Brexit - Post Match Reaction

So trade talks start...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42368096

Trade talks which end with Britain accepting the same terms as Norway. What an effing waste of time, money, influence and credibility as a place to do business.

Very pleasant from the jihadists

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit

Very pleasant from the jihadists

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit

Very pleasant from the jihadists

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/15/anna-soubry-receives-messages-calling-for-her-to-be-hanged-as-a-traitor-brexit

Trade talks which end with Britain accepting the same terms as Norway. What an effing waste of time, money, influence and credibility as a place to do business.

As you know exactly how the trade talks are going to end, you could get your money down on the outcome now. Then you won't need to worry at all.

As you know exactly how the trade talks are going to end, you could get your money down on the outcome now. Then you won't need to worry at all.

Already did with Wes about a year ago. Its been obvious to anyone who is conscious since the whole charade started.

Already did with Wes about a year ago. Its been obvious to anyone who is conscious since the whole charade started.

Given that quite a few of the remain camp are predicting no deal and straight into WTO rules, I wouldn't spend your Norway winnings just yet.

Fuelled by the Daily Heil.

What is this strange jihadist obsession with heads -lynchings here, beheadings there. Odd bunch.

Already did with Wes about a year ago. Its been obvious to anyone who is conscious since the whole charade started.

I'm looking forward to a charity benefiting to the tune of £50 from you when we don't go down the Norway route.

I'm looking forward to a charity benefiting to the tune of £50 from you when we don't go down the Norway route.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-transition-deal-will-replicate-the-status-quo-hammond-says-11172610

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-transition-deal-will-replicate-the-status-quo-hammond-says-11172610

Are we talking about the transitional or the final deal?

Are we talking about the transitional or the final deal?

I cant remember what the exact words of the bet were (and cant be bothered to trawl back) but all the developments since the referendum have been a gradual row back from the promises made, incrementally managing expectations and setting the scene for Norway. Why? because WTO rules would have a major impact on the economy - and result in a big fall in living standards. Whilst a few Tory headbangers might be prepared to accept that its been clear from day 1 the majority of MPs wouldnt.

We will end up as Norway, with the same deal and rules. The EU will allow a little bit of a fig leaf and window dressing by the Government, enabling them to call it something else and claim some kind of victory and Brexit really did mean Brexit. But the reality will be clear and obvious.

Fuelled by the Daily Heil.

Now resulting in a stream of disgusting death and other threats to Grieve and Soubry from lunatics fuelled by this Mail and other rags' far right extremism. About time May called Paul Dacre into Downing St and tore a strip off them.

Very concerned about this country right now, Brexit really has given the far right a lot of hope. The only traitors here - and neither of my grandfathers who fought in WW2 - are the Daily Mail - and they never forgot it, refused to have it in their houses.

Now resulting in a stream of disgusting death and other threats to Grieve and Soubry from lunatics fuelled by this Mail and other rags' far right extremism. About time May called Paul Dacre into Downing St and tore a strip off them.

 

Very concerned about this country right now, Brexit really has given the far right a lot of hope. The only traitors here - and neither of my grandfathers who fought in WW2 - are the Daily Mail - and they never forgot it, refused to have it in their houses.

Was talking to an acquaintance of mine on Saturday who’s received numerous death threats. He can’t believe what’s happening to this country.

Now resulting in a stream of disgusting death and other threats to Grieve and Soubry from lunatics fuelled by this Mail and other rags' far right extremism. About time May called Paul Dacre into Downing St and tore a strip off them.

 

Very concerned about this country right now, Brexit really has given the far right a lot of hope. The only traitors here - and neither of my grandfathers who fought in WW2 - are the Daily Mail - and they never forgot it, refused to have it in their houses.

Was talking to an acquaintance of mine on Saturday who’s received numerous death threats. He can’t believe what’s happening to this country.

I'm looking forward to a charity benefiting to the tune of £50 from you when we don't go down the Norway route.

I'd take that bet but I just don't think you'd honour it. I wouldn't trust a Jew-hater's sympathiser as far as I could throw him.

Norway - or 'Norway plus' (the plus being membership of the CU) has been obvious for ages. It's just that you Jihadists are too dim to see it. There's no other way - other than remaining - to reach an outcome that doesn't tear huge chunks out of the British economy.

Please tell/show me, where I have ever used the term Muslim and I'll agree with you that I'm a racist scumbag. If not, apologise properly and I'll forgive you.

Ah, so it was the Seventh Day Adventist terrorists you had in mind?

This equivalence of terrorism and the migration crisis is seeping out of the sewers. It may have started with the fascists in Britain First, and been explicitly endorsed by Trump, but it also seems to have found (presumably unwitting) echo chambers in people like you. The numbers of people saying this stuff is truly disturbing - that it gets a pass and even tacit endorsement for others on here is just appalling (if thankfully inconsequential - no one could possibly take such halfwits seriously in real life).

If you break the linkage, the rage will subside, and you will return to your usual sunny self. Please take that in the spirit intended.

Ah, so it was the Seventh Day Adventist terrorists you had in mind?

I was thinking of terrorists posing as migrants. You were the one that had Muslim terrorists in mind.

Mate, you're a total nutjob...

I'd take that bet but I just don't think you'd honour it. I wouldn't trust a Jew-hater's sympathiser as far as I could throw him.

 

Norway - or 'Norway plus' (the plus being membership of the CU) has been obvious for ages. It's just that you Jihadists are too dim to see it. There's no other way - other than remaining - to reach an outcome that doesn't tear huge chunks out of the British economy.

Verbal during the Scottish referendum debate you stated that you wanted the Scots to vote leave yet argue so vociferously and sometimes eloquently that the UK were so wrong to vote leave? How can you square your two positions?

I was thinking of terrorists posing as migrants. You were the one that had Muslim terrorists in mind.

 

Mate, you're a total nutjob...

Never a truer word was spoken!

Saw this article on the Internet which makes sense to me

Theresa May is a prime minister who faces an enormous challenge to recast Britain’s relationship with Europe in the wake of the EU referendum vote. But the Brexit statement she gave to the House of Commons on Monday was based not on reality but on unreality. The picture of Britain and Europe that she painted for MPs following last week’s EU summit does not and will not exist. Mrs May’s Brexit Britain is a fantasy island.

The underlying fantasy is that Mrs May is the master of Britain’s fate in these negotiations. This is not true. It was the European Union, united, clear and principled in its approach, that shaped the first phase of Brexit talks, which came to an end last week in Brussels. It will be the same in phase two, which will begin shortly. The final deal about the future trade terms on which the UK leaves the EU will not be settled by March 2019. All that will be settled before that is what the EU in April called “an overall understanding on the framework for a future relationship”. As the EU then went on to say, any free trade agreement must “encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, tax, social, environmental and regulatory measures and practices”.

Mrs May probably gets this by now. But a significant minority of her cabinet and her party either doesn’t get it or is recklessly determined not to have it. That is particularly true of the part of the Conservative party that sees Brexit as a deregulatory opportunity, for whom “taking back control” means scrapping as many business costs – taxes, regulations, pension obligations, workplace rights and employment protections – as possible. Reports at the weekend suggested that Michael Gove is leading a cabinet push for the UK to abandon the terms of the EU working time directive – which among other things ensures a maximum 48-hour working week. This is the opposite kind of Britain to the one for which large numbers of working-class leavers voted in 2016. They wanted more security, as they saw it, not less. They did not vote for the freedom to work more hours for less pay and fewer rights. But this deregulated country is the one the Brexiter right is determined to give them.

A second fantasy is Mrs May’s insistence that the two-year transitional period that she is seeking is an “implementation” period. This is a trick. In order to calm leavers, Mrs May pretends the framework will be agreed before March 2019 and implemented after Brexit between 2019 and 2021. This is not true either. The negotiation to produce a real trade deal will take place after March 2019, not before. There will be nothing to implement in 2019. That is why there were reports at the weekend that Mrs May is being pressed to stay on until 2021 to prevent trade talks being ruined. But by then the UK will have left the EU and a general election will be upon us. There is no way whatever that this can be the “smooth and orderly” Brexit that Mrs May claims to be overseeing.

The third great fantasy is in many respects the most dangerous of them all. This was embodied in last week’s European council decision on phase one. As Mrs May put it on Monday, Britain is committed to uphold the Belfast/Good Friday agreement, to maintain the common travel area with Ireland and, crucially, to avoid a hard border in Ireland. But these goals – all massively desirable – are not compatible with the UK’s departure from the single market and customs union, to which Mrs May remains committed. Any future regulatory divergence between the UK and the EU – between the UK and Ireland – can only create a dangerous situation on the Northern Ireland border with the republic.

It is hard to know which is worse: that Mrs May knows this and does not mind such an outcome, or that she knows it and is pretending to parliament and the public that it is not a problem. Either way, this is the politics of impossibilism and of circle-squaring. Either way, British politics is crying out for truth not fantasy on Brexit. But Mrs May will not and cannot provide it.

As the EU then went on to say, any free trade agreement must “encompass safeguards against unfair competitive advantages through, inter alia, tax, social, environmental and regulatory measures and practices”.

No organisation knows more about unfair competitive advantages than the EU. Take the example of the CAP that benefits EU farmers and food producers, to the detriment of poor farmers in Africa, for instance.

• EU farmers are guaranteed a price for their sugar which is three times higher than the world price.
  
• In 2014 Africa —the home of coffee— earned just £1.5 billion from the crop. Yet Germany, a leading processor, earned nearly double that from coffee re-exports. The reason for this is that Africa is punished by the EU with a 7.5 per cent tariff charge on roasted coffee but non-decaffeinated green coffee is exempt. As a result, the bulk of Africa’s export to the EU is unroasted green coffee and German manufacturers reap the rewards.
  
• The charge on cocoa is even more debilitating as the EU tariff charge is a massive 30 per cent for processed cocoa products like chocolate bars or cocoa powder, and 60 per cent for some other refined products containing cocoa.
  

No organisation knows more about unfair competitive advantages than the EU. Take the example of the CAP that benefits EU farmers and food producers, to the detriment of poor farmers in Africa, for instance.

 

• EU farmers are guaranteed a price for their sugar which is three times higher than the world price.
  
• In 2014 Africa —the home of coffee— earned just £1.5 billion from the crop. Yet Germany, a leading processor, earned nearly double that from coffee re-exports. The reason for this is that Africa is punished by the EU with a 7.5 per cent tariff charge on roasted coffee but non-decaffeinated green coffee is exempt. As a result, the bulk of Africa’s export to the EU is unroasted green coffee and German manufacturers reap the rewards.
  
• The charge on cocoa is even more debilitating as the EU tariff charge is a massive 30 per cent for processed cocoa products like chocolate bars or cocoa powder, and 60 per cent for some other refined products containing cocoa.
  

Indeed, the most profitable part in the making of coffee is the processing of the beans, as opposed to the harvesting of them. Without the tariff, they could process in Africa, meaning we all would get cheaper coffee, whilst helping Africa work its way out of poverty. But **** em, as long as we're alright.

I'd take that bet but I just don't think you'd honour it. I wouldn't trust a Jew-hater's sympathiser as far as I could throw him.

 

Norway - or 'Norway plus' (the plus being membership of the CU) has been obvious for ages. It's just that you Jihadists are too dim to see it. There's no other way - other than remaining - to reach an outcome that doesn't tear huge chunks out of the British economy.

Show me where I said I hated Jews. You can't, as I don't. I have some considerable admiration for them. Arabs on the other hand, I have some disdain for. You can put that on record if you like.

But you show yourself up as being totally ridiculous where you say that somebody must be untrustworthy for holding an opinion on citizens of another nationality, whilst simultaneously expressing equally obnoxious opinions on your own fellow nationals by labelling the majority of them who voted a certain way in a referendum as thick.

You truly are a nasty piece of work. I expect that you have chickened out of taking the bet for no better reason than you know that you would lose it.

Let's be clear- lunatics from both the hard left and the hard right have been guilty of making disgusting threats against mps. It's one giant negative of brexit that anyone has felt it necessary to hurl vile slurs at one side or the other simply because of what they think is best for the country. Fair enough being critical if you're actually trying to be underhanded but it's absolutely not on getting personal with mps because they have a different opinion about hpw the country should be run. All sides need to learn that very simple message.

I do agree with you on this Hypo and as we saw from the dissection of the voting patterns, far left voted for Brexit in as great a volume as far right. Some of Momentum's behaviour has been as equally appalling. Our parents generation spent the early 1980s purging Marxist infilteration out of the UK and now they are in the mainstream which makes me sick. Would like to see far right and far left disappear to the irrelevance they were a few years ago. BNP were de-registered as a political party not long ago (ironically alleged misuse of EU monies) yet there they are now with a growing online presence seemingly in the millions and re-tweeted by another fellow extremist in the White House. Let's not even go there!

The EU needed to reform and re-purpose irrespective of Brexit anyway but concerned for the continent that the lunatics will overtake those efforts - look at Austria.

Shurlock - one of my relatives is from overseas and was told to 'go home' in rather cruder terms in their kids playground in front of their own and other kids by parents not long after the referendum and this is in the most affluent most middle class town you can imagine. I suspect we both despair at the level of discourse which the tabloids are fuelling.

I agree with much of that 1977- good post. One thing I will say is that I believe both trump and brexit are largely consequences of a certain type of people ignoring legitimate concerns of those in society with less opportunity to the point that they felt they had to make their voices heard in the manner that they did.

I don't have as much of a fear of right wing extremists as you do because I don't believe that the majority of people voting these type of people into power are actually racists or extremists themselves - rather they are the only ones articulating the frustration that the unheard are actually feeling. The EU exacerbates the situation because they don't actually want to listen to the people they supposedly rule over. What moderate political parties from all nations need to do is to listen to their population and find fair solutions or at least begin the conversations about how to tackle mass migration, radical Islam and giving the lowest in society a voice and you will see these extremist so called populist parties disappear.

My worry though is that the EU's answer to this disquiet and anger is to push for greater integration and to remove the power of nation states- I think if they carry on with that you will see more extremism within Europe as a response and I don't think that what anyone really wants but people will go to them if they are the only ones willing to address their concerns without calling them racist, sexist or xenophobic etc etc.

Verbal during the Scottish referendum debate you stated that you wanted the Scots to vote leave yet argue so vociferously and sometimes eloquently that the UK were so wrong to vote leave? How can you square your two positions?

What’s your point? Can't you be both in favour of radical devolution or in Scotland’s case independence and membership of the EU? Sturgeon manages it; Heseltine manages it. It’s really not that complicated pal.

I agree with much of that 1977- good post. One thing I will say is that I believe both trump and brexit are largely consequences of a certain type of people ignoring legitimate concerns of those in society with less opportunity to the point that they felt they had to make their voices heard in the manner that they did.

 

I don't have as much of a fear of right wing extremists as you do because I don't believe that the majority of people voting these type of people into power are actually racists or extremists themselves - rather they are the only ones articulating the frustration that the unheard are actually feeling. The EU exacerbates the situation because they don't actually want to listen to the people they supposedly rule over. What moderate political parties from all nations need to do is to listen to their population and find fair solutions or at least begin the conversations about how to tackle mass migration, radical Islam and giving the lowest in society a voice and you will see these extremist so called populist parties disappear.

 

My worry though is that the EU's answer to this disquiet and anger is to push for greater integration and to remove the power of nation states- I think if they carry on with that you will see more extremism within Europe as a response and I don't think that what anyone really wants but people will go to them if they are the only ones willing to address their concerns without calling them racist, sexist or xenophobic etc etc.

Agree with much of this Hypo. What will be interesting is how the government - and Labour given it's traditional support base in the north west and north east voted Brexit - balances the different priorities. The Conservatives and Labour are both in a difficult position - Labour parliamentary party is mainly remain but far left Eurosceptics leading it. Conservatives funding largely comes from pro-Remain big companies but voter base becoming further and further right and Leave. How will it keep some form of national unity if they try and go the Trump de-regulated offshore economy route? Good luck selling that in Barnsley or Sunderland. Would lead to Corbyn as PM and economic damage for generations piled on top if that which is likely to follow from Brexit. Scary stuff.

John Curtice, he of the famously accurate 2015 election result poll and the Paddy Ashdown hat-eating, has an interesting take on it: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/has-brexit-reshaped-british-politics/

What’s your point? Can't you be both in favour of radical devolution or in Scotland’s case independence and membership of the EU? Sturgeon manages it; Heseltine manages it. It’s really not that complicated pal.

Sturgeon is Scottish, Heseltine is British. Verbal is as far as I know not Scottish and based on the assumption that he is British it is quite a strange position to take given the harm that would have been done to the UK if a yes vote had carried. You can read into why he takes such an Anti British position how you like but I would bet he is not flying the Catalonia flag.

Last year, the IMF predicted:

A Brexit vote would only have negative economic consequences for the UK and could trigger a downward spiral of plummeting house prices and lower growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned. Christine Lagarde said the impact on the economy of leaving the EU ranged from "pretty bad" to "very, very bad", depending on the trade deals that Britain forged. Echoing Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, Ms Lagarde said the "serious disruption" to activity in the immediate aftermath could even throw Britain into recession. The IMF said next month's referendum posed the "largest risk" to the UK economy as it warned that a vote to leave would "precipitate a protracted period of heightened uncertainty". An "abrupt reaction to an exit vote" could entail "sharp drops in equity and house prices, increased borrowing costs for households and businesses" that would hit growth.

Today, the FTSE 100 finished up 7.6% at 7,687.77 compared to the last day of trading in 2016. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 ended 14.7% ahead at 20,726.26.

Happy New Year everyone!

Last year, the IMF predicted:

 

 

 

Today, the FTSE 100 finished up 7.6% at 7,687.77 compared to the last day of trading in 2016. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 ended 14.7% ahead at 20,726.26.

 

Happy New Year everyone!

An asset bubble does not indicate economic well-being. You seem not to understand how an economy works.

Last year, the IMF predicted:

 

 

 

Today, the FTSE 100 finished up 7.6% at 7,687.77 compared to the last day of trading in 2016. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 ended 14.7% ahead at 20,726.26.

 

Happy New Year everyone!

I remember after the vote to leave in June 2016, the FTSE 100 surged ahead.

Ah yes, said the wise men and sages, but it’s the FTSE 250 that really counts because that’s where the British companies tend to be.

The FTSE 100 has underperformed other major stockmarkets (not as if it particularly matter per Verbal's observation) - TICK

The UK savings ratio recently fell to its third-lowest level in 20 years - in other words, the British economy is being held up by consumer spending on the back of a rapid rise in debt - TICK

The UK economy has grown much more slowly than the rest of Europe since Brexit - growth in the euro area has been both broad and ubiquitous - something not seen for nearly two decades - TICK

Europe has become the main engine of global trade and demand - its contribution to the growth of global goods imports in 2016 and 2017 has been similar to that of China and the US combined - TICK

John Misselbrook is a simpleton - TICK TICK TICK.

Last year, the IMF predicted:

 

Today, the FTSE 100 finished up 7.6% at 7,687.77 compared to the last day of trading in 2016. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 ended 14.7% ahead at 20,726.26.

 

Happy New Year everyone!

Analysis of this news by the pinko liberals at the BBC ;

"By Joe Lynam, Business Correspondent

If ever we needed a reminder about the disconnect between our largest listed companies and Britain's 'real' economy , we got it today. UK GDP growth is well below the G7 average and real wages continue to fall.

Despite that, Britain's PLCs are doing very well thank you. That's because most of them earn the vast majority of their profits overseas and the global economy is enjoying is best period of sustained growth in a decade.

The better the world does, the more stuff UK quoted firms can sell. It helps, of course, that the pound has remained relatively weak since the referendum last year - meaning British based exporters can repatriate higher profits earned in stronger currencies. "

The better the world does, the more stuff UK quoted firms can sell. It helps, of course, that the pound has remained relatively weak since the referendum last year - meaning British based exporters can repatriate higher profits earned in stronger currencies.

You'd think the IMF would have known that before they made their totally inaccurate prediction before the referendum, wouldn't you?

Even I did on this very thread and I'm a moron, as many posters have pointed out...

Thank you for that, Private Frazer. I think you have no idea how a weak pound will enhance the value of UK stocks when the gamblers quit the scene and the long term value of UK plc is recognised. In the coming years the UK will be also recognised as the country that jumped into a lifeboat, not went down with the ship.

I didn't quite realise at the time, how much money the ECB was prepared to print to save Deutsche Bank and the other EU banks, though....

Inflation figures should be fun in the coming months.

£ was at 1.2 12 months ago and it's 1.35 now.

Over 12% strengthening in a year.

Inflation figures should be fun in the coming months.

 

£ was at 1.2 12 months ago and it's 1.35 now.

 

Over 12% strengthening in a year.

What's your point?

What's your point?

A new hobby for 'kippers' ?

"Volunteers could be used to guard some of the UK's borders, the Home Office has said.

The plans under consideration are for "Border Force Special Volunteers" to be used at small air and sea ports."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42527750

From today's Times:

The UK’s productivity rate has jumped by the greatest amount in six years, rebounding from a slump and giving a rare sign of hope for a problem that has plagued the economy since the financial crisis.

The FTSE 100 reached 7,723.67, a new intraday record, and the FTSE 250, which is dominated by more domestic-focused stocks, hit a new peak of 20,906.

The UK’s economy likely grew at a significantly faster pace last year than was forecast, after a closely watched survey showed the dominant services sector performing better than expected. Economists said the survey provided reassurance that the economy did not lose pace at the end of the year and meant that the UK was likely to match France’s economic performance for the year and exceed that of Italy or Japan.

Collez ça dans votre chatte, Lagarde....

Farage channelling his inner Glasgow.

Russian bid to influence Brexit vote detailed in new US Senate report

Russia’s attempts to influence British democracy and the potential vulnerability of parts of the UK political system to anti-democratic meddling during the EU referendum have been detailed in a report prepared by the US Senate.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/10/russian-influence-brexit-vote-detailed-us-senate-report

No way of really knowing how much effect the Russian attempts had but slightly disturbing stuff anyway.

Russian bid to influence Brexit vote detailed in new US Senate report

 

Russia’s attempts to influence British democracy and the potential vulnerability of parts of the UK political system to anti-democratic meddling during the EU referendum have been detailed in a report prepared by the US Senate.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/10/russian-influence-brexit-vote-detailed-us-senate-report

 

No way of really knowing how much effect the Russian attempts had but slightly disturbing stuff anyway.

https://www.ft.com/content/fbf8ab4c-e41d-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da

That's already been debunked

 

https://www.ft.com/content/fbf8ab4c-e41d-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da

In one day? Quick debunking.

Besides that's a pay wall link.

In one day? Quick debunking.

 

Besides that's a pay wall link.

The FT article, citing an Oxford study only looks at Russia's use of twitter whereas the US report suggests Russian involvement took multiple forms, including but not limited to Twitter. This claim may or may not be true but the FT article certainly doesn't debunk it.

More bad news here...

I guess that means we won't hear any more from the traitors. The games up lads and you lost. God save the Queen.

More bad news here...

 

I guess that means we won't hear any more from the traitors. The games up lads and you lost. God save the Queen.

Pretty odd evidence to marshal, Trident.

So the market reacts positively in the expectation of a soft Brexit - basically an acknowledgment that the further away a potential deal moves away from the type of Brexit swiveleyed loons like you want, the better it is for the £ and the country. No s**t, something some of us have known all along.

When God was handing out brains, you weren’t at the front of the queue, were you pal?