Brexit - Post Match Reaction

Still need to blame others rather than look in the mirror and face a few home truths.

 

The only reason there might be a second referendum

Is this just wishful thinking or do you think May is lying through her back teeth?

https://metro.co.uk/2018/07/16/will-no-second-brexit-referendum-circumstances-says-theresa-may-7721559/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-secondvote/there-will-be-no-second-brexit-referendum-says-pm-mays-spokesman-idUSKBN1K618F

Is this just wishful thinking or do you think May is lying through her back teeth?

 

https://metro.co.uk/2018/07/16/will-no-second-brexit-referendum-circumstances-says-theresa-may-7721559/

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-secondvote/there-will-be-no-second-brexit-referendum-says-pm-mays-spokesman-idUSKBN1K618F

I agree with May; there won't be a re-run of the first referendum (aka "second referendum"). However, I fully expect there to be a first referendum on the outcome of the 'negotiations'. Semantics? Maybe. But semantics is the tool of choice for politicians when it comes to avoiding "lying".

Much the same as there wont be a General Election, until such time as it suits her single objective of what is best for the Tory Party, if she thinks a Referendum will improve hers and the nasty parties standing she will U turn in the blink of an eye.

It's become very clear in recent years that there is a distinct lack of quality and skills at the top of government - of all flavours.

If you ask idiots to represent you and negotiate anything important, don't be surprised when it turns into a total clusterfuc£.

There are people currently shaping our future, who I wouldn't trust to sit the correct way on a toilet.

Much the same as there wont be a General Election, until such time as it suits her single objective of what is best for the Tory Party, if she thinks a Referendum will improve hers and the nasty parties standing she will U turn in the blink of an eye.

Nasty party

LOL

It's become very clear in recent years that there is a distinct lack of quality and skills at the top of government - of all flavours.

If you ask idiots to represent you and negotiate anything important, don't be surprised when it turns into a total clusterfuc£.

There are people currently shaping our future, who I wouldn't trust to sit the correct way on a toilet.

Too easy an explanation. Doesn’t matter who is Conservative prime minister, they would be trapped by the same existential forces - caught between the rock of delivering and owning a hard Brexit with all its fallout and the hard place of coming up with a practical solution which the loons would decry as a betrayal.

Certainly there are things that May could have done differently such as waiting to trigger article 50 and not boxing herself in with her Lancaster House speech -striking proof that listening to the headbangers gets you nowhere in the real world. But it would not have changed the basic contours of the situation in which May finds herself.

Is this just wishful thinking or do you think May is lying through her back teeth?

 

https://metro.co.uk/2018/07/16/will-no-second-brexit-referendum-circumstances-says-theresa-may-7721559/

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-secondvote/there-will-be-no-second-brexit-referendum-says-pm-mays-spokesman-idUSKBN1K618F

Am sure she means it - to suggest otherwise would be an an admission that she’s thrown in the towel and her painstakingly built Chequers compromise is dead. But given there’s little parliamentary support for her proposal and even less support for a no-deal hard Brexit while the Labour Party and Parliament are too divided to offer an alternative; it seems increasingly that the only way to break this impasse is to hand things back to the people.

given there’s little parliamentary support for her proposal and even less support for a no-deal hard Brexit while the Labour Party and Parliament are too divided to offer an alternative; it seems increasingly that the only way to break this impasse is to hand things back to the people.

Exactly. The majority of MPs dont want to leave the EU at all, let alone leave with no deal - but they're worried about being hammered by voters who would see it as a betrayal of the 'peoples democracy'. The only way they can square the circle is a second referendum, described, as Trousers said, as a first referendum on the deal (even though remain will inevitably come into the mix somewhere)

I think that what people may be missing, if you allow me to point it out, is the way the 2016 referendum played out by constituency. In a world where all MP's worry about is hanging on to their job and principles are well down the list of priorities, the below data sums it up for me:

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TR]

[TD]Party[/TD]

[TD]Remain[/TD]

[TD]Leave[/TD]

[TD]Remain %[/TD]

[TD]Leave %[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Conservative Party[/TD]

[TD]80[/TD]

[TD]247[/TD]

[TD]26[/TD]

[TD]74[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Democratic Unionist Party[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]25[/TD]

[TD]75[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Green Party[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Independent[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Labour Party[/TD]

[TD]84[/TD]

[TD]148[/TD]

[TD]36[/TD]

[TD]64[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Liberal Democrats[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]75[/TD]

[TD]25[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Plaid Cymru[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]67[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Scottish National Party[/TD]

[TD]55[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]98[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Sinn Féin[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Social Democratic and Labour Party[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Speaker[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Ulster Unionist Party[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]242[/TD]

[TD]406[/TD]

[TD]37[/TD]

[TD]63[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

So, there will be no move to ****** off the leavers, by either the Labour or Conservative Parties. They both know if they fail to respect that particular voter, there would be carnage at a GE. Of course, if you have never been voted into office like Adonis, or have left government, like Blair, Clegg, Kinnock, et al, it is all about populism. As far as MP's are concerned, they are sh! tting one...

I think that what people may be missing, if you allow me to point it out, is the way the 2016 referendum played out by constituency. In a world where all MP's worry about is hanging on to their job and principles are well down the list of priorities, the below data sums it up for me:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TR]

[TD]Party[/TD]

[TD]Remain[/TD]

[TD]Leave[/TD]

[TD]Remain %[/TD]

[TD]Leave %[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Conservative Party[/TD]

[TD]80[/TD]

[TD]247[/TD]

[TD]26[/TD]

[TD]74[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Democratic Unionist Party[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]25[/TD]

[TD]75[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Green Party[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Independent[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Labour Party[/TD]

[TD]84[/TD]

[TD]148[/TD]

[TD]36[/TD]

[TD]64[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Liberal Democrats[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]75[/TD]

[TD]25[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Plaid Cymru[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]67[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Scottish National Party[/TD]

[TD]55[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]98[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Sinn Féin[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Social Democratic and Labour Party[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Speaker[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Ulster Unionist Party[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]242[/TD]

[TD]406[/TD]

[TD]37[/TD]

[TD]63[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

 

So, there will be no move to ****** off the leavers, by either the Labour or Conservative Parties. They both know if they fail to respect that particular voter, there would be carnage at a GE. Of course, if you have never been voted into office like Adonis, or have left government, like Blair, Clegg, Kinnock, et al, it is all about populism. As far as MP's are concerned, they are sh! tting one...

Where did that data come from ??

Where did that data come from ??

Or, in other words, horsesh it.

So JJ can not only read the future but also peoples minds too. He knows exactly what kind of Brexit 17.4 million people voted for. Sorry to break it to him but many leavers don't support the no deal hard Brexit at any cost that loons like him and Lord D fantasise over - thus some evidence suggests that 20% of leavers favour remaining in the single market.

It's also why Parliament came very close to passing an amendment that would have seen the UK stay in the Customs Union in the event of a no deal. Expect more parliamentary activism if negotiations with the EU continue to deteriorate.

As usual JJ's done his homework and really got to grip with the issues. Good lad.

I think that what people may be missing, if you allow me to point it out, is the way the 2016 referendum played out by constituency. In a world where all MP's worry about is hanging on to their job and principles are well down the list of priorities, the below data sums it up for me:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TR]

[TD]Party[/TD]

[TD]Remain[/TD]

[TD]Leave[/TD]

[TD]Remain %[/TD]

[TD]Leave %[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Conservative Party[/TD]

[TD]80[/TD]

[TD]247[/TD]

[TD]26[/TD]

[TD]74[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Democratic Unionist Party[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]25[/TD]

[TD]75[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Green Party[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Independent[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Labour Party[/TD]

[TD]84[/TD]

[TD]148[/TD]

[TD]36[/TD]

[TD]64[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Liberal Democrats[/TD]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]75[/TD]

[TD]25[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Plaid Cymru[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]67[/TD]

[TD]33[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Scottish National Party[/TD]

[TD]55[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]98[/TD]

[TD]2[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Sinn Féin[/TD]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Social Democratic and Labour Party[/TD]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Speaker[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[TD]100[/TD]

[TD]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Ulster Unionist Party[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[TD]50[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Total[/TD]

[TD]242[/TD]

[TD]406[/TD]

[TD]37[/TD]

[TD]63[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

 

So, there will be no move to ****** off the leavers, by either the Labour or Conservative Parties. They both know if they fail to respect that particular voter, there would be carnage at a GE. Of course, if you have never been voted into office like Adonis, or have left government, like Blair, Clegg, Kinnock, et al, it is all about populism. As far as MP's are concerned, they are sh! tting one...

Results by constituency

The EU referendum vote was not counted by parliamentary constituencies except for Northern Ireland. However a number of Local Councils and Districts have released the referendum results by electoral ward or constituency. Moreover, several constituency boundaries are co-terminous with their local government district. For the remaining constituencies, the above data used was sourced from Chris Hanretty, a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, who estimated through a demographic model the 'Leave' and 'Remain' votes in each constituency. He urges caution in the interpretation of the data as it may not be completely reliable and has a margin of error, not unlike all of the other surveys carried out at the time. Guided Missile predicted the leave vote on this site, unlike the rapidly melting snowflakes, who are still grasping at straws.

I saw a newborn baby with wild wolves all around it

I saw a highway of diamonds with nobody on it

I saw a black branch with blood that kept drippin'

I saw a room full of men with their hammers a-bleedin'

I saw a white ladder all covered with water

I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken

I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children

And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard

And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall

It’s pretty much accepted by most commentators that Leave would form a FPTP majority, and a pretty massive one at that. Remain racked up loads of votes in London & other big cities. However it’s all pretty irrelevant because it wasn’t a FPTP vote. When it’s a binary choice there’s no tactical voting, so it’s pretty pointless comparing.

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You say you got a real solution

Well, you know

We'd all love to see the plan

You ask me for a contribution

Well, you know

We're doing what we can

But if you want money for people with minds that hate

All I can tell is brother you have to wait

Don't you know it's gonna be

All right, all right, all right

You say you'll change the constitution

Well, you know

We all want to change your head

You tell me it's the institution

Well, you know

You better free you mind instead

But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao

You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow

Don't you know it's gonna be

All right, all right, all right

You say you got a real solution

Well, you know

We'd all love to see the plan

You ask me for a contribution

Well, you know

We're doing what we can

But if you want money for people with minds that hate

All I can tell is brother you have to wait

Don't you know it's gonna be

All right, all right, all right

You say you'll change the constitution

Well, you know

We all want to change your head

You tell me it's the institution

Well, you know

You better free you mind instead

But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao

You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow

Don't you know it's gonna be

All right, all right, all right

When I am King, you will be first against the wall,

with your opinion which is of no consequence at all.

I don't know about all of you but I am feeling very reassured that the Government are busy stockpiling food, medicine etc if we leave with no deal.

In the space of two years we have gone from "£350million extra for the NHS" to "Don't worry we won't let you starve!".

I look forward to the Ministry of Food pamphlets on the best Spam recipes.

I don't know about all of you but I am feeling very reassured that the Government are busy stockpiling food, medicine etc if we leave with no deal.

 

In the space of two years we have gone from "£350million extra for the NHS" to "Don't worry we won't let you starve!".

 

I look forward to the Ministry of Food pamphlets on the best Spam recipes.

In fairness, it has never been Government policy that Brexit would provide a huge bounty, although certain individuals within the government may have indicated that. Government is now dealing with the hand it was dealt.

So it's a bit of a non-sequitur. And I actually am reassured that there is at least a level of proper contingency planning going on.

I repeat my longstanding view that before anything was done to implement Article 50 we should have had a general election with parties standing on a clear manifesto of what their Brexit position was. Instead we got the Tories proceeding with a new leader and a load of infighting (which Labour probably also would have had) and holding a snap election when the Article 50 horse had already bolted.

I agree the Government, whether it was Cameron or May have tended to suggest slightly more realism that the likes of Rees-Mogg, Boris and Farage. In fact I am yet to see any suggestions or solutions from any of the leading Leave campaigners - rather they simply say "no, that isn't what the people voted for!".

However let's be honest here, the whole situation is becoming more and more of a farce each day. Wait for the announcements regarding fuel stockpiles next.

This is just out-and-out fabulous. A Tory MEP - a distinctly un-self-aware Brexit Jihadist - has been given space in the Torygraph to propose an update of the Treason Act.

It is about time we brought the Treason Act up to date and made it apply to those seeking to destroy or undermine the British state. That means extreme jihadis. It also means those in future actively working undemocratically against U.K. through extreme EU loyalty.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1022044869081083905

Entertainingly, the Jihadists are really losing their minds over their own failures to implement Brexit, and are descending into a level of bobble-headed, lock-em-all-up extremism no one could possibly have imagined before 23 June 2016.

In fairness, it has never been Government policy that Brexit would provide a huge bounty, although certain individuals within the government may have indicated that. Government is now dealing with the hand it was dealt.

 

So it's a bit of a non-sequitur. And I actually am reassured that there is at least a level of proper contingency planning going on.

 

I repeat my longstanding view that before anything was done to implement Article 50 we should have had a general election with parties standing on a clear manifesto of what their Brexit position was. Instead we got the Tories proceeding with a new leader and a load of infighting (which Labour probably also would have had) and holding a snap election when the Article 50 horse had already bolted.

I'm sorry but it was a the Conservatives who decided to hold the referendum, it was by far mostly conservative MPs who campaigned for Brexit, the Conservative Boris who probably won it for them and it is the Conservatives implementing it. They should take full responsibility for whatever happens.

I agree that there should have been a general election before article 50, and all parties should actually be honest about where they stand not pretend to be in favour because of the referendum result. Problem is both parties are scared of losing votes to UKIP.

I would be in favour of a second referendum but only if the EU budge on the free movement issue because the one thing we can be sure of is that the people voted to get out the EU in it's current form. Staying in the EU but having some control is obviously the best solution. It is surely the right of any country to control it's borders, I fail to see why there cannot be an EU where every country can have that right.

This is just out-and-out fabulous. A Tory MEP - a distinctly un-self-aware Brexit Jihadist - has been given space in the Torygraph to propose an update of the Treason Act.

 

 

 

 

Entertainingly, the Jihadists are really losing their minds over their own failures to implement Brexit, and are descending into a level of bobble-headed, lock-em-all-up extremism no one could possibly have imagined before 23 June 2016.

The stream of replies to his tweet makes interesting reading, my favourite response is this one

Mind you, GM might agree with his proposal, given his labelling of anti-Brexiteers as 'traitors'.

For any waverers who think that the label 'jihadists' is invalid for Brexiteer extremists who advocate a 'no deal' scenario, here's a devastating account of what that 'no deal' will actually look like, from the first days after its imposition, to the following weeks and months.

Note that these are not predictions in the normal sense of the word. They are a straightforward account of what happens when you apply the rules - or lack of them - implicit in the 'no deal' fantasy.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like

For any waverers who think that the label 'jihadists' is invalid for Brexiteer extremists who advocate a 'no deal' scenario, here's a devastating account of what that 'no deal' will actually look like, from the first days after its imposition, to the following weeks and months.

 

Note that these are not predictions in the normal sense of the word. They are a straightforward account of what happens when you apply the rules - or lack of them - implicit in the 'no deal' fantasy.

 

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like

Doubtless JJ and Ringo (aka Lord Duckhunter) will dismiss it as project fear.

Doubtless JJ and Ringo (aka Lord Duckhunter) will dismiss it as project fear.

Or they'll do that weird ad hominem thing. Or look at the list of specialist advisors at the end of article and rage against 'experts'. Or say nobody voted Leave to be better off. Or list 'traitors' who've betrayed the shining glory of Brexit.

Anything but address the detail of the arguments themselves.

There. A prediction.

Doubtless JJ and Ringo (aka Lord Duckhunter) will dismiss it as project fear.

 

I would be in favour of a second referendum.

LOLZ.

LOLZ.

PMSL MEGA LOLZ

PMSL MEGA LOLZ

Would you vote this time pal?

Doubtless JJ and Ringo (aka Lord Duckhunter) will dismiss it as project fear.

"F()ck veterinary inspections and food standards." ?

I love Ian Dunt.

I went to school with him. FACT.

"F()ck veterinary inspections and food standards." ?

F(u)ck food.

 

I would be in favour of a second referendum .

I reckon all here would agree that another vote on this, no matter what the question is or the detail, it would be absolute carnage. Probably on a scale we have never seen before!

On a date that Romans historically settled their debts, it seems to be, yet again, a time for political and economic upheaval. This time, it will be the EU, not the Roman empire that will be affected. You see, no amount of cheap credit and an artificially strong currency will hide the systemic problems affecting the Italian economy. Italy could be heading into deep political crisis after voters go to the polls on March 4. Italy’s la dolce vita is at stake. The supposed ‘good life’ which the Italian economy has enjoyed since the European Central Bank slashed rates down to zero in 2012 and flooded the market with cheap credit, could come to an untimely end. Italian investors could be heading into a bloodbath, leaving the euro facing another existential crisis. Of course, the country is no stranger to political instability. It has changed governments 65 times since the second world war.

 

The betting is that there will be a lurch to the right, particularly amongst younger voters, who have the opposite view to our pampered and spoilt youth, with regard to the benefits of belonging to the EU. At least one-third of young Italians under the age of 25 are out of work and unsurprisingly they have a deep distrust of their government and establishment parties. Right now, the populist Five Star Movement has a slight lead in the polls and if they set up a coalition with the Northern League, it could spell curtains for the euro. Their leader Matteo Salvini has even gone so far as to call the euro a ‘German currency’ which has damaged Italy’s economy, arguing the case to abandon the euro altogether. Forgetting the elections in Italy in March, who seriously thinks that the Euro will survive for long, when the debts of southern Europe become unsustainable? Alan Greenspan, the former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, back in February didn't. He believes the Euro will collapse and the ECB Mario Draghi should come clean on the state of the Eurozone economy. "Northern Europe has, in effect, been funding the deficits of the South; that cannot continue indefinitely. The Eurozone is not working,” says Greenspan. "Brexit is not the end of the set of problems, which I always thought were going to start with the euro because the euro is a very serious problem."

"Italy’s deputy prime minister today accuses the European Union of trying to “swindle” Britain out of the Brexit that the public voted for.

In an exclusive interview with The Sunday Times, Matteo Salvini urges Theresa May to adopt a tougher stance in her Brexit negotiations with the EU, saying: “My experience in the European parliament tells me you either impose yourself or they swindle you.” The far-right interior minister, a former MEP and considered Italy’s most powerful politician, says May should be prepared to walk away without a deal: “Because on some principles there is no need to be flexible and you should not go backwards.” He also accuses the EU of trying to punish the UK for voting to leave the bloc: “There is no objectivity or good faith from the European side.” The leader of the anti-immigrant League party made an extraordinary intervention as May dispatched members of her cabinet across Europe to sell her Chequers deal."

I like this guy and when we lead the charge out of the EU, Italy will follow, in a stampede with the rest...

"The far-right interior minister"

 

I like this guy.

I bet you do.

...when we lead the charge out of the EU, Italy will follow, in a stampede with the rest...

Will that prediction be as successful as the one you made about Deutsche Bank in post #8?

Will that prediction be as successful as the one you made about Deutsche Bank in post #8?

Like the prediction that Brexit was going to start a stampede out of the EU. 2017 was meant to be year when Wilders, Le Pen et al. were going to ride to power and ring the deathknell for the EU.

Not fear, but the truth of whats up the road for the City https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/deutsche-bank-shifts-half-clearing-from-london-to-frankfurt/ar-BBLdGZa?ocid=spartanntp

Project fear, fear, fear.

http://

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Talk about making a trade agreement molehill into a political mountain. My initial response to the leave vote, over two years ago:

Rejoin EFTA in the meantime, then. You should remember EFTA, Whitey. I still have the stamps. Here is the free trade agreements they have and none of it involves kowtowing to Brussels, only filling in an application form:

 

If anyone in the UK government has a better idea than this at the moment, I'm all ears. EFTA have already rolled out the welcome mat:

Dear Britain, there is life outside the EU

Iceland, Switzerland and Norway all enjoy the perks of the European market without the burden of the EU. So come on out - the water's lovely

By Thomas Aeschi and Guthlaugur Thor Thordarson

 

 

Is it possible to be part of a European market but not of a political union in Europe? Absolutely. Our countries are doing precisely that now. And you know something? It’s working pretty well.

We are Government MPs from the European countries who didn’t join the EU – those in the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). It’s been many years since any opinion poll showed a pro-EU majority in an EFTA nation. Iceland has formally withdrawn its application, and the Swiss pro-EU campaign has admitted defeat and closed down. As for Norway, the latest survey there showed 17.8 per cent in favour of joining, 70.5 per cent against.

Why do people prefer our deal to yours? Not because it’s perfect – nothing is perfect – but because it allows us to participate in the European market while retaining our self-government.

Of course, each of our states have struck slightly different deals with Brussels. Iceland is part of the European Economic Area, which brings it within some elements of EU jurisdiction, albeit almost entirely in economic fields; Switzerland relies instead on a series of bilateral treaties. Still, the broad picture is similar enough. We buy and sell freely within the European market. But we are outside the Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy, the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the rules on common EU citizenship, the harmonisation of criminal justice and other non-economic matters. We pay a contribution to the EU budget – but less than a third, in per capita terms, of what Britain does.

Critically, we are also outside the Common External Tariff. In other words, as well as trading freely with the EU, we can also sign bilateral treaties with non-EU states – something that Britain, as an EU member, can’t do. This is a real advantage in a world where Europe is the only continent that isn’t growing. For example, both our countries signed free trade agreements with China last year. Britain isn’t allowed to do so.

It’s true that our exporters must meet EU standard when they sell into the EU, just as they must meet Japanese standards when they sell to Japan. But, in most cases, we don’t have to apply those standards to non-EU exports. This becomes a greater advantage with every passing month, as the EU’s share of world GDP shrinks. The clue is in the name: European Free Trade Association. Free trade and national sovereignty turn out to make a pretty good combination. Income per head in EFTA countries is, on average, 56 per cent higher than in the EU. And both our countries export more to the EU, in proportionate terms, than Britain does.

Britain was once the leading EFTA state. It could be again. Come on in: the water’s lovely.

 

 

Thomas Aeschi is a Swiss MP; Guthlaugur Thor Thordarson is an Icelandic MP

Morning JJ, so you’re happy with free movement, ECJ jurisdiction, no regulatory autonomy, paying a substantial financial contribution - all things that Norway, Switzerland, Lichtenstein and Iceland have variously signed up to.

Good lad.

Talk about making a trade agreement molehill into a political mountain. My initial response to the leave vote, over two years ago:

 

 

 

If anyone in the UK government has a better idea than this at the moment, I'm all ears. EFTA have already rolled out the welcome mat:

All the analysis I’ve heard or read about a Swiss type arrangement claim it’s no go because the EU hate the deal they’ve got. They do not want countries going down that route.

The elephant in the room for any Norway deal is free movement. It’s the one area that nobody is in any doubt about, even fanatics like Adonis or Wollaston can’t claim people weren’t voting for that.

I had an interesting conversation with a Remain mate who works in the national press over a liquid lunch Sunday.

He reckons the EU & UK will fudge enough of the deal at the last minute so a transition period will kick in. During the transition they’ll work on a whole series of fudges around both the east west & north south Irish border. The EU will insist that any deal will have consequences if we have divergence from their rules, but future Tory leaders will accept those consequences once the DUP loses its influence in subsequent elections. The GFA already makes NI different from Great Britain. So his view is that provided it’s not too obvious, in approx 10 years time there will be sea border. He reckons this is the “moderate leavers “ ( his words not mine) plan. Just to get out, as they’ll be no turning back then, then fix. The fix being a soft sea border between Great Britain and NI. He claims the problem they’ve got is the ERG smell blood & would rather gamble than take this route.

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The elephant in the room for any Norway deal is free movement. It’s the one area that nobody is in any doubt about, even fanatics like Adonis or Wollaston can’t claim people weren’t voting for that.

...and you know, this is the thing I can't understand. I thought that free movement was restricted to the Schengen area. Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are not EU members, but belong to the Schengen area, so they can be travelled in the same way as the EU. The United Kingdom, Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia and Romania are EU countries but they are not in the Schengen agreement. Even more difficult to understand is that some of the countries in the Schengen area are restricting free movement (highlighted in bold):

Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

...so, surely all the UK do is join EFTA, do a Norway and then do an Austria, Denmark, France, Germany or Sweden and introduce border controls. Germany will soon have to have permanent border controls if Merkel is to survive and Italy won't be far behind, together with Hungary.

...and you know, this is the thing I can't understand. I thought that free movement was restricted to the Schengen area. Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are not EU members, but belong to the Schengen area, so they can be travelled in the same way as the EU. The United Kingdom, Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia and Romania are EU countries but they are not in the Schengen agreement. Even more difficult to understand is that some of the countries in the Schengen area are restricting free movement (highlighted in bold):

Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

...so, surely all the UK do is join EFTA, do a Norway and then do an Austria, Denmark, France, Germany or Sweden and introduce border controls. Germany will soon have to have permanent border controls if Merkel is to survive and Italy won't be far behind, together with Hungary.

Clueless.

...and you know, this is the thing I can't understand. I thought that free movement was restricted to the Schengen area. Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are not EU members, but belong to the Schengen area, so they can be travelled in the same way as the EU. The United Kingdom, Ireland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia and Romania are EU countries but they are not in the Schengen agreement. Even more difficult to understand is that some of the countries in the Schengen area are restricting free movement (highlighted in bold):

Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

...so, surely all the UK do is join EFTA, do a Norway and then do an Austria, Denmark, France, Germany or Sweden and introduce border controls. Germany will soon have to have permanent border controls if Merkel is to survive and Italy won't be far behind, together with Hungary.

Unfortunately you’ve done what some Remainers tried to do in the referendum debate which is confuse free movement with border controls. There are no border controls between Schengen Countries, but there are border controls between Schengen countries and The UK. Some Remainers tried to equate this to having control of our borders, whereas most people define control of our borders as deciding who can and can’t come in.

Free movement means we can check people’s passports but have to let EU citizens in to work & travel. Schengen means that EU citizens can move between Schengen countries without border checks. Although as you have correctly pointed out, some countries are suspending this regularly

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Unfortunately you’ve done what some Remainers tried to do in the referendum debate which is confuse free movement with border controls. There are no border controls between Schengen Countries, but there are border controls between Schengen countries and The UK. Some Remainers tried to equate this to having control of our borders, whereas most people define control of our borders as deciding who can and can’t come in.

 

Free movement means we can check people’s passports but have to let EU citizens in to work & travel. Schengen means that EU citizens can move between Schengen countries without border checks. Although as you have correctly pointed out, some countries are suspending this regularly

Austria, Denmark, France, Germany and Sweden have introduced border controls on the basis of "security" concerns. It won't be a temporary measure, take it from me.

Austria, Denmark, France, Germany and Sweden have introduced border controls on the basis of "security" concerns. It won't be a temporary measure, take it from me.

Maybe, but there will still be free movement of EU citizens.

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All the analysis I’ve heard or read about a Swiss type arrangement claim it’s no go because the EU hate the deal they’ve got. They do not want countries going down that route.

 

The elephant in the room for any Norway deal is free movement. It’s the one area that nobody is in any doubt about, even fanatics like Adonis or Wollaston can’t claim people weren’t voting for that.

 

I had an interesting conversation with a Remain mate who works in the national press over a liquid lunch Sunday.

 

He reckons the EU & UK will fudge enough of the deal at the last minute so a transition period will kick in. During the transition they’ll work on a whole series of fudges around both the east west & north south Irish border. The EU will insist that any deal will have consequences if we have divergence from their rules, but future Tory leaders will accept those consequences once the DUP loses its influence in subsequent elections. The GFA already makes NI different from Great Britain. So his view is that provided it’s not too obvious, in approx 10 years time there will be sea border. He reckons this is the “moderate leavers “ ( his words not mine) plan. Just to get out, as they’ll be no turning back then, then fix. The fix being a soft sea border between Great Britain and NI. He claims the problem they’ve got is the ERG smell blood & would rather gamble than take this route.

 

 

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I'm not convinced even that is true. As we have seen on this very page, too many people in the UK have no idea what the Eu's Free Movement Directive really is and get it mixed up with border controls, which is a completely unrelated issue.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/07/most-leave-voters-back-free-movement-you-just-have-explain-it

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/07/16/why-freedom-of-movement-may-be-a-lot-more-popular-than-you-t

"Free movement has become a loaded term in British political debate in a way that it has not in other European countries. Brits therefore approach the subject with significant preconceptions, mostly negative. This is why it is so easy to get skewed results if a poll does not give a real explanation of the term, links it to unrelated concepts (such as 'open borders' or refugees) or sets up a comparison."

Austria, Denmark, France, Germany and Sweden have introduced border controls on the basis of "security" concerns. It won't be a temporary measure, take it from me.

Maybe, but there will still be free movement of EU citizens.

 

 

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Well, well, well, John and Ringo singing from a different songsheet.

Unfortunately you’ve done what some Remainers tried to do in the referendum debate which is confuse free movement with border controls. There are no border controls between Schengen Countries, but there are border controls between Schengen countries and The UK. Some Remainers tried to equate this to having control of our borders, whereas most people define control of our borders as deciding who can and can’t come in.

Free movement means we can check people’s passports but have to let EU citizens in to work & travel. Schengen means that EU citizens can move between Schengen countries without border checks. Although as you have correctly pointed out, some countries are suspending this regularly

 

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In theory anyone can move between Schengen countries without border checks ... point is that the countries fully trust each other and going into the Schengen area is the point someone would be checked. (by definition anyway if they wanted to check only some people they'd have to check everyone ... in other words what the UK does).