Saints V Villa Build Up Thread Capital One Cup

Let's be honest, villa are Shyte this season.

 

We will make a couple of changes but I can't see changes that will raise an eyebrow. Juanmi, gaston, rom, caulker will probably feature

 

Getting knocked out tonight will be a dire result. Going for a 3-1 win in normal time

I think they will be no pushover, and energised after Sherwood's dismissal, perhaps even out to impress Remi Garde or whoever in the crowd. Couple that with a poor team selection and it might be tricky

Is this being televised and/or will it be streamed?

No and no, apparently.

I for some reason have a bad feeling about tonight - cant see us scoring many without Mane, Long or Jayrod available.

Villa with over 3k along will want to show something after Sherwood going.

Tougher game than some think and all about our attitude to this game as anything less than total will see us out.

I for some reason have a bad feeling about tonight - cant see us scoring many without Mane, Long or Jayrod available.

Villa with over 3k along will want to show something after Sherwood going.

Tougher game than some think and all about our attitude to this game as anything less than total will see us out.

Agreed - Villa haven't got bad players, just don't rate Sherwood - They will be up for tonight and will be a tough game.

When it comes to cup competitions I think it’s fair to take it on a case-by-case basis.

 

The infamous Sunderland defeat in February 2014 came in a competition where a maximum of only two of the 'Big Six' would make it through to the 1/4 finals (Spurs and United already out and Liverpool/Arsenal/Chelsea/City running into each other), along with plenty of easily-beatable lower-league fodder guaranteed to make it through.

 

It turned out that had we beaten Sunderland (who played just as weak a team as we did by the way, and would certainly have been there for the taking if we had gone for it), we'd have been two cup fixtures against relegation strugglers Hull City and third-tier Sheffield United away from a cup final against Arsenal that we genuinely could have won.

 

All in all, given the way the cup opened up for us that year, it was a huge opportunity missed for a club of our size and people were justifiably angry.

 

However; this year's league cup competition just hasn't gone that way. The big guns have all avoided each other, we haven't got as strong as squad as we did two years ago and aren't as liberated from the perils of a potential relegation battle as we were then.

 

As such, in this case I'd be happy to play a second-string team. If we 'wake up' in the Semi-Finals then of course, let's go for it, but it looks very likely that we'll simply be faced with a run of big clubs that will prove to be a bit of a brick wall.

What a complete load of tosh this post now looks.

How so?

All of the bolded is just a series of facts, so I presume you don't take issue with that.

With regard to how strongly we should line up tonight; the reality is that despite last night going better than any of us could have hoped for, we're still likely to find ourselves in a 1/4 final draw with fully half of it comprised of City, United, Liverpool and Everton. Meaning it is statistically likely we'll face one of those teams.

Our last five matches against those four teams have yielded no wins, one draw, and four defeats.

Nevertheless, as I say, a club like Saints should take each cup on a case-by-case basis. The more the tournament opens up for you, the more you go for it. The less it does so, the less resources you should spend (potentially at the expense of the league) on trying to chase an unrealistic goal.

As such, given last night's results, I'm happy to say that I care about the cup a little bit more than I did prior to last night, as winning the trophy has become more achievable.

If United, City and Liverpool all lose 0-1 tonight, and Saints' match goes to extra-time, I'll care about our result against Villa hugely, just as I did in the Sunderland FA cup match I mentioned.

However, don't kid yourself. When a club of our size (Swansea, Birmingham) wins the cup, its invariably because they've benefited from an easy route to the final with perhaps one genuine upset along the way, and despite its 'Mickey Mouse' tag, the League Cup has been one by a 'Big Six' team on the other nine occasions over the past eleven years. If you could somehow tell me that our route to the trophy would be some combination of City/United/Liverpool/Everton in three games in a row, I honestly wouldn't give a hoot about the result of tonight's match.

Nevertheless, that's obviously the worst case scenario and far from guaranteed, which is why, as I say, I'm advocating judging each cup on a case-by-case basis. If, for example, there's another upset tonight, we get a weak team at home in the 1/4 finals and the two remaining big guns run happen to run into each other, then my opinions would change as the facts change, and I'd advocate going for the trophy full pelt.

I am obviously, obviously, obviously not suggesting we play a weakened team throughout the competition no matter how glaringly huge the opportunity to win a trophy might be, any more than you are advocating playing the same 1st XI in every single competitive match this season.

But let’s not embarrass ourselves. So far in this competition we have beaten Mickey Dons. And that’s it. All this talk of the trophy now being within our grasp at this stage because of a few upsets would sound daft as anything if it were coming from Leicester, Palace or even Stoke, as it does from us.

There is real confusion in this post ^ as to what constitutes fact and opinion!!!

No and no, apparently.

Oh well back to a night in with Merry Davington then.

#Old Skool Matchday for us oversears!!

Only 1 post left as I haven't got around to renewing my Full Members Status and not many Old Speckys in the fridge either!!

What we don't want now is for Eric to run out of beer before the final whistle!! Please don't go into extra time and god forbid penaltys with 4 hours time difference to contend with.

COYS lets get ourselves back into Europe by the easiest route.!!

No and no, apparently.

Game is on BeIn here so there will no doubt be the odd stream if you can find it.

Game is on BeIn here so there will no doubt be the odd stream if you can find it.

Oh, OK. I was under the impression they weren't showing it.

Oh, OK. I was under the impression they weren't showing it.

They're showing all of the C1C games, part of their aggressive plan to take over the world I guess. Can't really grumble, it costs about 8 £ a month and there's a bit more content every month. Do BeIn not do the UK ?

Edit: You can watch on line if you can access BeIn connect but for that you have to sign up for 13 euros. Whether that's global access or restricted to France I just don't know.

Oh, OK. I was under the impression they weren't showing it.

In The Mid East they are showing it as a delayed tx at about 0230 - 0430.

Hey Steve if I promise to send my fiver by Bank Transfer tomorrow could you activate my acoount as of now

They're showing all of the C1C games, part of their aggressive plan to take over the world I guess. Can't really grumble, it costs about 8 £ a month and there's a bit more content every month. Do BeIn not do the UK ?

Edit: You can watch on line if you can access BeIn connect but for that you have to sign up for 13 euros. Whether that's global access or restricted to France I just don't know.

Pretty sure it's blocked in the UK, but obviously there are relatively simple ways around it.

BeIn's on SportsMania, for a start.

Gaston is on a feature on the OS facebook page.

getting some attention in the last week or so.

he is bound to feature tonight

But probably he will play Davis who you seem to have forgotten...

I'm not sure he will, Davis has played weekends and internationals all month and is the kind of player who we can rely on in the League against Bournemouth - we have plenty of other midfielders for tonight who are up to the job and aren't getting a look in.

Gaston is on a feature on the OS facebook page.

 

getting some attention in the last week or so.

he is bound to feature tonight

Previously there has been little correlation between OS appearances and team ones. If anything we use it as a way to offset people NOT appearing.

Preview: http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/content.php?672-PREVIEW-SAINTS-vs-Aston-Villa-Capital-One-Cup-Round-4-2015-16

However, don't kid yourself. When a club of our size (Swansea, Birmingham) wins the cup, its invariably because they've benefited from an easy route to the final with perhaps one genuine upset along the way, and despite its 'Mickey Mouse' tag, the League Cup has been one by a 'Big Six' team on the other nine occasions over the past eleven years. If you could somehow tell me that our route to the trophy would be some combination of City/United/Liverpool/Everton in three games in a row, I honestly wouldn't give a hoot about the result of tonight's match.

Swansea beat Liverpool away and Chelsea over two legs.

Birmingham beat Villa, West Ham and Arsenal.

You are basically making stuff up.

How so?

 

All of the bolded is just a series of facts, so I presume you don't take issue with that.

we haven't got as strong as squad as we did two years ago and aren't as liberated from the perils of a potential relegation battle as we were then.

This is not fact, and is patently not true. Think that's why exception was taken to your post. We have a much stronger squad, with competition for all (most places).

Dutch Sport 1 who showed our Europa matches is showing the game online.

Here are ACESTREAM French Bein Sports links which normally aren't geoblocked as they are streamed from Russia. Worked fine on Sunday.

#EXTINF:-1,Bein Sports 1 HD France (Спорт)

acestream://6aee464bcf506d9b72e57e13acead0ba1ef74cfd

#EXTINF:-1,Bein Sports 2 HD France (Спорт)

acestream://a3f3c82edac8c14ff7bb9b9a25a46d91b5c71995

Oh, and just for the hell of it, when Middlesbrough won it in 2004, they beat Everton, Spurs, and Arsenal over two legs.

we haven't got as strong as squad as we did two years ago and aren't as liberated from the perils of a potential relegation battle as we were then.

This is not fact, and is patently not true. Think that's why exception was taken to your post. We have a much stronger squad, with competition for all (most places).

I'd also point out that "people were justifiably angry" is an opinion. As well as the stuff about whether we'd have beaten Hull, Sheff U and Arsenal.

Preview now up on http://theitchenperspective.blogspot.co.uk/

So apart from making up some stuff about smaller League Cup winners which isn't true, passing off some opinions as fact about squad depth which don't stand up to much scrutiny, and completely changing your argument from "can't win, don't try" to "assess probabilty based on continuation in the competition of named opponents we're not even necessarily playing" despite last night's upsets, I'd say that was a sound and coherent argument.

I'd also point out that "people were justifiably angry" is an opinion. As well as the stuff about whether we'd have beaten Hull, Sheff U and Arsenal.

Well I know quite a few who were pretty angry so his opinion is a fair one.

Well I know quite a few who were pretty angry so his opinion is a fair one.

It's still not a "fact".

"People are angry" is a fact.

"People are justifiably angry" is an opinion.

Villa really are one of the worst sides out there. 3 wins in their last 15 games. And two of those wins were against Birmingham and the mighty Notts County. The other being against Bompey.

If we put out a strong side we can eclipse what we did to them last may. Even with a few youngsters in the team Reed/Target/McCarthy we should still beat them comfortably.

Swansea beat Liverpool away and Chelsea over two legs.

One real upset. Beating a second-string Liverpool in the early stages is nothing special. Beating Chelsea over two legs was their one serious upset. They played Middlesborough and Bradford in the quarter final and final.

Birmingham beat Villa, West Ham and Arsenal.

As I said, one real upset.

Oh, and just for the hell of it, when Middlesbrough won it in 2004, they beat Everton, Spurs, and Arsenal over two legs.

One real upset.

So apart from making up some stuff about smaller League Cup winners which isn't true

Find me a club of our size or smaller that's won a cup whilst having to beat three or more strong opponents in their run.

Passing off some opinions as fact about squad depth which don't stand up to much scrutiny

You seriously think that we have a stronger squad now than we did last season or the one before? Let's wait and see where we finish this season and what our points tally is.

and completely changing your argument from "can't win, don't try"

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman

Please. Stop embarrassing us. We have beaten MK Dons so far in this competition and are in the last 16 (or is that just an opinion too?)

If this was on Stoke's, Palace's or especially Leicester's forum we'd all be having a good laugh at how delusional they are.

One real upset. Beating a second-string Liverpool in the early stages is nothing special. Beating Chelsea over two legs was their one serious upset. They played Middlesborough and Bradford in the quarter final and final.

 

 

 

As I said, one real upset.

 

 

 

One real upset.

 

 

 

Find me a club of our size or smaller that's won a cup whilst having to beat three or more strong opponents in their run.

 

 

 

You seriously think that we have a stronger squad now than we did last season or the one before? Let's wait and see where we finish this season and what our points tally is.

 

 

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/strawman

 

Please. Stop embarrassing us. We have beaten MK Dons so far in this competition and are in the last 16 (or is that just an opinion too?)

 

If this was on Stoke's, Palace's or especially Leicester's forum we'd all be having a good laugh at how delusional they are.

Yeah yeah, so now you've changed your argument AGAIN, because, for example, Everton - who were a threat to us earlier sufficient for us not to bother picking the first team in your original argument, now aren't worth worrying about. And Birmingham beating Villa "wasn't an upset", even though Villa finished in the top half and Birmingham got relegated AND they didn't beat them in either Prem match. Admittedly West Ham got relegated with them.

I do enjoy the "beating Liverpool doesn't count because it was in the early stages", because that's precisely why your "can't win don't try" "brick walls" argument was such nonsense in the first place.

We DEFINITELY have a stronger squad in terms of depth (in my opinion), but arguably we have a weaker team because our first XI isn't as good. So better prepared to challenge in the cups when players are rotated out, but maybe not as good in the league.

Incidentally, no-one is saying "we're going to win it", we're saying "we should try and win it". Maybe click your own link?

One other thing - find me any club at all that's beaten three strong opponents - that's kind of the thing with a cup, generally you don't have to beat all the top sides, someone else does a lot of it for you.

I'm having a good laugh at how much contradictory points you have made in your lengthy posts.

It is also accepted by most that we have the strongest SQUAD since our return to the prem, yet you state as fact that it is weaker. You mention clubs still in this years draw that will stand in our way but dismiss those same clubs in the run of Birmingham and Swansea.

To be honest I have lost what your point is anyway as you seem to be arguing against yourself at times.

For what it's worth I would like to see a strong side out tonight resting those that need it but playing first teamers who need game time. Would like to see Jaunmi and Gaston start along with Romeo and caulker. Maybe youngsters on the bench but let's win the game before we start messing too much with the team.

You seriously think that we have a stronger squad now than we did last season or the one before? Let's wait and see where we finish this season and what our points tally is.

You seriously believe we don't?

Think any chance of your arguments being taken remotely seriously were blown out of the water with that one alone.

Well I know quite a few who were pretty angry so his opinion is a fair one.

It's still not a "fact".

 

"People are angry" is a fact.

"People are justifiably angry" is an opinion.

You do have a point here, but consider this:

In February 2014 we had 38 points and were completely clear of any danger of relegation, but were something like 10-15 points off the top six.

Had we won, our route to a cup final against Arsenal would have been a weak Hull City who we'd beaten home and away that season, and third-tier Sheffield United.

Pochettino let this opportunity slip away by playing a weakened team against a distracted, relegation-threatened Sunderland side that should have been there for the taking because he wanted to save our players for the league, which didn't pay any dividends whatsoever as we lost both of our next two league games against West Ham and Liverpool.

Whilst it is technically an opinion to say that anger at all I've just described was 'justified', could you really make an argument that it was unjustified? Were you not angry?

I remember that game provoking more anger among our fans and on this forum than any event post-Lowe.

No and no, apparently.

how the hell is this not being televised anywhere? Just checked no scheduled streams, very annoying

how the hell is this not being televised anywhere? Just checked no scheduled streams, very annoying

It's being shown live in Holland and across Africa so there may be a stream.

http://m.livesoccertv.com/match/1753857/southampton-vs-aston-villa/

Why the **** do people on the continent or in africa get streams to games like this yet people in this country don't?

maybe fewer viewing restrictions. here in switzerland there are no rules on copyright for people viewing/streaming. So downloading movies/music/games, or streaming matches, is within the law. if you upload anything then you're stuffed.

They usually are pushovers though. Sherwood signed rubbish, but were they worse than they should be under him? They were dire last season, and lost Vlaar, Delph and Benteke. Basically the spine and only positives in the team for a long time! Real relegation candidates whoever comes in and I expect Saints to win comfortably tonight, possible by quite a few goals.

Very much hope you're right. Will hold you personally responsible for our performance! ;-)

It's being shown live in Holland and across Africa so there may be a stream.

 

http://m.livesoccertv.com/match/1753857/southampton-vs-aston-villa/

Thanks, hope so!

Sky sports will show any goals just after they have been scored.

Why the **** do people on the continent or in africa get streams to games like this yet people in this country don't?

It may adversely affect attendances here.

It may adversely affect attendances here.

Possibly...but after the game sells out would it not be possible to extend the already programmed elsewhere emission to some

accessible on-line channel or other ? As I said earlier BeIn are broadcasting all 4 C1C games tonight on the other side of the channel so the logistics are all in place already.

You do have a point here, but consider this:

 

In February 2014 we had 38 points and were completely clear of any danger of relegation, but were something like 10-15 points off the top six.

 

Had we won, our route to a cup final against Arsenal would have been a weak Hull City who we'd beaten home and away that season, and third-tier Sheffield United.

 

Pochettino let this opportunity slip away by playing a weakened team against a distracted, relegation-threatened Sunderland side that should have been there for the taking because he wanted to save our players for the league, which didn't pay any dividends whatsoever as we lost both of our next two league games against West Ham and Liverpool.

 

Whilst it is technically an opinion to say that anger at all I've just described was 'justified', could you really make an argument that it was unjustified? Were you not angry?

 

I remember that game provoking more anger among our fans and on this forum than any event post-Lowe.

I wouldn't be so sure. 38 points is not completely clear of relegation !

Sure this happened last year also. Don't saints have to pay to have the game televised in the UK or some such nonsense?

When it comes to cup competitions I think its fair to take it on a case-by-case basis.

 

The infamous Sunderland defeat in February 2014 came in a competition where a maximum of only two of the 'Big Six' would make it through to the 1/4 finals (Spurs and United already out and Liverpool/Arsenal/Chelsea/City running into each other), along with plenty of easily-beatable lower-league fodder guaranteed to make it through.

 

It turned out that had we beaten Sunderland (who played just as weak a team as we did by the way, and would certainly have been there for the taking if we had gone for it), we'd have been two cup fixtures against relegation strugglers Hull City and third-tier Sheffield United away from a cup final against Arsenal that we genuinely could have won.

 

All in all, given the way the cup opened up for us that year, it was a huge opportunity missed for a club of our size and people were justifiably angry.

 

However; this year's league cup competition just hasn't gone that way. The big guns have all avoided each other, we haven't got as strong as squad as we did two years ago and aren't as liberated from the perils of a potential relegation battle as we were then.

 

As such, in this case I'd be happy to play a second-string team. If we 'wake up' in the Semi-Finals then of course, let's go for it, but it looks very likely that we'll simply be faced with a run of big clubs that will prove to be a bit of a brick wall.

Sorry but whilst I understand the point you are trying to make, what you have put is nonsense.

The cup composition is very similar to that year with Chelsea (Holders) and Arsenal both out. Liverpool are almost an irrelevance compared to the year they had Suarez and came second as well.

We are very much in and amongst the favourites, I think there is only one team that we should genuinely fear and the rest we can certainly expect to give a game to and probably beat on our day.

Therefore failure to take it seriously would be unacceptable given the clubs open target of winning silverware.

How so?

 

All of the bolded is just a series of facts, so I presume you don't take issue with that.

 

With regard to how strongly we should line up tonight; the reality is that despite last night going better than any of us could have hoped for, we're still likely to find ourselves in a 1/4 final draw with fully half of it comprised of City, United, Liverpool and Everton. Meaning it is statistically likely we'll face one of those teams.

 

Our last five matches against those four teams have yielded no wins, one draw, and four defeats.

 

Nevertheless, as I say, a club like Saints should take each cup on a case-by-case basis. The more the tournament opens up for you, the more you go for it. The less it does so, the less resources you should spend (potentially at the expense of the league) on trying to chase an unrealistic goal.

 

As such, given last night's results, I'm happy to say that I care about the cup a little bit more than I did prior to last night, as winning the trophy has become more achievable.

If United, City and Liverpool all lose 0-1 tonight, and Saints' match goes to extra-time, I'll care about our result against Villa hugely, just as I did in the Sunderland FA cup match I mentioned.

 

However, don't kid yourself. When a club of our size (Swansea, Birmingham) wins the cup, its invariably because they've benefited from an easy route to the final with perhaps one genuine upset along the way, and despite its 'Mickey Mouse' tag, the League Cup has been one by a 'Big Six' team on the other nine occasions over the past eleven years. If you could somehow tell me that our route to the trophy would be some combination of City/United/Liverpool/Everton in three games in a row, I honestly wouldn't give a hoot about the result of tonight's match.

 

Nevertheless, that's obviously the worst case scenario and far from guaranteed, which is why, as I say, I'm advocating judging each cup on a case-by-case basis. If, for example, there's another upset tonight, we get a weak team at home in the 1/4 finals and the two remaining big guns run happen to run into each other, then my opinions would change as the facts change, and I'd advocate going for the trophy full pelt.

 

I am obviously, obviously, obviously not suggesting we play a weakened team throughout the competition no matter how glaringly huge the opportunity to win a trophy might be, any more than you are advocating playing the same 1st XI in every single competitive match this season.

 

But let’s not embarrass ourselves. So far in this competition we have beaten Mickey Dons. And that’s it. All this talk of the trophy now being within our grasp at this stage because of a few upsets would sound daft as anything if it were coming from Leicester, Palace or even Stoke, as it does from us.

Another reason why this is unfounded... we have a much stronger squad this season. Unreal to think that our squad this year is worse than that years.

how the hell is this not being televised anywhere? Just checked no scheduled streams, very annoying

It's shown as being on stop stream.me

It's shown as being on stop stream.me

Also claimed to be on vipbox - http://vipbᴏx.tv/soccer

They have it down as European time though (20:45)...

Also claimed to be on vipbox - http://vipbᴏx.tv/soccer

 

They have it down as European time though (20:45)...

Also cricfree have the game listed, usually decent enough

The only channel this is on is "Super Sport 6 Africa". Keeping fingers crossed someone is actually going to stream it!

The only channel this is on is "Super Sport 6 Africa". Keeping fingers crossed someone is actually going to stream it!

No, it's on BeIn Max 5 as well..there will be streams, ART put them up at about midday.

No, it's on BeIn Max 5 as well..there will be streams, ART put them up at about midday.

No English commentary though, it will be French.