View Poll Results: Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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  • Leave Before - Leave Now

    34 21.66%
  • Leave Before - Remain Now

    8 5.10%
  • Leave Before - Not Bothered Now

    2 1.27%
  • Remain Before - Remain Now

    88 56.05%
  • Remain Before - Leave Now

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Thread: Brexit - Enter at Your Own Risk

  1. #15501

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Read it again. Where did I say anything about proportions of total trade?
    You didn't, but you are semantically evading the issue by ignoring the fact that the EU are far more important to the UK as a trading partner than the UK is to the EU.

  2. #15502

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Again, read what I said please. Which part of it don't you understand?
    I understand the words, and I accept that you believe them to represent a potential future. However, I do not think that the EU will imperil or compromise their project going forward, even if it means a short term 'hit' through standing firm against UK brinksmanship, or the German Chancellor having plug her ears to block the noise of their car manufacturers beating on her door.

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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    I note that we seem to be lacking in graphs showing that the Pound has fallen against both the Euro and the Dollar this afternoon. Presumably this is not due to Boris 'playing a blinder'.
    The hedge funds have been reaping the rewards both times so doesn’t matter!

  4. #15504

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    Who will be the first cabinet minister to take up a consultancy position with one of the hedge funds that has benefited from the lobbying this year?
    Though they'll probably all be too busy running food banks for their supporters in Redcar or Darlington.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Well done for confirming your statistical illiteracy Les.
    Last edited by shurlock; 21-12-2019 at 07:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Well done for confirming your statistical illiteracy Les.
    Of course, I didn't expect you to consider it good news, Gavyn. No doubt you're in a sulk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Of course, I didn't expect you to consider it good news, Gavyn. No doubt you're in a sulk.
    Whether its good news or not is beside the point. The figure is economically and statistically misleading.

    A word of advice: don't parrot things you don't understand, especially a Liz Truss press release

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    And achieved whilst being a member of the EU, you know the institution that is meant to be holding us back.

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    Default Brexit - Enter at Your Own Risk


  11. #15511

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Your Jedi mind tricks won't work on me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Whether its good news or not is beside the point. The figure is economically and statistically misleading.

    A word of advice: don't parrot things you don't understand, especially a Liz Truss press release
    I've decided to indulge you. Come on then, chapter and verse on why the release is misleading. Are the figures wrong? What are the right ones? If you were in Truss' shoes, what would your press release say? I realise that figures provided by the Treasury under Gideon were not to be trusted, although you were happy to cite them as part of project fear, but they were just forecasts, i.e. guesses. If these figures from the Treasury aren't based on accurate export trade information, give us the correct ones.

  13. #15513

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fan The Flames View Post
    And achieved whilst being a member of the EU, you know the institution that is meant to be holding us back.
    Yes, just think how much faster and more strongly our trade with the rest of the World will grow once we're actually free of their shackles. That's what worries them to death, a major competitor right on their doorstep.

  14. #15514

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Yes, just think how much faster and more strongly our trade with the rest of the World will grow once we're actually free of their shackles. That's what worries them to death, a major competitor right on their doorstep.
    Wasn’t some of that growth due to the trade deals the EU have done though, like with Japan?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I've decided to indulge you. Come on then, chapter and verse on why the release is misleading. Are the figures wrong? What are the right ones? If you were in Truss' shoes, what would your press release say? I realise that figures provided by the Treasury under Gideon were not to be trusted, although you were happy to cite them as part of project fear, but they were just forecasts, i.e. guesses. If these figures from the Treasury aren't based on accurate export trade information, give us the correct ones.
    To cut to the chase, trade and balance of payment data are highly distorted by gold movements. London is the world's major financial centre for the gold trade (80% of trade in bullion but also gold exchange traded funds). The UK doesn’t produce, refine or own the underlying gold and therefore it adds virtually nothing to the UK economy yet it shows up in its entirety in the UK’s export figures.

    Since the majority of gold is shipped to countries such as China, Switzerland and India, it inflates the total amount of exports reported as going to non-EU countries. That trade can be sufficiently large that it often ranks as the UK's top export above aerospace, cars, pharmaceuticals, business services etc. Note the period under question -the twelve months to September 2019- saw gold demand/prices go through the roof due to recession fears, rising protectionism and dovish central banks.

    Statisticians and economists who work with the data fully understand these limitations - that's why they are heavily caveated. The ONS has toiled for a number of years without much success to come up with ways to publish additional trade statistics stripping out non-monetary gold by geography. You'll also find articles in the informed business press discussing the problem.

    So there’s your answer pal. Adjust for gold and your point is fool’s gold (never mind that even if you include gold but look at the whole post-referendum period, the share of UK exports going to the EU has still increased relative to non-EU countries -that is, UK exports to the EU have grown more rapidly).

    As I tell your little chum, John, you need to look behind the figures (experts huh) -not cluelessly parrot them and make yourself look silly. As for Liz Truss, I bet black holes are brighter than her.
    Last edited by shurlock; 22-12-2019 at 05:27 PM.

  16. #15516

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    Wasn’t some of that growth due to the trade deals the EU have done though, like with Japan?
    What ‘shackles’ might these be? I have never come across any.

    The only ‘shackles’ that I can see in the future are the ones that will occur because we have left the Single Market.

  17. #15517

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    Quote Originally Posted by Whitey Grandad View Post
    What ‘shackles’ might these be? I have never come across any.

    The only ‘shackles’ that I can see in the future are the ones that will occur because we have left the Single Market.
    I agree, my point was that I think a fair amount of non EU trade is done as part of trade deals we have got because we are part of the EU, not the other way round. I’m no expert and quite frankly find the subject a bit boring but from what I have read it seams that any gains we might get through trade deals around the world are unlikely to offset the loses made trough losing EU trade, the effects of the disruption and not being part of a powerful trading block.

    It’s irrelevant now anyway because it’s happening, we just have to hope these Tories know what they are doing. At least if it is a disaster the Tories will be finished - that’s the silver lining.

  18. #15518

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    I agree, my point was that I think a fair amount of non EU trade is done as part of trade deals we have got because we are part of the EU, not the other way round. I’m no expert and quite frankly find the subject a bit boring but from what I have read it seams that any gains we might get through trade deals around the world are unlikely to offset the loses made trough losing EU trade, the effects of the disruption and not being part of a powerful trading block.

    It’s irrelevant now anyway because it’s happening, we just have to hope these Tories know what they are doing. At least if it is a disaster the Tories will be finished - that’s the silver lining.
    The Single Market is by far our most important trading partner and the rest of the world cannot come close to replacing what we lose of it.

    As far as manufacturing is concerned, and that includes me, anything I produce at the moment is ‘Made in the EU’ but that will soon change to ‘Made in the UK’. No more CE markings for many products with consequential loss of sales, both worldwide as well as to the EU.

    And no, the Tories haven’t got a clue what they’re doing. They only ever think of themselves.

  19. #15519

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    I’m no expert and quite frankly find the subject a bit boring but from what I have read it seams that any gains we might get through trade deals around the world are unlikely to offset the loses made trough losing EU trade,
    I'm no expert either, but do you seriously think we will be losing such significant amounts of trade with the EU - are they all going to suddenly stop needing what we are currently supplying and vice versa?

  20. #15520

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    I'm no expert either, but do you seriously think we will be losing such significant amounts of trade with the EU - are they all going to suddenly stop needing what we are currently supplying and vice versa?
    Yep, you got it.

    If you’re an EU purchaser you have the whole of the EU as a potential supplier in competition with little ol’ UK. If you are considering buying a complex system that will need regular service visits are you really going to buy it from a country that probably won’t be able to send staff to service it? There is precious little that we supply that cannot be sourced elsewhere.

    We shall still be able to buy from the EU but it will cost us.

  21. #15521

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    I'm no expert either, but do you seriously think we will be losing such significant amounts of trade with the EU - are they all going to suddenly stop needing what we are currently supplying and vice versa?
    No, but we will soon be direct competition with them, so by default they will do all they can to have what is currently supplied by us, supplied by another EU state.

  22. #15522

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    No, but we will soon be direct competition with them, so by default they will do all they can to have what is currently supplied by us, supplied by another EU state.
    Particularly if we start to diverge from EU standards and protocols.

  23. #15523

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    Sadly the pound has dropped under $1.30

  24. Default

    The good news keeps on coming for everyone...
    ...apart from those that invested with our own sage and macroeconomic expert shurlock aka Gavyn Davies whose fund was recently rated the 7th worse performing fund of 2019:
    Worst Performing Funds of 2019
    NB : Fulcrum are a boutique fund management house established by Gavyn Davies and Andrew Stevens in 2004. TM Fulcrum Diversified Core Absolute Return is their flagship absolute return vehicle.
    #tiredofexperts

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guided Missile View Post
    The good news keeps on coming for everyone...
    Some more selective quoting from the same article;
    "However, this could leave the annual growth rate at barely more than 1pc, down from 1.2pc to 1.3pc in 2019."

    "Whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems that uncertainty will continue to hold back GDP growth and keep a lid on the pound, interest rates and gilt yields"

    "This combination of another year of uncertainty ahead of the agreement on the future relationship with the EU, plus a weak global economy threatens to keep a lid on business investment despite the progress made to pass the initial deal by the end of January."

    "Overall we think the fact that the transition period is likely to be only a year is going to leave quite a lot of uncertainty for businesses. The possibility of a cliff edge at the end of the year is quite high, which is not great news. It is not something we’re likely to see resolved early – it is likely to drag until much later."

  26. #15526

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guided Missile View Post

    ...apart from those that invested with our own sage and macroeconomic expert shurlock aka Gavyn Davies whose fund was recently rated the 7th worse performing fund of 2019:

    #tiredofexperts
    Lol!

    I'm sure he'll have a witty rebuttal explaining how he already made his money earlier in the year shorting the pound or something equally as made up.... pal....

  27. #15527

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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    Some more selective quoting from the same article;
    "However, this could leave the annual growth rate at barely more than 1pc, down from 1.2pc to 1.3pc in 2019."

    "Whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems that uncertainty will continue to hold back GDP growth and keep a lid on the pound, interest rates and gilt yields"

    "This combination of another year of uncertainty ahead of the agreement on the future relationship with the EU, plus a weak global economy threatens to keep a lid on business investment despite the progress made to pass the initial deal by the end of January."

    "Overall we think the fact that the transition period is likely to be only a year is going to leave quite a lot of uncertainty for businesses. The possibility of a cliff edge at the end of the year is quite high, which is not great news. It is not something we’re likely to see resolved early – it is likely to drag until much later."
    With ignorance like that you can see why GM's company is so s hite.
    Last edited by Tamesaint; 28-12-2019 at 11:06 AM.

  28. #15528

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    "Overall we think the fact that the transition period is likely to be only a year is going to leave quite a lot of uncertainty for businesses. The possibility of a cliff edge at the end of the year is quite high, which is not great news. It is not something we’re likely to see resolved early – it is likely to drag until much later."
    Obviously in some people's minds, business confidence is better served by having an open ended arrangement whereby there is no firm commitment to a deadline date for agreeing a trade deal with the EU, with the resultant likelihood that the process will go on and on indefinitely. Let's have a transition period of two, even better three years, put off the cliff edge until the end of that period instead and watch business confidence and inward investment soar in the interim.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    What is the point in posting a link to an organisation that requires a subscription before the contents can be accessed? Hands up all those who have access to the FT article on here.

  32. #15532

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    What is the point in posting a link to an organisation that requires a subscription before the contents can be accessed? Hands up all those who have access to the FT article on here.
    You can generally find syndicated stories elsewhere;
    https://www.newscabal.co.uk/brussels...hip-ambitions/
    Last edited by badgerx16; 08-01-2020 at 05:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    You can generally find syndicated stories elsewhere;
    https://www.newscabal.co.uk/brussels...hip-ambitions/
    I watched the interview with von der Leyen on You Tube by the Telegraph. A nice bit of sabre rattling from her in advance of the serious stuff post 31st January when we are finally out. Exactly what one would expect, them laying out the terms and conditions on their side, a perfectly normal negotiating procedure. Boris of course has already done the same on a couple of aspects, the time limit and divergence of standards. As she says, with compromise over these negotiations comes the reality that the trade agreement and ties between us and them will be less strong. So be it. Thankfully, we don't have the terminally useless May and Robbins negotiating on our behalf, and our negotiating hand is considerably strengthened since 12th December. Now that we have made it clear that we will leave on WTO terms if a free trade deal is not arranged with the EU by 31st December, and that the deadline will not be extended beyond that date, we have taken the initiative for the first time since we signed Article 50. Von der Leyen suggesting that perhaps we ought to wait until June/July before deciding on whether there is enough time to conclude a satisfactory deal without a time extension is pointless. What part of the statement that the deadline will not be extended does she not understand? Those tactics worked with the hung parliament allowing extension after extension and Benn's surrender act, but the whole political landscape has changed and they need to get used to the idea very quickly.

  34. #15534

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    anyone think the stop brexit man is a bit 'tapped'?

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/12...065462785?s=20

  35. Default Brexit - Enter at Your Own Risk

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    anyone think the stop brexit man is a bit 'tapped'?

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/12...065462785?s=20
    Didn’t that helmet lose his deposit at the last election. The people have spoken, now **** off....


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  36. #15536

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    Boris agreed to a border in his own country in order to safeguard the EU’s single market

    #playingablinder

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    https://brexitcentral.com/the-irish-...ade-agreement/

    Yes, Boris did play a blinder getting rid of the backstop and reopening the WA talks, things that the EU stated could not be done.

    Next on the agenda to be shot down is von der Leyen's claim that "Without the free movement of people, you cannot have the free movement of capital, goods and services".

    Boris has already made clear that the free movement of people is finished, so we'll have to wait and see whether he sticks to that and what the repercussions actually will be.

  38. #15538

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    https://brexitcentral.com/the-irish-...ade-agreement/

    Yes, Boris did play a blinder getting rid of the backstop and reopening the WA talks, things that the EU stated could not be done.

    Next on the agenda to be shot down is von der Leyen's claim that "Without the free movement of people, you cannot have the free movement of capital, goods and services".

    Boris has already made clear that the free movement of people is finished, so we'll have to wait and see whether he sticks to that and what the repercussions actually will be.
    Not really playing a blinder though is it, he just ripped up one of the red lines and stuffed a border through the middle of the UK. May could have got a deal ages ago if she could just ignore one of the red lines.

    Playing a blinder would have been keeping the UK as a whole and coming up with that mythical technological solutions to the Irish border you lot kept on banging on about.

  39. #15539

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    Not really playing a blinder though is it, he just ripped up one of the red lines and stuffed a border through the middle of the UK. May could have got a deal ages ago if she could just ignore one of the red lines.

    Playing a blinder would have been keeping the UK as a whole and coming up with that mythical technological solutions to the Irish border you lot kept on banging on about.
    May could have got a decent deal had she stuck to the thrust of her Lancaster House speech. But Boris was left with doing the best he could to undo as much of the mess as possible that the incompetent Vicar's daughter created in cahoots with the remainer Civil Servant Ollie Robbins, when between the two of them they allowed the EU to prepare the nearly 600 page WA Treaty and the much shorter Political Declaration. The waters were considerably muddied by her ridiculous Chequers deal, the archetypal bad deal that she said would be worse than no deal.

    So yes, under the circumstances Boris is playing a blinder having got shot of the Irish backstop and reopening the WA. As that article correctly points out, the whole Irish border question was cynically used merely as a device to stop Brexit, and as long as there was no prospect of us leaving without a deal, (thanks to the likes of Benn and his surrender treaty), or as long as the process could be delayed until a second referendum could be enacted, then there was no incentive for Ireland or the EU to soften their policy on the border.

    In many ways, we have those remoaner MPs who pulled all those strokes in the House, to thank for the current situation. Had they not played fast and loose with the democratic will of the referendum decision by all of their devious tactics to delay it, legislating to weaken our hand by not allowing a no deal outcome, then Boris would not have the stonking great majority now to enable him to negotiate with a far stronger hand. As soon as Boris was elected, Varadkar realised that the game was up and that Ireland's trade and economy would have taken a massive hit without a EU free trade deal with us, so he rapidly came to his senses. Once that trade deal is in place, then the border situation becomes far less of a problem. Had May had the guts and the nous to have insisted on a trade deal being discussed simultaneously with the settlement payment and the citizenship issue, as the terms of Article 50 dictated as I understand it, then the border issue would never have been the problem it became.

    As I say, at last we have the whip hand for the first time in these negotiations and the utterances of von der Leyen about what is or is not possible sound increasingly like platitudes and hot air.

  40. #15540

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    I cant read the article but are you saying that Brexit is not going to be done. That BJ wil risk all his goodwill by not following it through?

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldNick View Post
    I cant read the article but are you saying that Brexit is not going to be done. That BJ wil risk all his goodwill by not following it through?
    The story is easily found elsewhere, ( see above ).

  42. Default

    Morning, campers.
    Yet more good news:
    Top finance directors reported the biggest jump in confidence on record during the fourth quarter after the election broke the Brexit deadlock and ended the threat of a far-left government, a Deloitte survey revealed. More than half of chief financial officers were more optimistic about their company’s prospects compared to three months earlier, up sharply from just 9pc in the third quarter. Confidence is now at the highest level recorded during the 11 years in which Deloitte has conducted the survey. Brexit has dropped to third place in blue-chip finance chiefs' list of concerns, falling behind weak demand in the UK and geopolitical risks. Economists expect growth to rebound from 2021 as lost business investment starts to return. The Conservatives' victory also looks set to put Britain’s jobs growth back on track after permanent hiring climbed for the first time in a year, according to a separate survey by the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG.
    #projectjoy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guided Missile View Post
    Morning, campers.
    Yet more good news:

    #projectjoy
    Interestingly, the Deloitte report states that "66% of CFOs expect the overall environment for business in the long term to be worse if the UK leaves the EU, down from a high of 83% in the second quarter of 2019."
    ( The results are 66% expect it to be worse, 18% expect it to be better: in Q3 76%/8%: in Q2 83%/7% ). So, perhaps an improving picture, but not quite as rosy as the Telegraph paints.
    Last edited by badgerx16; 10-01-2020 at 05:56 PM.

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    Remoaners continue to believe that the country didn't really want us to leave the EU and that the election result giving the Tories a stonking majority wasn't really the electorate's mandate to get Brexit done. An opinion poll in the Not Independent commissioned by some second rate outfit called BMG, on a titchy sample of just 1508, concludes that 52% against 48%, (the reverse of the referendum result) wanted to remain in the EU. What are we to do? Is there still time for Boris to do a complete about face and revoke Article 50, or at least extend it until a second/third referendum can be held? Or will we just have to accept that failing that, on the basis of this poll a campaign to rejoin can commence on February 1st? Village idiot Steve Bray had obviously been tipped the wink on this, which is why he has remained on College Green wearing his stupid outfit, and no doubt he will now be joined by all the other remoaners who have nothing better to do with their lives.

    Or perhaps the Independent are making themselves a laughing stock if they believe that some poxy poll has any more relevance since the election result than the Labour Party's attempts to amend the WAB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Remoaners continue to believe that the country didn't really want us to leave the EU and that the election result giving the Tories a stonking majority wasn't really the electorate's mandate to get Brexit done. An opinion poll in the Not Independent commissioned by some second rate outfit called BMG, on a titchy sample of just 1508, concludes that 52% against 48%, (the reverse of the referendum result) wanted to remain in the EU. What are we to do? Is there still time for Boris to do a complete about face and revoke Article 50, or at least extend it until a second/third referendum can be held? Or will we just have to accept that failing that, on the basis of this poll a campaign to rejoin can commence on February 1st? Village idiot Steve Bray had obviously been tipped the wink on this, which is why he has remained on College Green wearing his stupid outfit, and no doubt he will now be joined by all the other remoaners who have nothing better to do with their lives.

    Or perhaps the Independent are making themselves a laughing stock if they believe that some poxy poll has any more relevance since the election result than the Labour Party's attempts to amend the WAB.
    To be fair the Tories got a stonking majority because the opposition were a bunch of unelectable Marxists, and even then, more votes went to parties who favoured a second referendum or cancelling Brexit altogether.

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    It’s ok. When the old Little Englanders die off we will be back in again.

  48. #15548

    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Nearly. Just waiting for the German car companies to start hammering on the door.

  49. #15549

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    To be fair the Tories got a stonking majority because the opposition were a bunch of unelectable Marxists, and even then, more votes went to parties who favoured a second referendum or cancelling Brexit altogether.
    The election was effectively the fourth opportunity to decide on whether we stayed in the EU or left it. The first of course being the actual 2016 referendum itself, which gave a clear vote to leave. The second was the GE in 2017, where the majority of parties pledged in their manifestos that they would honour the referendum vote. The third was the EU elections where the biggest number of seats was won by a party whose sole purpose was to leave the EU and then in the latest GE the main party with a policy to leave won a stonking majority, when the other main parties had stood on manifestos to leave or hold another referendum. Of course, had the original referendum gone the other way, then the remoaners would have accused leavers of being bad losers for raking over the coals for years afterwards and bleating about how unfair it all was after the event, but they lack the self awareness to understand this. Somehow, losers consent doesn't apply to them.

  50. #15550

    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by sadoldgit View Post
    It’s ok. When the old Little Englanders die off we will be back in again.
    You'll be dead long before we rejoin, Soggy. No doubt you'll whinge about the decision to leave right up until you draw your last breath though.

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