The Official Saints European Tour 2015 / 16 Thread - Died Peacefully 27/08/2015

Partizan have just missed a penalty against Steaua, need two to turn that one around with extra time no longer possible.

Partizan have just missed a penalty against Steaua, need two to turn that one around with extra time no longer possible.

Steaua are down to 9 men with 35 minutes left

Steaua have also had a man sent off

Were there coefficients in 2006?

Yes. They've used them since 1979 for seedings in UEFA competitions- on and off (in the UEFA Cup from '94-'98 for instance, but not in 2003/4 which is one of the reasons we drew Steaua in the first round).

West Ham's in 2006/7 was 3.325: http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/tcoef2007.html

Our last one (2003/4 obvs) was 4.7125 - but that's irrelevant as West Ham win IF they count backwards, and we at best draw if the cut off is the last 5 years used to calculate coefficients.

Partizan equalise... still half an hour left.

Steaua are down to 9 men with 35 minutes left

According to my app. But bbc has only 1 red. Now 2-2

Malmo have just had a player sent off, so Red Bull Salzburg are back in with a shout, only need 1 goal...

Jeez what a stupid red card that was for Malmoe - even if I'm Swedish I wish red bull scores now ; )

Steaua goal....offside. FFS.

Partisan lead and surely will win.

Only 1/3 of tonights results going our way.

So, could be Steaua dropping in (as a seed, potentially with us not seeded)... what could possibloy go rong?

So, could be Steaua dropping in (as a seed, potentially with us not seeded)... what could possibloy go rong?

Well.......

Partisan lead and surely will win.

 

Only 1/3 of tonights results going our way.

One of them already in the bag though, so 2/4. Which is about what I expected. Would leave us needing 4 upsets from the 15 games tomorrow (Vojvodina is all but done, so 3 really) and Astra beating West Ham being one of the more important ones with the uncertainty around their ranking compared to us.

Well.......

You may also note "possibloy".

One of them already in the bag though, so 2/4. Which is about what I expected. Would leave us needing 4 upsets from the 15 games tomorrow (Vojvodina is all but done, so 3 really) and Astra beating West Ham being one of the more important ones with the uncertainty around their ranking compared to us.

If we need 3 upsets its pretty tough judging on the first leg scores.

At this stage would be more like 40-60 to be seeded.

How many unseeded teams will he in the draw compared to seeded? I.e what odds of getting an unseeded team if we're also unseeded?

How many unseeded teams will he in the draw compared to seeded? I.e what odds of getting an unseeded team if we're also unseeded?

It's a 50:50 split, one seeded team gets paired against an unseeded team.

Game over, 4-2 Partizan.

Partizan 4-2. Thats Steaua into the Europa then

How many unseeded teams will he in the draw compared to seeded? I.e what odds of getting an unseeded team if we're also unseeded?

22 seeds and 22 unseeded. Even if we're unseeded, some of the seeds are still going to be worse teams than us, but not being seeded runs the risk of us drawing one of the 5 or so sides who'll really be difficult opponents (eg Dortmund, Athletic Bilbao)

We will get west ham

We will get west ham

Cant draw a team from the same country

We will get west ham

We can't.

Malmo - Salzburg game over. Another that didn't go our way

We will get west ham

We can't get West Ham. Teams from the same country can't be drawn against each other until at least the last... 16 I think it is. After Christmas anyway. We can't get Spurs or Liverpool if we make the group stages either.

So we need 3 (or 4 depending on West Ham) results to go our way tomorrow.

Dinamo Minsk if they beat FC Zurich (Minsk 1-0 up with home leg to play)

İstanbul Başakşehir if they beat AZ Alkmaar (Alkmaar 2-0 up with away leg to play)

AEK Larnaca if they beat Bordeaux (Bordeaux 3-0 up with away to play)

Spartak Trnava if they beat PAOK (PAOK 1-0 up with away to play)

Târgu Mureș if they beat St Etienne (St Etienne 3-0 up with home to play, forget this!)

Jablonec if they beat FC Copenhagen (Copenhagen 1-0 up with home to play)

Vojvodina if they beat Sampdoria (Vojvodina 4-0 up with home to play, mental, but that's all but +1)

Kukësi if they beat Legia Warsaw (Legia 3-0 up - awarded, with home to play, forget this one)

Sturm Graz if they beat Rubin Kazan (Rubin 3-2 up with home to play)

Ironi Kiryat Shmona if they beat Slovan Liberec (Liberec 2-1 up with away to play)

Wolfsberger if they beat Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund 1-0 up with home to play)

Željezničar if they beat Standard Liege (Liege 2-1 up with away to play)

Inter Baku if they beat Athletic Bilbao (At. Bilbao 2-0 up with away to play)

Rabotnički if they beat Trabzonspor (Rabotnicki 1-0 up with away to play)

Rheindorf Altach if they beat Vitoria Guimaraes (Altach 2-1 up with away to play)

Another update re: seeding after a not-that great night for Saints.

There will be 15 CL 3rd QR losers and 29 EL 3rd QR winners in the PO Round.

The following teams will definitely be ranked below Saints in the Europa League Play Off Round (ELPOR), if there are 22 of them, Saints will be seeded.

Confirmed:

1. Kairat OR Aberdeen

2. Žilina OR Vorskla Poltava

3. Debrecen OR Rosenborg

4. Thun OR Vaduz

5. Belenenses OR IFK Göteborg

6. Charleroi OR Zorya Luhansk

7. Elfsborg OR Odds

8. Apollon Limassol OR Gabala

9. AIK OR Atromitos

10. Brøndby OR Omonia Nicosia

11. Hajduk Split OR Strømsgodset

12. Krasnodar OR Slovan Bratislava

13. Milsami Orhei OR Skënderbeu Korçë

14. HJK Finland OR Astana

15. Midtjylland (lost to APOEL in CL 3QR)

16. Molde (lost to Dinamo Zagreb in CL 3QR)

17. Qarabag (lost to Celtic in CL 3QR)

18. Videoton (lost to BATE in CL 3QR)

So we need another 4 results to go in our favour from the following matches, with the teams in the left column in the list below winning. Leading sides with a lower coefficient than Saints in bold.

Dinamo Minsk if they beat FC Zurich (Minsk 1-0 up with home leg to play)

İstanbul Başakşehir if they beat AZ Alkmaar (Alkmaar 2-0 up with away leg to play)

AEK Larnaca if they beat Bordeaux (Bordeaux 3-0 up with away to play)

Spartak Trnava if they beat PAOK (PAOK 1-0 up with away to play)

Târgu Mureș if they beat St Etienne (St Etienne 3-0 up with home to play, forget this!)

Jablonec if they beat FC Copenhagen (Copenhagen 1-0 up with home to play)

Vojvodina if they beat Sampdoria (Vojvodina 4-0 up with home to play, mental, but that's all but +1)

Kukësi if they beat Legia Warsaw (Legia 3-0 up - awarded, with home to play, forget this one)

Sturm Graz if they beat Rubin Kazan (Rubin 3-2 up with home to play)

Ironi Kiryat Shmona if they beat Slovan Liberec (Liberec 2-1 up with away to play)

Wolfsberger if they beat Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund 1-0 up with home to play)

Željezničar if they beat Standard Liege (Liege 2-1 up with away to play)

Inter Baku if they beat Athletic Bilbao (At. Bilbao 2-0 up with away to play)

Rabotnički if they beat Trabzonspor (Rabotnicki 1-0 up with away to play)

Rheindorf Altach if they beat Vitoria Guimaraes (Altach 2-1 up with away to play)

Astra if they beat West Ham (2-2 with home to play) - though West Ham have the same ranking as Saints they may be ranked higher on coefficient countback.

We need 4 upsets to be sure. Can't see it myself, reckon we will end up as the best of the unseeded, not that it makes any difference. We'll see.

So after tonight's Champions League ties, these are the teams that lost and drop down into the Europa League play-off round.

Teams with a higher co-efficient than Saints (16.078)

Ajax (66.195)

Red Bull Salzburg (43.135)

Viktoria Plzen (41.825)

Steaua Bucharest (40.259)

Young Boys (31.375)

Sparta Prague (30.825)

Fenerbahce (30.020)

Panathinaikos (19.880)

Lech Poznan (17.300)

And teams with a lower co-efficient

Qarabag (11.500)

HJK (11.140)

Molde (10.375)

Midtjylland (7.960)

Videoton (7.950)

Milsami Orhei (3.750)

At the moment, if all the Europa League ties continue like they did in the first leg, we would be 21st out of the 44 teams so would be a top seed, but it really is touch and go at the moment. There were a few upsets in the Champions League so hopefully that will continue tomorrow in the Europa League.

So we need 3 (or 4 depending on West Ham) results to go our way tomorrow.

 

Dinamo Minsk if they beat FC Zurich (Minsk 1-0 up with home leg to play)

İstanbul Başakşehir if they beat AZ Alkmaar (Alkmaar 2-0 up with away leg to play)

AEK Larnaca if they beat Bordeaux (Bordeaux 3-0 up with away to play)

Spartak Trnava if they beat PAOK (PAOK 1-0 up with away to play)

Târgu Mureș if they beat St Etienne (St Etienne 3-0 up with home to play, forget this!)

Jablonec if they beat FC Copenhagen (Copenhagen 1-0 up with home to play)

Vojvodina if they beat Sampdoria (Vojvodina 4-0 up with home to play, mental, but that's all but +1)

Kukësi if they beat Legia Warsaw (Legia 3-0 up - awarded, with home to play, forget this one)

Sturm Graz if they beat Rubin Kazan (Rubin 3-2 up with home to play)

Ironi Kiryat Shmona if they beat Slovan Liberec (Liberec 2-1 up with away to play)

Wolfsberger if they beat Borussia Dortmund (Dortmund 1-0 up with home to play)

Željezničar if they beat Standard Liege (Liege 2-1 up with away to play)

Inter Baku if they beat Athletic Bilbao (At. Bilbao 2-0 up with away to play)

Rabotnički if they beat Trabzonspor (Rabotnicki 1-0 up with away to play)

Rheindorf Altach if they beat Vitoria Guimaraes (Altach 2-1 up with away to play)

I've a bad feeling Rabotnicki and Altach won't hold on to those leads.

My Shmona and Zelejnicar are next best hope - both have a chance at home with away goals.

Can anyone pool together the likely list of seeded teams if we were unseeded?

We need 4 upsets to be sure. Can't see it myself, reckon we will end up as the best of the unseeded, not that it makes any difference. We'll see.

It makes a lot of difference if we draw Ajax, Fenerbahce, Dortmund or anyone good by our standards as opposed to UEFA's.

Too late, need sleep.

It makes a lot of difference if we draw Ajax, Fenerbahce, Dortmund or anyone good by our standards as opposed to UEFA's.

Indeed. Especially mixed in with PL games. The unseeded group looks fairly poor, the seeded group much more established sides.

Lets hope for some more upsets tomorrow.

Can anyone pool together the likely list of seeded teams if we were unseeded?

Ajax (66.195)

Red Bull Salzburg (43.135)

Viktoria Plzen (41.825)

Steaua Bucharest (40.259)

Young Boys (31.375)

Sparta Prague (30.825)

Fenerbahce (30.020)

Panathinaikos (19.880)

Lech Poznan (17.300)

Def CL loses plus most of these EL seeds are in strong positions...

Bordeaux

PAOK

FC Copenhagen

AZ Alkmaar

St Etienne

Legia Warsaw

Rubin Kazan

Borussia Dortmund

Standard Liege

Athletic Bilbao

Is 20

Plus

Trabzonspor

Vitoria Guimares if they turn their ties around or West Ham...

Yeah of those thete aten't many you would class as a "good" draw, although some tougher than others.

Big, big benefit being seeded. But obviously out of our hands and no seeded team would be hoping to draw us!

Can anyone pool together the likely list of seeded teams if we were unseeded?

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedel2015.html

Astra if they beat West Ham (2-2 with home to play) - though West Ham have the same ranking as Saints they may be ranked higher on coefficient countback.

I don't get this, why wouldn't Saints have the higher coefficient if it boiled down to it? We entered the competition at a later (higher?) stage, so therefore should rank above them. I'd expect that to be the case if it were the other way around.

It makes a lot of difference if we draw Ajax, Fenerbahce, Dortmund or anyone good by our standards as opposed to UEFA's.

What I meant was that it doesn't make any difference if we are the best unseeded or the second best unseeded or the 22nd best unseeded. We will still be unseeded.

Of course it makes a difference if we are seeded or unseeded, otherwise there is no point in this whole discussion :-)

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedel2015.html

Would no doubt be a tough ask if we aren't seeded, however take out the top 4 teams on that list, I think we could give the rest a good game over 2 legs.

I don't get this, why wouldn't Saints have the higher coefficient if it boiled down to it? We entered the competition at a later (higher?) stage, so therefore should rank above them. I'd expect that to be the case if it were the other way around.

Because that's not the rule.

I don't get this, why wouldn't Saints have the higher coefficient if it boiled down to it? We entered the competition at a later (higher?) stage, so therefore should rank above them. I'd expect that to be the case if it were the other way around.

Not sure it will matter in the end as Bilic has reportedly taken a few reserves and a load of development/academy squad players out to Romania and left those that will start their first PL game in England.

Not worried about West Ham. They will probably lose. Even if they don't, I'm sure we will be given the nod (on 22 v 23) if that's decisive.

Am worried we won't be in the top 22 though. That is a (potentially) nasty gig. And I really want group stage.

In true EUFA style, and in the spirit of fairness, under the present rules I think Portsmouth currently have a higher coefficient than Saints.

After reading the last few pages my head hurts......

Top teams we really want to avoid in order to progress???

Dortmund

Bilbao

Fenerbache

Ajax

any others?

After reading the last few pages my head hurts......

It's as simple as this - ensure we get the job done against Vitesse and then start looking at how the other fixtures went. It's about 50:50 as to whether or not we'll be seeded, and if we aren't seeded there is about a 25% chance we'll draw a team against which we won't be favourites in the tie.

Top teams we really want to avoid in order to progress???

 

Dortmund

Bilbao

Fenerbache

Ajax

 

 

any others?

Lets have Ajax we seem to do ok against Dutch teams

Rubin Kazan wouldn't be ideal.

For picking up tickets in Arnhem today, is it done at the ground or at the fan shop?

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