Brexit - Post Match Reaction

EU’s top scientist, dramatically quit last night because of the bloc’s response to the virus, saying he had “lost faith” in the EU

 

Meanwhile EU finance ministers said on Wednesday they still hadn’t agreed an economic response. Northern EU member states like the Netherlands and Germany fear they’ll end up carrying other countries’ debts, while hard-hit nations in the south like Italy and Spain say not enough is being done

Gavyn Davies thinks that the UK should have closer ties with China, now we're leaving the EU block. Easy to see what an upbringing in Zimbabwe can do to a person....

This week, a group of Italian mayors and other politicians bought a page in Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper to remind Germany that it was never made to pay back its debts after World War Two LOL

Among the usual daily tedium of all the news concentrated on the Chinese virus, our situation regarding the Transitional Period trade talks has not unnaturally taken a back seat. Despite the best efforts of the usual former Remoaner establishment to get the Transition Period extended because of the Chinese virus, I am happy to hear that yesterday a spokesman for Boris stated that it would not be, and if the EU asked for an extension, it would be refused. So it isn't all bad news at the moment.

Meanwhile the EU apologise to Italy for their crap response

Among the usual daily tedium of all the news concentrated on the Chinese virus, our situation regarding the Transitional Period trade talks has not unnaturally taken a back seat. Despite the best efforts of the usual former Remoaner establishment to get the Transition Period extended because of the Chinese virus, I am happy to hear that yesterday a spokesman for Boris stated that it would not be, and if the EU asked for an extension, it would be refused. So it isn't all bad news at the moment.

Plenty of time yet.

With Germany / Spain starting to open up. There are no excuses.

Plenty of time yet.

The end of June when the request to extend would have to be made is not that far away at all. There is no rush for us, as the imperative is for the EU to drop their insistence on us accepting continued jurisdiction of the ECJ over our future trading arrangements, their insistence also on maintaining a level playing field, and for the French in particular to drop their stupid assertion that no trade deal can be concluded unless we accept a status quo arrangement on fisheries. As we will accept neither, then unless the EU relent, there is no point in continuing the talks anyway, Chinese virus or not. If we're going WTO anyway, we might as well get on with it sooner rather than later. In any event, as things are going, Italy might seriously be thinking of leaving by the end of the year, the Euro might have collapsed. There has been much internal wrangling within the EU over the virus, and there will be much more when they argue among themselves about who is going to pay for it all.

The end of June when the request to extend would have to be made is not that far away at all. There is no rush for us, as the imperative is for the EU to drop their insistence on us accepting continued jurisdiction of the ECJ over our future trading arrangements, their insistence also on maintaining a level playing field, and for the French in particular to drop their stupid assertion that no trade deal can be concluded unless we accept a status quo arrangement on fisheries. As we will accept neither, then unless the EU relent, there is no point in continuing the talks anyway, Chinese virus or not. If we're going WTO anyway, we might as well get on with it sooner rather than later. In any event, as things are going, Italy might seriously be thinking of leaving by the end of the year, the Euro might have collapsed. There has been much internal wrangling within the EU over the virus, and there will be much more when they argue among themselves about who is going to pay for it all.

Whilst I accept that in all likelihood there will not be an extension, which might lead to a worst case scenario of WTO, it is too early to definitively rule it out. On top of that, your post is packed with speculation, wishful thinking, and longing for unicorns.

Guy Verhofstadt made me smile

Whilst I accept that in all likelihood there will not be an extension, which might lead to a worst case scenario of WTO, it is too early to definitively rule it out. On top of that, your post is packed with speculation, wishful thinking, and longing for unicorns.

I'm encouraged to hear that despite the recent desperate urging and pleading of the head of the IMF, from Sadiq Khan, and many others of the remoaner establishment, that you at least accept the likelihood that there will not be an extension of the TP. I have read numerous articles by prominent remoaners insisting that Boris will be forced to ask for an extension, regardless of how many times he has denied that he would ask for one.

As to the speculation, wishful thinking and longing for unicorns, I was just expressing opinions on what I considered to be the outcome of future events, in the same way that your labelling my opinions in such a fashion is also an opinion. Only the passage of time will tell us whether there has been any wishful thinking, longing for unicorns, and on which side of the Brexit divide it turned out to be. I take comfort from the fact that the recent history of the Brexit process has been on the side I supported these past 4 or 5 years, despite the best efforts of the remoaner establishment throwing everything they could at preventing it. The wishful thinking, speculation and unicorns during that period was prevalent then from those who thought that Brext wouldn't happen, that when it did, we would stay in the CU and SM, that we would go for the Norway option, could not leave without a deal, would become a vassal state colony of the EU, etc.

I'm pretty confident that we will leave on 31st December, with or without a deal. I'm totally ambivalent about either scenario at this point, so on whose side is the wishful thinking the strongest? Mine or yours?

Guy Verhofstadt made me smile

I think that the clown has totally missed the most salient point. It is that now we are out of the EU, we are able to pick and choose who we allow to come and work here, and for how long.

I'm pretty confident that we will leave on 31st December, with or without a deal. I'm totally ambivalent about either scenario at this point, so on whose side is the wishful thinking the strongest? Mine or yours?

Pray, do enlighten me as to what my 'side' is thinking. Perhaps opinion on the status, progress, and options is not a binary choice.

I think that the clown has totally missed the most salient point. It is that now we are out of the EU, we are able to pick and choose who we allow to come and work here, and for how long.

Hasn't the Government said it wants to "switch the economy away from a reliance on cheap labour from Europe" ?

Pray, do enlighten me as to what my 'side' is thinking. Perhaps opinion on the status, progress, and options is not a binary choice.

Your past musings on the subject of Brexit appear to place you on the remoaner side that from the start didn't want it to happen, and once the vote to leave was cast, hoped against hope that there would be another referendum to overturn the original decision, as the leave voters had plainly been lied to, or didn't understand what they were voting for. Even now, we having left, there is a large body of remoaners who still harbour forlorn hopes that the project can be delayed again and again, or failing that, we end up so closely aligned, that there will have been little point in leaving. Leaving the TP on the 31st December with a FTA or WTO is a binary deal as far as I can see. Even in the unlikely event of an extension of a few months, it remains the same binary choice; unless you can point out any other options that might come into play.

Hasn't the Government said it wants to "switch the economy away from a reliance on cheap labour from Europe" ?

Doesn't that sort of imply that is a future aspiration? You can't just end that reliance overnight, there should be some sort of gradual transition whatever the national situation.

I accept it is an aspiration, Wes doesn't seem to ; " It is that now we are out of the EU, we are able to pick and choose who we allow to come and work here, and for how long."

Your past musings on the subject of Brexit appear to place you on the remoaner side that from the start didn't want it to happen, and once the vote to leave was cast, hoped against hope that there would be another referendum to overturn the original decision, as the leave voters had plainly been lied to, or didn't understand what they were voting for. Even now, we having left, there is a large body of remoaners who still harbour forlorn hopes that the project can be delayed again and again, or failing that, we end up so closely aligned, that there will have been little point in leaving. Leaving the TP on the 31st December with a FTA or WTO is a binary deal as far as I can see. Even in the unlikely event of an extension of a few months, it remains the same binary choice; unless you can point out any other options that might come into play.

It can't possibly be a binary deal, Shurlock has already stated that there will be a deal that is 'diametrically opposite' to a 'no deal'.

Still waiting for the dinlo to enlighten us as to what that entails but he's gone quiet for now, not sure why....

Your past musings on the subject of Brexit appear to place you on the remoaner side that from the start didn't want it to happen, and once the vote to leave was cast, hoped against hope that there would be another referendum to overturn the original decision, as the leave voters had plainly been lied to, or didn't understand what they were voting for. Even now, we having left, there is a large body of remoaners who still harbour forlorn hopes that the project can be delayed again and again, or failing that, we end up so closely aligned, that there will have been little point in leaving. Leaving the TP on the 31st December with a FTA or WTO is a binary deal as far as I can see. Even in the unlikely event of an extension of a few months, it remains the same binary choice; unless you can point out any other options that might come into play.

Option 1; leave on 31st Dec on WTO terms

Option 2; leave on 31st Dec with an FTA

Option 3; extend the TP due to the current pandemic in order to ensure an FTA can be agreed, thus avoiding WTO

I accept it is an aspiration, Wes doesn't seem to ; " It is that now we are out of the EU, we are able to pick and choose who we allow to come and work here, and for how long."

Option 1; leave on 31st Dec on WTO terms

Option 2; leave on 31st Dec with an FTA

Option 3; extend the TP due to the current pandemic in order to ensure an FTA can be agreed, thus avoiding WTO

Only nutters would do anything other than option 3 at the moment tbh.

Do you say this because you genuinely believe that all EU countries are going to reach an agreement on a deal or because you hope it will buy time to call the whole thing off?

Only nutters would do anything other than option 3 at the moment tbh.

This, unless they can sort a deal, but going WTO in the current situation would just be plain reckless.

Do you say this because you genuinely believe that all EU countries are going to reach an agreement on a deal or because you hope it will buy time to call the whole thing off?

Because the worst health crisis in a generation means the proper amount of attention cannot be given to getting a deal at the moment and priorities are elsewhere.

It isn't just the negotions for an FTA. Businesses will have expected the run up to December 31st to be when they worked out and implemented their processes for the final transition away from integration with the EU. I wouldn't think there's much of that going on at present.

Because the worst health crisis in a generation means the proper amount of attention cannot be given to getting a deal at the moment and priorities are elsewhere.

Another spin on it.... Now that most businesses are closed down, isn't it the perfect time for a 'reset' and reallignment of strategies so when they do re-open they will know what they need to achieve?

Another spin on it.... Now that most businesses are closed down, isn't it the perfect time for a 'reset' and reallignment of strategies so when they do re-open they will know what they need to achieve?

Are you for real? We’re all struggling to get through the next few weeks alive. Everybody is ‘working from home’ which means that you can’t get hold of anyone and they can take two weeks to reply to emails.

As you rightly say, “businesses are closed down”. Nothing happens when you’re closed down.

Are you for real? We’re all struggling to get through the next few weeks alive. Everybody is ‘working from home’ which means that you can’t get hold of anyone and they can take two weeks to reply to emails.

As you rightly say, “businesses are closed down”. Nothing happens when you’re closed down.

Speak for yourself

Option 1; leave on 31st Dec on WTO terms

Option 2; leave on 31st Dec with an FTA

Option 3; extend the TP due to the current pandemic in order to ensure an FTA can be agreed, thus avoiding WTO

So as I said, it is still a binary deal, as there are only two choices, leave with a deal or leave without one on WTO terms. Option 2 is the same as option 3, but delayed, which doesn't make it different, does it?

Are you for real? We’re all struggling to get through the next few weeks alive. Everybody is ‘working from home’ which means that you can’t get hold of anyone and they can take two weeks to reply to emails.

As you rightly say, “businesses are closed down”. Nothing happens when you’re closed down.

I'm running my business working from home too and monitor and respond to my emails constantly. Don't you with your business? Don't your customers? Granted that I can't go out to visit them, or they me, but to suggest that communication has to be delayed is clearly nonsense in most cases.

I'm running my business working from home too and monitor and respond to my emails constantly. Don't you with your business? Don't your customers? Granted that I can't go out to visit them, or they me, but to suggest that communication has to be delayed is clearly nonsense in most cases.

So just because you can read and write emails you think that every other company can do the same?

“Don’t your customers” no they don’t, most of mine have been closed by the government and are not placing orders and have gone into hibernation. I have a FTSE250 company that owes me money form the beginning of March. It would keep us going for two months but they are not answering their phone calls or emails.

As usual you are basing your beliefs on your own personal experience. There are very few businesses that can earn money from emails alone. Nobody can manufacture anything by just writing emails.

You are clearly talking nonsense.

Speak for yourself

The ‘alive’ quote relates to businesses.

The second part relates to the banks and some local authorities (no names) and some very large companies (see above).

Only nutters would do anything other than option 3 at the moment tbh.

Would the nutters only be on the UK side, or would they also be on the EU side too? In the interests of a balanced viewpoint on the situation, can we for once consider the implications for the other side, instead of bleating on about the effects only on our side? The EU would love an extension allowing them to drag their feet and have us pay additional billions into their rapidly depleting coffers. The Euro-nutters mentioned that the Canada deal took 8 years to complete, suggestive that a similar deal with us ought to take that length of time also. Recently pre-Chinese virus, they were saying that a FTA by the end of the year was extremely difficult, (but presumably not impossible with intent) so the timescale had diminished somewhat. Frankly, I do not accept the premise that because of the Chinese pandemic, the government departments in the UK, or those in the EU responsible for negotiations are unable to continue making preparations for a FTA.

Talk about a departure on WTO terms being a disaster for business, needs to be balanced by two other considerations. Business confidence has already suffered because of the uncertainty caused by the several delays in the Brexit process since 2016. Any further delays will exacerbate that. Also, over 90% of UK business does not trade directly with the EU, so the effects of WTO need to be assessed on that basis too.

Many of the same people using this florid language insulting those who don't want an extension, are the same people who supported the idiotic Surrender Bill put through Parliament by Benn, and instantly and naively scuppering the strength of our negotiating hand by withdrawing the tactic of walking away from a bad deal. If the EU needs to avoid us leaving on WTO terms, then the deadline date of the end of the year will concentrate their minds wonderfully. They say that an extension has to be requested by the end of June, so even better that we don't flinch from our position before then. We hold the aces at the moment; the ball is in their court.

So just because you can read and write emails you think that every other company can do the same?

 

“Don’t your customers” no they don’t, most of mine have been closed by the government and are not placing orders and have gone into hibernation. I have a FTSE250 company that owes me money form the beginning of March. It would keep us going for two months but they are not answering their phone calls or emails.

 

As usual you are basing your beliefs on your own personal experience. There are very few businesses that can earn money from emails alone. Nobody can manufacture anything by just writing emails.

 

You are clearly talking nonsense.

You accuse me of basing my response on my business experience and then insist that everybody else should base their assessment on your business experience. Clearly every business faces a different situation, so please don't generalise based on your situation.

You accuse me of basing my response on my business experience and then insist that everybody else should base their assessment on your business experience. Clearly every business faces a different situation, so please don't generalise based on your situation.

I talk to other businesses (those whose owners are still there)

Perhaps that is the difference between us.

So just because you can read and write emails you think that every other company can do the same?

 

“Don’t your customers” no they don’t, most of mine have been closed by the government and are not placing orders and have gone into hibernation. I have a FTSE250 company that owes me money form the beginning of March. It would keep us going for two months but they are not answering their phone calls or emails.

 

As usual you are basing your beliefs on your own personal experience. There are very few businesses that can earn money from emails alone. Nobody can manufacture anything by just writing emails.

 

You are clearly talking nonsense.

Bit of a crummy business if they don't have someone answering emails at the very least during all this.

Its perfectly normal (although wrong) for companies under financial pressure to conserve cash by stop paying suppliers invoices. Its probably just creditors emails they are ignoring, not customers or debtors.

So just because you can read and write emails you think that every other company can do the same?

 

“Don’t your customers” no they don’t, most of mine have been closed by the government and are not placing orders and have gone into hibernation. I have a FTSE250 company that owes me money form the beginning of March. It would keep us going for two months but they are not answering their phone calls or emails.

 

As usual you are basing your beliefs on your own personal experience. There are very few businesses that can earn money from emails alone. Nobody can manufacture anything by just writing emails.

 

You are clearly talking nonsense.

Seems like the perfect time to re-evaluate your business's strategic priority to ensure it is stronger moving forward, maybe even prioritise which customers you will service once things start to return to normal.

Its perfectly normal (although wrong) for companies under financial pressure to conserve cash by stop paying suppliers invoices. Its probably just creditors emails they are ignoring, not customers or debtors.

This.

Its perfectly normal (although wrong) for companies under financial pressure to conserve cash by stop paying suppliers invoices. Its probably just creditors emails they are ignoring, not customers or debtors.

I assumed with the comment about taking two weeks to reply that they weren't outright ignoring emails, just taking their time to answer.

I talk to other businesses (those whose owners are still there)

 

Perhaps that is the difference between us.

Did you just make an assumption that I don't talk to other businesses? What are you basing that on?

Timmy is right to conclude that some businesses will naturally use the Chinese virus and the lockdown as an excuse to delay settling outstanding invoices, hence the increased difficulty in eliciting a response to chasing up payments from their accounts departments, which will be a lot more on the ball when chasing up money owed to them.

So, we are facing the greatest threat to the World economy for, some say, 300 years. There is talk of 35% drop in the GDP of the UK due to corona virus. The prospect of trading on WTO terms with the EU and any threat that may pose to the UK economy pales into insignificance. I mean, the EU deals with the US on WTO terms and the average tariff imposed for 5,018 products is 5.25%. Big effing deal....

So, we are facing the greatest threat to the World economy for, some say, 300 years. There is talk of 35% drop in the GDP of the UK due to corona virus. The prospect of trading on WTO terms with the EU and any threat that may pose to the UK economy pales into insignificance. I mean, the EU deals with the US on WTO terms and the average tariff imposed for 5,018 products is 5.25%. Big effing deal....

In any case I'd have thought the current crisis might lead the UK (and other nations) to consider bringing a bit more production home and stop relying on just in time deliveries from far, far away. Things will just cost more though.

Only nutters would do anything other than option 3 at the moment tbh.

Indeed. It's not even a discussion is it? Just imagine going into 2021 with the financial rebuild from this and WTO terms. Carnage.

So, we are facing the greatest threat to the World economy for, some say, 300 years. There is talk of 35% drop in the GDP of the UK due to corona virus. The prospect of trading on WTO terms with the EU and any threat that may pose to the UK economy pales into insignificance. I mean, the EU deals with the US on WTO terms and the average tariff imposed for 5,018 products is 5.25%. Big effing deal....

That's wrong. The EU and Europe trade on scores of trade agreements.

That's wrong. The EU and Europe trade on scores of trade agreements.

It wasn't wrong, but I've pedant proofed it, as follows:

So, we are facing the greatest threat to the World economy for, some say, 300 years. There is talk of 35% drop in the GDP of the UK due to corona virus. The prospect of trading on WTO terms with the EU and any threat that may pose to the UK economy pales into insignificance. I mean, outside some specific bilateral trade agreements, the EU deals with the US on WTO terms and the average tariff imposed for 5,018 products is 5.25%. Big effing deal....

It wasn't wrong, but I've pedant proofed it, as follows:

It's not pedantry. It's completely misleading to suggest that the EU and US trade on WTO terms. They trade on over 100 trade agreements. We have none ready to go with either the US or EU and in the early stages of a global pandemic, we ain't gonna secure any. The only sensible thing is to stay as we are until we're in a position to sort deals out. It's not complicated.

It's not pedantry. It's completely misleading to suggest that the EU and US trade on WTO terms. They trade on over 100 trade agreements. We have none ready to go with either the US or EU and in the early stages of a global pandemic, we ain't gonna secure any. The only sensible thing is to stay as we are until we're in a position to sort deals out. It's not complicated.

Your general point is correct, though there are some specific agreements in place with the US such as the 'open skies' aviation pact. Pity the terms of the agreement are inferior to the rights the UK enjoyed as an EU member.

Indeed. It's not even a discussion is it? Just imagine going into 2021 with the financial rebuild from this and WTO terms. Carnage.

It's not about if you supported brexit or not it's just basic common sense.

Indeed. Principled stances don't help our economy.

Indeed. It's not even a discussion is it? Just imagine going into 2021 with the financial rebuild from this and WTO terms. Carnage.

Of course it's a bloody discussion. What insufferable arrogance to insist that there is no sensible alternative but to extend the already substantially extended process and then to label those who hold a different position as thickos or nutters. But then we leavers are used to this sort of insulting and patronising behaviour from those who believe that the sun shines from the posterior orifice of the EU and that they are our lords and masters and we could not possible survive, let alone thrive as an independent sovereign nation any longer without their interference.

Here is a good summary of the forthcoming events for the talks next week, outlining the agenda and what each side would wish to be the outcome and what the stumbling blocks could be.

Feel free to dismiss it all as a load of rubbish, as I'm sure you will because you did not wish to leave the EU in the first place, but give good reasons why these issues will not remain exactly the same after a delay, or even worse afterwards. Also instead of just a simple few words dismissing anybody who doesn't support extending the deadline as nutters, let's have your detailed assessment on what position the UK should take if the EU insist on level playing field rules, continued access to our fisheries, jurisdiction of the ECJ, etc. Should we discuss those things and others now and then put them on the back burner for a year? Or should we decide that if we can't get a satisfactory arrangement that suits us within the next couple of months, that there really is no point in discussing it further, as it won't change after a year's delay? You'd have us continuing the business uncertainty and continue paying into the EU slush fund, would you? Without a FTA, there is a good case for not paying the £39 billion, or at least reducing it quite a bit. That would be a great help to our beleaguered economy, and another effective bargaining ploy.