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Thread: How many points do we need to stay up?

  1. Default How many points do we need to stay up?

    Let's be honest we are in trouble big time now. Not replacing Fonte is going to cost us the chance of a cup and has put us in a relegation battle. Even with VVD injury if we had signed a top Fonte replacement then we might have had a partner able to get a couple of good games out of Yoshida.

    The fact our defence is going to be leaking badly until VVD returns and we don't score goals means it's going to take us a very long time to get to the fabled 40 points but will that be enough?!

    Sunderland, Hull and Swansea are all on the up

    Saints, Palace, Bournemouth, Leicester, Middlesbrough and (Maybe)Watford are all playing terribly and will be dragged closer.

    I think Burnley will also run out of steam but should have enough to be ok.

    So I cant work out with such a poor quality of teams in the lower half of the table whether the points needed for safety will be low or high??
    Last edited by Bstokesaint; 05-02-2017 at 07:13 AM. Reason: Spelling

  2. #2

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    I think the thing that will save us by the skin of our teeth is that the safety line may be well below 40 points this season. 37/38.

  3. #3

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    A team that will survive is one that can win ugly or at least know that a draw away is a great result,
    We can't even do that.
    What worries me is our leaky defence can't defend on the one goal a game we score.

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    We could stay up with 30, we could go down with 39. As long as there are 3 teams below us at the end of the season we stay up. Any match against a team in the bottom 6 is a 'mustn't lose'.

  5. #5

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    More than I thought a few weeks ago before Hull and Swansea picked up. Hoping these new manger bounces end soon.

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    38 points MAY be enough for 17th
    40 deffo will be IMO

    ****ing tragic that we are now in that part of the league

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    Around 40 points as always. Teams below us have strengthened and addressed weaknesses.

    Looking to be a bun fight.

  8. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    38 points MAY be enough for 17th
    40 deffo will be IMO

    ****ing tragic that we are now in that part of the league
    Totally agree, this should have been such an easy mid table finish this year. It the management team have now made it very difficult

  9. #9

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    Don't have a particularly easy run in either....some huge games left starting Saturday. A massive four days when we play Palace and Bournemouth.

    Sunderland (A)
    Watford (A)
    Man Utd (H)
    Arsenal (H)
    Spurs (A)
    Bournemouth (H)
    Palace (H)

    West Brom (A)
    Man City (H)
    Chelsea (A)
    Hull (H)
    Liverpool (A)
    Middlesbrough (A)
    Stoke (H)

  10. #10

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    Looking at the remaining fixtures and taking in current form....

    Sun(a) - 0
    Arse(h) - 0
    Watford(a) - 1
    ManU(h) - 0
    Spurs(a) - 0
    Bmth(h) - 3
    Palace(h) - 3
    WBA(a) - 0
    Citeh(h) - 0
    Chelsea(a) - 0
    Hull(h) - 1
    Pool(a) - 0
    Boro(a) - 1
    Stoke(h) - 1

    10 points putting us on 37.

    Looking a bit touch and go.

  11. #11

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    When we went down in 2005, we had 18 points after 24 games and were in the bottom three, two less than Hull in 18th. Back then the form of the bottom Clubs was very patchy and continues to be so today, but it seems the bottom three now are more robust then we were back then. My guess is that 40 points will be necessary to stay up, but 37 will not be. Based on current form I think we are in for an exciting ride into the end of the season!!

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    The simple answer is far less than we'll actually get. People need to stop grannying about relegation.

  13. #13

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    we need to win four of the remaining games, we are fortunate that their are 6 teams below us who are 6 points or more behind us, they cant all have great runs to lift them out of trouble.
    The only problem i have is i cant for the life of me see where those four wins are coming from, three maybe but that would be really touch and go !
    Of course once we win a match the next one mentally looks easier and winnable, its when in a losing run like this you just cant see the next point let alone three !

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    I counted up 36. Not sure if that's enough.

  15. Default

    Looking at the form tables us and Palace are in deep trouble. Both of us have only won once and all other games in past 7 have been defeats. The lack of draws is worrying as the odd point here and there can be crucial. Hold on tight because it's going to be a bumpy ride to the end of the season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by saintant View Post
    Looking at the form tables us and Palace are in deep trouble. Both of us have only won once and all other games in past 7 have been defeats. The lack of draws is worrying as the odd point here and there can be crucial. Hold on tight because it's going to be a bumpy ride to the end of the season.
    Just like the 90's. We have been here before, exciting and shreds your nerves. I have been dreading this, but here we go.

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    In the last few seasons it would have needed 40, 37, 38, 34, 36, 38. No team has survived in the Premier League with less than 34 points, ( West Brom survived with 34 in 2004/2005 ), 2 teams have survived on 35, West Ham went down with 42 in 2002/2003. Overall, the average suggests 38 points is actually the magic number.

  18. #18

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    Weirdly, there is something really exciting about a relegation battle. Some of my greatest memories were the tense wins that kept us up. Not saying I want us in there, but makes for more excitement than mid-table mediocrity. Maybe that's just me.

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBizzier69 View Post
    Weirdly, there is something really exciting about a relegation battle. Some of my greatest memories were the tense wins that kept us up. Not saying I want us in there, but makes for more excitement than mid-table mediocrity. Maybe that's just me.
    Great feeling when you stay up, but its unnecessary excitement!

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBizzier69 View Post
    Weirdly, there is something really exciting about a relegation battle. Some of my greatest memories were the tense wins that kept us up. Not saying I want us in there, but makes for more excitement than mid-table mediocrity. Maybe that's just me.
    well we have had very little in terms of excitement in the league up to now so I can see where you are coming from

  21. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by LeBizzier69 View Post
    Weirdly, there is something really exciting about a relegation battle. Some of my greatest memories were the tense wins that kept us up. Not saying I want us in there, but makes for more excitement than mid-table mediocrity. Maybe that's just me.
    Strange but true, the emotion in the Northam the year Nigel Pearson kept us in the championship! The last game against Sheffield united was crazy!

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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/foo...o-stay-up.html

    Summary:

    43 guaranteed safety
    37 better than 50:50 chance of survival
    33 guaranteed relegation

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    Honestly think with Puel we're down.


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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBizzier69 View Post
    Weirdly, there is something really exciting about a relegation battle. Some of my greatest memories were the tense wins that kept us up. Not saying I want us in there, but makes for more excitement than mid-table mediocrity. Maybe that's just me.
    For people of a certain age, this is pretty much the norm anyway. Fasten tight people, enjoy the ride.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DT View Post
    Honestly think with Puel we're down.


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    Chin up son, chin up - it's only football.

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    Swansea lost and Leicester losing keeps them still 6 points away from us and our goal difference is worth a point although I think they play each other next week. Will we put Bertand on Defoe next week with Sam at left back, massive game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Micky View Post
    For people of a certain age, this is pretty much the norm anyway. Fasten tight people, enjoy the ride.

    Sent from my Hudl 2 using Tapatalk
    As I said, back to the 90's !

  28. Default

    I knew Leicester would have a poor season after last year, but they look so poor and 3 down now to united.

    We will stay up as there are some shockingly poor sides in thd Prem this season.

    Next season however

  29. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heisenberg View Post
    I knew Leicester would have a poor season after last year, but they look so poor and 3 down now to united.

    We will stay up as there are some shockingly poor sides in thd Prem this season.

    Next season however
    Man Utd are just papering over the cracks by winning 3-0 against Leicester

  30. #30

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    Maybe we can buy Vardy when Leicester go down

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    Quote Originally Posted by whelk View Post
    Maybe we can buy Vardy when Leicester go down
    Wouldn't want him, he had one great season, as did Leicester and now he and they look total bollorks. Same manager, nearly the same team but totally zapped. They got lucky and now they're proving that no matter who's the manager if you can't score you're in trouble.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Window Cleaner View Post
    Wouldn't want him, he had one great season, as did Leicester and now he and they look total bollorks. Same manager, nearly the same team but totally zapped. They got lucky and now they're proving that no matter who's the manager if you can't score you're in trouble.
    And look at Huth lumbering around like a prop forward at Twickenham....

  33. Default

    Leicester won the League because of momentum not luck

    Momentum is extremely powerful in football

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    Quote Originally Posted by adrian lord View Post
    And look at Huth lumbering around like a prop forward at Twickenham....
    But he was up there amongst the bee's bolloaks last season. If you have 2 strikers who score 20+ a season you can be crap as you like and they'll always get you through. Roy of the Rovers proved that week after week.Why Melchester could be down to 5 players and a dog but Roy would still complete his hat-trick in extra time.

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    I think we'll be fine- our seasons usually include a slow start, a strong push up to Christmas, a bit of a poor spell up to the end of winter, and then a strong finish.

    On evidence, by the time the League Cup final is out of the way (be it with happiness or frustration), I expect us to be in form again. Most relegation threatened clubs will have a slight dip in form around then before having an equally strong finish, so I can see us capitalizing on that.

    And remember our first season? It was the home results against the top 5, not the relegation 6-pointers that were crucial to our safety. We've been good against them this season too and with Chelsea running away I think their form will become a bit more inconsistent.

    We will be fine, whether Puel should stay is a different question. For me, winning the cup and staying in mid-table would not be enough, and he would leave on a high note.

  36. #36

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    I habitually count to 40. It was ingrained following just about every PL season in the 90s. I remember the year when we survived in favour of the late Alan Ball's Man City on goal difference (at least I think I remember it). Back then it was difficult to follow the PL in Canada. I had to find out that Saints had survived by looking at the stats section of the sports pages in the Edmonton Sun on Sunday morning.

    I would be shocked if we are relegated this season. We have a 6 point head start, and some very poor teams below us with their own morale, performance and injury issues. One or two of them will surge. They always do. We have winnable away games against Sunderland, Watford, WBA and Boro. We have winnable home games against Bournemouth, Hull, Palace and a Stoke team that will probably have nothing to play for on the last day.

    Yes it's a little more interesting than it should be thanks to a horrible run of results, key injuries, poor transfer decisions (not replacing Fonte) and I have lost a lot of confidence in Puel, but Barry Gabbiadini looks like he knows where the net is and surely the defending can only get better.

  37. Default

    For those that seriously think we are relegation fodder...
    Skybet have us at 66/1 to be relegated, BetVictor at 50/1 and a general 40/1 elsewhere.

    So for under a tenner you can get your season ticket for next year, if you really believe that.

  38. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by KK the 2nd View Post
    For those that seriously think we are relegation fodder...
    Skybet have us at 66/1 to be relegated, BetVictor at 50/1 and a general 40/1 elsewhere.

    So for under a tenner you can get your season ticket for next year, if you really believe that.
    Leicester are now again 5000/1 for the title if anyone wants a cheeky bet. (So are we, BTW.)

  39. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by KK the 2nd View Post
    For those that seriously think we are relegation fodder...
    Skybet have us at 66/1 to be relegated, BetVictor at 50/1 and a general 40/1 elsewhere.

    So for under a tenner you can get your season ticket for next year, if you really believe that.
    Stuck a tenner on us at 80/1 on skybet straight after Saturdays game. This will mean that it's got no chance of happening because I never win anything. So you can all thank me when we stay up

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    Honestly don't think we're bad enough to get relegated even if we do I find myself unbothered PL isn't all that anyway. If we end up back in league one I can enjoy us being the ones buying players instead of selling them 😄

    Plus I've always maintained I'd take finishing 17th if we won an actual trophy and I stick by that win the the final and the rest of the season is pretty much an irrelevance for me. If we don't win the cup at least a relegation dogfight would give the rest of the season some interest....
    Last edited by doddisalegend; 07-02-2017 at 09:16 AM.

  41. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cabrone View Post
    Looking at the remaining fixtures and taking in current form....

    Sun(a) - 0
    Arse(h) - 0
    Watford(a) - 1
    ManU(h) - 0
    Spurs(a) - 0
    Bmth(h) - 3
    Palace(h) - 3
    WBA(a) - 0
    Citeh(h) - 0
    Chelsea(a) - 0
    Hull(h) - 1
    Pool(a) - 0
    Boro(a) - 1
    Stoke(h) - 1

    10 points putting us on 37.

    Looking a bit touch and go.
    Pretty much the way I see it at the moment - and I'm not a pessimist (usually) - with the way we are playing. If we manage to tighten up at the back and Gabbiadini score a few more we must just sneak wins over Hull and Stoke (very possibly grasping at straws etc).

  42. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bstokesaint View Post
    Let's be honest we are in trouble big time now. Not replacing Fonte is going to cost us the chance of a cup and has put us in a relegation battle. Even with VVD injury if we had signed a top Fonte replacement then we might have had a partner able to get a couple of good games out of Yoshida.

    The fact our defence is going to be leaking badly until VVD returns and we don't score goals means it's going to take us a very long time to get to the fabled 40 points but will that be enough?!

    Sunderland, Hull and Swansea are all on the up

    Saints, Palace, Bournemouth, Leicester, Middlesbrough and (Maybe)Watford are all playing terribly and will be dragged closer.

    I think Burnley will also run out of steam but should have enough to be ok.

    So I cant work out with such a poor quality of teams in the lower half of the table whether the points needed for safety will be low or high??
    I think 40/41 will do it, we are a good team but missing key players and are low on form and confidence. I honestly think we have enough to stay up, I think we will finish 13/14th as once the cups out of the way the players can get back to playing without worrying about getting knocks during matches ruling them out or missing the Final (must be on the back of their minds)

    I'm not daft though and believe we should of strengthened defensively in Jan, even if it was loans for squad players as if Maya gets injured that leaves 1 CB in a very inexperienced (for the prem) Stephens.




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  43. Default

    Think the only positive we can take then is that it's not going to be a boring second half of the season!!

  44. Default

    Can anyone find a pundit or writer who even mentions us in a piece about the relegation fight? Anyone?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DuncanRG View Post
    Can anyone find a pundit or writer who even mentions us in a piece about the relegation fight? Anyone?
    It's because we aren't in one.

    3.3% chance.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

  46. Default

    Exactly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SaintTex View Post
    It's because we aren't in one.

    3.3% chance.

    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html
    And yet we'll get a few posts from people who say they've wagered some sum on Saints going down at long odds just to make them feel better if the impossible happens, they could give me the money really for all the return they'll get.

  48. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DuncanRG View Post
    Can anyone find a pundit or writer who even mentions us in a piece about the relegation fight? Anyone?
    Just being realistic. We don't score goals although hopefully we will get a few more now with our new striker but we will still be shipping goals until VVD comes back which will put us right in it

  49. #49

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    We should be able to manage a point a game average with the fixtures left. Should be enough and 5 to spare. Whether that's good enough for KL and Ralph to put the axe away is another story.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DuncanRG View Post
    Can anyone find a pundit or writer who even mentions us in a piece about the relegation fight? Anyone?
    Closest I can find:


    "The Saints have their moments and those moments can be bewitching. Manolo Gabbiadini’s debut goal was one such, the 14m striker smashing home off the bar from an acute angle to give his side a 12th-minute lead. But in certain vital qualities – strength, aggression, determination – they are lacking and after a day of topsy-turvy results Puel is looking over his shoulder at the relegation zone."

    https://www.theguardian.com/football...e-match-report


    I honestly don't believe we will be in a relegation fight, but I can understand that people aren't completely at ease.

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