What is Forsters shot to save ratio?

Whose to say that Boruc would of been able to save the ones that Forsters missed? And personally I think that Forsters kicking is a big improvement on Boruc, theres been a couple of occasions where it can be argued that he set up goals. As well as his mentality i think he's an improvement. Yes room to improve but he's still young in GK terms...

Whose to say that Boruc would of been able to save the ones that Forsters missed? And personally I think that Forsters kicking is a big improvement on Boruc, theres been a couple of occasions where it can be argued that he set up goals. As well as his mentality i think he's an improvement. Yes room to improve but he's still young in GK terms...

Considering the goal Boruc let in on Saturday, claiming he'd have got anywhere near either of the two FF let in on Sunday is daft.

Well, I'm not going to say it again after this. He's at best, average . There's plenty better out there. Our defence truly does mask his true abilities. Our best goalkeeper is out on loan.

agreed I don't get how anyone can say he is a great keeper, average at best sums him up perfectly, yet to see any evidence of making great saves more than once or twice and his positioning, poor decision making and inability to be agile enough have cost us in lots of games. I don't buy that he's still young either at 26 your not really going to progress any more than you have, he should be at his peak levels now!

agreed I don't get how anyone can say he is a great keeper, average at best sums him up perfectly, yet to see any evidence of making great saves more than once or twice and his positioning, poor decision making and inability to be agile enough have cost us in lots of games. I don't buy that he's still young either at 26 your not really going to progress any more than you have, he should be at his peak levels now!

So are you blind to the fact he has a better saves to shots ratio then those considered the best in the prem aswell as his clean sheets then ?!

Itll be nice to see you be positive about any of our players tbh

http://www.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/premierleague/stats?table=defensive&stat=goalsAgainstAvg#top

 

He has a better save to shots ratio than Hart and Courtois who are the only ones in a reasonable comparison due to the low shots faced.

 

Therefore he is doing pretty well all things considered. Time to start laying off the bloke and looking for things that arent there.

Read nothing into those numbers unless they control for where the shot is taken for which stats do exist. Ideally, you would also take into account how much pressure the striker faced/the difficulty of the shot attempted -both of which are more difficult to measure. Our defense has been so good that I wouldn't be surprised if we've faced more speculative shots than many other teams.

The manager seems to rate him and I would go with Koeman's opinion over those here anyday.

Read nothing into those numbers unless they control for where the shot is taken for which stats do exist. Ideally, you would also take into account how much pressure the striker faced/the difficulty of the shot attempted -both of which are more difficult to measure. Our defense has been so good that I wouldn't be surprised if we've faced more speculative shots than many other teams.

Well feel free to go out and look for those more detailed analysis. Ive managed to find the stats to answer the question of the OP (and I fully expect him to ignore it). Which show me what I knew, that Forster isnt anywhere near as bad a keeper as people are making out.

This all depends on how much you want to look into things anyway, each and every goal will habe someone making a mistake of some description at some point, for instance Liverpools first being Davis not closing down or the second being attributed to Morgans poor pass or Targetts slip.

Funnily enough as a online fanbase we seem to be very picky as to where our overall blame lies, as evidenced in every goal we concede somehow being blamed on forster or Guly being lambasted last season over a goal that in reality was the golden boy lallanas fault.

He's the best we've got, far better than creaky Boruc, and one of the best in the division.

There is no chance he was gonna save the first goal and the second one for that matter.

He is better than Boruc who made lots of clangers last season and still not reached his prime age for a GK and still developing. GK is not an issue for us barring injury to Forster.

There are some aspects of his game which need to improve and they will. It's his first season in the PL which people need to remember. Guarantee you he will get better and better. Look at how De Gea started in the PL.

Posters on here are somewhat unrealistic in their expectations of him this season. Do people expect him to be some 8 armed super machine?!

So are you blind to the fact he has a better saves to shots ratio then those considered the best in the prem aswell as his clean sheets then ?!

 

Itll be nice to see you be positive about any of our players tbh

you are blind to the fact that he's had on the whole a terrific defence in front of him that have limited the shots, he's faced the fewest shots on target of any keeper and when they have been on target he's really struggled and most of them have resulted in a goal, and as for positive I think the new guy Duricic has real potential he had a great first half and tired in the 2nd as to be expected till hes settled in

you are blind to the fact that he's had on the whole a terrific defence in front of him that have limited the shots, he's faced the fewest shots on target of any keeper and when they have been on target he's really struggled and most of them have resulted in a goal, and as for positive I think the new guy Duricic has real potential he had a great first half and tired in the 2nd as to be expected till hes settled in

So like I said, blind to the ratio of saves to shots then....

So like I said, blind to the ratio of saves to shots then....

lol.

Since nobody has actually bothered to answer the question asked, I thought I'd take it upon myself to provide the answer. This is based on the statistics in the link provided by Smirking Saint.

Read nothing into those numbers unless they control for where the shot is taken for which stats do exist. Ideally, you would also take into account how much pressure the striker faced/the difficulty of the shot attempted -both of which are more difficult to measure. Our defense has been so good that I wouldn't be surprised if we've faced more speculative shots than many other teams.

Yes, read nothing into these numbers if they don't agree with your preconception.

http://www.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/premierleague/stats?table=defensive&stat=goalsAgainstAvg#top

 

He has a better save to shots ratio than Hart and Courtois who are the only ones in a reasonable comparison due to the low shots faced.

 

Therefore he is doing pretty well all things considered. Time to start laying off the bloke and looking for things that arent there.

I think you'll find Hart has a better save to shots ratio than Forster.

Since nobody has actually bothered to answer the question asked, I thought I'd take it upon myself to provide the answer. This is based on the statistics in the link provided by Smirking Saint.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, read nothing into these numbers if they don't agree with your preconception.

 

 

 

 

I think you'll find Hart has a better save to shots ratio than Forster.

I did the maths quick

Still bad reading for the forster bashers

Harts stats just got better against Messi.

Having seen that second goal again since my first post on this subject, I'd like to point out that the reason he didn't save the second goal was because the deflection off Fonte took the ball into his dive, slightly towards his body, so his hand was already past the point of where he could use it to stop the ball.

It went in off his wrist just below his hand, and short of having detachable hands or breakable arms there was no physical way he could get his hand onto the ball with his arm fully extended. His only hope was that the wrist blocked the ball entirely, which unfortunately it did not.

It seems to me that FF save to shot ratio is not that good.

Perhaps the percentages will prove me wrong but I wonder if his figures are not as high as many of the other keepers in our league

Er?......do you have another Saints custodian in mind, if you're disappointed with his stats?.

Funny how this threads gone quiet after he was proven to not be too bad isnt it ?

You ain't proved shit, Smirking. Ur dumb stats assume all shots is Equal, although tbf, Forster is actually at slight disadvantage here, because he is the only keeper that doesn't get to face Our Strikers

You ain't proved shit, Smirking. Ur dumb stats assume all shots is Equal, although tbf, Forster is actually at slight disadvantage here, because he is the only keeper that doesn't get to face Our Strikers

No shots are born equal bear, now bugger off and use the bear only forum, you know the rules

oh yeah funny how this forum only becomes No Animals when bros are completely routed by faultless bear logic

No shots are born equal bear, now bugger off and use the bear only forum, you know the rules

You specist bastard!*

*Is specist a word?

Yes, read nothing into these numbers if they don't agree with your preconception

What are you on about, you clown. I haven't been particularly critical of Forster and don't have any fixed preconceptions; just pointing out that shots faced is a very crude measure which it is. It's better than nothing but hardly determinative.

Some go so far as divide the pen box into 46 areas given how far shot location, among other things, determines expected goals and ease of save.

Simplifying somewhat, some have calculated how many shots it takes to score from these broad positions.

One v.quick and dirty task might be to work out how many goals Forster has conceded from outside the box -three from the top of my memory (spurs, swansea and liverpool) and compare them to shots faced outside the box. If we accept that, on average, 1/33 shots is scored from outside the box, Forster will performing relatively well if he's faced over 100 shots and less so if he's faced under 100 shots from this position.

Of course, lots of other things also affected the chances of scoring, as the article from which the charts are derived explains. Either way, the result is the same: it make shots faced an even less reliable measure.

https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/a-shooting-model-an-expglanation-and-application/

Perhaps you'll think about that next time you decide to waste your time on a 5 year old's chart.

 

Perhaps you'll think about that next time you decide to waste your time on a 5 year old's chart.

Are we all irritable with each other because we're still so d*mn annoyed about Sunday? I know I am!

Are we all irritable with each other because we're still so d*mn annoyed about Sunday? I know I am!

I'm usually well past a result by Tuesday morning; but this one is lingering. Pointless aggro over pointless numbers doesn't help the medicine go down either.

I think we can all agree, the only thing that will soothe the pain is for Liverpool to get bum raped by Man City on Sunday. Hopefully with that nob Rodgers getting proper angry into the bargain.

We let in the least goals in the league yet we slag off our goalie ?

Chelsea and City have good defensive records, sit above us, have recognised world class goalies and there goalies have similar stats to Forster.

Stats mean **** all.

Some of the **** team and goalies gave high stats....

Waaah waaah waaaah

So where's your analysis then? You suggest a lot but do none. If we had more data available we would do more analysis but we don't, so we use what we have. The stats have value. Fraser Forster has saved a greater %age of shots than Tim Howard over the season. More data would make them higher value, but we don't have that (or at least nobody has provided). And if you did do that analysis I could point to yet another variable you haven't controlled for. Again, it wouldn't invalidate the conclusions. To paraphrase Voltaire: "Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good".

The original post asked for these stats and here they are. I'm sorry you don't like the formatting of the chart.

agreed I don't get how anyone can say he is a great keeper, average at best sums him up perfectly, yet to see any evidence of making great saves more than once or twice and his positioning, poor decision making and inability to be agile enough have cost us in lots of games. I don't buy that he's still young either at 26 your not really going to progress any more than you have, he should be at his peak levels now!

Sorry I am a bit late here, but could you help me out with a list of the "lots of games" in which his lack of agility etc has cost us please?

Save % is a decent measure of a teams 'luck' (high and low save %s are unsustainable)

Save % over a small sample like 26 games tells you almost nothing about a goalkeeper.

Save % is a decent measure of a teams 'luck' (high and low save %s are unsustainable)

 

Save % over a small sample like 26 games tells you almost nothing about a goalkeeper.

It's not as bad as you might think actually. The 26 games figure is irrelevant, what matters is number of shots they've faced. It doesn't matter if these happened over 100 games or in just 1.

You can measure the statistical significance of the sample size fairly easily. Given that a shot is either saved or not (so follows a Bernoulli distribution), the range of results are typically 60-75% and number of shots faced range from 60-120, the standard error comes out to about +/-5%. It's not great, and I certainly wouldn't use the measure to separate two keepers with similar stats, but given the spread of results is over a 15% range you could separate into a few (perhaps three) tiers of goalkeepers based on their shot stopping this season. Fraser would easily fall within the upper third on that basis.

As has been mentioned many times, the stats could be refined with more data (either going back over more games to add more shots faced and lower the standard error, or additional info to better distinguish between difficulty of these shots).

Also clearly shot stopping is only one of a number of attributes of a good goalkeeper, although it was the one questioned on this thread. For a more rounded assessment of each keeper from the first half of the season, see this article (tho better to avoid if you are a Forster-hater).

http://www.caughtoffside.com/2014/11/29/ranking-the-premier-league-keepers-from-20-1-this-term-man-united-chelsea-men-knocked-from-top-spot/

It is what it is imo he has the most clean sheets in the league you could say he's let in shots that maybe Boruc would of saved but I'm sure he's saved a few that Boruc wouldn't have! Swings and roundabouts imo still fairly young with time to improve still

Complete brick wall today, immense performance. Im not going to lie, he needs confidence coming off his line as he is clearly hesitant but kicking and reactions are excellent

Fair play to him, I doubt we'll see Oldnick

I'm still waiting for that analysis, given his (minimum) 4 stops from all but point blank range...

A goalkeeper shouldn't be judged on his shot to saves ratio.

Primarily, a goalkeeper is able to see everything that is in front of him. If he can then organise his players so that he doesn't have to face many shots, he is doing a great job. This will mean that he will face the occasional shot from distance and the majority of shots from a distance where the attacker is favourite.

There is no denying we are well organised at the back and Forster needs to take credit for this. He needs to work on reaching the corners of the goal at shots from distance but his general saves from shots ratio should not be questioned.

He needs to work on coming off his line, shot stopping not a problem.

He's not going to be a complete keeper though, or he'd be worth £50m, and that's a lot for a League 1 standard keeper.

Complete brick wall today, immense performance. Im not going to lie, he needs confidence coming off his line as he is clearly hesitant but kicking and reactions are excellent

 

Fair play to him, I doubt we'll see Oldnick

I think he is a good keeper but is the most indecisive keeper at coming for the ball I have ever seen playing for Saints in over 48years of watching us. Even katalinic came for the ball more often.

I will never understand why he is so scared at coming to claim a ball. He's literally perfectly built for that job.

Otherwise he's top class and still young. Could easily go on another 10 years for us.

Him and Mane MotM for me yesterday. Best defensive record so far must mean he is doing something right.

He's not going to be a complete keeper though, or he'd be worth £50m, and that's a lot for a League 1 standard keeper.

This is exactly it. We're not going to sign complete players, we're going to sign players who have potential but are a little jagged around the edges. Players that can become 'big players' but are too much of a gamble for the big clubs right now. Mane is another perfect example of this. If Forster didn't have the little flaws that people keep bringing up then he wouldn't be here. He'd be at a big club and would probably be England's number 1.

Forster saves a lot that hit him rather than diving saves

Was saying this to a friend the other day. I've never really known another keeper like it. Think he still deserves some credit, as you rightly say they wouldn't hit him if he wasn't putting himself in the right position.

And often shots hit keepers and go in, or go through them. Forster has a lot of strength so shots come off him. Overall it's been a good first premier league season and he's a good age to learn. If he can get better with the long shots and lower shots he's been a fantastic keeper. Certainly could be one for many years hopefully. He's the perfect level of very good but probably not wanted by 'top clubs'. So now expect a bid from Liverpool.

In fairness, Mignolet who take a lot of criticism has upped his game recently. Still not sold on whether he is the answer for what they will want to be long-term though. Wouldn't be overly surprised to see them, or Arsenal for that matter, in for Cech in the summer.

Agree on FF. I think he's pretty decent, not a world beater (/saver) but certainly not the worst in the league either. Think some criticism of him has been harsh, some goals he's been criticised for letting in on here I wouldn't have expected him to do much about. An example of this was blaming him for either of (some blamed him for both) goals against Liverpool at home.

But can Forster dance?

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td]29 Games Played[/td]

[td]Forster[/td]

[td]Heaton[/td]

[td]Adrian[/td]

[td]Foster[/td]

[td]Boruc (Prem 13/14)[/td]

[td]Hart[/td]

[td]Speroni[/td]

[td]Begovic[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Saves[/td]

[td]61[/td]

[td]74[/td]

[td]79*[/td]

[td]63[/td]

[td]46[/td]

[td]50[/td]

[td]50[/td]

[td]44[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Goals Conceded[/td]

[td]21*[/td]

[td]47[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[td]34[/td]

[td]26[/td]

[td]24[/td]

[td]39[/td]

[td]35[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Saves Per Goal[/td]

[td]2.90*[/td]

[td]1.61[/td]

[td]2.19[/td]

[td]1.85[/td]

[td]1.77[/td]

[td]2.27[/td]

[td]1.28[/td]

[td]1.26[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

* denotes best in each category

Courtesy of Squawka.com

(Boruc also made 3x more errors which led to a goal in 29 games last season than Forster has in 29 this season)

Got to love that third comment

I never thought I'd ever see someone justifying the Manchester City and England keepers worse performance than our keeper being down to him having to play behind a worse defence than ours.

I've been watching us defend on the goal line for years. How times have changed!