How many points do we need to stay up?

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

Used this reckon teams could stay up with as little as 34.

Closest I can find:

 

 

"The Saints have their moments and those moments can be bewitching. Manolo Gabbiadini’s debut goal was one such, the £14m striker smashing home off the bar from an acute angle to give his side a 12th-minute lead. But in certain vital qualities – strength, aggression, determination – they are lacking and after a day of topsy-turvy results Puel is looking over his shoulder at the relegation zone."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/feb/04/southampton-west-ham-united-premier-league-match-report

 

 

I honestly don't believe we will be in a relegation fight, but I can understand that people aren't completely at ease.

I really don't think we'd be in danger if we hadn't lost our two best centre backs. I know Yoshida has improved but he's only 'ok' as an understudy to a better defender who can keep him focused and organise for him.

Show me any team in the league that wouldn't struggle with Yoshida and Stephens/Gardos as first choice?

 

 

I honestly don't believe we will be in a relegation fight, but I can understand that people aren't completely at ease.

This!

I think the issue is that folk look at only the points difference and think "blimey, 2 defeats and we're down with the rest". You have bear in mind that all those other teams would have to pass our points total and since they will have games against each other and against the top teams, the likelihood of all that happening is very small.

This was explained time and time again the last time we were in this sort of position, most got it, but some, even when we had only had 2 games left and it would have taken something like 12 results going against us (with goal difference being a factor in some) a few on here were still panicking.

I really don't think we'd be in danger if we hadn't lost our two best centre backs. I know Yoshida has improved but he's only 'ok' as an understudy to a better defender who can keep him focused and organise for him.

 

Show me any team in the league that wouldn't struggle with Yoshida and Stephens/Gardos as first choice?

TBF how many teams could handle losing a player of VVDs ability and not suffer? I think Yoshida has shown enough this season not to be a massive downgrade on Fonte but even if we had kept Fonte it wouldn't have made up for losing VVD.

TBF how many teams could handle losing a player of VVDs ability and not suffer? I think Yoshida has shown enough this season not to be a massive downgrade on Fonte but even if we had kept Fonte it wouldn't have made up for losing VVD.

This all reminds me of when Svennsson got crocked and Lundekvam was marshalling the back. Now, VVD is not seriously injured but a team can't get anywhere much without a decent defence. We created some ok chances but got mugged by West Ham. Just like versus West Brom. Just like back when we last got relegated from the prem. it's so competitive now that you need proper quality to avoid flirting with relegation. We are a soft touch and this needs addressing big time in the summer or we'll go. I think we'll be ok this time (just) but unless we make a few key signings then we'll go for sure. Especially if Virgil goes and let's face it, is almost certain to. There's still a very good team in there somewhere but we need a bit more luck, a few less injuries and a few minor adjustments in personnel and we'll look half decent again. Fingers crossed. We'll need, what? 38 points? 3 wins and a couple of draws. Then much more assertiveness in the transfer market. If not we're shafted next season as everyone else strengthens again.

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It's disappointing we are even in this position after the growth we have had in the last five years.

I think we will get a few wins on the trot and be safe.

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How many points do we need, an easy answer! 1 more than the bottom 3

Leicester won the League because of momentum not luck

 

Momentum is extremely powerful in football

Momentum is a completely false premise. Now confidence and belief... that'll make you work harder, run for longer and anticipate rather than react to situations. Oh, and luck, always a bunch of luck, whether deflections, refereeing decisions at key or favourable moments, or just the bounce of the ball.

This!

 

I think the issue is that folk look at only the points difference and think "blimey, 2 defeats and we're down with the rest". You have bear in mind that all those other teams would have to pass our points total and since they will have games against each other and against the top teams, the likelihood of all that happening is very small.

 

This was explained time and time again the last time we were in this sort of position, most got it, but some, even when we had only had 2 games left and it would have taken something like 12 results going against us (with goal difference being a factor in some) a few on here were still panicking.

Current likelihood of relegation is 4%, will rise to 9-10% if we lose this weekend. Still low. Sunderland are around the 60% mark at the moment.

How many points do we need, an easy answer! 1 more than the bottom 3

One less than that will do if we have a better goal difference.

One less than that will do if we have a better goal difference.

Debateable really. Those below us need more points than us, thus they have to win and draw more games. Winning improves your GD and losing makes it worse. So if we really reach the periphery of the bottom 3, which we certainly won't, we'll have no doubt worsened our GD in doing so.

Looking at the remaining fixtures and taking in current form....

 

Sun(a) - 0

Arse(h) - 0

Watford(a) - 1

ManU(h) - 0

Spurs(a) - 0

Bmth(h) - 3

Palace(h) - 3

WBA(a) - 0

Citeh(h) - 0

Chelsea(a) - 0

Hull(h) - 1

Pool(a) - 0

Boro(a) - 1

Stoke(h) - 1

 

10 points putting us on 37.

 

Looking a bit touch and go.

WOW!!!

You think we will only 1 2 games of remaining fixtures??

For 1 IMMEDIATE change we will beat Middlesbrough.

They are terrible

Sunderland on Saturday we want shooting if we do not score at least a point.

Hull home - LOL - again if we do not win this then we deserve to go down

Stoke last game - don't travel well.

Should be winning that one as well.

What's with all the relegation drama?

I think 37 points will keep you up - but we will be past that long before we get to the last game of the season.

WOW!!!

You think we will only 1 2 games of remaining fixtures??

For 1 IMMEDIATE change we will beat Middlesbrough.

They are terrible

 

Sunderland on Saturday we want shooting if we do not score at least a point.

Hull home - LOL - again if we do not win this then we deserve to go down

 

Stoke last game - don't travel well.

Should be winning that one as well.

 

What's with all the relegation drama?

I think 37 points will keep you up - but we will be past that long before we get to the last game of the season.

Will only WIN** 2 games

We could be on 37 points by 19th March. We probably won't be with Spurs away and Man U at home, but even writing off those two, 3 wins and a draw from Sunderland a, Watford a, Bournemouth and Palace at home doesn't seem hugely unlikely and that's the flapping done and dusted by 5th April with 7 matches and 6 weeks of the season to spare.

We could be on 37 points by 19th March. We probably won't be with Spurs away and Man U at home, but even writing off those two, 3 wins and a draw from Sunderland a, Watford a, Bournemouth and Palace at home doesn't seem hugely unlikely and that's the flapping done and dusted by 5th April with 7 matches and 6 weeks of the season to spare.

Seems pretty unlikely when you take into account the below....

Palace away - 0

Hull away - 0

Burnley away - 0

Swansea away - 0

Watford home - 1

Sunderland home - 1

West Ham home - 0

West Brom home - 0

Leicester away - 1

However if can stick a few results together starting on Saturday, then I agree we'll look pretty safe. Doesn't take a lot - just when you get into a slump its difficult to get out of it....!

Current likelihood of relegation is 4%, will rise to 9-10% if we lose this weekend. Still low. Sunderland are around the 60% mark at the moment.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

and according to this site.. getting to 36 points likely guarantees safety this season.

Predicting results, let alone a series of results is a mug's game. Just wait and see.

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40 points is the benchmark, still.

40 points is the benchmark, still.

On what is that based?

In the last 10 seasons, it was possible to stay up on the following amount of points (if you had a better goal difference)...

2015/16 - 37 points

2014/15 - 35 points

2013/14 - 33 points

2012/13 - 36 points

2011/12 - 36 points

2010/11 - 39 points

2009/10 - 30 points

2008/09 - 34 points

2007/08 - 36 points

2006/07 - 38 points

So in the last 10 seasons, 40 points hasn't been the benchmark in ANY of them!

Currently 3rd bottom has 20 points from 25 games, they aren't remotely on target for getting 40 points from 38 points. Even if current 3rd bottom Hull got 40 points, others down the bottom wouldn't be able to match that form.

40 points won't be the 17th to 18th dotted line in 2016/17.

So Dalek2003 you really need to stop with this 40 point benchmark nonsense! EVERY, SINGLE, F**KING YEAR! (do you not get bored of your nonsense? I have)

On what is that based?

 

In the last 10 seasons, it was possible to stay up on the following amount of points (if you had a better goal difference)...

 

2015/16 - 37 points

2014/15 - 35 points

2013/14 - 33 points

2012/13 - 36 points

2011/12 - 36 points

2010/11 - 39 points

2009/10 - 30 points

2008/09 - 34 points

2007/08 - 36 points

2006/07 - 38 points

 

So in the last 10 seasons, 40 points hasn't been the benchmark in ANY of them!

 

Currently 3rd bottom has 20 points from 25 games, they aren't remotely on target for getting 40 points from 38 points. Even if current 3rd bottom Hull got 40 points, others down the bottom wouldn't be able to match that form.

 

40 points won't be the 17th to 18th dotted line in 2016/17.

 

So Dalek2003 you really need to stop with this 40 point benchmark nonsense! EVERY, SINGLE, F**KING YEAR! (do you not get bored of your nonsense? I have)

Hang on,

40 points is seen by most people, including premier managers as the benchmark to aim for.

No need to get so tetchy.

West Ham went down with 42pts in 2002/3.

I don't know why this fabled 40pts ever gets mentioned.

So often 40 points will be much more than require but occasionally in a freak season may not be enough as West Ham found out. Doubt will ever happen again as Top 6 now more dominant.

On what is that based?

 

In the last 10 seasons, it was possible to stay up on the following amount of points (if you had a better goal difference)...

 

2015/16 - 37 points

2014/15 - 35 points

2013/14 - 33 points

2012/13 - 36 points

2011/12 - 36 points

2010/11 - 39 points

2009/10 - 30 points

2008/09 - 34 points

2007/08 - 36 points

2006/07 - 38 points

 

So in the last 10 seasons, 40 points hasn't been the benchmark in ANY of them!

 

Currently 3rd bottom has 20 points from 25 games, they aren't remotely on target for getting 40 points from 38 points. Even if current 3rd bottom Hull got 40 points, others down the bottom wouldn't be able to match that form.

 

40 points won't be the 17th to 18th dotted line in 2016/17.

 

So Dalek2003 you really need to stop with this 40 point benchmark nonsense! EVERY, SINGLE, F**KING YEAR! (do you not get bored of your nonsense? I have)

So 40pts has been enough to keep you safe in all of the last 10 years? Pretty good benchmark I would say. Unless we wanted a benchmark of what would get us relegated, but I guess no one wanted that!

West Ham went down with 42pts in 2002/3.

I don't know why this fabled 40pts ever gets mentioned.

 

So often 40 points will be much more than require but occasionally in a freak season may not be enough as West Ham found out. Doubt will ever happen again as Top 6 now more dominant.

40 points is a nice round number and the one that is commonly used to aim for because it normally means you are safe. On countless occasions fans will say over the magic 40 point mark etc.

As you say the Wham season was an exception, it could happen again, but not this season I don't think.

As has been pointed out, 40 points is almost always enough. In fact, a point a game is almost always enough.

At the moment, the bottom clubs are averaging less than a point a game. I'd guess 35 or 36 is enough this season.