Brexit - Enter at Your Own Risk

[shurlock]

Because "don't knows" are removed.

Ie 54 % of people who bothered to give an answer.

Which is disingenuous unless don't knows aren't British adults.

[Nolan]

Had percentages been reversed, I'm sure it would be headline news on TV.

[shurlock]

Had percentages been reversed, I'm sure it would be headline news on TV.

What like its headline news every time a new poll shows that a majority would vote remain in a new referendum or a majority regrets the vote to leave the EU? Can't say I've seen much of that pal. Then again I'm living on planet earth.

[Nolan]

What like its headline news every time a new poll shows that a majority would vote remain in a new referendum or a majority regrets the vote to leave the EU? Can't say I've seen much of that pal. Then again I'm living on planet earth.

Just a version of planet earth without Sky News, or BBC Radio 4s today programme apparently.

[Danbert]

Hint. It won't effect the Irish border.

How could it not affect the Irish border you utter mong?

[badgerx16]

Because "don't knows" are removed.

Ie 54 % of people who bothered to give an answer.

So the DT story is deliberately factually incorrect.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

How could it not affect the Irish border you utter mong?

I asked him this last week as well - he didn't answer then either.

[aintforever]

Because "don't knows" are removed.

Ie 54 % of people who bothered to give an answer.

To be fair "don't know" is an answer. Usually the stock Bexiteer answer to any question regarding the Irish border.

[Shroppie]

To be fair "don't know" is an answer. Usually the stock Bexiteer answer to any question regarding the Irish border.

Or any other questions about the actual impact of Brexit, with or without a deal.

It doesn't matter. We're taking back control!

And to protect a vote that was about preserving our democracy and the sovereignty of our parliament, Johnson is desperately trying to undemocratically circumvent parliament.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

[Guided Missile]

So the DT story is deliberately factually incorrect.

The biggest straw Remainers have clutched at is that the 54 per cent support ComRes found for Mr Johnson proroguing Parliament to deliver Brexit excludes those who responded "don't know" to the question. "It is a bald-faced lie," David Lammy declared on Twitter, "and they know it, excluding 'Don't Knows' to manufacture a response." Other Labour MPs, such as Ben Bradshaw, shared messages dismissing the findings as "very questionable".

Yet Mr Bradshaw was only too happy late last year to trumpet a YouGov "study" commissioned by the so-called "People's Vote" campaign that found – after excluding don't knows – most voters in Labour seats wanted another referendum.

At the same time, Remainers were gleefully sharing the poll of 20,000 people Channel 4 commissioned from Survation, which found that – once they had excluded don't knows – 54 per cent of those surveyed would vote to stay in the EU. "MPs stop & listen to the real time will of the people", Gina Miller declared, not letting the exclusion of don't knows stop her from treating it as authoritative.

It is telling that Remainers never expressed a problem with this standard technique when it was used for surveys which supported their views.

It is perfectly legitimate to exclude "don't knows" in order to get a closer sense of what the public thinks, taking the logical assumption that those on the fence fall similarly to those who had already made up their minds.

[Whitey Grandad]

The biggest straw Remainers have clutched at is that the 54 per cent support ComRes found for Mr Johnson proroguing Parliament to deliver Brexit excludes those who responded "don't know" to the question. "It is a bald-faced lie," David Lammy declared on Twitter, "and they know it, excluding 'Don't Knows' to manufacture a response." Other Labour MPs, such as Ben Bradshaw, shared messages dismissing the findings as "very questionable".

Yet Mr Bradshaw was only too happy late last year to trumpet a YouGov "study" commissioned by the so-called "People's Vote" campaign that found – after excluding don't knows – most voters in Labour seats wanted another referendum.

At the same time, Remainers were gleefully sharing the poll of 20,000 people Channel 4 commissioned from Survation, which found that – once they had excluded don't knows – 54 per cent of those surveyed would vote to stay in the EU. "MPs stop & listen to the real time will of the people", Gina Miller declared, not letting the exclusion of don't knows stop her from treating it as authoritative.

It is telling that Remainers never expressed a problem with this standard technique when it was used for surveys which supported their views.

It is perfectly legitimate to exclude "don't knows" in order to get a closer sense of what the public thinks, taking the logical assumption that those on the fence fall similarly to those who had already made up their minds.

That depends on the total of ‘don’t knows. If 90% were don’t know then the figures are meaningless.

Mind you, they’re meaningless anyway.

[shurlock]

The biggest straw Remainers have clutched at is that the 54 per cent support ComRes found for Mr Johnson proroguing Parliament to deliver Brexit excludes those who responded "don't know" to the question. "It is a bald-faced lie," David Lammy declared on Twitter, "and they know it, excluding 'Don't Knows' to manufacture a response." Other Labour MPs, such as Ben Bradshaw, shared messages dismissing the findings as "very questionable".

Yet Mr Bradshaw was only too happy late last year to trumpet a YouGov "study" commissioned by the so-called "People's Vote" campaign that found – after excluding don't knows – most voters in Labour seats wanted another referendum.

At the same time, Remainers were gleefully sharing the poll of 20,000 people Channel 4 commissioned from Survation, which found that – once they had excluded don't knows – 54 per cent of those surveyed would vote to stay in the EU. "MPs stop & listen to the real time will of the people", Gina Miller declared, not letting the exclusion of don't knows stop her from treating it as authoritative.

It is telling that Remainers never expressed a problem with this standard technique when it was used for surveys which supported their views.

It is perfectly legitimate to exclude "don't knows" in order to get a closer sense of what the public thinks, taking the logical assumption that those on the fence fall similarly to those who had already made up their minds.

Or you can look at this pal

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ould-you-vote/
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...-leave-the-eu/

The don't knows are kept separate so you don't get confused.

Keep up

FWIW Peter Kellner convincingly demolished the methodology and loaded sequencing of questions in the ComRes poll but that's another story.

[badgerx16]

It is perfectly legitimate to exclude "don't knows" in order to get a closer sense of what the public thinks, taking the logical assumption that those on the fence fall similarly to those who had already made up their minds.

So report it as "54% of those who expressed a definitive opinion" rather than "54% of people questioned". The DT article was a deliberate falsehood intended to promote a particular political opinion, if other polls are similarly misrepresented then those articles are equally mendacious.

[Guided Missile]

So report it as "54% of those who expressed a definitive opinion" rather than "54% of people questioned". The DT article was a deliberate falsehood intended to promote a particular political opinion, if other polls are similarly misrepresented then those articles are equally mendacious.

There was only one poll that counted and you lost. So move on and accept we're leaving. You might become less bitter that way.

[badgerx16]

There was only one poll that counted and you lost. So move on and accept we're leaving. You might become less bitter that way.

Take a look at post #8670.
( The only ones coming across as bitter on this thread seem to be the more vociferous Brexiteers ).

The point of the DT article was to mislead people into believing that a majority of the electorate support prorogation of Paliament, which they patently do not.

[doddisalegend]

We can’t say we didn’t know John Bolton was a snake before we took him in

Trump’s national security adviser is in Britain to exploit UK weakness for US self-interest and absolutely nothing more.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a9056106.html

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

[badgerx16]

We can’t say we didn’t know John Bolton was a snake before we took him in

Trump’s national security adviser is in Britain to exploit UK weakness for US self-interest and absolutely nothing more.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a9056106.html

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

We might as well start learning the words to The Star Spangled Banner, and teaching our school children to recite the pledge of allegiance. But hey, we got our sovereignty back, ( for about 5 minutes ).

[shurlock]

We might as well start learning the words to The Star Spangler Banner, and teaching our school children to recite the pledge of allegiance. But hey, we got our sovereignty back, ( for about 5 minutes ).

Its pretty clear that JJ is a wannabe yank.

[Guided Missile]

Are you serious? This is far worse than 2008. The fall in the world's stockmarkets on Friday was $2,000,000,000,000 .

As i just said to Wes, you have no idea of the damage that you have caused.

3 Years Later:

Wage growth in the UK reached an 11-year high in the year to June, and the employment rate was its joint highest since 1971, official figures show. Wage growth rose to 3.9%, while the estimated 76.1% employment rate was the best since comparative records began:



Meanwhile, in Germany:

[Batman]

Red Len is now backing the UK to leave on Oct 31st, without a deal if required.

[badgerx16]

Nancy Pelosi again stating that any adverse impact on the Good Friday Agreement would result in a post-Brexit trade deal with the US being blocked.

[Guided Missile]

Red Len is now backing the UK to leave on Oct 31st, without a deal if required.

I enjoyed watching him in action at the last Unite committee meeting:

[Guided Missile]

Nancy Pelosi again stating that any adverse impact on the Good Friday Agreement would result in a post-Brexit trade deal with the US being blocked.

That b!tch should go back to Italy and help sort their problems out, rather than worrying about the Irish...

[shurlock]

3 Years Later:

Wage growth in the UK reached an 11-year high in the year to June, and the employment rate was its joint highest since 1971, official figures show. Wage growth rose to 3.9%, while the estimated 76.1% employment rate was the best since comparative records began:

UK productivity levels remain dismal and productivity growth continues to fall -and at the end of the day productivity is the single most important indicator of a country's economic health.

Wages have risen and labour markets are tight because companies are terrified of making productivity-enhancing investments (recall above) as a result of Brexit uncertainty. Its far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology should the s**t hit the fan.

So its hardly an unequivocal ringing endorsement but then again you do struggle with complexity.

[badgerx16]

That b!tch should go back to Italy and help sort their problems out, rather than worrying about the Irish...

"SEND THEM BACK!"
( Nancy Pelosi was born in Baltimore, as was her father ).

[buctootim]

That b!tch should go back to Italy and help sort their problems out, rather than worrying about the Irish...

Well she’s American born and bred, so even with Trump fanboy logic, that would be tricky. Would be easier to send you back to Pompey, you already know the culture and fit right in. That or some country that’s on the edge of bankruptcy.

[Guided Missile]

UK productivity levels remain dismal and productivity growth continues to fall -and at the end of the day productivity is the single most important indicator of a country's economic health.

Wages have risen and labour markets are tight because companies are terrified of making productivity-enhancing investments (recall above) as a result of Brexit uncertainty. Its far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology should the s**t hit the fan.

So its hardly an unequivocal ringing endorsement but then again you do struggle with complexity.

You seem to struggle with fundamentals, Herbert. Productivity may well be an important indicator of a country's economic health, if that country depends largely on manufacturing like Germany. If like the UK, 80% of the economy is service based, I am struggling with the point of your regular lecture on the basics of economics relating to the UK. Maybe our service based economy is better at avoiding recessions, when there are trade wars, than Germany, whose auto sector has found it "far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology" such as electric cars.

I'd go and have a lie down mate, before you show yourself up again.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

UK productivity levels remain dismal and productivity growth continues to fall -and at the end of the day productivity is the single most important indicator of a country's economic health.

Wages have risen and labour markets are tight because companies are terrified of making productivity-enhancing investments (recall above) as a result of Brexit uncertainty. Its far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology should the s**t hit the fan.

So its hardly an unequivocal ringing endorsement but then again you do struggle with complexity.

It's not just that, it's also the normalisation of a drop in real wages that had been going down for years. It was always going to right itself as it was artificially low, and as you can see that started at the end of 2014.

You can actually see a stall in 2016, when Brexit happened, but it has again slowly grown after that stagnation.

I would suggest that had it not been for Brexit, and if we'd have carried on at the same trajectory, we'd have been nearer the £540 mark.

The problem with GM, as always, is that he doesn't seem to understand context. He tends to pick up graphs from Brexit Central, or the latest Brexit site du jour, and parrot it back to us. The problem is those websites don't understand economics, and neither does he.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

You seem to struggle with fundamentals, Herbert. Productivity may well be an important indicator of a country's economic health, if that country depends largely on manufacturing like Germany. If like the UK, 80% of the economy is service based, I am struggling with the point of your regular lecture on the basics of economics relating to the UK. Maybe our service based economy is better at avoiding recessions, when there are trade wars, than Germany, whose auto sector has found it "far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology" such as electric cars.

I'd go and have a lie down mate, before you show yourself up again.

Your problem is that you only know the fundamentals, and unfortunately with Economics, it is the contributary factors that change the definition of those fundamentals.

What you've seen here is correlation, not causation.

[shurlock]

You seem to struggle with fundamentals, Herbert. Productivity may well be an important indicator of a country's economic health, if that country depends largely on manufacturing like Germany. If like the UK, 80% of the economy is service based, I am struggling with the point of your regular lecture on the basics of economics relating to the UK. Maybe our service based economy is better at avoiding recessions, when there are trade wars, than Germany, whose auto sector has found it "far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology" such as electric cars.

I'd go and have a lie down mate, before you show yourself up again.

I don’t know where to start with this except to say continue to plumb new depths in brain-addling thickness.

Productivity is only an important indicator if you’re a manufacturing-based economy like Germany. That’s a new one. Perhaps you should lecture the BoE, HM Treasury, the great and the good of academia why their single-minded obsession with it is misplaced.



As for the rest of your post about trade wars and recessions it’s incomprehensible.

[benjii]

You seem to struggle with fundamentals, Herbert. Productivity may well be an important indicator of a country's economic health, if that country depends largely on manufacturing like Germany. If like the UK, 80% of the economy is service based, I am struggling with the point of your regular lecture on the basics of economics relating to the UK. Maybe our service based economy is better at avoiding recessions, when there are trade wars, than Germany, whose auto sector has found it "far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology" such as electric cars.

I'd go and have a lie down mate, before you show yourself up again.

You know "productivity" doesn't mean "making stuff" in this context, right?

[shurlock]

You know "productivity" doesn't mean "making stuff" in this context, right?

[Whitey Grandad]

You know "productivity" doesn't mean "making stuff" in this context, right?

He confuses ‘productivity’ with ‘production’.

True, they are both long words and sticking with them to the end requires extreme concentration

[Whitey Grandad]

3 Years Later:

Wage growth in the UK reached an 11-year high in the year to June, and the employment rate was its joint highest since 1971, official figures show. Wage growth rose to 3.9%, while the estimated 76.1% employment rate was the best since comparative records began:



Meanwhile, in Germany:

So wages have still not reached the level of ten years ago and what has Germany got to do with us?

I don’t know what you thought these figures demonstrated nor what you were trying to prove.

[Guided Missile]

So wages have still not reached the level of ten years ago and what has Germany got to do with us?

I don’t know what you thought these figures demonstrated nor what you were trying to prove.

Your post was made in 2016, Private Frazer and you, like everyone else, swallowed Project Fear hook, line and sinker....

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Your post was made in 2016, Private Frazer and you, like everyone else, swallowed Project Fear hook, line and sinker....

Your credibility was very low to start with, but after this latest escapade you're finally down to Wes levels, and that is embarrassing.

Sucks to be you, bro.

[Guided Missile]

I don’t know where to start with this except to say continue to plumb new depths in brain-addling thickness.

Productivity is only an important indicator if you’re a manufacturing-based economy like Germany. That’s a new one. Perhaps you should lecture the BoE, HM Treasury, the great and the good of academia why their single-minded obsession with it is misplaced.



As for the rest of your post about trade wars and recessions it’s incomprehensible.

Mate, you have just confirmed you know squat. Of course productivity is a more important factor as a measure of the economy of a manufacturing based economy than a service based economy, unless you can share exactly how you accurately measure productivity in the service sector.
As far as the Treasury and the BoE, upon whose alters you worship, remind me of their forecasts of the employment data following a vote to leave the EU. You were obviously groomed during your economics degree to believe it's a science, but since pre-2008, the Treasury and BoE forecasts have been defined by being consistently wrong.
Now back on ignore for you. I gave you a chance but you obviously have $h!t for brains....

“Economists exist to make the weathermen look good”

[CB Fry]

Mate, you have just confirmed you know squat. Of course productivity is a more important factor as a measure of the economy of a manufacturing based economy than a service based economy, unless you can share exactly how you accurately measure productivity in the service sector.
As far as the Treasury and the BoE, upon whose alters you worship, remind me of their forecasts of the employment data following a vote to leave the EU. You were obviously groomed during your economics degree to believe it's a science, but since pre-2008, the Treasury and BoE forecasts have been defined by being consistently wrong.
Now back on ignore for you. I gave you a chance but you obviously have $h!t for brains....

“Economists exist to make the weathermen look good”

Productivity of face palms has gone through the effing roof on this forum.

[badgerx16]

Remember this gem from November ?

I am a moron,

I know it's selective quoting, but still......

[Guided Missile]

Treasury forecast prior to referendum in 2016:

A vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment. The analysis shows that the economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth. After two years, GDP would be around 3.6% lower in the shock scenario compared with a vote to remain. In this scenario, the analysis shows that the fall in the value of the pound would be around 12%, and unemployment would increase by around 500,000, with all regions experiencing a rise in the number of people out of work. The exchange-rate-driven increase in the price of imports would lead to a material increase in prices, with the CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Mate, you have just confirmed you know squat. Of course productivity is a more important factor as a measure of the economy of a manufacturing based economy than a service based economy, unless you can share exactly how you accurately measure productivity in the service sector.
As far as the Treasury and the BoE, upon whose alters you worship, remind me of their forecasts of the employment data following a vote to leave the EU. You were obviously groomed during your economics degree to believe it's a science, but since pre-2008, the Treasury and BoE forecasts have been defined by being consistently wrong.
Now back on ignore for you. I gave you a chance but you obviously have $h!t for brains....

“Economists exist to make the weathermen look good”

You don't know what productivity is, clearly.

Here's some help:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/productivity.asp

And here's a book for you:

https://www.worldofbooks.com/en-gb/b...0aAh4JEALw_wcB

[Guided Missile]

OECD Germany - Economic forecast summary in 2016:

Economic growth is projected to remain solid, as a robust labour market and low oil prices underpin private consumption, while low interest rates and the housing needs of refugees boost residential investment. Business investment will strengthen somewhat, as capacity utilisation and employment rise. Demand for German exports in emerging market economies and euro area countries are expected to recover gradually.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

OECD Germany - Economic forecast summary in 2016:

And what of that does the above graph not show - it continued to do well for a couple of years until 2018.

What's your point?

[Guided Missile]

He confuses ‘productivity’ with ‘production’.
True, they are both long words and sticking with them to the end requires extreme concentration

By dividing the German and UK economy into different sectors, there are certainly more problems for productivity measurement in the service sector than the manufacturing sector because it is more difficult to define what productivity is in the service sector compared to the manufacturing sector. For this reason, the measurement of productivity in more important in defining the manufacturing based German economy than the service based UK economy. To different people, productivity means different things, which is expressed in the different or even conflicting definitions and perceptions of productivity. Productivity measurement in service is difficult because it is hard to standardise the inputs and outputs which are highly heterogeneous

[Guided Missile]

Businessmen realise that economists do not dispense any reliable information about things to come and that all that they provide is interpretation of statistical data referring to the past. For capitalists and entrepreneurs, economists’ opinions about the future count only as questionable conjectures. . . . business forecasting fails in the vain attempts to make the uncertainty of the future disappear and to deprive entrepreneurship of its inherently speculative character. In the end, what will make Britain great again is the entrepreneurs to be free to speculate and generate wealth, leaving the politicians and economists to continue to stare in the rear view mirror.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

By dividing the German and UK economy into different sectors, there are certainly more problems for productivity measurement in the service sector than the manufacturing sector because it is more difficult to define what productivity is in the service sector compared to the manufacturing sector. For this reason, the measurement of productivity in more important in defining the manufacturing based German economy than the service based UK economy. To different people, productivity means different things, which is expressed in the different or even conflicting definitions and perceptions of productivity. Productivity measurement in service is difficult because it is hard to standardise the inputs and outputs which are highly heterogeneous

Productivity = GDP / Man Hours

Makes no difference what industry you're in, you absolute plum.

In all your little graphs, articles etc, productivity is defined as the above. Just because you've got a different, **** definition, doesn't mean that every(any)one else uses it.

[shurlock]

Mate, you have just confirmed you know squat. Of course productivity is a more important factor as a measure of the economy of a manufacturing based economy than a service based economy, unless you can share exactly how you accurately measure productivity in the service sector.
As far as the Treasury and the BoE, upon whose alters you worship, remind me of their forecasts of the employment data following a vote to leave the EU. You were obviously groomed during your economics degree to believe it's a science, but since pre-2008, the Treasury and BoE forecasts have been defined by being consistently wrong.
Now back on ignore for you. I gave you a chance but you obviously have $h!t for brains....

“Economists exist to make the weathermen look good”

Labour productivity the most widely used and internationally accepted measure of productivity – output per hour worked?

Output might be measured in terms of sales or revenues (the value of goods and services produced), GVA (the value of goods and services produced minus the cost of inputs that are used up in production) or GDP (the sum of all the gross value added by all producers in the economy).

In other words, you can calculate output for any good or service that is bought and sold on the market (using current prices or deflated to a common year’s real value). The situation is different for government activities since there are no sales/prices to calculate output. But for businesses operating in private sector, things are relatively straightforward. Lest I’ve lost you, you do realise that service businesses sell stuff – for example I sell my consultancy wares to who’ll ever buy them. That’s no different from you flogging your EU-banned insecticide.

This isn’t to say that prices are always perfect as an output measure - for example price variation may embody differences in market power across firms rather than product or service quality differences in which case productivity will say less about how efficient a firm is and more about the state of market in which it operates. But that applies equally to service and manufacturing firms.

As for hours work, that should be self-explanatory – they’re all the hours you should be working instead of getting utterly destroyed on here

More detailed approaches will break this down further - for example by taking into account differences in workers’ educational attainment, skills and experience but the approach is same for manufacturing as it is for services.

[shurlock]

And who mentioned forecasting which is imprecise at the best of times? We're discussing measurement issues which economists are much more comfortable with.

[whelk]

Lovely people these Brexiteers.

[rallyboy]

He's just an ordinary guy on the street sticking it to the elite.
And he seems to be having fantasies about teenage girls dying.

A thoroughly unpleasant waste of bones and flesh.