View Poll Results: Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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  • Leave Before - Leave Now

    35 22.15%
  • Leave Before - Remain Now

    8 5.06%
  • Leave Before - Not Bothered Now

    2 1.27%
  • Remain Before - Remain Now

    88 55.70%
  • Remain Before - Leave Now

    6 3.80%
  • Remain Before - Not Bothered Now

    0 0%
  • Not Bothered Before - Leave Now

    3 1.90%
  • Not Bothered Before - Remain Now

    4 2.53%
  • I've never been bothered - Why am I on this Thread?

    2 1.27%
  • No second Ref - 2016 was Definitive and Binding

    10 6.33%
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Thread: Brexit - Enter at Your Own Risk

  1. #16201

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    How can you negotiate a trade deal with the EU, when the EU want the Elgin Marbles, ancient Greek sculptures taken to Britain more than 200 years ago and now on display in the British Museum, returned to Greece.

    Are these jokers for real?




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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I think that it is you who is confused, Timmy, or maybe you just misread what I had written. I never provided any link to the Treasury report, but I thank you for providing evidence showing that my figures were correct. It says that every family would be worse off financially to the tune of £4300 if we voted to leave the EU. I didn't go into specifics as to what the figures would be under different outcomes, as at that time before the referendum it was unclear about what the outcome would be. Your link was published 2 months before the referendum took place and you were espousing the Norway option, so I am not about to accept being called confused by you, Timmy. As I said, it was widely accepted that the Treasury figures were project fear writ large to show the remoaner worst case scenario.
    Still confused, or still lying. Which is it?

    The Treasury report showed a number of options with all the figures were based on 15 years after Brexit had been implemented - not after a vote to leave. All options were worse with the WTO producing the worst result

  3. #16203

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    ...
    Last edited by buctootim; 25-02-2020 at 11:02 AM. Reason: duplicate post

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    Still confused, or still lying. Which is it?

    The Treasury report showed a number of options with all the figures were based on 15 years after Brexit had been implemented - not after a vote to leave. All options were worse with the WTO producing the worst result
    You're usually quite bright, so I don't know why you're attempting to show the opposite today. It wasn't me who linked that report, it was you. I was happy to quote the example of the remoaner Treasury's £4300 forecast as evidence of them deliberately distorting statistics as part of project fear.
    Britain will be worse off by £4,300 a year per household if Britain votes to leave European Union, new analysis published today (18 April 2016) by the Treasury shows.
    Where did I try to connect it with any particular scenario, such as Canada, Norway, WTO? That's right; I didn't. I'll say it once again, just in case it doesn't penetrate once more. It was an example of the Treasury deliberately publishing distorted statistics as part of project fear before the referendum.

  5. #16205

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    Tom Newton Dunn on tw*tter.
    @tnewtondunn
    New: No10 wholly rejects the two most contentious chunks of the EU’s trade deal mandate - for a Level Playing Field that follows Union standards, and to maintain EU fishermen’s current fishing access to UK waters. (Monday’s first negotiation meeting could be a short one)
    Good news if true. But the EU holds all the cards, doesn't it?

  6. #16206

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Tom Newton Dunn on tw*tter.
    @tnewtondunn


    Good news if true. But the EU holds all the cards, doesn't it?
    Which EU official ever said that Les?

  7. #16207

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Tom Newton Dunn on tw*tter.
    @tnewtondunn


    Good news if true. But the EU holds all the cards, doesn't it?
    I heard, French fisherman are threatening to block eu ports and protest should the eu fail to agree a deal that allows them access to our waters...

    In other news, Shurlock tells pm eu don't need a deal, and they are all sorted and won't even notice we have left.... And all the eu country's are fully behind France and have sympathy for them and are wondering what they will do with out all the fish that the UK hardly consumes....

    Meanwhile, UK fisherman consider expanding to ship millions of tons if fish to the eu instead of them helping them self's.... Happy fisherman already out protecting our waters.. Good on them lol

  8. #16208

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mosin View Post
    I heard, French fisherman are threatening to block eu ports and protest should the eu fail to agree a deal that allows them access to our waters...

    In other news, Shurlock tells pm eu don't need a deal, and they are all sorted and won't even notice we havea left.... And all the eu country's are fully behind France and have sympathy for them and are wondering what they will do with out all the fish that the UK hardly consumes....

    Meanwhile, UK fisherman consider expanding to ship millions of tons if fish to the eu instead of them helping them self's.... Happy fisherman already out protecting our waters.. Good on them lol
    Can't edit so have post again.. So lame...

    And our ports.. Lol see. They don't care shurlock? They don't care about a no Deal.... We don't care about a no Deal and have been preparing for such an event... We just want our sovereignty..... ...


    See how the EU holding all the cards are going? We don't hold them all, but a no Deal to us although not ideal still gives us our sovereignty back and this is all we want back.... Any trade deal on top is a bonus.. But we are expecting a no Deal...

    I can picture bojo saying same on Thursday..

  9. #16209

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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ments-51658091

    It's all very encouraging stuff so far in the Government's agenda for the trade talks with the EU. I particularly like the idea that we just walk away from them if sufficient progress hasn't been made towards our stated aims by June

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51657273

    I like the idea of this as well:-

    The mandate seeks a suite of different agreements on fisheries, aviation, energy and migration, unlike the EU mandate, which seeks one whole agreement covering everything.
    We really are beginning to look quite good at this negotiations lark, now that we have somebody competent handling it. That was never the case with the terminally useless May and Robbins.

  10. Default

    Mutaba Rahman tweets:-

    Senior EU officials concede that it will be *impossible* to agree internally among the 27 which UK sectors/products should be hit with retaliatory EU tariffs if UK doesn't comply with EU's LPF demands. There's simply no time to have a line-by-line tariff negotiation.


    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/statu...30958975827969

  11. #16211

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I particularly like the idea that we just walk away from them if sufficient progress hasn't been made towards our stated aims by June
    Jeez you bend over whichever way Boris says to go. Last week you were vehemently denying that negotiations would need to complete by JUne

  12. #16212

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    Jeez you bend over whichever way Boris says to go. Last week you were vehemently denying that negotiations would need to complete by JUne
    Was I? I was saying that if a deal hadn't been agreed by the 31st December we would be out without one, but of course that is not the same as "vehememtly denying that negotiations would need to complete by June" is it?
    I'm sure that you'll be happy to post the quote. I did manage to find this though:-

    Do I have to repeat myself yet again? It will become clear on Thursday what we expect our leverage to be. Personally I would be happy if our negotiating leverage was to walk away from the talks and tell the EU that we will reopen them when they had come to their senses and were prepared to listen to what they were told by Frost in his speech last week. I'm entirely happy with WTO myself, so I don't know why you insist on your stuck record questioning.
    It seems to me that Boris I are on the same page, but clear also that I was already saying this previously.

  13. #16213

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    I sense a growing degree of panic in Brussels and the EU over our stance on what our terms will be for a FTA. In particular, where the EU were insisting that it would be extremely difficult to get a FTA over the line by the end of December, they are now being forced to accept that they will have to have a significant amount of it underway by the end of June, or we will simply walk away from the talks and prepare for WTO. The EU believed that the end of June was one of their aces to play, the deadline for us if we wished to ask for the Transition Agreement period to be extended. We have turned the tables on them and made it our deadline, already having made it clear that under no circumstances will we extend the Transition Agreement period beyond 31st December anyway. The EU have in the past delayed decisions on matters like these until the 11th hour as a negotiating tactic, a form of brinkmanship, expecting the other party to blink first and agree to their demands. Clearly we have outmaneuvered them, and by making it clear that we are willing to make preparations to go to WTO terms commencing from the end of June if they have not shown themselves serious about accepting our terms, the ball is firmly in their court.

  14. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I sense a growing degree of panic in Brussels and the EU over our stance on what our terms will be for a FTA. In particular, where the EU were insisting that it would be extremely difficult to get a FTA over the line by the end of December, they are now being forced to accept that they will have to have a significant amount of it underway by the end of June, or we will simply walk away from the talks and prepare for WTO. The EU believed that the end of June was one of their aces to play, the deadline for us if we wished to ask for the Transition Agreement period to be extended. We have turned the tables on them and made it our deadline, already having made it clear that under no circumstances will we extend the Transition Agreement period beyond 31st December anyway. The EU have in the past delayed decisions on matters like these until the 11th hour as a negotiating tactic, a form of brinkmanship, expecting the other party to blink first and agree to their demands. Clearly we have outmaneuvered them, and by making it clear that we are willing to make preparations to go to WTO terms commencing from the end of June if they have not shown themselves serious about accepting our terms, the ball is firmly in their court.
    Boris (and Dominic) continue to play a blinder...

  15. #16215

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I sense a growing degree of panic in Brussels and the EU over our stance on what our terms will be for a FTA. In particular, where the EU were insisting that it would be extremely difficult to get a FTA over the line by the end of December, they are now being forced to accept that they will have to have a significant amount of it underway by the end of June, or we will simply walk away from the talks and prepare for WTO.
    Still haven't grasped the basics. If the choice is between compromising the single market and no deal with the UK wandering off to WTO, they'll go for the wandering off.

  16. #16216

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    Still haven't grasped the basics. If the choice is between compromising the single market and no deal with the UK wandering off to WTO, they'll go for the wandering off.
    Yes, I can see that you haven't grasped the basics. The UK has stated clearly that if there is to be a FTA, it wants one similar to those already agreed with Canada, Japan and S.Korea. I presume that those deals didn't compromise the EU's single market rules, so why would a similar deal with us? If the EU wish to cut off their nose to spite their face by persisting to claim stupidly that a similar deal cannot be granted to us because of our geographical proximity, then more fool them. And just to be correct, it will not be the EU going for the wandering off to WTO, it will be us.

  17. #16217

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Yes, I can see that you haven't grasped the basics. The UK has stated clearly that if there is to be a FTA, it wants one similar to those already agreed with Canada, Japan and S.Korea. I presume that those deals didn't compromise the EU's single market rules, so why would a similar deal with us? If the EU wish to cut off their nose to spite their face by persisting to claim stupidly that a similar deal cannot be granted to us because of our geographical proximity, then more fool them. And just to be correct, it will not be the EU going for the wandering off to WTO, it will be us.
    You haven't even read the UK's proposals have you? I have attached them.

    FYI the UK wants to maintain current equivalence in rules for financial services (where it has a surplus with the EU). Undoubtedly the quid pro quo will be that the EU want equivalence in goods, including agriculture and fisheries, where it has a trade surplus with the UK. Both of those will require a mechanism for resolving disputes, tying in both parties to existing rules - the same EU rules the UK currently operates to. That's sovereignty for you - 'we have the right to choose our own rules, we just independently choose not to'

    https://assets.publishing.service.go...article_inline.
    Last edited by buctootim; 28-02-2020 at 12:40 PM.

  18. #16218

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    You haven't even read the UK's proposals have you? I have attached them.

    FYI the UK wants to maintain current equivalence in rules for financial services (where it has a surplus with the EU). Undoubtedly the quid pro quo will be that the EU want equivalence in goods, including agriculture and fisheries, where it has a trade surplus with the UK. Both of those will require a mechanism for resolving disputes, tying in both parties to existing rules - the same EU rules the UK currently operates to. That's sovereignty for you - 'we have the right to choose our own rules, we just independently choose not to'

    https://assets.publishing.service.go...article_inline.
    I have read them. It is comparatively short and concise compared with the EU's output in these areas that are prone to extend to the hundreds of pages of verbiage. The UK have ruled out equivalence on trade rules, so over to the EU to see whether they rule it out on financial services. In both areas it is in the mutual interests of both parties to come to a deal, but I suspect that WTO will be a lot more damaging to the EU on trade than it would be for our service industry.

    I note that you have not answered my question regarding where it is that you believe that a FTA like Canada, Japan or S.Korea compromises the EU's single market.

  19. #16219

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    Front page of the Fail on Sunday;
    A senior advisor at the Treasury, and chum of Dom, says that the UK doesn't need the farming or fishing industries.

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    Also in the Daily Mail, Sir Disaster, the Civil Service Mandarin involved in the spat with Priti Patel. It appears that getting shot of the likes of him from the Civil Service is long overdue.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ed-advice.html

  21. #16221

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Also in the Daily Mail, Sir Disaster, the Civil Service Mandarin involved in the spat with Priti Patel. It appears that getting shot of the likes of him from the Civil Service is long overdue.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ed-advice.html
    Because a hit piece by the Mail tells the full story? That’s desperate even by your standards, Les.

  22. #16222

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Because a hit piece by the Mail tells the full story? That’s desperate even by your standards, Les.
    Did I claim that it told the full story? No, I didn't. They have obviously reported what they have been told by their sources, bearing in mind that if anything that they have published was libelous, it could result in them being sued, of course. I await your bebunking of any part of it. No doubt we will hear Sir Disaster's side of the story in due course, but on the face of it, he isn't going to emerge from it smelling of roses.

    In the meantime, you might like to have a read of an article titled "The behaviours of the civil service" from Conservative Home, which gives a good assessment to the current situation between the Government and the Civil Service and provides some background to the situation regarding this seemingly incompetent Mandarin.

  23. #16223

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Did I claim that it told the full story? No, I didn't. They have obviously reported what they have been told by their sources, bearing in mind that if anything that they have published was libelous, it could result in them being sued, of course. I await your bebunking of any part of it. No doubt we will hear Sir Disaster's side of the story in due course, but on the face of it, he isn't going to emerge from it smelling of roses.

    In the meantime, you might like to have a read of an article titled "The behaviours of the civil service" from Conservative Home, which gives a good assessment to the current situation between the Government and the Civil Service and provides some background to the situation regarding this seemingly incompetent Mandarin.
    As I say, desperate even by your blinkered standards Les. And if you’re going to write a hit piece (never mind the classic “unnamed sources”), why not focus on the issues at hand?

    Conservative Home? Another cracking source of objectivity and nonpartisanship there
    Last edited by shurlock; 01-03-2020 at 12:09 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    ....this seemingly incompetent Mandarin.
    Perhaps the 'mandarin' was not the incompetent side of the disagreement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    As I say, desperate even by your blinkered standards Les. And if you’re going to write a hit piece (never mind the classic “unnamed sources”), why not focus on the issues at hand?

    Conservative Home? Another cracking source of objectivity and nonpartisanship there
    Did you read the article? Or do you only take stuff in the Guardian or the Not Independent to be the truth? What am I desperate for, Gavyn? I can't think of anything that is making me desperate. Do please enlighten me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Did you read the article? Or do you only take stuff in the Guardian or the Not Independent to be the truth? What am I desperate for, Gavyn? I can't think of anything that is making me desperate. Do please enlighten me.
    Well, whatever it is, it clearly doesn't apply to badger who quoted another headline from the same paper...

    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    Front page of the Fail on Sunday;
    A senior advisor at the Treasury, and chum of Dom, says that the UK doesn't need the farming or fishing industries.

  27. #16227

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    Well, whatever it is, it clearly doesn't apply to badger who quoted another headline from the same paper...
    The difference being that I merely quoted, for the giggle quotient, what is printed on the front page, as pictured on the BBC news site, ( which is where I saw it, I would not soil myself with actually handling that rag ), whereas Wes believes that the article he quoted is proven and trusted fact.
    I thought my post might be particularly provoking given the Brexiteer rhetoric over the boost to UK fisheries that leaving the EU is supposed to provide.
    Last edited by badgerx16; 01-03-2020 at 04:22 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    The difference being that I merely quoted, for the giggle quotient, what is printed on the front page, as pictured on the BBC news site, ( which is where I saw it, I would not soil myself with actually handling that rag ), whereas Wes believes that the article he quoted is proven and trusted fact.
    I thought my post might be particularly provoking given the Brexiteer rhetoric over the boost to UK fisheries that leaving the EU is supposed to provide.
    So I believe that the article is proven and trusted fact, do I? I don't recall claiming that it was. I merely stated an opinion that it was about time that the Civil Service got rid of the likes of Sir Disaster, having read that, and indeed other articles, from other sources saying that he was incompetent. As I asked Gavyn, no doubt you will be happy also to debunk any part of the article that you can prove to be false. I read a broad spectrum of media sources online, in order to see a wide range of views, but naturally I make allowances for the political agendas of each. I expect that it is this sort of sniffiness towards the Mail from the leftie Guardian reading Islington Corbynistas that put them in the position of not having the faintest idea what their traditional core voter support in the Midland and Northern industrial heartlands believed and wanted over Brexit.

  29. #16229

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    So I believe that the article is proven and trusted fact, do I? I don't recall claiming that it was. I merely stated an opinion that it was about time that the Civil Service got rid of the likes of Sir Disaster, having read that, and indeed other articles, from other sources saying that he was incompetent. As I asked Gavyn, no doubt you will be happy also to debunk any part of the article that you can prove to be false. I read a broad spectrum of media sources online, in order to see a wide range of views, but naturally I make allowances for the political agendas of each. I expect that it is this sort of sniffiness towards the Mail from the leftie Guardian reading Islington Corbynistas that put them in the position of not having the faintest idea what their traditional core voter support in the Midland and Northern industrial heartlands believed and wanted over Brexit.
    For someone who claims to read a broad spectrum of media sources, it’s amusing how you cite with unerring regularity sources that reflect only a tiny part of that spectrum.

    Btw any article that singles out a Permanent Secretary’s pay which is pittance given the responsibility and complexity of the role and compares it to the PM’s pay is an automatic red flag in my book. It is a textbook example of an apple and oranges comparison and simply cheap, rabble-raising populist shlock. Of course you wouldn’t know any better.

    Can I ask: have you ever worked in central government?
    Last edited by shurlock; 01-03-2020 at 06:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I read a broad spectrum of media sources online, in order to see a wide range of views, but naturally I make allowances for the political agendas of each.
    When was the last time you made an 'allowance' for the agenda of the Mail, or took on trust something in the Guardian ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    For someone who claims to read a broad spectrum of media sources, it’s amusing how you cite with unerring regularity sources that reflect only a tiny part of that spectrum.

    Btw any article that singles out a Permanent Secretary’s pay and compares it unfavourably to the PM’s pay is an automatic red flag in my book. It is a textbook example of an apple and oranges comparison. Of course you wouldn’t know any better.

    Can I ask: have you ever worked in central government?
    I see that neither you nor Badger are going to debunk anything that the article says. So I cite articles from sources that represent my opinions from the side of the political spectrum and policy positions that I approve of. What a revelation eh? Are you and Badger going to deny that you do exactly the same thing? I would have thought that it was a human nature trait, wouldn't you?

    I consider a comparison between the pay of the PM and a Civil Service mandarin to be more an eating apple and cooking apple one, or an orange and mandarin orange one. Apples and oranges is more one between the PM and say a Premier League footballer. And yes, I have worked in the Civil Service many moons ago, although quite what that has to do with anything is beyond me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    When was the last time you made an 'allowance' for the agenda of the Mail, or took on trust something in the Guardian ?
    When I have a different opinion to that expressed in those publications. Also, much depends on who the author of the article is. You?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I see that neither you nor Badger are going to debunk anything that the article says. So I cite articles from sources that represent my opinions from the side of the political spectrum and policy positions that I approve of. What a revelation eh? Are you and Badger going to deny that you do exactly the same thing? I would have thought that it was a human nature trait, wouldn't you?

    I consider a comparison between the pay of the PM and a Civil Service mandarin to be more an eating apple and cooking apple one, or an orange and mandarin orange one. Apples and oranges is more one between the PM and say a Premier League footballer. And yes, I have worked in the Civil Service many moons ago, although quite what that has to do with anything is beyond me.
    Not the benefits office or wherever it was.

    I asked have you worked in central government or Whitehall? Because if you had worked in it, you would know that if Rutnam was as incompetent as claimed, there is absolutely no way he would have risen through the ranks to become Permanent Secretary. For better or worse, Whitehall is risk-averse when it comes to promotions: competence, integrity and a safe pair of hands trump virtually everything else.

    Of course what all this has to do with Patel’s alleged bullying and lying is beyond me. Let’s see how his claim for unfair dismissal goes.
    Last edited by shurlock; 01-03-2020 at 08:13 PM.

  34. #16234

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    When I have a different opinion to that expressed in those publications. Also, much depends on who the author of the article is. You?
    I don't read either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    I see that neither you nor Badger are going to debunk anything that the article says.
    I am currently not in a position to investigate or critique that article, but at the same time I have absolutely no desire or need to do so. The fact it is in the Mail places it firmly in the 'dubious' category, and as such that summarises concisely my view of it.
    What is your take on the theoretical position that the UK does not need farming or fisheries ?

  36. #16236

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    God clearly disapproves of Brexit. Every weekend since we left the EU we have had a storm and now a plague is hitting us.

    It will be locusts next !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tamesaint View Post
    God clearly disapproves of Brexit. Every weekend since we left the EU we have had a storm and now a plague is hitting us.

    It will be locusts next !!
    Sunny in Berlin and Paris today. Coincidence? I think not!

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    What a week or two: from the humiliating admission that a trade deal with the US -presented as one of the great prizes of leaving the EU (see OP) will have a near negligible impact on the economy (don’t spend your winnings all at once lads); to the delay of the UK’s rival to Galileo (another symbol of post-Brexit independence) amid internal wrangling and rising costs; to Michael Gove endorsing claims that the UK will need to hire up up to 50,000 people to deal with an explosion of customs paperwork and red tape even if the UK secures a Canada-style deal; to Brexiters accusing the government of selling the country’s soul, security and sovereignty to Huawei and the Chinese state (that’s what happening when you’re the weaker party lads); to farmers in uproar over subsidies and post-Brexit plans, to deepening angst in NI over the border - reality is beginning to bite.

    Cue the usual ignorant sloganeering and conspiratorial nonsense from the usual suspects.

    #funandgames
    Last edited by shurlock; 07-03-2020 at 09:56 AM.

  39. #16239

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    What a week or two: from the humiliating admission that a trade deal with the US -presented as one of the great prizes of leaving the EU (see OP) will have a near negligible impact on the economy (don’t spend your winnings all at once lads); to the delay of the UK’s rival to Galileo (another symbol of post-Brexit independence) amid internal wrangling and rising costs; to Michael Gove endorsing claims that the UK will need to hire up up to 50,000 people to deal with an explosion of customs paperwork and red tape even if the UK secures a Canada-style deal; to Brexiters accusing the government of selling the country’s soul, security and sovereignty to Huawei and the Chinese state (that’s what happening when you’re the weaker party lads); to farmers in uproar over subsidies and post-Brexit plans, to deepening angst in NI over the border - reality is beginning to bite.

    Cue the usual ignorant sloganeering and conspiratorial nonsense from the usual suspects.

    #funandgames
    And then there's coronavirus too. You sound as if you're in need of a good chat to somebody at The Samaritans, Gavyn. We only left at the end of January. It's a bit premature for you to get so depressed and negative about things that might never happen.

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    I suppose if the virus is deadly and it will affect the elderly most, once this is over we will get the Remainers canvassing for another Eureferendum as the leave vote will have been culled.

  41. #16241

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    Quote Originally Posted by OldNick View Post
    I suppose if the virus is deadly and it will affect the elderly most, once this is over we will get the Remainers canvassing for another Eureferendum as the leave vote will have been culled.
    So it's a damned good thing that the body responsible for authorising referenda, the government, has a stonking great majority, and a solid Brexiteer cabinet too. I note that prominent former remoaners like our ex-chancellor Hammond (whatever happened to him?) have suggested that perhaps it would be a good idea to delay the Implementation period beyond the 31st December, as the coronavirus provided a decent excuse for him to attempt to put the trade talks on the back burner. Happily, that deadline is engraved into law and Boris has stated that it is not going to be overturned. The message doesn't seem to have penetrated Von De Leyen's brain yet, but it is still early days and the penny/pfennig/cent will eventually drop, no doubt.

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    The US will have to ride to Europe's rescue again.

    Italy needs a precautionary rescue of up to $700bn from the US and the major powers to head off the danger of a global crisis, a bail-out veteran from the International Monetary Fund has warned. Ashoka Mody, the IMF’s former deputy director in Europe, said economic fall-out from the coronavirus is pushing Italy to the brink of “vicious negative feedback loop”, raising the risk of a financial chain-reaction through the international system. A fully credible firewall would require funding of €500bn to €700bn, orders of magnitude greater than any previous package in history. “The Europeans can’t do it themselves. They’re hopelessly divided and financially much weaker than they were ten years ago. Their instinct will be to punt,” he said. Professor Mody said Italy’s economy is large enough to trigger a broader world crisis if mismanaged at this critical juncture. The Italian government is being forced to take ever more dramatic steps as the death toll soars to 631, with dire consequences for small businesses and companies already struggling to stay afloat after an economic relapse last year.

    On Tuesday Rome suspended all normal economic activity in Lombardy and the Veneto, with only pharmacies, food shops, and survival services remaining open. “Time is short. Germany and France are themselves about to experience rapid spread of the virus, and their economic and financial systems are already under acute stress,” said Prof Mody, who led the joint EU-IMF Troika rescue for Ireland during the eurozone crisis. The European bail-out machinery (ESM) is slow and bureaucratic, and requires the political assent of the German Bundestag under tough conditions. The threat is so big in any case that it would take the firepower of the US Treasury to convince markets, as well as funding from the IMF. Britain might have to take part. “They need to start now,” he said.
    It could be a credit line rather than actual funding. However, the Trump administration is preoccupied with the Covid-19 crisis at home and is highly unlikely to come to Europe’s aid until matters are already extremely serious. Italy’s sovereign debt is the world’s third largest in absolute terms at over €2 trillion and is tightly interwoven with the banking system. Italian bank stocks have halved in value since mid-February, almost guaranteeing a credit crunch and again raising the spectre of a sovereign-bank ‘doom-loop’ akin to events in 2011. The IMF can play a coordinating role but it lacks the money to backstop the Europeans on its own. It used up a shockingly large share of its resources during the joint Troika rescues in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. This challenge would be much greater.
    I bet there will be a lot of regret about the way that Trump has been treated by the EU (and Johnson, for that matter), as I have a feeling it will be all hands to the pump to save Italy. I also have a feeling the death knell for the euro is soon to be heard.

  43. #16243

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guided Missile View Post
    The US will have to ride to Europe's rescue again.



    I bet there will be a lot of regret about the way that Trump has been treated by the EU (and Johnson, for that matter), as I have a feeling it will be all hands to the pump to save Italy. I also have a feeling the death knell for the euro is soon to be heard.
    Not happening, ( the collapse of the Euro) Since Give's statement on the trade talks, the pound has dropped 9 cents to 1.12

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    The face to face talks with the EU over the future trade arrangements have apparently been cancelled because of the coronavirus. However, other means of continuing the dialogue such as video conferencing are being explored. Both sides will be presenting their recently published trade proposal plans. The UK is not seeking any form of bespoke agreement; it wants a Canada style FTA similar to those already in place with other third party countries like Canada, Japan and S.Korea. Barnier has prepared their proposals on the basis of the mandate he has received following talks among the 27 member states.

    A Senior EU diplomat has apparently said that the EU's position will be "take it or leave it". Good luck with that one. If they wish to be so stupid as to put that particular gun against Boris' head, then it is going to backfire badly and they will be told that the talks might as well end right there. The same thing if the French insist on having the same level of continued access to our coastal waters as a price to pay before trading arrangements commence.

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    So, while countries across the world actually do something about the disease we are facing, the EU "project" is disintegrating in front of our eyes. With the end of the Schengen concept and the pitiful ECB, in managing anything to do with the economy of Europe, we witness the return of the nation state. The euro will disappear with covid-19, when the major economies have to pay off the debts of Spain and Italy, and sanity will return.
    We have been lectured by politicians and economists for years and they are all now shown as the false prophets they are. Pumped up by their own self-inflated egos, they will have to rely on the sectors of our society that have been undervalued for far too long - our scientists and healthcare professionals. Forget religion, forget the casino bankers that didn't see this coming, our only saviours will be technology and community care, driven by national pride and shared values, not politics and profit.
    So, goodbye EU and good luck. We will join in the fight with you, but as I have posted many times on this thread, I am relieved the UK is in one of the first lifeboats, watching the EU Titanic disappear beneath the waves.

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    Rather funny how quick they are to shut up shop. Germany closing its land borders, I thought we were trying to do away with them. So much for an ever closer union.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

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    Clearly absolutely zero prospect of a deal by our deadline in the current circumstances (not that there was much anyway).

  48. #16248

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guided Missile View Post
    So, while countries across the world actually do something about the disease we are facing, the EU "project" is disintegrating in front of our eyes. With the end of the Schengen concept and the pitiful ECB, in managing anything to do with the economy of Europe, we witness the return of the nation state. The euro will disappear with covid-19, when the major economies have to pay off the debts of Spain and Italy, and sanity will return.
    We have been lectured by politicians and economists for years and they are all now shown as the false prophets they are. Pumped up by their own self-inflated egos, they will have to rely on the sectors of our society that have been undervalued for far too long - our scientists and healthcare professionals. Forget religion, forget the casino bankers that didn't see this coming, our only saviours will be technology and community care, driven by national pride and shared values, not politics and profit.
    So, goodbye EU and good luck. We will join in the fight with you, but as I have posted many times on this thread, I am relieved the UK is in one of the first lifeboats, watching the EU Titanic disappear beneath the waves.
    How’s the pound faring at this time of stress - surely investors must flocking to it relative to the doomed euro? I know you love your chats.

    The EU is not a federal state: health policy is almost exclusively determined by member states. The EU can only intervene to complement the actions of member states. Perhaps you want the EU to do more in in this area in which case I assume you want more power to it? Likewise the rules of Schengen aren’t absolute - they've always allowed for temporary réintroductions of border controls when there is a threat to public policy and/or internal security. All these years frothing and railing against the EU and you still don’t know the basics.
    Last edited by shurlock; 16-03-2020 at 09:05 AM.

  49. #16249

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    How’s the pound faring at this time of stress - surely investors must flocking to it relative to the doomed euro? I know you love your chats.

    The EU is not a federal state: health policy is almost exclusively determined by member states. The EU can only intervene to complement the actions of member states. Perhaps you want the EU to do more in in this area in which case I assume you want more power to it? Likewise the rules of Schengen aren’t absolute - they've always allowed for temporary réintroductions of border controls when there is a threat to public policy and/or internal security. All these years frothing and railing against the EU and you still don’t know the basics.
    Wait until the trade talks are postponed for a year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by badgerx16 View Post
    Wait until the trade talks are postponed for a year.
    We'll be out on 31st December on WTO if no FTA has been agreed with the EU before then. If they want to put to postpone trade talks beyond that, then that's up to them.

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