Can we finish higher than eighth in the 2017-18 season?

I think it will be a tough ask for us to finish higher than eighth next season, even if Pellegrino has the desired effect. I am hopeful that we will see an improvement under Pellegrino - especially if we can keep our top players and maybe bring in a couple of extra players to further strengthen the squad/first team. Yet, that improvement may only be enough to close up some of the gap that opened up last season, rather than necessarily helping us to finish any higher.

The problem is that the gap to the teams above us got a little too large last season and many of them seem to be working hard at improving their squads for the season ahead. The one thing that may help us however is that most of them will be competing in European competition this season so that could have the effect of putting pressure on their squad depth at times - especially if they suffer any problems with injuries.

Looking at those teams though it is hard to see how we can do enough to catch up with and pass any of the seven teams that finished above us:

* Chelsea - they were streets above us and everyone else last season. While the did poorly the season before, under Conte they look incredibly hard to beat. Even if they lose Costa, they still have huge resources of talented players including Eden Hazard and they are sure to find a quality player to replace him.

* Tottenham - The Spuds may be set to lose Walker, but they have plenty of strength in depth and I have no doubt they will use the money from his sale to buy a good replacement and to strengthen their squad further. Even if they don't I can't see them falling back sufficiently for us to catch them.

* Man City - You have to think that this season could well be the season that they come good, especially if they can finally sort our their fragile defence with good dealings in the transfer market.

* Liverpool - They have maintained a steadily upwards trajectory over the past couple of seasons under Klopp and with continued high levels of transfer spending it seems likely that they should maintain that. Nevertheless, the return to European football this season could put extra pressure on their squad, so it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that they could do less well in the league in the season ahead. If we are to catch anyone next season they could be one of the teams we might have an outside chance of catching. Yet, they have sufficient resources and strength in depth that this must remain unlikely.

* Man Utd - They seem to be spending a lot this summer and Mourinho is a winner. They have certainly begun to look a lot better with him as manager than they have done since Ferguson retired. While I don't think it will be enough to make them genuine challengers for the title, I think it will mean that they should have the strength in depth to maintain at least Europa League qualification and possibly to compete for a Champions League spot. It would take a few catastrophes like in Mourinho's last season at Chelsea for them to be catchable.

* Arsenal - While our expectations of them have slowly descended in recent seasons and there are big questions about whether they can cut it among the big boys any more, they seem to be looking at strengthening their squad more this year than they have done for a while. Whether that will be successful for them remains to be seen, but I still think it would take a much bigger drop in Arsenal's squad ability for them to be quite catchable yet. The fact that they are in the Europa League this season and not the Champions League could work either way and is probably not a significant factor. Nevertheless, if they fail to make the necessary improvements to their squad or if the players they get in are not good enough, then we have shown in recent years that we can match them on the field, so there is some vague outside possibility that we could catch them. It remains very unlikely though.

* Everton - It is a bit shocking to see the amount that Everton are spending this summer. While they may be about to lose Lukaku it would seem more likely that they will push on this season rather than fall back under the pressure of European football. Nevertheless, if the new additions struggle to settle and if they are faced by an injury crisis due to playing so many fixtures there is the possibility that they could still be catchable.

So, while it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Everton, Arsenal, Man Utd or Liverpool could be caught, it would seem highly, highly unlikely.

The bigger challenge for Pellegrino will be to close the gap on those teams and to assert Saints as part of a distinct top eight rather than the top team of the bottom 13. Hopefully he can also prioritise continued commitment to doing well in the cups.

What does anyone else think?

I think it's even money that one of those seven will under-perform next season. Put it this way would you think evens was a good bet for naming that as a top 7 in any order? Spurs are away from WHL, Arsenal on the crest of a slump. Pep could rotate himself into mid table, it might not be Liverpools year. Everton could implode spectacularly. Every season the bookies think these sides are nailed on. I am not so sure they will ALL succeed again. We just need to get back to scoring goals and playing a progressive game. If we do that, we won't be far away.

Legally, we are allowed to, yes.

I think another question to be asked would be, if we finish outside the top half while playing spectacular & entertaining football, will we really be okay with that? (sorry if slightly OTT)

I think another question to be asked would be, if we finish outside the top half while playing spectacular & entertaining football, will we really be okay with that? (sorry if slightly OTT)

Or relatedly, if we finish with more points than this season but in a lower league position, is that an improvement or not?

European competition (or lack thereof) will be an influence on the positions. Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton have that to juggle with this time around. Higher than 7th is very possible for us.

Everton finished seventh last season which means they will never ever slip back ever again and are guaranteed to finish top seven every single season for the rest of my conscious life and probably longer. They have completely left us behind for ever.

With a 20 goal a season striker, absolutely yes.

If we get more points than 8th, we'll be at least 7th.

Everton finished seventh last season which means they will never ever slip back ever again and are guaranteed to finish top seven every single season for the rest of my conscious life and probably longer. They have completely left us behind for ever.

The difference is that they finished 7th and built/building on it. We finished 7th, lost our manager and 3 vital (if not best) players.

As it currently stands, wouldn't surprise me if Bournemouth finished ahead of us next year as well.

Next season will be an interesting one. I think the top 7 will remain as it currently is, with us, Leicester, Bournemouth, Stoke, Palace and Newcastle fighting it out for 8th down

The difference is that they finished 7th and built/building on it. We finished 7th, lost our manager and 3 vital (if not best) players.

 

As it currently stands, wouldn't surprise me if Bournemouth finished ahead of us next year as well.

 

Next season will be an interesting one. I think the top 7 will remain as it currently is, with us, Leicester, Bournemouth, Stoke, Palace and Newcastle fighting it out for 8th down

They have signed a few but nothing has been "built" its all unproven and they are still to lose their two top scorers in Lukaku and Barkley (admittedly he only got 5) but that just shows how much they will miss Lukaku.

So you assume we will finish worse than Bournemouth based on an hunch and expect Everton to remain top 7 based on nothing more than a hunch and losing one of europe`s best strikers... ok then

If Pellegrino gets the players onside from the off, and we play in a way that the players understand and like,we are more than capable.

Rather bizarrely I reckon the players last season were doing to Puel what Leicesters players were doing to Ranieri, last 5 home games without a goal was simply hammering the last nails in.

With a 20 goal a season striker, absolutely yes.

I dont see that happening with out current squad, we either need one of our strikers to step up and score 25 goals or our midfield needs to produce a lot and a lot more goals.

The only way i see that currently happening is when one of the top 7 clubs drops the ball completely.

7th (Everton) are adding nicely to the squad and have a decent manager in Koeman, likewise AFCB (9th) have added nicely but might struggle to keep there better players.

Everton will struggle to juggle Europa + league and I fully expect them to be circa 20 points below last season giving us a real opportunity to take back 7th.

With a bit of investment we should be able to challenge Everton.

The difference is that they finished 7th and built/building on it. We finished 7th, lost our manager and 3 vital (if not best) players.

 

As it currently stands, wouldn't surprise me if Bournemouth finished ahead of us next year as well.

 

Next season will be an interesting one. I think the top 7 will remain as it currently is, with us, Leicester, Bournemouth, Stoke, Palace and Newcastle fighting it out for 8th down

Oh, you're so right. And they will build on that next season and the one after that. It must be brilliant to be an Everton fan knowing that they support the only club in Britain that have cracked the secret formula for building on success every single season. Everton fans will never have a disappointing season ever again.

I wish we were Everton.

Without having to play the Europa league games and hopefully not having our main striker injured for most of the season - yes.

I can't ever remember us having so much of the ball and so many chances in a season whilst scoring so few goals. By my sums if we'd scored one goal in every game more than we did ( Ok I "know" that's not likely) we'd have had an extra 27 points. If we can get our strikers to locate the back of the net again, get the AM contributing, and/or simply instill a degree of confidence back into our attacking play, combined with less reason to rotate the squad this year, it's quite possible, if not likely, that we will catch at least one of those teams above us. Whether that requires signing a new proven scorer or making the best of what we've got will (hopefully) be down to Pellegrino to decide.

Of course, the eternal optimist in me didn't bother to calculate what would have happened if we'd conceded an extra goal per game.

Everton will either not take the Europa League seriously, as Koeman has demonstrated he likes to do, in which case they will probably have another decent season, but will have fans questionning why they didn't go for it more in Europe. If they do get through then the Thursday games will probably be detrimental to their season, added to the fact it's difficult to replace a top class and reliable goalscorer, no matter how many possible options you bring in.

They had quite a few games last season where Lukaku bailed them out, in the same way that Bale scored so many last minute goals out of the blue for Tottenham in his final season. You can replenish the squad with 3 or 4 players, but not many players are going to replicate those moments.

With a bit of investment we should be able to challenge Everton.

Don't see that coming soon though, do you?

Last season showed we have some major issues in the squad that need addressing so it's hard to make a judgement on were we will finish next season until we know who's leaving, staying and coming in.

My gut feeling though is we will struggle to match last season but most people will ( if they are true to their word) be happy with that as long as we score more goals.

They have signed a few but nothing has been "built" its all unproven and they are still to lose their two top scorers in Lukaku and Barkley (admittedly he only got 5) but that just shows how much they will miss Lukaku.

 

So you assume we will finish worse than Bournemouth based on an hunch and expect Everton to remain top 7 based on nothing more than a hunch and losing one of europe`s best strikers... ok then

Look at the last 2 windows, Everton have signed Schneiderlin, Pickford and Klaassen (agree it is yet to be seen how he will adapt to the PL). They're also about to sign Keane and have been heavily linked to Sigurdsson. All of these would make an instant improvement to our squad.

They've also invested heavily in young talent for the future (Lookman, Calvert-Lewin and the Nigerian lad, who was playing in Belgium).

Bournemouth finished behind us only on goal difference last season. They have considerably strengthened their squad this summer with Ake, Defo and Begovic. Based on that, I would expect them to improve on last year.

Obviously it is yet to be seen how loosing Lukaku and EL will impact Everton and of course it is yet to be seen how much / if we improve this season (which I'm optimistic we will). Of course any prediction at this stage is based on a "hunch", unless you can see into the future? and every season throws up a surprise (i.e Leicester). I've looked at both squads and last seasons performance and made a judgement (of course this will change with any signings / sells we make, which I why I said as it stands).

Oh, you're so right. And they will build on that next season and the one after that. It must be brilliant to be an Everton fan knowing that they support the only club in Britain that have cracked the secret formula for building on success every single season. Everton fans will never have a disappointing season ever again.

 

I wish we were Everton.

Strange response, which makes you look about 15 years old, and doesn't really add anything to the debate.

At no point did I say they will never have a disappointing season again and at no point did I say they've cracked the formula for 'building success every single season'. However what I did say, and stand by, is that we stood still last summer and a number of teams have now caught up / over taken us.

Last season showed we have some major isdues in the squad that need addressing so it's hard to make a judgement on were we will finish next season until we know who's leaving, staying and coming in.

My gut feeling though is we will struggle to match last season but most people will ( if they are true to their word) be happy with that as long as we score more goals.

If I had the choice of finishing 13th (17 points off 7th) or 8th (15 points off 7th), whilst feeling like I have got value for money, and enjoy going to St Mary's again, then I would take 13th every day of the week.

Yes, I think there's a good chance we will finish higher than 8th.

Assuming we retain our levels of the past 5 seasons, one or two of the sides in Europe will drop off (Liverpool is the obvious one, Everton will be affected by Europe too) and we can challenge the top 4 with a bit of luck and fewer key injuries. ALL the usual top sides being in Europe gives us every chance of overtaking them as we focus on a single competition and don't have the rigours of the midweek grind we had so often last season. Plus the strikers and keeper surely can't be as ineffective as they were last season again...

I can't ever remember us having so much of the ball and so many chances in a season whilst scoring so few goals. By my sums if we'd scored one goal in every game more than we did ( Ok I "know" that's not likely) we'd have had an extra 27 points. If we can get our strikers to locate the back of the net again, get the AM contributing, and/or simply instill a degree of confidence back into our attacking play, combined with less reason to rotate the squad this year, it's quite possible, if not likely, that we will catch at least one of those teams above us. Whether that requires signing a new proven scorer or making the best of what we've got will (hopefully) be down to Pellegrino to decide.

 

Of course, the eternal optimist in me didn't bother to calculate what would have happened if we'd conceded an extra goal per game.

"Expected Goals" is your friend (and here, also here, if you translate). We were poor at converting chances compared to the benchmarks. See also, Expected Saves - which we were bloody awful at. The stats supported everything we could see. Oh, and FWIW I'll retract my previous defence of Stekelenburg's shot saving abilities - he was indeed one of the worst (to the right of the line) in 2015/16.

xG and goals data for 2016/17 is here: https://public.tableau.com/profile/paul.riley#!/vizhome/PremierLeagueShotDashboard2016-17/PLShotDashboard2016-17

From this you can select Southampton, choose any player, and see how many goals they were expected to score from the chances they had (compared with a historical database of all chances in football in the past 30 years for instance), and how many they actually scored.

Data for 2014/15 and 2015/16 for comparison can be found here: https://differentgame.wordpress.com/xg-shot-maps-and-tables/

Oh yeah, and here's an entire article about "Fraser Forster's failings" which begins with the phrase

"Southampton are having an absolute nightmare with shots on target (SoT) in the box at both ends of the field. They’re the worst team in the Premier League at saving those they face and the worst team in the Premier League at scoring the ones they have themselves." which was written in December 2016.

https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/fraser-forsters-failings/

Sooooo, yeah, we're better than results last season showed (also fatigue but I'm sure people have had enough of me mentioning that). FWIW Alex McCarthy constantly appears at the top end of save stats tables like this.

Yes this is going to be the best season yet. Every summer people envy other transfers but loads will tank. We have better foundation and what looks to be a superb manager.

Threads like this always come to bite people in the arse, especially before July!

Best wait until at least November before making these sort of calls imo....

I remember the summer when Norwich had signed better and climbed 'above us' - not that they actually did end up above us in the real world.

Threads like this always come to bite people in the arse, especially before July!

 

Best wait until at least November before making these sort of calls imo....

 

I remember the summer when Norwich had signed better and climbed 'above us' - not that they actually did end up above us in the real world.

I will cope if my prediction doesn't happen.

Bournemouth will be sh1t and Defoe will be as disappointing as QPR's Ferdinand signing.

Ok, I reckon the league won't have such a big gap between 7th and the rest. I think Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton will suffer slightly with the extra games - so that will bring them closer to the rest.

I think City will probably win the league. Their attack will be to die for. They still need a CB though...(hands off..)

If we retain VVD, Bertrand and Soares and they stay fit then I dont see why not.

Ok, I reckon the league won't have such a big gap between 7th and the rest. I think Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton will suffer slightly with the extra games - so that will bring them closer to the rest.

 

I think City will probably win the league. Their attack will be to die for. They still need a CB though...(hands off..)

Ditto

Can we finish higher than 8th?

Yes

Will we finish higher than 8th?

This -->

If we retain VVD, Bertrand and Soares and they stay fit then I dont see why not.

Threads like this always come to bite people in the arse, especially before July!

 

Best wait until at least November before making these sort of calls imo....

 

I remember the summer when Norwich had signed better and climbed 'above us' - not that they actually did end up above us in the real world.

I've been saying for months that if we don't sell key players and do the same stuff we'll challenge for the top 4 next season. General themes - bizarrely low shot conversion, high conceding from bog-standard chances, players we've signed having a full pre-season and better understanding of the league and their teammates, fewer matches. Also, every team that came above us last season having to deal with Europe - haven't checked the fixtures to see how many of them we're playing on Sundays due to European fixtures yet (will be lower than last season obviously), but that could help too with their squad rotation affecting the quality of teams we face. Christmas is still going to screw us over though, of course, and injuries/suspensions at key times are always a factor.

I've been saying for months that if we don't sell key players and do the same stuff we'll challenge for the top 4 next season. General themes - bizarrely low shot conversion, high conceding from bog-standard chances, players we've signed having a full pre-season and better understanding of the league and their teammates, fewer matches. Also, every team that came above us last season having to deal with Europe - haven't checked the fixtures to see how many of them we're playing on Sundays due to European fixtures yet (will be lower than last season obviously), but that could help too with their squad rotation affecting the quality of teams we face. Christmas is still going to screw us over though, of course, and injuries/suspensions at key times are always a factor.

I remember you telling us we wont be sacking Puel for finishing in the top half and a cup final....

I think we will do about the same...top half finish but doing so with more entertainment.

Of course, if we do not sell anyone (well, maybe Bertrand as that wont go away)......but keep everyone else who we regard as a starter...Get Gallagher involved etc, sign a very good CB who is good enough to start alongside VvD, a very good DM and a very good attacking midfielder...i think a top 6 challenge will be a decent shout

top 4 next season? no chance IMO

I remember you telling us we wont be sacking Puel for finishing in the top half and a cup final....

I remember you telling us Puel would be gone by Christmas

I remember you telling us Puel would be gone by Christmas

only a few months out. Closer than saying he would not go at all.

It was obvious early on that he was not our long term manager. How right was that

only a few months out. Closer than saying he would not go at all.

It was obvious early on that he was not our long term manager. How right was that

TBF you had his cards marked very early doors - for some reason talent spotting (or lack of) on here is frowned upon rather than embraced.

You should now be the go-to guy for players and manager reviews but of course those wrong about Puel will still insist they know best.

Keep up the good work mate

TBF you had his cards marked very early doors - for some reason talent spotting (or lack of) on here is frowned upon rather than embraced.

 

You should now be the go-to guy for players and manager reviews but of course those wrong about Puel will still insist they know best.

 

Keep up the good work mate

I was right about Burley too.

I was right about Burley too.

You're consistently right to be fair - don't let the haters get you down.

only a few months out. Closer than saying he would not go at all.

It was obvious early on that he was not our long term manager. How right was that

Six months... did the bookies pay you out with you being soooooo close

I see "team troll" are out

I remember you telling us we wont be sacking Puel for finishing in the top half and a cup final....

 

I think we will do about the same...top half finish but doing so with more entertainment.

Of course, if we do not sell anyone (well, maybe Bertrand as that wont go away)......but keep everyone else who we regard as a starter...Get Gallagher involved etc, sign a very good CB who is good enough to start alongside VvD, a very good DM and a very good attacking midfielder...i think a top 6 challenge will be a decent shout

 

top 4 next season? no chance IMO

Not true, I said we *shouldn't* be sacking him, based on all the same stuff I'm still saying. The fan reaction and threat to ST sales from that is what did for him.

I'm not saying it'll be easy, I'm saying we're in the equation.

Weirdly think we could've finished higher than eighth with Puel at the helm next season...

Weirdly think we could've finished higher than eighth with Puel at the helm next season...

I really dont. We were just not getting any better and it seems the club agreed

Or relatedly, if we finish with more points than this season but in a lower league position, is that an improvement or not?

I kind of agree with the original post - breaking into the top 7 will be incredibly difficult given the money they're all investing. For me the important stat is points difference to relegation rather than league position - although the 2 are related obviously! So 20 points clear of relegation and finishing 4th from bottom is probably better than 9th and 2 points clear.

If we get our act together and get VvD and Romeu decent partners, I reckon we could push Everton for 7th. Missing Lukakus goals as well as a Europa schedule, 7th is up for grabs!

Weirdly think we could've finished higher than eighth with Puel at the helm next season...

Forever the weirdo. You still pretending not to be the resident skate?

Weirdly think we could've finished higher than eighth with Puel at the helm next season...

It wasn't beyond the realms of possibility. However, if there was dressing room unrest I think it was more likely to be a step backwards, or at least, in true Puel-style, sideways. I don't think the club would have taken his sacking lightly, so let's just trust they've done the right thing and hope Pellegrino is the right man to take us forward. I'm positive based on the things I've read about him as a person, but less so purely on his one good season with Alaves.

Not without a couple of signing to improve the first XI in central midfield and centre back.

Simple question is who of last seasons top 7 can we finish ahead of realistically. Everton are the only ones really, but they have made some clever signings since January and have a good Manager.