Leave Before - Leave Now
Leave Before - Remain Now
Leave Before - Not Bothered Now
Remain Before - Remain Now
Remain Before - Leave Now
Remain Before - Not Bothered Now
Not Bothered Before - Leave Now
Not Bothered Before - Remain Now
I've never been bothered - Why am I on this Thread?
No second Ref - 2016 was Definitive and Binding
Had percentages been reversed, I'm sure it would be headline news on TV.
Or any other questions about the actual impact of Brexit, with or without a deal.
It doesn't matter. We're taking back control!
And to protect a vote that was about preserving our democracy and the sovereignty of our parliament, Johnson is desperately trying to undemocratically circumvent parliament.
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The biggest straw Remainers have clutched at is that the 54 per cent support ComRes found for Mr Johnson proroguing Parliament to deliver Brexit excludes those who responded "don't know" to the question. "It is a bald-faced lie," David Lammy declared on Twitter, "and they know it, excluding 'Don't Knows' to manufacture a response." Other Labour MPs, such as Ben Bradshaw, shared messages dismissing the findings as "very questionable".
Yet Mr Bradshaw was only too happy late last year to trumpet a YouGov "study" commissioned by the so-called "People's Vote" campaign that found – after excluding don't knows – most voters in Labour seats wanted another referendum.
At the same time, Remainers were gleefully sharing the poll of 20,000 people Channel 4 commissioned from Survation, which found that – once they had excluded don't knows – 54 per cent of those surveyed would vote to stay in the EU. "MPs stop & listen to the real time will of the people", Gina Miller declared, not letting the exclusion of don't knows stop her from treating it as authoritative.
It is telling that Remainers never expressed a problem with this standard technique when it was used for surveys which supported their views.
It is perfectly legitimate to exclude "don't knows" in order to get a closer sense of what the public thinks, taking the logical assumption that those on the fence fall similarly to those who had already made up their minds.
Or you can look at this pal
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...ould-you-vote/
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...-leave-the-eu/
The don't knows are kept separate so you don't get confused.
Keep up
FWIW Peter Kellner convincingly demolished the methodology and loaded sequencing of questions in the ComRes poll but that's another story.
So report it as "54% of those who expressed a definitive opinion" rather than "54% of people questioned". The DT article was a deliberate falsehood intended to promote a particular political opinion, if other polls are similarly misrepresented then those articles are equally mendacious.
Take a look at post #8670.
( The only ones coming across as bitter on this thread seem to be the more vociferous Brexiteers ).
The point of the DT article was to mislead people into believing that a majority of the electorate support prorogation of Paliament, which they patently do not.
Last edited by badgerx16; 13-08-2019 at 08:43 PM.
We can’t say we didn’t know John Bolton was a snake before we took him in
Trump’s national security adviser is in Britain to exploit UK weakness for US self-interest and absolutely nothing more.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a9056106.html
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3 Years Later:
Wage growth in the UK reached an 11-year high in the year to June, and the employment rate was its joint highest since 1971, official figures show. Wage growth rose to 3.9%, while the estimated 76.1% employment rate was the best since comparative records began:
Meanwhile, in Germany:
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Red Len is now backing the UK to leave on Oct 31st, without a deal if required.
Nancy Pelosi again stating that any adverse impact on the Good Friday Agreement would result in a post-Brexit trade deal with the US being blocked.
UK productivity levels remain dismal and productivity growth continues to fall -and at the end of the day productivity is the single most important indicator of a country's economic health.
Wages have risen and labour markets are tight because companies are terrified of making productivity-enhancing investments (recall above) as a result of Brexit uncertainty. Its far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology should the s**t hit the fan.
So its hardly an unequivocal ringing endorsement but then again you do struggle with complexity.
You seem to struggle with fundamentals, Herbert. Productivity may well be an important indicator of a country's economic health, if that country depends largely on manufacturing like Germany. If like the UK, 80% of the economy is service based, I am struggling with the point of your regular lecture on the basics of economics relating to the UK. Maybe our service based economy is better at avoiding recessions, when there are trade wars, than Germany, whose auto sector has found it "far easier to hire and then lay people off than make costly, irreversible commitments in new technology" such as electric cars.
I'd go and have a lie down mate, before you show yourself up again.
It's not just that, it's also the normalisation of a drop in real wages that had been going down for years. It was always going to right itself as it was artificially low, and as you can see that started at the end of 2014.
You can actually see a stall in 2016, when Brexit happened, but it has again slowly grown after that stagnation.
I would suggest that had it not been for Brexit, and if we'd have carried on at the same trajectory, we'd have been nearer the Ł540 mark.
The problem with GM, as always, is that he doesn't seem to understand context. He tends to pick up graphs from Brexit Central, or the latest Brexit site du jour, and parrot it back to us. The problem is those websites don't understand economics, and neither does he.
Last edited by Unbelievable Jeff; 14-08-2019 at 06:19 PM.
Last edited by Unbelievable Jeff; 14-08-2019 at 06:25 PM.
I don’t know where to start with this except to say continue to plumb new depths in brain-addling thickness.
Productivity is only an important indicator if you’re a manufacturing-based economy like Germany. That’s a new one. Perhaps you should lecture the BoE, HM Treasury, the great and the good of academia why their single-minded obsession with it is misplaced.
As for the rest of your post about trade wars and recessions it’s incomprehensible.
Last edited by shurlock; 14-08-2019 at 06:51 PM.
Mate, you have just confirmed you know squat. Of course productivity is a more important factor as a measure of the economy of a manufacturing based economy than a service based economy, unless you can share exactly how you accurately measure productivity in the service sector.
As far as the Treasury and the BoE, upon whose alters you worship, remind me of their forecasts of the employment data following a vote to leave the EU. You were obviously groomed during your economics degree to believe it's a science, but since pre-2008, the Treasury and BoE forecasts have been defined by being consistently wrong.
Now back on ignore for you. I gave you a chance but you obviously have $h!t for brains....
“Economists exist to make the weathermen look good”
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Treasury forecast prior to referendum in 2016:
A vote to leave would result in a recession, a spike in inflation and a rise in unemployment. The analysis shows that the economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth. After two years, GDP would be around 3.6% lower in the shock scenario compared with a vote to remain. In this scenario, the analysis shows that the fall in the value of the pound would be around 12%, and unemployment would increase by around 500,000, with all regions experiencing a rise in the number of people out of work. The exchange-rate-driven increase in the price of imports would lead to a material increase in prices, with the CPI inflation rate higher by 2.3 percentage points after a year.
You don't know what productivity is, clearly.
Here's some help:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/productivity.asp
And here's a book for you:
https://www.worldofbooks.com/en-gb/b...0aAh4JEALw_wcB
OECD Germany - Economic forecast summary in 2016:
Economic growth is projected to remain solid, as a robust labour market and low oil prices underpin private consumption, while low interest rates and the housing needs of refugees boost residential investment. Business investment will strengthen somewhat, as capacity utilisation and employment rise. Demand for German exports in emerging market economies and euro area countries are expected to recover gradually.
By dividing the German and UK economy into different sectors, there are certainly more problems for productivity measurement in the service sector than the manufacturing sector because it is more difficult to define what productivity is in the service sector compared to the manufacturing sector. For this reason, the measurement of productivity in more important in defining the manufacturing based German economy than the service based UK economy. To different people, productivity means different things, which is expressed in the different or even conflicting definitions and perceptions of productivity. Productivity measurement in service is difficult because it is hard to standardise the inputs and outputs which are highly heterogeneous
Businessmen realise that economists do not dispense any reliable information about things to come and that all that they provide is interpretation of statistical data referring to the past. For capitalists and entrepreneurs, economists’ opinions about the future count only as questionable conjectures. . . . business forecasting fails in the vain attempts to make the uncertainty of the future disappear and to deprive entrepreneurship of its inherently speculative character. In the end, what will make Britain great again is the entrepreneurs to be free to speculate and generate wealth, leaving the politicians and economists to continue to stare in the rear view mirror.
Last edited by Guided Missile; 14-08-2019 at 09:17 PM.
Productivity = GDP / Man Hours
Makes no difference what industry you're in, you absolute plum.
In all your little graphs, articles etc, productivity is defined as the above. Just because you've got a different, **** definition, doesn't mean that every(any)one else uses it.
Labour productivity the most widely used and internationally accepted measure of productivity – output per hour worked?
Output might be measured in terms of sales or revenues (the value of goods and services produced), GVA (the value of goods and services produced minus the cost of inputs that are used up in production) or GDP (the sum of all the gross value added by all producers in the economy).
In other words, you can calculate output for any good or service that is bought and sold on the market (using current prices or deflated to a common year’s real value). The situation is different for government activities since there are no sales/prices to calculate output. But for businesses operating in private sector, things are relatively straightforward. Lest I’ve lost you, you do realise that service businesses sell stuff – for example I sell my consultancy wares to who’ll ever buy them. That’s no different from you flogging your EU-banned insecticide.
This isn’t to say that prices are always perfect as an output measure - for example price variation may embody differences in market power across firms rather than product or service quality differences in which case productivity will say less about how efficient a firm is and more about the state of market in which it operates. But that applies equally to service and manufacturing firms.
As for hours work, that should be self-explanatory – they’re all the hours you should be working instead of getting utterly destroyed on here
More detailed approaches will break this down further - for example by taking into account differences in workers’ educational attainment, skills and experience but the approach is same for manufacturing as it is for services.
Last edited by shurlock; 15-08-2019 at 02:15 AM.
And who mentioned forecasting which is imprecise at the best of times? We're discussing measurement issues which economists are much more comfortable with.
Lovely people these Brexiteers.
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He's just an ordinary guy on the street sticking it to the elite.
And he seems to be having fantasies about teenage girls dying.
A thoroughly unpleasant waste of bones and flesh.
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