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Guided Missile

Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum  

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  1. 1. Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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Former Tory minister Tim Loughton's analogy of The vicar's daughter's Brexit deal:

 

“It is like buying a house that you have only seen from the outside. You hand over the full asking price at the outset, upfront. You sign all the legal transaction documents without even agreeing on the fixtures, fittings and completion date, or indeed knowing whether the immigration status of your family allows you to live there. Only after that do you commission a survey, the results of which you do not share with your family despite eventually finding out that the neighbours have an unlimited right of way across your garden and unfettered access to your garden pond - and you have no indication of when you will be able to move in. Who in their right mind would agree to such a deal on buying a house, let alone on such an important issue as the future constitutional basis of our whole country?”

 

Most people would stay put in their current house even if the council tax is a tad high.

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Its unfortunate to see a grown man struggle so much.

 

Still, at least we've made a bit of progress today. Les has accepted that David Davis, a posterboy for headbangers like him, is a charlatan, an idiot and responsible for hoodwinking the public.

 

 

I'm not struggling at all. It seems to be you, UJ and Verbal who are the ones struggling to comprehend the English language. I don't see where I responded to your request for my opinion on David Davis. No doubt you will be happy to show me. I tire of your childish mind games, so it is pointless responding to your infantile jibes.

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I'm not struggling at all. It seems to be you, UJ and Verbal who are the ones struggling to comprehend the English language. I don't see where I responded to your request for my opinion on David Davis. No doubt you will be happy to show me. I tire of your childish mind games, so it is pointless responding to your infantile jibes.

 

Oh dear. Your idiocy and ignorance in a nutshell.

 

Les you do realise where Keir Starmer’s exact same benefits condition came from? The one that led you to unleash a load of vitriol?

 

David Davis originally coined it. All Starmer was doing was holding the government and Brexiters to their word.

 

If you’re going to attack anyone pal, it’s the charlatans that pulled your pants down :lol:

Edited by shurlock
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I'm not struggling at all. It seems to be you, UJ and Verbal who are the ones struggling to comprehend the English language. I don't see where I responded to your request for my opinion on David Davis. No doubt you will be happy to show me. I tire of your childish mind games, so it is pointless responding to your infantile jibes.

 

Mate, you are struggling a wee bit.

 

That's OK nowadays, though. It's OK to not be OK, man.

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I'm not struggling at all. It seems to be you, UJ and Verbal who are the ones struggling to comprehend the English language. I don't see where I responded to your request for my opinion on David Davis. No doubt you will be happy to show me. I tire of your childish mind games, so it is pointless responding to your infantile jibes.

 

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I have no doubt that Wes Tender is, as usual, 100% bang on in his analysis.

 

So it should only be a matter of time before Guided Missile clarifies his position vis-a-vis riots in the streets and piano wire. We now know from Wes that GM does not desire this outcome, he is not encouraging it or willing it on in any way. GM is a dispassionate observer predicting what might happen in his humble opinion. He is not condoning, not desiring, definitely does not want any rioting to happen whatsoever. I mean, that's really clear when you read GM's post back, as Wes encourages us to.

 

Me and Wes are definitely right about that, aren't we Guided Missile?

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I have no doubt that Wes Tender is, as usual, 100% bang on in his analysis.

 

So it should only be a matter of time before Guided Missile clarifies his position vis-a-vis riots in the streets and piano wire. We now know from Wes that GM does not desire this outcome, he is not encouraging it or willing it on in any way. GM is a dispassionate observer predicting what might happen in his humble opinion. He is not condoning, not desiring, definitely does not want any rioting to happen whatsoever. I mean, that's really clear when you read GM's post back, as Wes encourages us to.

 

Me and Wes are definitely right about that, aren't we Guided Missile?

 

When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.

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We are opposed...by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence...on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice...its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumour is printed, no secret is revealed...

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We are opposed...by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence...on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice...its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumour is printed, no secret is revealed...

 

I see that you have already started drinking. Isn't it a bit early in the morning ??

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We are opposed...by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence...on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice...its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumour is printed, no secret is revealed...

 

This sounds a lot like Russia

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We are opposed...by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence...on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice...its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumour is printed, no secret is revealed...

 

Said John F Kennedy, talking about the Soviet empire. Passing off presidential speechwriting as your own work shows how awfully desperate you are to impress us. And it fails every time JJ. Best go back to imagining people who disagree with you strung up with piano wire.

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Should be required reading from today's Telegraph:

 

The government is selling a deal to “deliver Brexit” by effectively tying the UK to the EU as a subordinated state without a clear way and time to leave. The “only deal” in town has been duly propped up by the scenario analyses - not forecasts - of the Treasury and the Bank of England, helpfully showing that any form of Brexit means less prosperity but leaving without a deal brings real pauperisation for the UK. These claims are enthusiastically supported by the good and the beautiful such as Jean-Claude Trichet, former governor of the ECB, who appeared on television to warn that “no deal will be a disaster”; a rather bold prediction from the central banker, who singlehandedly helped aggravate the already brewing Euro crisis in July 2011 by raising interest rates to guard unthreatened price stability. The scenario analyses have been torn to shreds by many but one crucial aspect is missing. Models are by necessity simplifications of a complex reality and therefore hold some factors constant to be able to model the change of others. The government models hold the EU as a constant for the UK, but the EU is itself changing and merits a scenario analysis.

 

Last year, Remainers were holding up the “economic miracle” of the Eurozone as proof of what a huge mistake Brexit was. This year, Eurozone GDP growth has been lacklustre, with Germany contracting in the third quarter for the first time since 2015. France has had to modify its official forecast from the initial 1.9% to 1.7% this autumn, but some private forecasters go even lower. Italy’s forecast has also been cut back. Business sentiment is accordingly subdued. The Gfk Group Consumer Climate Study expects “German consumer climate to end the year with losses”. Purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have been declining for about a year. The European Commission’s economic sentiment index has been falling for 11 consecutive months.

 

Several factors are at play, such as German automakers’ emission standard woes, trade war fears, and Italy’s budget challenge. The weightiest reason, however, is that the ECB’s massive asset purchase programme of EUR 2.6 trillion had its effect fully deployed by last year and is now starting to taper off. Should the ECB end its quantitative easing program as announced earlier, this will have serious consequences because all the trillions could not tape over the eurozone’s structural flaws that guarantee future problems.

“The terrifying list of things that don’t work in the eurozone”, a title in French economic magazine Les Echos in 2016, has got even longer, producing increasing imbalances. There is an ever widening gap between the fiscal position of the North and the South. In the first quarter of 2018, the Eurozone general debt to GDP ratio was 86.8%, but this number hides a wide range of positions from the absurd 180.4% for Greece and 133.4% for Italy, to 62.9% for Germany and 55.2% for The Netherlands. France’s public debt ratio has sharply increased in the past decade. The Target 2 settlement system’s close to one trillion euro surplus in the favour of Germany reflects extreme structural imbalances. The crisis forced the EU to officially recognise this, so in 2011 it introduced the macroeconomic imbalance procedure ”to identify, prevent and address the emergence of potentially harmful macroeconomic imbalances”. However, these can’t be eliminated because the EU is not a country and surplus countries, primarily Germany, refuse to mutualise eurozone debt. Uniform economic rules enforced for very different economies produce further imbalances.

 

Thus, the EU is left with calls for ever more Europe, expert studies on reforms that increasingly resemble a wish list to Father Christmas and magical tricks such as Esbies, European safe bonds which are not eurobonds but “safe” instruments created by pooling sovereign member state bonds. The next crisis will find the eurozone with deep structural problems, record indebtedness, banks still burdened with legacy bad loans, the ECB short of tools to mitigate the effect, and a political viper’s nest of clashing interests and rebelling “flyover country”.

 

The EU has three options:

 

  1. The leadership understands that forced federalisation would be met with strong resistance. Surplus countries are unwilling to share their wealth, and all members refuse to give up complete sovereignty. The EU will continue to muddle through in a way that staunch remainer Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times called “managing its relative economic decline”.
  2. The optimal solution would be for leaders to draw the logical conclusion from the major disasters of the past years, give up the impossible dream of the superstate and start planning an alliance based on genuinely shared interests. Brexit would be the best opportunity to launch this exercise by negotiating in a constructive way instead of alienating a former member state and ally. Alas, this is the least likely outcome because the EU leadership is wedded to the abolition of the nation state, is used to ruling rather than governing, and the ruling classes have too much vested interest in the game.
  3. The third possibility is that the leadership will realise that the experiment has failed but refuse to abandon it. In a hopeless situation, sometimes the best defence is attack. Merkel has called on EU countries to “give up more sovereignty”, and on France to share its Security Council seat with the EU, in practice strengthening German dominance. Merkel and Macron have both called for a “real European army”. The migrant situation, terrorism and civil unrest à la française may be construed a justification of extraordinary measures. It is just one step from here to rely on a “European army” to help member states keep “law and order”.

Which scenario would the UK be part of?

Andrea Hossó is a member of Economists for Free Trade, a former trade negotiator and has worked in finance for more than 20 years

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Should be required reading from today's Telegraph:

 

 

Andrea Hossó is a member of Economists for Free Trade, a former trade negotiator and has worked in finance for more than 20 years

"A pro-Brexit campaign group with ties to a neoliberal transatlantic network and climate science denial is emerging as a potentially influential player pushing for environmental deregulation and a “no deal” scenario.

Economists for Free Trade (EFT), formerly known as Economists for Brexit, has made the news recently following its report claiming that a cliff edge Brexit and adoption of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would be “the very best” option for the UK.

The group claims to be a coalition of independent economists, but it has strong ties to Brexiteer Conservative MPs, right-leaning mainstream media and some well-known climate science deniers.

The group has long been pushing for a full break-up with the EU and has accused the Treasury and civil servants of misleading the public on the costs of Brexit and staying in the customs union.

The group’s findings that “no deal would be better than a bad deal” have contradicted most other studies on the issue and have been widely criticised as “doubly misleading”."

 

https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/08/09/economists-free-trade-meet-independent-experts-ties-climate-science-denial-pushing-no-deal-brexit

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And on top of that, we now find that Arron Banks' firm that was responsible for the biggest single political donation in history to Leave.EU has no address...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-46460194?__twitter_impression=true

 

It's pretty clear now that the mandate to leave is crumbling.

 

Don't worry there are Muslims in Christmas adverts to rage about instead.

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As we head ever closer to the default WTO trade position with the EU if we don't arrange a trade deal with them, I thought it timely to lift some of the gloom that you remoaners must be feeling increasingly as we edge ever closer to the 29th March 2019.

 

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

As the author asks, how is it that hardly none of this tremendously good news has managed to penetrate the major media outlets like the BBC, Sky, The FT, Economist, or the new Daily Mail? Perhaps the question is rhetorical and he already knows the reasons from his time at Radio 4, The European and the FT.

 

I look forward to Tuesday and the defeat of May's efforts to tie us into the EU as a vassal colony via her Hotel California Brexit.

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As we head ever closer to the default WTO trade position with the EU if we don't arrange a trade deal with them, I thought it timely to lift some of the gloom that you remoaners must be feeling increasingly as we edge ever closer to the 29th March 2019.

 

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

As the author asks, how is it that hardly none of this tremendously good news has managed to penetrate the major media outlets like the BBC, Sky, The FT, Economist, or the new Daily Mail? Perhaps the question is rhetorical and he already knows the reasons from his time at Radio 4, The European and the FT.

 

I look forward to Tuesday and the defeat of May's efforts to tie us into the EU as a vassal colony via her Hotel California Brexit.

 

They are mixing £ Pounds and $ Dollars. A schoolboy error.

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According to figures published by the UK Office of National Statistics in November – in the second calendar year following the EU referendum – exports to non-EU countries were £342 billion while exports to EU countries were £274 billion. In the same period, the growth in exports continued to outstrip the growth in imports, almost halving the UK’s trade deficit from £23.4 billion to £15.8 billion. Most exceptionally, since the referendum, exports have increased by £111 billion to £610 billion.

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They are mixing £ Pounds and $ Dollars. A schoolboy error.

 

Are they comparing figures in £s with figures in $s? As far as I can see, comparisons are between figures in the same currency throughout.

 

Figures provided in Dollars are probably because their source of supply was from the countries mentioned, like Kazakhstan, so for a direct comparison the figures from Austria were in dollars too. The relationship between the amounts wouldn't alter if they were converted to Euros or Pounds.

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As we head ever closer to the default WTO trade position with the EU if we don't arrange a trade deal with them, I thought it timely to lift some of the gloom that you remoaners must be feeling increasingly as we edge ever closer to the 29th March 2019.

 

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

As the author asks, how is it that hardly none of this tremendously good news has managed to penetrate the major media outlets like the BBC, Sky, The FT, Economist, or the new Daily Mail? Perhaps the question is rhetorical and he already knows the reasons from his time at Radio 4, The European and the FT.

 

I look forward to Tuesday and the defeat of May's efforts to tie us into the EU as a vassal colony via her Hotel California Brexit.

 

No rest for the wicked after yesterday's mauling, right pal?

 

Needless to say this is an amateurish piece, even by your undistinguished standards. It's simply dressing up what it alleges to be new data and insights in the old clothes and cliches of Global Britain and Empire 2.0.

 

A couple of quickies:

 

First its a fib that the numbers are from November, as if the author has his finger on the economic pulse (service trade figures are published much less regularly than goods figures, an immediate giveaway). The figures are from the Government's Pink Book published in July and widely discussed at the time.

 

Apart from sloppily mixing $/£ and percentages and levels, the author is ultimately trying to claim that the referendum has been a great boost to non-EU trade vis-a-vis a flagging EU. In fact, exports to the EU have actually grown as a share of total UK exports since the referendum. That is, exports to EU have grown faster than non-EU exports. In other words, the numbers directly contradict the author's central claim. Whoops...

 

What we have have left is the same hoary bluster about flogging sand to Saudi Arabia and Turkish Delight to Turkey (of course we can already do all that in the EU and a trade bloc has more leverage than any one county as Switzerland can attest).

 

Les, while I have visions of you in your Phileas Fogg finest selling PG Tips to the grateful citizens of Anxi or Puer, in reality, I suspect that you find taking the local bus a struggle. You certainly seem pretty clueless about global markets.

Edited by shurlock
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As we head ever closer to the default WTO trade position with the EU if we don't arrange a trade deal with them, I thought it timely to lift some of the gloom that you remoaners must be feeling increasingly as we edge ever closer to the 29th March 2019.

 

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

As the author asks, how is it that hardly none of this tremendously good news has managed to penetrate the major media outlets like the BBC, Sky, The FT, Economist, or the new Daily Mail? Perhaps the question is rhetorical and he already knows the reasons from his time at Radio 4, The European and the FT.

 

I look forward to Tuesday and the defeat of May's efforts to tie us into the EU as a vassal colony via her Hotel California Brexit.

 

So this proves what... being in the EU is no barrier to our global trade aspirations?

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As we head ever closer to the default WTO trade position with the EU if we don't arrange a trade deal with them, I thought it timely to lift some of the gloom that you remoaners must be feeling increasingly as we edge ever closer to the 29th March 2019.

 

I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but the EU is a dominant force in the WTO that you so treasure. (It'd also a WTO that's falling apart - did you know that?). And as you seem in your usual ignorance to be suggesting that the UK can walk away cost-free from its existing treaty obligations, it might be worth contemplating the sanctions that the EU, as a WTO member, can seek to apply to recoup the expenditure that the UK, as an EU member, signed up to.

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So instead of taking the information from somebody who catalogues tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK as his business, let's instead take the opinion of Shurlock that the bloke must be talking rubbish. No doubt he will contact him to insult his intelligence and call him some childish names. Any good news about business since we voted to leave the EU is bad news for you remoaners, isn't it? What a shame that employment levels have risen so much, that there hasn't been the predicted recession, the emergency budget, falls in house prices and inward investment that would be the immediate consequence of a vote to leave. Exports are healthy, plus as this guy says, SME are doing well.

 

As for Verbal, is the WTO falling apart as fast as the EU? And where did I say that we could walk away without paying anything to the EU? That depends on what sort of trade arrangement we enter into with them, as there is different legal interpretation of our obligations depending on the circumstances. I suspect that finer legal minds than his have pored over this. The WTO is falling apart on the one hand, but would be imposing sanctions on us the next.

 

Meanwhile the clock is taking towards our departure with no deal and the default WTO option.

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So instead of taking the information from somebody who catalogues tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK as his business, let's instead take the opinion of Shurlock that the bloke must be talking rubbish. No doubt he will contact him to insult his intelligence and call him some childish names. Any good news about business since we voted to leave the EU is bad news for you remoaners, isn't it? What a shame that employment levels have risen so much, that there hasn't been the predicted recession, the emergency budget, falls in house prices and inward investment that would be the immediate consequence of a vote to leave. Exports are healthy, plus as this guy says, SME are doing well.

 

As for Verbal, is the WTO falling apart as fast as the EU? And where did I say that we could walk away without paying anything to the EU? That depends on what sort of trade arrangement we enter into with them, as there is different legal interpretation of our obligations depending on the circumstances. I suspect that finer legal minds than his have pored over this. The WTO is falling apart on the one hand, but would be imposing sanctions on us the next.

 

Meanwhile the clock is taking towards our departure with no deal and the default WTO option.

 

No Les. Don't take my opinion, consult chapter 9 of the ONS Pink Book and the official Balance of Payments. It shows that during the period under discussion, UK exports to the EU grew (14%) more rapidly than exports to the non-EU (8%).

 

As for the author's other numbers, they are beyond dubious.

 

Echoing Whitey, when somebody mixes $ and £, it should start to ring alarm bells - not for the reasons you claim but because it suggests the author is using several, likely inconsistent data sources. This may be done innocently, if mistakenly or for less benign purposes. Thus the $ export figures he cites for Austria and Kazakhstan are directly refuted by the official £ numbers in the Pink Book. They show that exports to Austria are much larger than the author claims (£3.1bn vs $2.43bn) as is the difference in exports between Austria and Kazakhstan (£0.8bn vs $0.43bn).

 

Who to believe the ONS and the official balance of payments or some random bloke on brexitcentral citing unreferenced figures in $ :lol:

 

Do you ever question your sources when they are so obviously wrong in matters of fact? Or is the faith that strong pal?

Edited by shurlock
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As for Verbal, is the WTO falling apart as fast as the EU? And where did I say that we could walk away without paying anything to the EU? That depends on what sort of trade arrangement we enter into with them, as there is different legal interpretation of our obligations depending on the circumstances. I suspect that finer legal minds than his have pored over this. The WTO is falling apart on the one hand, but would be imposing sanctions on us the next.

 

Meanwhile the clock is taking towards our departure with no deal and the default WTO option.

 

At some stage before it's too late for you, you're going to have to let go of the fantasies that drive your waking life. One of them is that the EU is falling apart. It isn't. The WTO is, because the US - one of the three most powerful trading powers in the WTO, along with the EU and China - is dismantling the international court by refusing to nominate replacement judges as existing ones leave or retire. The court is now one judge away from not being able to operate. Once that happens, the international trading system goes into crisis, and anyone outside a trading bloc is going to feel one hell of a draft, because there'll be no authority to adjudicate disputes. Once that happens, Trump is hovering - he wants to destroy the WTO asap.

 

This is all beside the point though, because parliament is not going to give you what you want - your Jihadi dream of destroying the economy in order to rid it of immigrants is off the table.

 

Never mind, eh?

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"A pro-Brexit campaign group with ties to a neoliberal transatlantic network and climate science denial is emerging as a potentially influential player pushing for environmental deregulation and a “no deal” scenario.

Economists for Free Trade (EFT), formerly known as Economists for Brexit, has made the news recently following its report claiming that a cliff edge Brexit and adoption of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules would be “the very best” option for the UK.

The group claims to be a coalition of independent economists, but it has strong ties to Brexiteer Conservative MPs, right-leaning mainstream media and some well-known climate science deniers.

The group has long been pushing for a full break-up with the EU and has accused the Treasury and civil servants of misleading the public on the costs of Brexit and staying in the customs union.

The group’s findings that “no deal would be better than a bad deal” have contradicted most other studies on the issue and have been widely criticised as “doubly misleading”."

 

https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/08/09/economists-free-trade-meet-independent-experts-ties-climate-science-denial-pushing-no-deal-brexit

 

So basically a bunch of lying nut jobs - just like the NHS £350m and Banks’s pathetic hiding of what Leave.EU really is and climate change fruitcakes. Great. Let’s have a second referendum and out all of these headcases on a plane to join their hero, and Putin’s puppet, in America.

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We are opposed...by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covert means for expanding its sphere of influence...on infiltration instead of invasion, on subversion instead of elections, on intimidation instead of free choice...its preparations are concealed, not published. Its mistakes are buried, not headlined. Its dissenters are silenced, not praised. No expenditure is questioned, no rumour is printed, no secret is revealed...

 

Southampton Fc...

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One of the upsides of leaving was going to be regarding climate change. The U.K. was responsible for vetoing some of the more strict measures to combat climate change. Without the U.K., the eu could push these through, a positive for the planet in general.

 

With mays deal, not only would this still happen, but likely the U.K. would also have to follow the eu rules, further strengthening the fight against climate change.

 

So that’s nice.

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One of the upsides of leaving was going to be regarding climate change. The U.K. was responsible for vetoing some of the more strict measures to combat climate change. Without the U.K., the eu could push these through, a positive for the planet in general.

 

With mays deal, not only would this still happen, but likely the U.K. would also have to follow the eu rules, further strengthening the fight against climate change.

 

So that’s nice.

 

With all the Hot Air coming from Brexit the ozone is mullered, pal.

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Article think all sides can agree on, well apart from any May loyalists - are there any?

Slaughtered by Ian Dunt

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/07/week-in-review-all-may-s-faults-come-home-to-roost

 

Right on the nail about May. I fail to find any redeeming features in her. The Party should have ditched her following her totally incompetent and inept election campaign, where she failed to increase her majority against the most left wing leader of the Labour Party. But we won't have to wait long now for her to be gone.

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to Brexit - Post Match Reaction

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