a typical early season wonder?

I've seen loads of comments in press and other club forums that there are often clubs starting like us then fading away. West From, Newcastle are quoted as starting like us and dropping. However, its not true!

Our performance in first 10 games over last 14 years has only been equalled or bettered by top 5 sides, and not regularly by all of them.

Arsenal have managed a start as good only 6 years out of last 14. On those 6 seasons they went onto finish 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st and 2nd.

Chelsea on 8 seasons, finishing 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

ManU only started this well in 4 seasons, going on to finish 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st.

Man C only once when they won the league.

Liverpool twice, finishing 2nd and 5th.

So funnily, after reading on Liverpool forum that teams often start like us and drop so we can be disregarded as champions league rivals - Liverpool have only managed it twice and are only team to start this well and miss champions league.

Only 6 times in last 14 years have teams had better GD than we have after 10.

Next 10 games? Last season games 11-20, 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. If we match last seasons results against each team for next 10, (assuming wins against newly promoted as won most games against relegated sides) we would have 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats.

I'd love us to continue to turn the expectations of this top heavy league on it's head and I wager most pundits and other teams fans also do

Interesting stats.

It's getting a bit embarrassing now. Just seen some of our lot interviewed on Sky Sports News talking about Europe etc, people saying why are we being disregarded as title challenegers? Come on.. I expect similar to last season to happen.

I'd love us to continue to turn the expectations of this top heavy league on it's head and I wager most pundits and other teams fans also do

It's interesting how the perception has changed, as recently as the last couple of games.

Before, the pundits were a little dismissive and of the patronising "It's nice to see them up thee, but it won't last" school of thought, and who knows, they cold well be right.

But on various football talking shops over the weekend, pundits were saying; "Know what? Wouldn't it be great for the Premier League if they could stay up there?"

Note their main thought is how good it would be for the Premier League (not for us as a club), but also is there a fearful thought in the back of their minds that we could maintain this, and that they are trying to cover all bases so they don't look daft at the end of the season?

It's getting a bit embarrassing now. Just seen some of our lot interviewed on Sky Sports News talking about Europe etc, people saying why are we being disregarded as title challenegers? Come on.. I expect similar to last season to happen.

Well the 11th game was when we dropped off last season, when boruc and wanyama both got injured v arsenal i believe. 11th and 12th games this season should, on paper, yield another 6 points.

It's getting a bit embarrassing now. Just seen some of our lot interviewed on Sky Sports News talking about Europe etc, people saying why are we being disregarded as title challenegers? Come on.. I expect similar to last season to happen.

I think we all expect that to happen. You have to be a bit of a **** to "expect" is to finish top4. Especially with the fixtures we've had.

However, there's not reason to look at examples which Nick provided very well, and hope that we can do as well as those teams, and there are some gaps in the "top7" as Everton, Liverpool Man Utd and Spurs have all started poorly. There's no doubt they'll improve and we'll wobble but top 6 is certainly achievable. Arsenal and Spurs have recently done very well against the poorer sides, but haven't done well against the top top sides, they've done pretty well recently.

Let's just wait and see where we are after the first 19 games. We're all hoping we can disrupt that top bunch, and I don't mean just our fans, I'm sure that's fans all over the country. Would be superb for prem football for us to spoil the party!

Well the 11th game was when we dropped off last season, when boruc and wanyama both got injured v arsenal i believe. 11th and 12th games this season should, on paper, yield another 6 points.

Lovren missed the arsenal game through illness, Boruc did his hand in the following chelsea game, Wanyama suffered a hairline fracture in the Villa game. Spurs were the jammy beneficiaries of of the rash of our injuries -what's new- as we missed 3/5s of our defense/GK but even then and on reflection, we were perhaps unlucky not to get more from a very difficult period (Villa (h), City (h), Everton (a) results spring to mind).

In our quest for top 6, we all point to Man U, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton having a bad start, but why don't we seem to consider West Ham as serious rivals? They have started just as well as us. I think positions 4-9 may well end up being between us and the aforementioned but I'm no more confident we'll finish above West Ham than anyone else. As much as I dislike them, they are where they are on as much merit as we are.

It's getting a bit embarrassing now. Just seen some of our lot interviewed on Sky Sports News talking about Europe etc, people saying why are we being disregarded as title challenegers? Come on.. I expect similar to last season to happen.

Strange reaction...

You are embarrassed by our good start?

Embarrassed that between them both Manchester clubs have only bettered this start 5 times in last 14 years?

I don't think we will be top 4, but we might. Those who arrogantly state their opinion as fact saying we will drop down the table and cannot possibly finish 4th would have just as confidently said this start wouldn't happen.

Football is meant to be about hope and excitememt, enjoy dreaming of Real Madrid next season, don't be embarassed, if we miss out we are only doing same as spurs and Liverpool usually do!

A long way to go, but 10 games ago people were looking at us as relegation candidates, now bookies have us as 6th...

Strange reaction...

 

You are embarrassed by our good start?

Embarrassed that between them both Manchester clubs have only bettered this start 5 times in last 14 years?

 

I don't think we will be top 4, but we might. Those who arrogantly state their opinion as fact saying we will drop down the table and cannot possibly finish 4th would have just as confidently said this start wouldn't happen.

 

Football is meant to be about hope and excitememt, enjoy dreaming of Real Madrid next season, don't be embarassed, if we miss out we are only doing same as spurs and Liverpool usually do!

 

A long way to go, but 10 games ago people were looking at us as relegation candidates, now bookies have us as 6th...

Agree about West Ham - wonder how they'll cope with the changes forced by the Africa Cup of Nations.

Lovren missed the arsenal game through illness, Boruc did his hand in the following chelsea game, Wanyama suffered a hairline fracture in the Villa game. Spurs were the jammy beneficiaries of of the rash of our injuries -what's new- as we missed 3/5s of our defense/GK but even then and on reflection, we were perhaps unlucky not to get more from a very difficult period (Villa (h), City (h), Everton (a) results spring to mind).

Spot on. Cant recall how many games Boruc (and Kelvin) missed. And when Lovren came back he was not quite the same quality (his decline has obviously continued...)

only a couple of months ago. players, staff etc who mentioned that we could challenge for top 4 were 'deluded'

we wont get top 4, we will do well to be top 6 by the end of the year. which is no shame at all

only a couple of months ago. players, staff etc who mentioned that we could challenge for top 4 were 'deluded'

we wont get top 4, we will do well to be top 6 by the end of the year. which is no shame at all

The players and staff aren't the ones talking about. The board are quietly going about their business as they should do and the players are doing their talking on the pitch, not running their mouths off about what we are going to do like some people I could mention, which is exactly how it should be.

The players and staff aren't the ones talking about. The board are quietly going about their business as they should do and the players are doing their talking on the pitch, not running their mouths off about what we are going to do like some people I could mention, which is exactly how it should be.

but how come, you would be deluded suggesting we are more than a top 8 side a few months ago. but now NOT...despite what bertrand, morgan, cortese, koeman would say?

but how come, you would be deluded suggesting we are more than a top 8 side a few months ago. but now NOT...despite what bertrand, morgan, cortese, koeman would say?

It still the usual excitable morons spouting it, look who started this thread for evidence. although this time they have a bit more substance. We've got a deeper and better squad now than last season, what appears to be a better manager so far and in Pelle the striker Osvaldo was meant to be. Throw into the mix that many of the top 7 staples of the last few years are underachieving right now then perhaps the door is more open now than a year ago. However whilst we appear to be stronger now then last season it would still be an incredible achievement to finish top 6 and still depends on a lot going right for us and wrong for bigger clubs than us.

It still the usual excitable morons spouting it, look who started this thread for evidence. although this time they have a bit more substance. We've got a deeper and better squad now than last season, what appears to be a better manager so far and in Pelle the striker Osvaldo was meant to be. Throw into the mix that many of the top 7 staples of the last few years are underachieving right now then perhaps the door is more open now than a year ago. However whilst we appear to be stronger now then last season it would still be an incredible achievement to finish top 6 and still depends on a lot going right for us and wrong for bigger clubs than us.

Pretty much bang on. Although for some it seems negative to dare to suggest we might only finish 8th, which would make it another good season. To do better we will need a good bit of luck. It's unlikely, but certainly not impossible

The stats might say one thing but fact is we have had a freakishly kind set of fixtures. We are a quarter of the season gone and yet to play Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Everton or Man City. In the Premier League it's as much about who you play as how you play.

At the moment we are that old nag who is leading the Grand National at the 3rd fence, the one that always ends up last or face-planting at Becher's Brook. We may be the real deal but it is too early to tell.

oh man.. I didn't want to see that. Some seriously bad juju there.

The stats might say one thing but fact is we have had a freakishly kind set of fixtures. We are a quarter of the season gone and yet to play Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Everton or Man City. In the Premier League it's as much about who you play as how you play.

I've seen a lot bring this up, doesn't really hold water.

So far this season against the lesser teams...

- Man Utd have dropped points this season to Burnley, Swansea, Leicester, West Brom and Sunderland.

- Man City have played Stoke at home and West Ham away - they got 0 points and Saints got 6 points from the same games.

- Arsenal have dropped points to Hull and Leicester.

- Liverpool have dropped points to Newcastle, Hull, Aston Villa and West Ham.

- Spurs have dropped points to Newcastle, Sunderland and West Brom.

- Everton have dropped points to Crystal Palace, Swansea and Leicester.

Saints have beaten all of the "lesser" teams they've played so far apart from the draw against West Brom. It is a skill to do that and is something Saints are doing better than a number of the big sides.

Arsenal last season made 4th place not from results against the big sides (which they didn't do well in), but from beating the smaller sides regularly.

85% chance of CL next year!

I've seen a lot bring this up, doesn't really hold water.

 

- Man Utd have dropped points this season to Burnley, Swansea, Leicester, West Brom and Sunderland.

- Man City have played Stoke at home and West Ham away - they got 0 points and Saints got 6 points from the same games.

- Arsenal have dropped points to Hull and Leicester.

- Liverpool have dropped points to Newcastle, Hull, Aston Villa and West Ham.

- Spurs have dropped points to Newcastle, Sunderland and West Brom.

- Everton have dropped points to Crystal Palace, Swansea and Leicester.

 

Saints have beaten all of the "lesser" teams they've played so far apart from the draw against West Brom. It is a skill to do that and is something Saints are doing better than a number of the big sides.

Aston villa were second, they then played 6 of last seasons top 7 and now they are 15th

I've seen a lot bring this up, doesn't really hold water.

 

So far this season against the lesser teams...

 

- Man Utd have dropped points this season to Burnley, Swansea, Leicester, West Brom and Sunderland.

- Man City have played Stoke at home and West Ham away - they got 0 points and Saints got 6 points from the same games.

- Arsenal have dropped points to Hull and Leicester.

- Liverpool have dropped points to Newcastle, Hull, Aston Villa and West Ham.

- Spurs have dropped points to Newcastle, Sunderland and West Brom.

- Everton have dropped points to Crystal Palace, Swansea and Leicester.

 

Saints have beaten all of the "lesser" teams they've played so far apart from the draw against West Brom. It is a skill to do that and is something Saints are doing better than a number of the big sides.

 

Arsenal last season made 4th place not from results against the big sides (which they didn't do well in), but from beating the smaller sides regularly.

All teams will drop points against so called lesser sides but fact is it is harder to pick up points against teams like Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City - it doesn't matter who you are.

I'm not saying we won't, but until we play a good team we cannot judge.

The stats might say one thing but fact is we have had a freakishly kind set of fixtures. We are a quarter of the season gone and yet to play Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Everton or Man City. In the Premier League it's as much about who you play as how you play.

 

At the moment we are that old nag who is leading the Grand National at the 3rd fence, the one that always ends up last or face-planting at Becher's Brook. We may be the real deal but it is too early to tell.

I normally agree with what you write but this time I do disagree.

I fully appreciate that we have to play many of the " big clubs" but at the moment is that a problem? Do Everton scare you atm? They certainly do not scare me. Man U have an awful away record this season so we should not suppose that we will lose when we play them at home in a few weeks time. We have already won at the Emirates this season so should not be assuming that we will lose when we go there. Man City are wobbling lately so again, I do not fear them.

Chelsea may be a different proposition but I feel that 6 points against Leicester and Villa is what we need to concentrate on. If we get those so we end up with 28 points after 12 games, we can even afford to drop some points against the "big" clubs and still be challenging at the top of the table.

On a point of pedantry , the Grand National is over 30 fences. As we are now over a quarter of the way through the season, we are the nag at the front of the field after 8 fences not 3 - and Bechers has been safely negotiated the first time round and we are still at the front of the field. :-)

...

I've seen loads of comments in press and other club forums that there are often clubs starting like us then fading away. West From, Newcastle are quoted as starting like us and dropping. However, its not true!

 

Our performance in first 10 games over last 14 years has only been equalled or bettered by top 5 sides, and not regularly by all of them.

 

Arsenal have managed a start as good only 6 years out of last 14. On those 6 seasons they went onto finish 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st and 2nd.

 

Chelsea on 8 seasons, finishing 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

 

ManU only started this well in 4 seasons, going on to finish 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st.

 

Man C only once when they won the league.

 

Liverpool twice, finishing 2nd and 5th.

 

So funnily, after reading on Liverpool forum that teams often start like us and drop so we can be disregarded as champions league rivals - Liverpool have only managed it twice and are only team to start this well and miss champions league.

 

Only 6 times in last 14 years have teams had better GD than we have after 10.

 

Next 10 games? Last season games 11-20, 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. If we match last seasons results against each team for next 10, (assuming wins against newly promoted as won most games against relegated sides) we would have 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats.

You do realise on this forum the other day you predicted us to lose all our forthcoming games against the big boys (including Everton) and for us to only achieve 9 points from the next 10 games (this was last week so included Hull) which in itself is relegation form but in our case would get to a points per game rate after 20-odd games that would land us at about 8th across a full season.

So one of the forums predicting us "fading away" is this one. And one of the people predicting it is, well, you.

I've seen loads of comments in press and other club forums that there are often clubs starting like us then fading away. West From, Newcastle are quoted as starting like us and dropping. However, its not true!

 

Our performance in first 10 games over last 14 years has only been equalled or bettered by top 5 sides, and not regularly by all of them.

 

Arsenal have managed a start as good only 6 years out of last 14. On those 6 seasons they went onto finish 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st and 2nd.

 

Chelsea on 8 seasons, finishing 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

 

ManU only started this well in 4 seasons, going on to finish 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st.

 

Man C only once when they won the league.

 

Liverpool twice, finishing 2nd and 5th.

 

So funnily, after reading on Liverpool forum that teams often start like us and drop so we can be disregarded as champions league rivals - Liverpool have only managed it twice and are only team to start this well and miss champions league.

 

Only 6 times in last 14 years have teams had better GD than we have after 10.

 

Next 10 games? Last season games 11-20, 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. If we match last seasons results against each team for next 10, (assuming wins against newly promoted as won most games against relegated sides) we would have 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats.

We have played two teams from last seasons top 6, how did they end ?

Lets not get carried away

I've seen a lot bring this up, doesn't really hold water.

 

So far this season against the lesser teams...

 

- Man Utd have dropped points this season to Burnley, Swansea, Leicester, West Brom and Sunderland.

- Man City have played Stoke at home and West Ham away - they got 0 points and Saints got 6 points from the same games.

- Arsenal have dropped points to Hull and Leicester.

- Liverpool have dropped points to Newcastle, Hull, Aston Villa and West Ham.

- Spurs have dropped points to Newcastle, Sunderland and West Brom.

- Everton have dropped points to Crystal Palace, Swansea and Leicester.

 

Saints have beaten all of the "lesser" teams they've played so far apart from the draw against West Brom. It is a skill to do that and is something Saints are doing better than a number of the big sides.

 

Arsenal last season made 4th place not from results against the big sides (which they didn't do well in), but from beating the smaller sides regularly.

You still have to be able to take points from the top teams, and right now I, aswell as many others, are trying to curtail my optimism by pointing out the fact that we have had a reasonably easy start, and the two top teams we have played we have lost to.

Now, you could temper that with the fact that we have played Swansea a d West Ham and won, both were form teams at the time.

This could be our year, but right now Im looking at the Dec fixtures and holding back my cries of CL..... Hopefully I can start claiming we are the real deal by jan

It is true that we have yet to play any of the established "top" teams but it is also true that we have yet to play Burnley, Palace, Leicester or Villa to name but 4 from off the top of my head. It is also a fact that we have actually beaten Arsenal at the Emirates.

Having said that it is also clear that we lack the depth necessary to compete at this current level for a whole season. Suspensions, injuries and fixture pile ups will hurt us.

However, we are allowed to dream. Chelsea, City and Arsenal are probably the stand out teams this year. Spurs, Everton, Liverpool and United are struggling. 4th place is unlikely but not impossible.

The last really unfancied side to have an extremely good season from memory was Ipswich in 2000/01 when they finished 5th with 66 points which was an astonishing points total for a club of that size. For large parts of the season they were up in 3rd and only fell down to 5th in May. That was under Burley, but think they got relegated the next season.

The last really unfancied side to have an extremely good season from memory was Ipswich in 2000/01 when they finished 5th with 66 points which was an astonishing points total for a club of that size. For large parts of the season they were up in 3rd and only fell down to 5th in May. That was under Burley, but think they got relegated the next season.

They did indeed. Always remember watching them play inter Milan in the San Siro with 10k Ipswich fans there feeling very envious. Although they didn't go down, they went down because whiskey George signed greats like Findi George.

Jamie Carragher said on Monday Night Football that we have no chance of finishing top 6 cos United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton will all come good.

Thats good enough for me, Jamie knows best

The last really unfancied side to have an extremely good season from memory was Ipswich in 2000/01 when they finished 5th with 66 points which was an astonishing points total for a club of that size. For large parts of the season they were up in 3rd and only fell down to 5th in May. That was under Burley, but think they got relegated the next season.

Bolton also came sixth in 2005 and Fulham finished 7th in 2009 - both good enough to qualify for Europe.

Do think Everton's 4th place finish in 2005 was also very much against the odds, especially when you look at how limited and workmanlike their squad was (one that could only muster a 11th place finish the following season).

Jamie Carragher said on Monday Night Football that we have no chance of finishing top 6 cos United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Everton will all come good.

 

Thats good enough for me, Jamie knows best

And the Sunday Supplement guys (per the other thread) said pretty much the opposite, even speculating that the lack of pressure on us - because we are not a big name club - is part of the reason for our success

It's getting a bit embarrassing now. Just seen some of our lot interviewed on Sky Sports News talking about Europe etc, people saying why are we being disregarded as title challenegers? Come on.. I expect similar to last season to happen.

Not sure on that Griffo, I said when we hired Poch that he had a poor record with injuries due to his intensive style. Before him, with Adkins we had a great record... it was therefore no surprise when the double training and high intensity record took its toll with injuries.

This year we have a stronger squad, better football and a lower intensity.

If that adds up to the exact same thing as last season then you're living in a very negative perspective.

With this start, we should be appalled with not getting a top 6 finish.

We are currently 8 points clear of dropping out of the top 4 to "traditional top 4 teams" (Liverpool), and 9 points to united.

I doubt we will have a better chance to get top 4, let alone top 6.

Even if the trad top clubs "come good" that doesn't necessarily mean we'll drop down the table -- if we "stay good" we'll still be up there.

Ifs, buts and maybes.

I'm just enjoying it.

Out of interest, as I genuinely cant remember if the rule was changed or not

Do champions league winners now get an extra spot in the CL draw ? So if Chelsea win it, does 5th place get an entry into the qualifying section ?

Im aware at the time of chelsea winning it didnt work that way

I imagine last season's top 7 will end up this year's top 7 - the usual suspects every year. That makes 8th place the best of the rest - last year, that was us.

I cannot see this year being any different - we're in a mini-league with West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea and a couple of others, and so far this season we're better than all of them, so we might sneak a higher finish if one or more of the top 7 doesn't hit form - Spurs and Everton looking likeliest.

Either way, I'm loving being a Saint right now and am just enjoying it for what it is - great football week in, week out.

Out of interest, as I genuinely cant remember if the rule was changed or not

 

Do champions league winners now get an extra spot in the CL draw ? So if Chelsea win it, does 5th place get an entry into the qualifying section ?

 

Im aware at the time of chelsea winning it didnt work that way

Not that simple (not simple at all!!!) according to whoever edited the Wikipedia page:

Distribution (2014–15)

Since the title holders (Real Madrid) qualified for the Champions League group stage through their domestic league, the group stage spot reserved for the title holders is vacated, and the following changes to the default allocation system are made:

 

The champions of association 13 (Switzerland) are promoted from the third qualifying round to the group stage.

The champions of association 16 (Austria) are promoted from the second qualifying round to the third qualifying round.

The champions of associations 47 (Northern Ireland) and 48 (Wales) are promoted from the first qualifying round to the second qualifying round.

So the Champions of Switzerland are the biggest benefactors, whilst the the Northern Irish and Welsh champions just lose more heavily to someone a round later than normal!

Whilst many might say that we've been lucky with an 'easy' run of fixtures, it could be argued conversely that we've been unlucky not to play more of the big boys whilst they're struggling to find form and we're playing well. I would have fancied our chances against an early season Man City, Man United, Everton and Arsenal. They may all have started to turn the corner by the time we face them.

http://www.espnfc.co.uk/video/espn-fc-tv/86/video/2126352?

More of the same kind of stuff, and then Craig Burley's one-word analysis at the end!

When teams bucks trends it throws the "experts" out. It was so simple to write us off in the summer and now some people are having to re-evaluate SFC. They are doing so by saying we have had an easy start to the season. What I would say back is 18 points off "safety" 10 games in is no mean feat. We have shown a resilience that perhaps we didn't have last year and have more strength in depth. We have shown we can grind out results when needs be. We have shown that we can come from behind. Yes, we will lose more matches but I don't see why this squad need fear anyone. We have lost to Liverpool and Tottenham away by the odd goal. I think we will beat both teams at home. Take each game as it comes, learn from them and move on.

I foolishly played around with stuff related to this instead of going to bed and posted this on my blog: "Ten Games, Twenty-Two Points: What does it mean?"

http://redsloscf.blogspot.com/

http://redsloscf.blogspot.co.uk/

More stats. Since the PL went to 38 games in 1995-96 a team has had 22 points or more after 10 games on 37 occasions.

The 37 times break down like this: Champions = 10; 2nd = 12; 3rd = 6; 4th = 4 (so 32/37 in the CL places).

Then 5th twice, 6th, 9th, 10th

The only example for the "it'll all fall apart when they meet the big boys" view is Wigan in 2005-06. 25 points after 11 games, 2nd place, 5 goals conceded. They then played Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U in succession (who turned out to be that season's top 5), lost the lot and were average for the rest of the season, finishing tenth.

http://www.espnfc.co.uk/video/espn-fc-tv/86/video/2126352?

 

More of the same kind of stuff, and then Craig Burley's one-word analysis at the end!

I didn't realise Eric Clapton was into football.

Strange reaction...

 

You are embarrassed by our good start?

Embarrassed that between them both Manchester clubs have only bettered this start 5 times in last 14 years?

 

I don't think we will be top 4, but we might. Those who arrogantly state their opinion as fact saying we will drop down the table and cannot possibly finish 4th would have just as confidently said this start wouldn't happen.

 

Football is meant to be about hope and excitememt, enjoy dreaming of Real Madrid next season, don't be embarassed, if we miss out we are only doing same as spurs and Liverpool usually do!

 

A long way to go, but 10 games ago people were looking at us as relegation candidates, now bookies have us as 6th...

Well said NG

It still the usual excitable morons spouting it, look who started this thread for evidence. although this time they have a bit more substance. We've got a deeper and better squad now than last season, what appears to be a better manager so far and in Pelle the striker Osvaldo was meant to be. Throw into the mix that many of the top 7 staples of the last few years are underachieving right now then perhaps the door is more open now than a year ago. However whilst we appear to be stronger now then last season it would still be an incredible achievement to finish top 6 and still depends on a lot going right for us and wrong for bigger clubs than us.

Personally I think the squad is so negligibly better than last year it's not even worthy of consideration. Long is better than Guly, Forster slightly better than Boruc, Targett is not the level of cover of Chambers, losing Pelle would be as significant as Lambert last year, despite having Long and Mane (and Rodriguez). We're already without Rodriguez and Ward-Prowse, and if we add another 2 or 3 of the starters to that list over the December period I'll be very surprised if we don't lose some games we might have won with the regular starting side. We're adequately covered in midfield but injuries to any of Forster, Alderweireld, Fonte or Pelle will have an impact, and sometimes it's the recovery rate in the 3 days between games and not just the opposition that is the problem.

Basically if we do better it'll be as much luck due to avoiding injuries as the squad size. We're currently running a tired looking team which is still winning - put that sort of side out against City, Arsenal and Chelsea and we can forget grinding out a win.

I had a little fantasy yesterday about maintaining our position until the end of the season......Then I realised our last game is away to Man City. My heart would just not take that kind of pressure!