EU referendum

However, the key question is still would leaving make us better or worse off as a nation?

 

Hannan can't answer that question for you - I don't think anybody can.

That's partly why many Leavers see the key question as whether we would be more a less a nation.

Just checked the numbers and the ONS numbers for the same period that the article was written quoted 50% of UK exports went to the EU. I'm not sure what period the article referred to but it's in the same ballpark so not sure why you think it's not true.

 

For the structural funding to areas hit by economic decline, a quick Google from 2013 (the year the article was written) shows that about €10bn was allocated to the UK for structural funding. Again I'm not sure why you think it's all untrue.

I'm not sure if you're on a wind-up or being serious here. A worrying example of some of the population that votes on a subject without understanding it.

The biggest part of the population that doesn't seem to understand are in the out camp, from my observations. once Scotland leave the union and the Welsh get fed up with london based tories and demand an in out referendum, putting the Great back into Britain may be a bit difficult for you regressionists.

I'm not sure if you're on a wind-up or being serious here. A worrying example of some of the population that votes on a subject without understanding it.

The problem with your posts Mash is that you don't actually say anything that makes any sense. Which parts of my responses to your specific question do you have an issue with and maybe rather than just making meaningless comments you could elaborate a little on what your issue is with my response. That way we might be able to have a sensible debate.

The problem with your posts Mash is that you don't actually say anything that makes any sense. Which parts of my responses to your specific question do you have an issue with and maybe rather than just making meaningless comments you could elaborate a little on what your issue is with my response. That way we might be able to have a sensible debate.

What you and I dont understand, and Sour Mash does, is that funding streams like this are all made up.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/projects-creating-jobs-across-england-to-benefit-from-locally-led-funding

His next post will no doubt be to say that since this stream is only for £2.9bn and as the EU costs us more than that, it is unfair and a waste.

"The country would be better off if we stayed in " is interesting . How do you measure " better off " ? Increase in GDP per head of population , increase in average earnings , or just the GDP of the country . Labour fought the last election on the idea that we did have growth , but that growth had made the rich rich richer and the poor poorer . They seem unable to accept the same argument for EU membership . Is it possible that the macro figures show we are better off , but vast numbers of our population are worse off . They are having their wages surpressed by too much supply , the fact that BMW's go up in price is hardly going to keep them awake at night . Prosperity is not a black & white issue , there are plenty of shades of grey and it boils down to gut instinct rather than figures .

 

 

Tony Benn claimed the EU was a rich mans club and it's funny that lefties believe Tories are the devils children , that they will destroy the NHS ,that they do favours for their city buddies , get rich on the backs of the poor, hate the working man , yet believe every single thing they say on the EU . Dave the man who'll sell the family silver , the NHS and crush the poor is working for the good of everyone with his fantastic " deal". Whilst Geoge Galloway , Frank Field , Bob Crow & Tony Benn , who spent their whole lives sticking up for the poor are wrong. Strange days

Is there a 'none of the above' option?

In = corporate big-business, big farming, undemocratic boy's club, free movement of labour (the 'I' word)

Out = swivel-eyed loons, little Englanders, turning back the clock 50 years, neo-con USA arse-wiping

Am I the only one conflicted?

 

His next post will no doubt be to say that since this stream is only for £2.9bn and as the EU costs us more than that, it is unfair and a waste.

that is nice of them, considering we pay more than double that to them per year

Batman's beaten him to it. ?

Any nation that thinks it's a country and can't make it's own laws or manage it's own immigration and is subservient to an organisation like the EU isn't a country it is really a devolved government much in the same way Scotland, NI and Wales have devolved governments within the UK. That is not for me, It's time to dump the EU and go it alone.

Anybody who thinks a nation of about 60m with the fifth biggest economy in the world won't survive or be welcomed to trade with others is ignoring the facts. We don't have to be like Norway or Switzerland if anybody doesn't want to access to our market that's fine, but it won't be Germany or France and really who cares about most of the EU countries whose economies are bust and relying on hand outs a lot of it ours.

The problem with your posts Mash is that you don't actually say anything that makes any sense. Which parts of my responses to your specific question do you have an issue with and maybe rather than just making meaningless comments you could elaborate a little on what your issue is with my response. That way we might be able to have a sensible debate.

The biggest part of the population that doesn't seem to understand are in the out camp, from my observations. once Scotland leave the union and the Welsh get fed up with london based tories and demand an in out referendum, putting the Great back into Britain may be a bit difficult for you regressionists.

Isn't going to happen but England not having to bankroll them would be a bonus. Scotland going alone totally independent without subsidies from England would be from an English point of view really interesting. It would leave England an even richer country of 55m.

The biggest part of the population that doesn't seem to understand are in the out camp, from my observations. once Scotland leave the union and the Welsh get fed up with london based tories and demand an in out referendum, putting the Great back into Britain may be a bit difficult for you regressionists.

What you and I dont understand, and Sour Mash does, is that funding streams like this are all made up.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/projects-creating-jobs-across-england-to-benefit-from-locally-led-funding

 

His next post will no doubt be to say that since this stream is only for £2.9bn and as the EU costs us more than that, it is unfair and a waste.

Apologies if I wasn't clear. For clarification, my point is that it is worrying that someone like you with such little understanding of the basics of the subject will be voting in this referendum. Hope that clears it up a bit.

Yes, I understood that. What I'm still struggling to understand, which I thought I'd made clear in my post, is that you fail to explain what it is that makes you believe I have little understanding of the basics given that I provided you with an answer to your question. You also seem to have dodged my question about what is is about the information I quoted to you, given the sources of that information, that makes you believe it to be untrue. A little explanation of your assertions that people don't understand the basics if they disagree with you would be helpful. Otherwise it just comes across that you're just denying the facts presented without justifying your reasons for doing so.

It's very easy for all of us just to say 'no I don't believe that and because you do, you don't understand' in response to anything presented to them.

Any nation that thinks it's a country and can't make it's own laws or manage it's own immigration and is subservient to an organisation like the EU isn't a country it is really a devolved government much in the same way Scotland, NI and Wales have devolved governments within the UK. That is not for me, It's time to dump the EU and go it alone.

.

Spot on

The fact that to get this great deal Dave had to go begging to Poland , Romania & Germany to let us change our benefit rules , proves your point .

The Remainians are clinging to nurse too scared to let go of the comfort blanket . Good job this attitude weren't around earlier in our history , otherwise the pilgrim fathers may have only moved to Wiltshire .

Nobody can predict the future , will Turkey join the EU in the next 20 years , that would make a pretty unstable future . The only certainty if we stay in , is the certainty that we won't be able to decide who can come and go , who can claim benefits . There will be certainty that that the EU will continue to make domestic policy , continue to tell us what vat we can and can't charge and on what . That sort of certainty is not that of an independent nation .

Yes, I understood that. What I'm still struggling to understand, which I thought I'd made clear in my post, is that you fail to explain what it is that makes you believe I have little understanding of the basics given that I provided you with an answer to your question. You also seem to have dodged my question about what is is about the information I quoted to you, given the sources of that information, that makes you believe it to be untrue. A little explanation of your assertions that people don't understand the basics if they disagree with you would be helpful. Otherwise it just comes across that you're just denying the facts presented without justifying your reasons for doing so.

 

It's very easy for all of us just to say 'no I don't believe that and because you do, you don't understand' in response to anything presented to them.

Yes, I understood that. What I'm still struggling to understand, which I thought I'd made clear in my post, is that you fail to explain what it is that makes you believe I have little understanding of the basics given that I provided you with an answer to your question. You also seem to have dodged my question about what is is about the information I quoted to you, given the sources of that information, that makes you believe it to be untrue. A little explanation of your assertions that people don't understand the basics if they disagree with you would be helpful. Otherwise it just comes across that you're just denying the facts presented without justifying your reasons for doing so.

 

It's very easy for all of us just to say 'no I don't believe that and because you do, you don't understand' in response to anything presented to them.

EEC/EU haven't provided 57% of our trade or funding for areas hit by industrial decline. I'm not sure what else you can be told. The EEC/EU don't provide any of our trade. Regeneration of our cities is funded by British taxpayers contributions to the EU. The EU aren't paying for it, we are.

So, all this time, you were just being pedantic and there was me thinking you had a point to make.

So, all this time, you were just being pedantic and there was me thinking you had a point to make.

Spot on

 

Nobody can predict the future.

 

There will be certainty that the EU will continue to make domestic policy.

While I'm inclined to vote to stay in I've been tempted by a no vote. However, whenever I get close to that thought I'm confronted with the utter drivel of the pram-launched toy brigade of the no camp. I'm not singling this post out, but it is somewhat characteristic of contradictory, knee-jerking waffle I read elsewhere.

So for the sake of everyone's sanity over the next four months, and for some decent debate, can the Brexitites please make at least some effort to come up with a coherent, evidence-based argument?

And there you go again. You clearly don't understand the basics of what is being discussed, more a shame than anything else.

Yes, I understand your point. It's a bit like saying the government don't provide the NHS, or education, but we do as taxpayers. It's what I said, just pedantic and pointless.

Obviously the EU fund all of the services they provide via the money paid by the member states. I don't think anyone thinks they just magic the funds out of thin air.

I just happen to believe that the benefits of being in the EU (which you clearly don't believe any of) are worth the money we pay to be in it.

Yes, I understand your point. It's a bit like saying the government don't provide the NHS, or education, but we do as taxpayers. It's what I said, just pedantic and pointless.

 

Obviously the EU fund all of the services they provide via the money paid by the member states. I don't think anyone thinks they just magic the funds out of thin air.

 

I just happen to believe that the benefits of being in the EU (which you clearly don't believe any of) are worth the money we pay to be in it.

brexit consists of the theese choices by the look of it..make your own mind up.

• One option is ‘doing a Norway’ and joining the European Economic Area (EEA). This would minimise the trade costs of Brexit, but it would mean paying about 83% as much into the EU budget as the UK currently does. It would also require keeping current EU regulations (without having a seat at the table when the rules are decided).
  

• Another option is ‘doing a Switzerland’ and negotiating bilateral deals with the EU. Switzerland still faces regulation without representation and pays about 40% as much as the UK to be part of the single market in goods. But the Swiss have no agreement with the EU on free trade in services, an area where the UK is a major exporter.
  

• A further option is going it alone as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This would give the UK more sovereignty at the price of less trade and a bigger fall in income, even if the UK were to abolish tariffs completely.
  

• Brexit would allow the UK to negotiate its own trade deals with non-EU countries. But as a small country, the UK would have less bargaining power than the EU. Canada’s trade deals with the United States show that losing this bargaining power could be costly for the UK.
  

The fact that you think its just "pedantry" shows you clearly don't understand the basics.

tbf, of all the posters on this thread - for and and anti - you consistently come across as the most clueless.

brexit consists of the theese choices by the look of it..make your own mind up.

 

• One option is ‘doing a Norway’ and joining the European Economic Area (EEA). This would minimise the trade costs of Brexit, but it would mean paying about 83% as much into the EU budget as the UK currently does. It would also require keeping current EU regulations (without having a seat at the table when the rules are decided).
  

 

• Another option is ‘doing a Switzerland’ and negotiating bilateral deals with the EU. Switzerland still faces regulation without representation and pays about 40% as much as the UK to be part of the single market in goods. But the Swiss have no agreement with the EU on free trade in services, an area where the UK is a major exporter.
  

 

• A further option is going it alone as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This would give the UK more sovereignty at the price of less trade and a bigger fall in income, even if the UK were to abolish tariffs completely.
  

 

• Brexit would allow the UK to negotiate its own trade deals with non-EU countries. But as a small country, the UK would have less bargaining power than the EU. Canada’s trade deals with the United States show that losing this bargaining power could be costly for the UK.
  

tbf, of all the posters on this thread - for and and anti - you consistently come across as the most clueless.

The fact that you think its just "pedantry" shows you clearly don't understand the basics.

Same old story... The facts are either made up or propaganda and if you happen to believe any of them, then you don't understand the basics. That's not a great basis on which to build an argument against being in the EU is it?

If that's your argument, I think I'll continue to get my information from elsewhere for my decision making.

Same old story... The facts are either made up or propaganda and if you happen to believe any of them, then you don't understand the basics. That's not a great basis on which to build an argument against being in the EU is it?

 

If that's your argument, I think I'll continue to get my information from elsewhere for my decision making.

No, the "facts" aren't either made up or propaganda, they are made up and propaganda. Do you get anything right?

Well that's not at all pedantic is it? Do you actually have anything constructive to add to the debate because so far I've seen nothing from you.

Well that's not at all pedantic is it? Do you actually have anything constructive to add to the debate because so far I've seen nothing from you.

I've explained to you that the EEC/EU haven't provided 57% of our trade or the funding for our areas hit by industrial decline. I think that's quite helpful to be honest.

Same old story... The facts are either made up or propaganda and if you happen to believe any of them, then you don't understand the basics. That's not a great basis on which to build an argument against being in the EU is it?

 

If that's your argument, I think I'll continue to get my information from elsewhere for my decision making.

two pints get your info from independant sources and don,t post a reply to the guy hes a idiot on a wind up or smokeing some spliff .

Yes, I have belatedly realised that.

Is there a 'none of the above' option?

 

In = corporate big-business, big farming, undemocratic boy's club, free movement of labour (the 'I' word)

 

Out = swivel-eyed loons, little Englanders, turning back the clock 50 years, neo-con USA arse-wiping

 

Am I the only one conflicted?

I'd settle for out but with Corbyn as PM.

If the Tories get in again I rather we had some EU protection from the right whingers.

While I'm inclined to vote to stay in I've been tempted by a no vote. However, whenever I get close to that thought I'm confronted with the utter drivel of the pram-launched toy brigade of the no camp. I'm not singling this post out, but it is somewhat characteristic of contradictory, knee-jerking waffle I read elsewhere.

 

So for the sake of everyone's sanity over the next four months, and for some decent debate, can the Brexitites please make at least some effort to come up with a coherent, evidence-based argument?

But what LD said is fair; one of the stay in camps main argument is the uncertainty of leaving, but there is equal uncertainty to staying in. What direction will the EU take over the next 20 years, who will join, what will happen to the euro zone countries, will a big economy in the EU be in trouble. There has been loads of changes in the EU over the last 20 years.

But I'm with you as I haven't made up my mind and it does feel like the leave camp has more loons in.

I'm coming to the view that there is too much uncertainty in the event of either vote outcome to put too much stall into "evidence". I know that sounds tremendously unscientific but given that, as far as I know, no major country has left the EU or done something analogous recently any "evidence" is most likely to be anachronistic or so heavily inductive as to be "scientifically" dubious in any case.

To me, the question is qualitative more than quantitative.

Few interesting comments from some of the Eurosceptic guardian commenters swimming against the tide.

"I remember when the debate was raging about the UK joining the Euro. The Chief Executive of Nissan said that if we didn't join they would have to close their factory in Sunderland. A decade on and we haven't joined the Euro but Nissan have significantly increased the workforce in their Sunderland factory and commissioned new models to be built there (including a new model exclusive to the US market - last time I looked the US was not in a currency, economic or political union with the UK).

I am sure that Euro membership and EU membership are factors in firms decisions of where to manufacture. But there are also a whole set of other factors such as tax rates, land, infrastructure and labour costs, legislative burden, skill sets and flexibility in the labour market, sunk costs, exit costs and relative levels of productivity and efficiency which also factor into their decision.

As Nissan proves, firms are prepared try to influence debates like this to support their preferred outcome (including through the use of threats) but if that outcome doesn't materialise then they don't automatically follow through on those threats and I remain to be convinced that they'd all rush off to higher tax EU countries which have less flexible labour markets."

"The EU will drop to its knees and offer the UK a political and economic blowjob in the weeks following the Brexit vote.

We would be their largest customer in the world. We are set to overtake Germany as the largest economy in Western Europe. We will be able to recruit migrants from a pool of 6 billion not just 600 million so we will grow even faster than expected.

The day after Brexit the UK becomes the EU's single biggest export market, ahead of China, Japan and the USA. There will be no Norway Model. There will be a British Model. One where you trade with us on our terms or **** right off. Basically.

Reality will bite hard when the board of VW suddenly finds itself potentially losing its second most profitable market territory. If they don't play nice then we can just punch them in the face until they do with trade barriers and encouraging their own anti-EU voters to rise up.

The only thing that really matters is the Germans. They control the EU and they REALLY like selling us their cars. The chairman on VW, BMW and Daimler Benz will not let Merkel damage their key profit centre in Europe by trade tarrif wars. The U.K. made more cars in the North East of England than the entire Italian motor industry last year.

Bring on a tarrif war if you must but it will **** VW all night long

There are no import tariffs on cars into the EU now. That went fifteen years ago. Ford make the Mustang in the USA and sell it across the EU and there is no tarriff.

International car corporations are not here for access to the single market.

BMW makes Z4 and X5's in Alabama and imports them to Europe. Minis in Oxford and exports them to the Continent. The Japs make models here and sell them all over the planet. Why? Because we have really good tax and labour market rules and it makes sense to produce here."

I'll have to check with my son who works for Mercedes, but a mate is awaiting delivery of a new Mercedes, he says that he has been told that his and indeed all right hand drive Mercedes are made or assembled in South Africa he didn't know which.

As to the EU debate, last year in the first two months about 4,000 immigrants came through Greece and 10,000 through Italy, in the first two months of this year 102,500 have come through Greece and 7,250 through Italy. Last year over 1m came through Greece in the twelve months. This is the worst weather of the year over there.

I just can't begin to imagine how many will come into the EU by the end of 2016. It isn't going to get any better in the foreseeable future. The sooner we can get control of our borders the better. The EU sure as hell have no idea how to deal with this, apart from throwing billions at Turkey who will have no problem continuing to look the other way.

If they have EU passports then they can enter the EU, but if they don't then they will be rejected.

2.2M Brits live abroad in EU countries, immigration/emigration works both ways.

The sooner we can get control of our borders the better.

But we do have such control, which is why migrants are stopped at Calais. If we leave the EU, the problem merely relocates to the British end of the tunnel / ferry routes, as there would be no incentive for the French to stop them on their territory, ( unless we keep paying them ). The migrant crisis should be being managed at the point of entry, ie Greece, and that won't change with the referendum result.

But we do have such control, which is why migrants are stopped at Calais. If we leave the EU, the problem merely relocates to the British end of the tunnel / ferry routes

So they'll all buy ferry or Eurostar tickets and jump aboard will they ? If it was as easy as that , surely they would get Ryanair or Easy jet tickets and fly in now . Why aren't there migrant camps at Gatwick or Luton ?

 

2.2M Brits live abroad in EU countries, immigration/emigration works both ways.

And will continue to do so , when we leave . my lad lives in Aus , I lived in The US , Cyprus is full of Russians . People lived and worked abroad before the EU. You don't need to be in a political union to live in a foreign country .

So they'll all buy ferry or Eurostar tickets and jump aboard will they ? If it was as easy as that , surely they would get Ryanair or Easy jet tickets and fly in now . Why aren't there migrant camps at Gatwick or Luton ?

Aside from all the EU wrangles, Im amazed some of them havent bought a used rib and outboard and simply sailed across the channel. We have almost zero patrol ships to stop them.

And will continue to do so , when we leave . my lad lives in Aus , I lived in The US , Cyprus is full of Russians . People lived and worked abroad before the EU. You don't need to be in a political union to live in a foreign country .

I have friends that live in the USA. It took them 12 years on the waiting list to be able to emigrate as they didn't have the necessary points/skills to go immediately.

Certainly people with the right skills or money can go and live in these countries (which is what you're asking for isn't it?) but the more elderly, less well off, people that might choose to retire in the EU for example would find it considerably harder to do so if we're not in it.

I'm sure I don't have the ability to just turn up in the USA, or Australia, or Canada and start working as I do throughout Europe so it is fair to say that emigration to the EU would drop if we're not in it. I suspect that's the point that was being made.

Why wouldn't they? They're not stupid.

 

At least you've stopped making up stuff about EU/Non-EU immigration being the same.

I said nothing of the sort so there's no need for the abusive tone.

What I said was that whether we are in or out of the EU it will not make any difference to the non-EU immigration because so far there has been precious little effort to stop that, and I believe that the bulk of the EU immigration has already occurred. There is no chance that any of these already here will be kicked out and anyway, all that would happen after a Brexit is that the EU wannabes would become rest-of-the-world wannabes and I cannot see the total figures coming down significantly. In theory we control our own boarders at the moment but either can't or won't do anything about it.

Do you really think any of those in the camp at Calais care whether Britain is in the EU or not?

I'll have to check with my son who works for Mercedes, but a mate is awaiting delivery of a new Mercedes, he says that he has been told that his and indeed all right hand drive Mercedes are made or assembled in South Africa he didn't know which.

I posted this earlier. It's only the C class, but all worldwide RHD C class are built in SA. Have been since before the turn of the century. Same goes for 3series BMWs and now I think VW polos.

I posted this earlier. It's only the C class, but all worldwide RHD C class are built in SA. Have been since before the turn of the century. Same goes for 3series BMWs and now I think VW polos.

A friend of mine who works for Toyota was talking about the irony of brand snobs going on about the superior build quality of their 'German' VWs, BMWs etc without realising most of them are made abroad whilst looking down on 'naff' cars like the Vauxhall Adam and Zafira which are actually German designed and built.

I said nothing of the sort so there's no need for the abusive tone.

 

What I said was that whether we are in or out of the EU it will not make any difference to the non-EU immigration because so far there has been precious little effort to stop that, and I believe that the bulk of the EU immigration has already occurred. There is no chance that any of these already here will be kicked out and anyway, all that would happen after a Brexit is that the EU wannabes would become rest-of-the-world wannabes and I cannot see the total figures coming down significantly. In theory we control our own boarders at the moment but either can't or won't do anything about it.

 

Do you really think any of those in the camp at Calais care whether Britain is in the EU or not?

Fact is you haven't got the faintest clue how many people will turn up next year from Poland, Romania etc, nor have our MPs. We don't know and as long as we are in the EU can do nothing about it whatsoever.

Fact is you haven't got the faintest clue how many people will turn up next year from Poland, Romania etc, nor have our MPs. We don't know and as long as we are in the EU can do nothing about it whatsoever.

Not to mention turkey or whoever else they decide to admit in the future.

Or it's like spending your holiday every year for the past 40 in some small guest house in Blackpool. Your friends tell you that there are much better places available for the same price, you could be really daring and actually go abroad where the climate is better and you could experience different cultures and food. But no, that guest house in Blackpool is what you are familiar with. You know where you are with them. It might be grotty and past its prime, and you are bored stiff with it, but it has a dreary familiarity about it. Going elsewhere seems like taking a giant leap into the unknown. It isn't the sensible pragmatic choice.

You could just as easily argue that it's like spending every holiday in a five-star hotel with wonderful food and weather and magnificent landscaped gardens only to go marching out with you possessions tied up in a knotted handkerchief only to end up in an unheated wooden shed in a car par next to Tescos.

Neither analogy has any bearing on Britain and the question as whether we remain in the EU.

Not to mention turkey or whoever else they decide to admit in the future.

There has been a lot of talk about Turkey joint the EU for many years. There has been lots of positive noises but in practice there's no chance of it happening.