ‘give us a quote on that’. I found them boring and when bored I can be flippant so when I described the landing into Jakarta on a very dark night, with no forward visibility except a couple of inches down the left extreme edge of my windscreen, no radio aids working, flying on three of my four damaged engines so I needed my feet on the rudders and I couldn’t reach the throttles if I wanted to see out, as I was dependent on Mark 1 eyeballs, when these idiots asked me for a quote I retorted I would give them a quote if they promised to print it, they said they would. I then gave them the quote ‘that it was like trying to negotiate your way up a badger’s ass’. They were amused but quickly said they couldn’t publish it. The story was syndicated however, without my correct quote, and the Daily Telegraph picked it up and their headlines the next day to the article were ‘Captain says that entering the volcanic ash cloud it was as black as a badger’s backside’. Well not only was it a pitch black night so we could see nothing I had not said this. However it caused my Dad who lived in this part of the world all his life and had farming connections to call me and ask me what I was on about as I knew that a badger’s ass was pink. Whole story but it shows how one can be misquoted.

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Interesting theory West Stand, certainly fits with many of the known facts and would also explain why the plane made the final left turn southwards & didn't carry on straight into the Indian Ocean (it's effectively circling KL for about 4-5 hours I would guess) assuming that it has flown the southern track.

 

Liking the background to the badger's ass story. As you say, shows how easy it to be misquoted, and how much faith you should put in the press in this country.

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Interesting theory West Stand, certainly fits with many of the known facts and would also explain why the plane made the final left turn southwards & didn't carry on straight into the Indian Ocean (it's effectively circling KL for about 4-5 hours I would guess) assuming that it has flown the southern track.

 

Liking the background to the badger's ass story. As you say, shows how easy it to be misquoted, and how much faith you should put in the press in this country.

 

Yes indeed. I too have been misquoted in the press at a very local level, in fact they used a phrase that I hadn't uttered, so I now treat all press reports with a degree of scepticism. Reporters are always told to look for 'the story' and if they don't find one they are likely to invent one.

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Thank you derry, Weston , and west stand and loo for your very informative posts . It's good to hear the more technical aspects of being a pilot .

 

I am curious about one thing on the news today . If they can make out that debris is a pallet surely they must be able to identify a much larger peice of debris significantly much larger than than the pallet .? Satellites are able to pinpoint really close up features . Look at the taking of bin laden and identifying the compound house he was in

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Thank you derry, Weston , and west stand and loo for your very informative posts . It's good to hear the more technical aspects of being a pilot .

 

I am curious about one thing on the news today . If they can make out that debris is a pallet surely they must be able to identify a much larger peice of debris significantly much larger than than the pallet .? Satellites are able to pinpoint really close up features . Look at the taking of bin laden and identifying the compound house he was in

 

 

Depends on the type of satellite, those used in "sensitive observation zones" would be of a far higher resolution than most. Don't doubt those used over Pakistan in the track of Bin Laden were KH12s or 13s, enhanced imagery satellites. I believe I read somewhere that some of these images come from "commercial" satellites.

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A few thoughts:

 

Thinking on the difficulty the international SAR effort is having locating the unidentified objects seen on satellite imagery, how embarrassing it would be for our Government if a similiar incident were to occur in the North Atlantic tomorrow. Since the 2010 decision to scarp the RAF's Nimrod MRA4 project without replacement this island nation finds itself in the extraordinary position of having no proper maritime patrol aircraft at its disposal. A scandal waiting to happen perhaps.

 

As for those who consider that the failure to find this aircraft amounts to proof of a conspiracy to hide it, I'm not so sure I can go along with that. I'm just another 'landlubber' but ask anyone who has been to sea and the first thing they will tell you is how truly vast the oceans are. I'm not qualified to comment on the nitty gritty of how GPS etc works but it may well be that if someone who knows what he's doing really wants to lose his plane in the remoteness and enormity of the Southern Ocean then he may be able to succeed in doing just that. A 'needle in a haystack' situation.

 

I understand the aircraft's 'black box's' are fitted with a sonar beacon that will 'ping' for perhaps two months or so before the battery becomes exhausted. If we don't find this 777 within that timeframe then the possibility exists that we never will.

Edited by CHAPEL END CHARLIE
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As for those who consider that the failure to find this aircraft amounts to proof of a conspiracy to hide it, I'm not so sure I can go along with that. I'm just another 'landlubber' but ask anyone who has been to sea and the first thing they will tell you is how truly vast the oceans are. I'm not qualified to comment on the nitty gritty of how GPS etc works but it may well be that if someone who knows what he's doing really wants to lose his plane in the remoteness and enormity of the Southern Ocean then he may be able to succeed in doing just that. A 'needle in a haystack' situation.

 

It's circumstantial, sure - and invalidated the moment that wreckage is confirmed, but if we temporarily discount crash, then we're left with shot down or landed.

 

For me, either outcome would require some form of official complicity, whether that is misrepresenting satellite imagery, radar findings, etc. For me, either outcome needs to plane to be somewhere people are not looking.

 

If you're going to consider either, you have to ask why. The plane hasn't been shot down to provoke an outrage in furtherance of an agenda; no-one has credibly taken responsibility. It's feasible that the plane could have been shot down because of something or someone it was carrying, but that carries a lot of risk. Debris, the chance of being picked up by foreign countries, etc.

 

Apart from the satellite pings, most of the telemetry was unresponsive to remote query. Two possibilities here, irrespective of any of the three outcomes. The systems went down or they were shut down. The pings went on for another seven hours, indicating that at the very least, some part of the plane's telemetry was extant and transmitting.

 

I'm veering toward landed. There is presently no physical evidence to support a crash or a shooting down. There could have been something valuable on that plane. Even the Israelis are looking at landed as a serious option; they fear the plane being re-purposed as a missile for tall buildings in Tel Aviv.

 

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-the-record/2014/03/19/why-israel-sees-irans-fingerprints-all-over-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane

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So , plane continues to fly for seven hours or so with no ACARS, IFF or more importantly, comms? Did anybody else see the programme on Channel 4 last night? Nothing much new except a comment that the turn to port and routing over the Malay peninsular took the aircraft along the borders between all the ATC areas of responsibility and at an altitude of 29,500 feet which they said was also on the boundary of control boxes so I'd appreciate one of our resident pilots commenting on this aspect. There are several aspects of this whole business that raise alarm bells with me. The pilot had a flight simulator at home, he had been practising landings on several runways to the west and north of where they started, he had deleted a lot of files just before leaving for this flight. The IFF is turned off and possibly the ACARS at the same time (it certainly doesn't report any more) just before the co-pilot signs off from Malaysian ATC with "ok, good night" which seems somewhat informal to some. They twice reported that they had reached 39,500 (I think) ft. Wouldn't they normally only do this once?

 

My theory, for what it's worth, is that the pilot/crew wanted to make a political statement by taking the aircraft with its passengers somewhere to the north and keeping them hostage. Then something went wrong, maybe a fire, maybe decompression, and the aircraft continues in autopilot until the fuel runs out, or it's shot down.

 

The SSR wouldn't be able to track the aircraft with the transponder off, it would have required a primary radar to spot it. I still think it wasn't spotted because it was the middle of the night, complacency, incompetence or both on the part of the controllers if they were even awake. Now I bet nobody is willing to admit they had the chance to spot it but didn't

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Its odd that three countries are reporting debris of very similar size and shape but in different locations. First the US report, then a few days later the Chinese 80 miles south and now the French five hundred miles north. Obviously things drift but not that far that quickly and not in opposite directions.

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BREAKING NEWS - The following SMS message has been sent to relatives: "Malaysia Airlines deeply regrets that we have to assume beyond any reasonable doubt that MH370 has been lost and that none of those on board survived. As you will hear in the next hour from Malaysia's Prime Minister, we must now accept all evidence suggests the plane went down in the Southern Indian Ocean."

 

... would suggest that the debris found has been confirmed to belong to MH370.

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A bit more - this is solely based on Inmarsat data it seems, not debris.

 

14:21: Here's the full text of that statement by Malaysian PM Najib Razak: "This evening I was briefed by representatives from the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB). They informed me that Inmarsat, the UK company that provided the satellite data which indicated the northern and southern corridors, has been performing further calculations on the data. Using a type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort, they have been able to shed more light on MH370's flight path.

Based on their new analysis, Inmarsat and the AAIB have concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor, and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean, west of Perth.

This is a remote location, far from any possible landing sites. It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that, according to this new data, flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean.

We will be holding a press conference tomorrow with further details. In the meantime, we wanted to inform you of this new development at the earliest opportunity. We share this information out of a commitment to openness and respect for the families, two principles which have guided this investigation.

Malaysia Airlines have already spoken to the families of the passengers and crew to inform them of this development. For them, the past few weeks have been heartbreaking; I know this news must be harder still. I urge the media to respect their privacy, and to allow them the space they need at this difficult time."

Edited by Minty
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My thoughts and prayers go out to all the families, relations, friends and loved ones of Malaysian flight MH370 which has now been confirmed as having come down in the southern Indian Ocean with no survivors.

R.I.P to all passengers and crew tragically lost.

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It sounds as though Inmarsat were able to work out to the AAIB's satisfaction the aircraft route. It sounds that West Stand wasn't misled and there was more information in the ACARS pings than originally supposed.

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It sounds as though Inmarsat were able to work out to the AAIB's satisfaction the aircraft route. It sounds that West Stand wasn't misled and there was more information in the ACARS pings than originally supposed.

 

It will be interesting to learn exactly what this 'type of analysis never before used in an investigation of this sort' is... clearly it has not been as simple as an actual position fix, but some kind of interpretation and extrapolation of data. As sad as it is to learn of the aircraft's fate, as is often the case with such occurrences, I hope some good will come of it.

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It sounds as though Inmarsat were able to work out to the AAIB's satisfaction the aircraft route. It sounds that West Stand wasn't misled and there was more information in the ACARS pings than originally supposed.

 

Actually it sounds the exact opposite to me. At that location satellite 3-F1 overlaps with 3-F3. They presumably used a new analysis of the ping response times to try to work out the course. If they had GPS that wouldn't have been necessary.

Edited by buctootim
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As the tone of this thread has changed I would just like to relate something I was told last evening by a Mandarin speaker whom I have known for more than 30 years. Apparently some Chinese newspapers are carrying a story which I have not seen or heard anywhere else, it is of course speculation.

The theory they are promulgating is that because the Captain on MH370 was unhappy over the treatment the leader of the opposition in Malaysia, to whom he is related in some way, he hijacked his own aeroplane and flew it back towards the Malaysian peninsula keeping it in the air but negotiating, or trying to negotiate, with the Malaysian Government for the opposition leader’s release from prison. The Government would not negotiate so he continued flying southwards until the fuel ran out.

As I wrote above this is pure speculation but is feasible and is as good as most theories being advanced.

 

there are too many incidents that dont add up BUT this sure sounds a real possibility that explains many of the strange and unanswered happenings of the flight.

 

this will have huge political and international consequences.

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Actually it sounds the exact opposite to me. They presumably used a new analysis of the ping response times to try to work out the course. If they had GPS that wouldn't have been necessary.

 

Or as some have said that they would have problems if the GPS content came out. Sounds like a neat solution.

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I wonder what the atmosphere was like on the plane as this was unfolding, if this WASNT a hijacking situation, and a rogue pilot as suggested above?

 

Were the passengers aware of something happening, or were they all blissfully unaware (hope for the latter).

Did the crew know something was up?

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there are too many incidents that dont add up BUT this sure sounds a real possibility that explains many of the strange and unanswered happenings of the flight.

 

this will have huge political and international consequences.

 

If it was VHF radio - on tape unless switched off/wiped. Presumably HF the same. Satellite phone a possibility but accessible. I can't see how it could be kept secret.

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The theory they are promulgating is that because the Captain on MH370 was unhappy over the treatment the leader of the opposition in Malaysia, to whom he is related in some way, he hijacked his own aeroplane and flew it back towards the Malaysian peninsula keeping it in the air but negotiating, or trying to negotiate, with the Malaysian Government for the opposition leader’s release from prison. The Government would not negotiate so he continued flying southwards until the fuel ran out.

 

Now that we seem to have MH370’s crash-site confirmed, is it possible to calculate for how long such negotiations could have taken place before the pilot headed south? Also, is there a way such negotiations could have taken place discrete from eavesdropping third parties?

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Brief interview on the radio with a representative from Inmarsat, said they looked at the doppler effect of the signals to and from the satellite, and compared this with other aircraft signals in both northern and southern corridors, which led them to conclude that the signals must have been coming from the southern corridor.

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I wonder what the atmosphere was like on the plane as this was unfolding, if this WASNT a hijacking situation, and a rogue pilot as suggested above?

 

Were the passengers aware of something happening, or were they all blissfully unaware (hope for the latter).

Did the crew know something was up?

 

Q1 were they dead or alive. If the aircraft was depressurised, easily done, those not on oxygen would not survive. Only the pilot oxygen would last. The pilot would have to be mad to do that.

 

If alive, as long as the airshow was off nobody in the cabin would know where they were. I've flown with Malaysian cabin crew, they are excellent but very deferential to the pilots especially the captain. However I can't see how the other pilot could be incapacitated without the cabin staff finding out unless he was involved. It doesn't stack up too well.

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If it was VHF radio - on tape unless switched off/wiped. Presumably HF the same. Satellite phone a possibility but accessible. I can't see how it could be kept secret.

 

If it was VHF then anybody could have overheard it and the Americans and others almost certainly did. If Squidgy tapes and others can turn up from (cough) amateur radio enthusiasts then eventually these recordings would seep out.

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Brief interview on the radio with a representative from Inmarsat, said they looked at the doppler effect of the signals to and from the satellite, and compared this with other aircraft signals in both northern and southern corridors, which led them to conclude that the signals must have been coming from the southern corridor.

 

Very neat

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Q1 were they dead or alive. If the aircraft was depressurised, easily done, those not on oxygen would not survive. Only the pilot oxygen would last. The pilot would have to be mad to do that.

 

If alive, as long as the airshow was off nobody in the cabin would know where they were. I've flown with Malaysian cabin crew, they are excellent but very deferential to the pilots especially the captain. However I can't see how the other pilot could be incapacitated without the cabin staff finding out unless he was involved. It doesn't stack up too well.

 

Unless they were all asleep then it's always possible that somebody would have known where they were. The moon was first quarter that night and set at 01:29 so if I read that right it should still have been visible when they made their turn to the left. Then there are geeks like me who look at their compasses or GPS location just out of interest. I flew up through France next to a young boy who gleefully showed me everything we were passing on a map on his phone.

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In a lone rogue pilot or co-pilot scenario, I’m assuming one or other would need to be locked out of the flight-deck – an occurrence which I imagine would be extremely difficult to conceal from the cabin crew and passengers.

 

That would be impossible. The Malaysian cabin crew looked after the pilots really well. If they were locked out of the flight deck they would have been very concerned.

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Brief interview on the radio with a representative from Inmarsat, said they looked at the doppler effect of the signals to and from the satellite, and compared this with other aircraft signals in both northern and southern corridors, which led them to conclude that the signals must have been coming from the southern corridor.

 

Very clever. That means they must have a means of knowing the exact frequency of the replies from the aircraft. There is also the timing of the replies to look at. The satellite sends time slot references telling the object when to transmit and the position within this slot gives some indication of the distance the message has travelled. Unless there was more information involved as has been mentioned above.

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That would be impossible. The Malaysian cabin crew looked after the pilots really well. If they were locked out of the flight deck they would have been very concerned.

 

Exactly, indeed, I understand that it’s protocol for the cabin crew to check on the flight-deck crew every twenty minutes or so to check they are ok. So, in the awful event that this incident did involve a rogue pilot, then, unfortunately, I can’t really see a way in which the passengers would not know about it. Surely, even the most professional of cabin crew would not have been able to hide their own feelings of dread from them.

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Brief interview on the radio with a representative from Inmarsat, said they looked at the doppler effect of the signals to and from the satellite, and compared this with other aircraft signals in both northern and southern corridors, which led them to conclude that the signals must have been coming from the southern corridor.

 

 

TBH the Doppler effect of an aircraft travelling at 600 kph and a geostationary satellite at 36000 km altitude would be minute, absolutely minute so they've done some good work there, if in fact that's what they've done and it's not a simple time/distance equation that was being touted on aviation forums 10 days ago.

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