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The Battle For Seventh


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Theres been a lot of debate about whether Everton are better than us. looking at perspective line ups I'd say not.

 

Forster Pickford

 

Soares Van Dijk Yoshida Bertrand Coleman Williams Keane Baines

 

Romeu Davies Klaassen Schneiderlin Gueye

 

Boufal Ramirez Giroud Onyekuru

 

Redmond Tadic

 

Gabiadini

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Goalkeepers:

Forster or Pickford. I'd rather have Pickford but it'll be quite a different experience for him playing at Everton instead of Sunderland, in the same way that Mignolet found. 0-1

 

Defenders:

Soares is good but so is Coleman. Van Dijk is better than anything they have, but I'd probably take Keane over Yoshida. Bertrand is better than Baines nowadays. 2-1

 

Central Midfielders:

Romeu is probably a match for Schneiderlin or Gueye, I certainly wouldn't swap him but equally I don't know if Everton would either. Either way, they have a better 'partner' for their number 1 DM.

Hard to make a judgement call on Klassen yet, Barkley might be on the way out, but they might end up replacing him with Sigurdsson. Davis is probably our best AMC though, and it's hard to see how one of Everton's options won't be better than him. 0-2.

 

Wide Midfielders:

I'd take Redmond over Lennon, and probably Tadic over Bolasie or Mirallas. However, think there's a case to argue on the latter, especially if one of Everton's new players does a job out there. 1-0.

 

Strikers:

Well at the moment Lukaku wins, but assuming he leaves, then I think Gabbiadini is better than what they have. Of course, they may yet sign an good replacement, but Gabbiadini still tops Rooney or Giroud. 1-0.

 

First team: 4-4. Obviously others may feel differently but I've tried not to be biased!

 

However, I would note that although the first team looks fairly even, I'm not sure we could compete with them in terms of reserves, and that may well prove critical over the course of the season. For most positions it seems like it is "Saints player is about as good Everton player A and player B", whereas I reckon if you used Southampton backups it would be a clear Everton win. Probably the most stark area for this is central midfield, as they also have Tom Davies and James McCarthy.

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Regarding Everton i'd say it really depends on how their new signings settle in and how the extra European games affect them. If (when?) Lukaku goes they are going to have to find those missing goals from somewhere as well and high scorers aren't exactly easy to come by nowadays.

 

If we get a couple more in but keep a generally consistent squad I see no reason we can't finish above them, especially if the new managers tactics are bought into by the players and are effective.

 

I can also see a couple of the 'big' teams struggling as well meaning 7th shouldn't be the limit (namely Pool and particularly Man U depending on how their transfer activity goes).

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Er let's be honest here. Everton finished what 15 points above us?

So before we start comparing line ups, have we done anything to close that gap ? I would say no.

Everton have made several big signings so currently I would say they are much better than us. We need to improve a lot before we can say we are realistically as good or better than them. They are also reported to be after Sigurdsson too for 32 mill so we have our work cut out to say the least.

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All depends on if those new Everton players gel together and play as a team.

 

That's no mean feat to start with, as we all know from our experience in our 1st Europa campaign back that Ron will play weakened teams in the Europa to ensure that league form does not drop, it will be interesting to see how they cope, but if they don't manage to break into the top 4 or consolidate in the top 6 this season with the money they've spent I wouldn't want to be in Ron's shoes, their fans and board will crucify him

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Everton will be an exciting team this year. One of the best academies in the country at the moment with some good young additions in Pickford/Keane/Ramirez. Schneiderlin and Gueye is a solid midfield pairing and the experience of Sigurdsson/Rooney should those signings go through (looks likely)will add quality.

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Player for player they are better than us and if they sign Sigurdsson they'll be way ahead. Plus they have some old dugouts and there's something special about their floodlights so I'm off to support them now.

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Er let's be honest here. Everton finished what 15 points above us?

So before we start comparing line ups, have we done anything to close that gap ? I would say no.

Everton have made several big signings so currently I would say they are much better than us. We need to improve a lot before we can say we are realistically as good or better than them. They are also reported to be after Sigurdsson too for 32 mill so we have our work cut out to say the least.

 

Well we have done something, change the coach which is exactly what Everton did last season after they had an underperforming Martinez. Don't think our team needs radical surgery. We bought well in January getting gabbi and if we can get one quality midfielder in I'd be reasonably happy we could at least give them a run for their money.

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Er let's be honest here. Everton finished what 15 points above us?

So before we start comparing line ups, have we done anything to close that gap ? I would say no.

Everton have made several big signings so currently I would say they are much better than us. We need to improve a lot before we can say we are realistically as good or better than them. They are also reported to be after Sigurdsson too for 32 mill so we have our work cut out to say the least.

 

Yeah, we got ourselves out of having to play Europa League and they've got themselves into it. That should cover off most of the 15 points without transfers even coming into it.

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Player for player they are better than us and if they sign Sigurdsson they'll be way ahead. Plus they have some old dugouts and there's something special about their floodlights so I'm off to support them now.

 

If they sign Sigurðsson there's no guarantee he'll work out for them the way he does at Swansea. Spurs seemed happy enough to get rid...

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We finished 15 points behind Everton last season. I think that is too big a gap to make up tbh.

 

Not impossible, but I'd say Everton are 90% likely to finish above us.

 

How many points did we finish ahead of them season before last out of interest?

Edit- just checked, we finished 16 points. So they managed it, in fact they managed a 31 point swing on us. We only need to manage a 16 point swing to actually finish above them so not impossible at all.

Let's go into a season with optimism for once, eh?

Edited by Saint_clark
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How many points did we finish ahead of them season before last out of interest?

Edit- just checked, we finished 16 points. So they managed it, in fact they managed a 31 point swing on us. We only need to manage a 16 point swing to actually finish above them so not impossible at all.

Let's go into a season with optimism for once, eh?

 

He has done all the science and arrived at 90%. Football is stats.

I think It's 88% likely that the Everton love-in and praisefest is going to look very stupid come the end of season.

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How many points did we finish ahead of them season before last out of interest?

Edit- just checked, we finished 16 points. So they managed it, in fact they managed a 31 point swing on us. We only need to manage a 16 point swing to actually finish above them so not impossible at all.

Let's go into a season with optimism for once, eh?

 

they managed it because we had in idiot as manager

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they managed it because we had in idiot as manager

 

Puel was a huge factor but you can't under estimate the additional games and impact this had.

 

Everton will struggle in the league this season but i do expect them to do better in Europe than we did.

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Puel was a huge factor but you can't under estimate the additional games and impact this had.

 

Everton will struggle in the league this season but i do expect them to do better in Europe than we did.

 

they have built a far better squad for it to be fair

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We finished 15 points behind Everton last season. I think that is too big a gap to make up tbh.

 

Not impossible, but I'd say Everton are 90% likely to finish above us.

 

Well we made up a 20 point gap on Leicester from the season before despite losing some top players.

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Puel was a huge factor but you can't under estimate the additional games and impact this had.

 

Everton will struggle in the league this season but i do expect them to do better in Europe than we did.

 

Koeman's track record suggests otherwise. He has a long history of failing in Europe. Dutch clubs, Valencia, and with us.

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How many points did we finish ahead of them season before last out of interest?

Edit- just checked, we finished 16 points. So they managed it, in fact they managed a 31 point swing on us. We only need to manage a 16 point swing to actually finish above them so not impossible at all.

Let's go into a season with optimism for once, eh?

 

Yeah, it's possible, I guess. But the season before last was Saints' best ever points finish and Everton performed well below par. Last season is more of a reversion to the norm, I guess.

 

All things equal, you'd expect Everton to finish above Saints. Of course, it's never the case that all things are equal, but I'd guess that Southampton finishing 16 points above Everton has been very, very unusual in the last 50 or 60 years (possibly the biggest Saints lead ever? I haven't checked)

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Yeah, it's possible, I guess. But the season before last was Saints' best ever points finish and Everton performed well below par. Last season is more of a reversion to the norm, I guess.

 

All things equal, you'd expect Everton to finish above Saints. Of course, it's never the case that all things are equal, but I'd guess that Southampton finishing 16 points above Everton has been very, very unusual in the last 50 or 60 years (possibly the biggest Saints lead ever? I haven't checked)

 

The season before last was our best ever points finish... a whole 3 points more than the season before. And Everton performed well below par... more or less where they finished the season before. Yep, last season was definitely a reversion to the norm.:mcinnes:

Why would Everton be expected to finish above Saints, all things being equal? The last 50 0r 60 years are irrelevant, the last 5 years matter far more. Both clubs' annual turnover are almost identical. Today, in 2017, they are in fact the most similar club to us along with Leicester. They are not the Everton of the 80s, they are not even the Everton of the 90s or 00s, they aren't anywhere near Spurs in financial power, there is the big 6 and the rest and Everton are firmly among the rest. History means nothing.

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Many congratulations to Heisenberg for making Everton the most important theme on Saintsweb !

His dedication and drive to this end has been immense and cannot be underestimated !

Is it really only me who doesn't give a s#it about them :mcinnes:

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The season before last was our best ever points finish... a whole 3 points more than the season before. And Everton performed well below par... more or less where they finished the season before. Yep, last season was definitely a reversion to the norm.:mcinnes:

Why would Everton be expected to finish above Saints, all things being equal? The last 50 0r 60 years are irrelevant, the last 5 years matter far more. Both clubs' annual turnover are almost identical. Today, in 2017, they are in fact the most similar club to us along with Leicester. They are not the Everton of the 80s, they are not even the Everton of the 90s or 00s, they aren't anywhere near Spurs in financial power, there is the big 6 and the rest and Everton are firmly among the rest. History means nothing.

 

Well, if it's the last 5 years you're interested in then Everton, on average, finish five points above Saints.

 

This obviously includes two seasons where we got our highest points totals in the Premier League (60 and 63) and Everton got amongst their worst ever (47 and 47). Debatable whether you consider this an outlier or part of the "new normal", I guess. I think it's an outlier.

 

Looking at the bookies' odds, to finish in the top 4, Everton are 8/1, we are 20/1. To finish in the top six, Everton are 2/1 and we are 5/1. To finish in the top half, Everton are 1/8 and we are 1/2. To be relegated, Everton are 100/1 and we are about 20/1. Sound about right to me - i.e. very likely that Everton will finish above Saints, but not a total racing certainty.

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  • 2 months later...
Still very early days but table is taking shape.

 

Our next 6 games includes Stoke, WBA, Brighton, Newcastle and Burnley. If we can get 12 points from the next 6 games we will be well on course for 7th.

 

Lets hope you are right we just need a little luck which Puel never seemed to have

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