Not that any of you REALLY believe it.....

We now have a run of 8 winnable games in the next 9. So let's see how we go.....

Just stuck 20 quid on it. Should cushion the blow if we do end up going down.

You are having a laugh £120. You must have a really dull life if £120 is going to soften the blow of our relegation. What is that a couple of weeks worth of petrol to work, a nice meal out or a pair of trainers and a t shirt. Seriously would any of that make you feel better.

At least you had the balls to say what miserly amount you might win.

You are all collaborators and you should be rounded up before the last game of the season and made to parade around the pitch.

Knee jerk? Been warning about this for 18 months.

Me too our recent form from the first time RK took us to 6th the fixtures we played on the run in fell perfectly for us.Then the fire sale of our assets started again and this time the extinguisher failed to put it out ,and then it caught hold again and somehow the black box got damaged and the rest well this thread happend.

My cash out option is now in profit , debating cashing in haha !

I admit I cashed out of one bet after Sunday's performance. I'm thinking the stink that VVD's attitude left over the team has been removed and I'm seeing slow improvement. Think we'll probably beat Brighton now and not be in the bottom 3 again. Though I am leaving the 26-1 bet running just incase.

All the teams above us up to Huddersfield are lower odds than us to be relegated. That is surprising.

I've been looking back at the bottom half of previous few seasons at this stage and at the end of the season. It hasn't been anywhere near as tight as this before. In 2014/15 there were 3pts between 15th & 18th, and that's the closest anyone in the relegation zone has been to teams much further up. Reason for hope?

In the last three seasons, the team in 20th have been relegated twice, the team in 19th once, and the team in 18th all three seasons. Yikes. Admittedly, that doesn't mean anything really, at least one of the bottom three after 24 games has escaped by the end in each of those seasons!

Only four sides have more than doubled their points tally from now until the end of the sesaon (Leicester 14/15: 17 + 24, Sunderland 15/16 19 + 20, Palace 16/17 19 + 22, Leicester 16/17 21 + 23). Interestingly, the three teams to escape relegation in the previous three years were these teams (Leicester 16/17 being the anomaly who were 16th).

In order to reach 40 points, we need 82% of our current points tally. This has only been achieved by 7 teams in the last three seasons. The four mentioned above, plus Palace 14/15 (26+22), WBA 14/15 (23+21) & Swansea 16/17 (21+20).

Taking out the outliers (2 highest & 2 lowest) of the bottom 13 clubs, the average points tally in the remaining 14 games of the season was 14/15 68%, 15/16 57%, 16/17 57%. An overall average of 60%, that would take our current points total to 35. A figure that would have been enough to stay up last season and probably (with a decent GD) in 14/15, but not in 15/16.

Last season the bottom 6 were separated by 2 points. Palace, Swansea and Leicester have already been mentioned above as putting in a stellar final few months, while Middlesbrough and Sunderland tanked and only took 12 points BETWEEN them to the end of the season. Hull had a decent return, 70% (20+14), but it wasn't good enough, especially due to the impressive performance of a few others.

I'm not really sure what to take from or make out of any of this really, each season is different so you can't draw any conclusions from statistics. But it was interesting to look at anyway, maybe others might find it so too.

Never uploaded a picture before (successfully anyway), let's hope this works...

This reminds me of master sergeant Ernest Bilko when he placed a heavy bet on his platoon failing to win a singing contest. A corporal said "sarge......betting against your own men!!" Bilko spreads his palms and says "its sordid, but profitable"

A lot of very clever people were certain we would get hammered on Sunday. It seems a tad pessimistic to me to think we can't win 3 home games and 3 away seeing we've played all the top teams away apart from Arsenal but perhaps it was just a blip on Sunday.

Pessimistic?

 

Perhaps. But we've won 4. We've had slightly better performances against better sides before. All that really matters is our ability to win games and we've failed time and again.

 

I'd be delighted to be wrong and see us win a few and stay up. But after failing to beat so many teams, it would be a bit naive to think it'll just click and correct itself now.

 

Yep agree. Unfortunately there is no evidence we are going to win many more games this season or even get enough points to stay up. In fact it wouldn't totally surprise me if we finished bottom.

A lot of very clever people were certain we would get hammered on Sunday. It seems a tad pessimistic to me to think we can't win 3 home games and 3 away seeing we've played all the top teams away apart from Arsenal but perhaps it was just a blip on Sunday.

I’d say it was more realistic than pessimistic. We’ve won 3 out of our last 18 home games (Jesus Christ) so realistically winning 3 from the remaining home fixtures does not seem that likely.

I've been looking back at the bottom half of previous few seasons at this stage and at the end of the season. It hasn't been anywhere near as tight as this before. In 2014/15 there were 3pts between 15th & 18th, and that's the closest anyone in the relegation zone has been to teams much further up. Reason for hope?

 

In the last three seasons, the team in 20th have been relegated twice, the team in 19th once, and the team in 18th all three seasons. Yikes. Admittedly, that doesn't mean anything really, at least one of the bottom three after 24 games has escaped by the end in each of those seasons!

 

Only four sides have more than doubled their points tally from now until the end of the sesaon (Leicester 14/15: 17 + 24, Sunderland 15/16 19 + 20, Palace 16/17 19 + 22, Leicester 16/17 21 + 23). Interestingly, the three teams to escape relegation in the previous three years were these teams (Leicester 16/17 being the anomaly who were 16th).

 

In order to reach 40 points, we need 82% of our current points tally. This has only been achieved by 7 teams in the last three seasons. The four mentioned above, plus Palace 14/15 (26+22), WBA 14/15 (23+21) & Swansea 16/17 (21+20).

 

Taking out the outliers (2 highest & 2 lowest) of the bottom 13 clubs, the average points tally in the remaining 14 games of the season was 14/15 68%, 15/16 57%, 16/17 57%. An overall average of 60%, that would take our current points total to 35. A figure that would have been enough to stay up last season and probably (with a decent GD) in 14/15, but not in 15/16.

 

Last season the bottom 6 were separated by 2 points. Palace, Swansea and Leicester have already been mentioned above as putting in a stellar final few months, while Middlesbrough and Sunderland tanked and only took 12 points BETWEEN them to the end of the season. Hull had a decent return, 70% (20+14), but it wasn't good enough, especially due to the impressive performance of a few others.

 

I'm not really sure what to take from or make out of any of this really, each season is different so you can't draw any conclusions from statistics. But it was interesting to look at anyway, maybe others might find it so too.

 

Never uploaded a picture before (successfully anyway), let's hope this works...

 

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Genuinely excellent research though you do come across a tad like Mr Logic “out of” Viz.

Genuinely excellent research though you do come across a tad like Mr Logic “out of” Viz.

Unfortunately that is lost on me, although I have just looked up an image to see what you're referencing. Haha, yes, hence my penultimate sentence about not really sure what to make out of it. But some people, myself included, like looking at stats and data, even if in this case it's more about looking at the background/bigger picture than drawing any reliable conclusions.

I probably could have written less and just posted the picture but I wrote it all under the assumption the image wouldn't work, and then it did!

I got 19-1 in early November and laid just under £20 as a security bet. I never thought we'd be in the relegation zone in late January. I'm not cashing that out, my first born is due in June and as gutted as I'd be about Saints relegation, that money would come in handy!

The Brighton game is massive for our season. IMO win and the confidence from the previous two games, and we could go on a run, however I still have us as being relegated - those last few fixtures could be our downfall. Hope I'm wrong.

Are you seriously suggesting we are not already down?

 

**** me I love this forum

 

You'd just never meet people like this in real life! Or perhaps you do they're just afraid to voice their opinions in person and would rather do it from behind a screen. Same for those posters on here who rate or rated Puel too. You'd find it absolutely impossible to find somebody in the real world who think's Puel was anything other than a disaster for us, yet here there are at least 5 posters who think he was good, one even said he was world class. Amazing what you'll find on a message forum, truly amazing.

Er, I will happily point out how very wrong everyone was about Puel face to face too.

PRE BRIGHTON MATCH UPDATE - Seeing as Promes now isn't coming (and nor is anyone else presumably) and that a good chunk of the forum thinks an inevitable failure to win tonight in a poisonous atmosphere will absolutely guarantee relegation.....we can still be backed at bigger than 5/1 to go down.

I might top up.

PRE BRIGHTON MATCH UPDATE - Seeing as Promes now isn't coming (and nor is anyone else presumably) and that a good chunk of the forum thinks an inevitable failure to win tonight in a poisonous atmosphere will absolutely guarantee relegation.....we can still be backed at bigger than 5/1 to go down.

Free money

Struggling to see 5/1 anywhere. Best now seems to be 4/1

Betfair.....

On the plus side my cash out has gone up !

Yep mine too. Up to a £60ish profit...tempting but we’re so bad I think you’d be stupid to cash out now

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POST BRIGHTON UPDATE........Forum split between those who think if MP goes we could still pull off a "miracle" and those who think it's just too late even if it happens. Betfair relegation price into 4/1.

Do we really believe it yet?

The worst thing about last night's performance is we didn't look like winning. I got 14/1 relegation odds on Betfair after the Burnley debacle. Only stuck £5 on but Betfair now have cash out of £11.90. I'm going to hang on for me £75 payout in May.

absolutely incredible the bookies still rate us. If MP stays we are surely odds on. Once he ****s up again on Saturday it may be too late even for a new manager.

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Bookies are literally giving money away just now - picked up another easy £95 on Brighton W or X last night.

When we are home the bookies still really fancy us for the win - they will wake up eventually but in the meantime i'm cleaning up.

absolutely incredible the bookies still rate us. If MP stays we are surely odds on. Once he ****s up again on Saturday it may be too late even for a new manager.

 

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Not really,there are teams with worse form than ourselves just now. And the form book would say that we have the players to get us out of the situation.

Not really,there are teams with worse form than ourselves just now. And the form book would say that we have the players to get us out of the situation.

We are bottom of the form table for the last 12 games. We have picked up 7 points in our last 12 games, W0 D7 L5 GD-9

We are bottom of the form table for the last 12 games. We have picked up 7 points in our last 12 games, W0 D7 L5 GD-9

But 12 games takes you back to the autumn I think. Over the last 6 Brighton and Huddersfield have both picked up 1 less point than us. Think Huddersfield will go down myself, with Brighton and Palace.

Bookies are literally giving money away just now - picked up another easy £95 on Brighton W or X last night.

 

When we are home the bookies still really fancy us for the win - they will wake up eventually but in the meantime i'm cleaning up.

This is due to shot stats and XG though. If you ignore form etc and purely look at creating chances, dominating possession etc, we should be winning games. We're not due to defensive errors, poor finishing, tactical mismanagement etc.

The large betting firms ( Bettors making bets, not bookies) tend to operate from a stats based perspective. They bet money based on what their stats tell them 'should' happen. This money is significant and can move the markets. If their stats [shots stats, possession, chances created etc] are telling them we are more likely to win than draw or lose and the bookies open on us to win at say 2/1, the large firms will hoover this price up until liabilities force them to cut the price back to something more in line with the betting firm's perception of the price.

In effect, the models used by large bettors are not detailed enough to account for our actual performance and this means they (and as a result the bookies) keep getting us wrong. Agree, there is money to be made by backing the opposition on the double chance against us as a result.

POST WEST BROM UPDATE - Forum a lot happier (except the bit about keeping the manager), Betfair relegation price out to 13/2.

Yep mine too. Up to a £60ish profit...tempting but we’re so bad I think you’d be stupid to cash out now

 

 

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Crazy. Cash out has halved after today...!

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I put just under £1,000 on us to go down at about 10/1 on Betfair Exchange (think it averaged out at 11.2 ...so 10.2/1). That was after the Huddersfield 1-1.

My rationale was that I'd need about £10,000 to compensate me for the misery of relegation if it happened. My secondary rationale was I genuinely thought there was a much higher than 10% of us getting relegated.

All in all, though, I hope I lose my stake. Not sure you can really work out how much you need to offset the misery!

Relegation price drifting further now the market has taken in all the weekend action, now 15/2.

I can see the odds drifting further over Feb and March as the fixtures for us are favorable.

Liverpool

Burnley

Stoke City

Newcastle United

Swansea City

West Ham United

Problem is if we fail to pick up a 10 points (minimum) we then finish the season with 4 of last seasons top 7, 2016 champions and the best team in the south coast (just now)

Arsenal

Chelsea

Leicester City

Bournemouth

Everton

Manchester City

I actually think something like 2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for us to stay up. Just.

March is a massive month for us. I have a feeling we may take a point this sunday. I'm more worried about the Burnley game. Theres still enough games left to go on a little run and as much as we want MP gone, he got the line up spot-on on saturday and if we set up like that going forward then it should be enough.

I just hope the board have some candidates lined up in the summer and act more decisively. Lets not forget, the decision to take three weeks to sack Puel is what has left us in this mess

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WEEKLY UPDATE - Forum (perhaps unsurprisingly given that 2nd half performance) back to doom and gloom with plenty reverting to relegation being an inevitablilty. The market (again perhaps unsurprisingly) takes a more balanced view and while after a nightmare weekend of results our price to be relegated has contracted, it is still as big as 9/2.

And now 5/1.....

.....but if you are dim enough to think we are now down and nothing can save us you can get upwards of 5/1 for your money on Betfair. Before the replies come in, yes we are obviously in a scrap, i'm merely pointing out the sheer nonsense of some of the knee jerk reactions at FT.

Are you dim enough to just read and comment on the first few words of a post lasting just two sentences?

Are you dim enough to just read and comment on the first few words of a post lasting just two sentences?

POST BURNLEY UPDATE - Forum remains pretty downbeat, status quo maintained in the market with Saints 9/2 to go down. Interestingly (to me at least) looking at the prices just before Gabbigol popped up suggests we would have still been at least 3/1 to go down if we had lost whereas on here, a loss but no managerial sacking would have left a pretty high percentage completely resigned to relegation imo.

I'd wait until next week, looks like at least 3 teams around us are playing very difficult games and if we beat stoke we'll pull away a bit and Will be about 7-1. I expect us to get a draw though and move to 5-1 or 11-2.

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WEEKLY UPDATE - Forum desperately downbeat after the Stoke game - "We are down" certainly the commonest phrase seen in the post match chat. The market, whilst shortening us in to 7/2 to go down (close to the shortest we have been) still sees us as considerably more likely to stay up than go down.

WEEKLY UPDATE - Forum desperately downbeat after the Stoke game - "We are down" certainly the commonest phrase seen in the post match chat. The market, whilst shortening us in to 7/2 to go down (close to the shortest we have been) still sees us as considerably more likely to stay up than go down.

Tempted to put some more money into it even at 7/2. I’d put us at more likely to get relegated than not right now...

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My take (for what that's worth) is that the market has not just a more logical stance than some of us fans but more importantly a dispassionate one. We have some much emotion invested in it that it is difficult for some to see that fans of other clubs are feeling exactly the same as the majority on here. The Stoke forum theme is "We somehow escaped with a 0-0, but this was a must win, Lambert is clueless, we are down"....West Ham's is "I've been saying Gold and Sullivan would be the death of us and here we are shipping 4 at Swansea in a six pointer and now with literally no defence left. We are down".....Palace fans "No chance of anything in our next few games and by the time Zaha is back we'll be adrift - we are down"....even fans who are pleased with their team like Huddersfield still think "you just know the long season will catch up with us and the likes of Stoke and Southampton will nick a couple of wins and we'll go down".

The point is "we" can't ALL be right - most of the fans currently thinking they are doomed (with the exception of West Brom) are quite likely to be wrong and that includes ours.

My take (for what that's worth) is that the market has not just a more logical stance than some of us fans but more importantly a dispassionate one. We have some much emotion invested in it that it is difficult for some to see that fans of other clubs are feeling exactly the same as the majority on here. The Stoke forum theme is "We somehow escaped with a 0-0, but this was a must win, Lambert is clueless, we are down"....West Ham's is "I've been saying Gold and Sullivan would be the death of us and here we are shipping 4 at Swansea in a six pointer and now with literally no defence left. We are down".....Palace fans "No chance of anything in our next few games and by the time Zaha is back we'll be adrift - we are down"....even fans who are pleased with their team like Huddersfield still think "you just know the long season will catch up with us and the likes of Stoke and Southampton will nick a couple of wins and we'll go down".

The point is "we" can't ALL be right - most of the fans currently thinking they are doomed (with the exception of West Brom) are quite likely to be wrong and that includes ours.

That's true to an extent but when you have won one game since November, I don't think our fans are overreacting to the threat of relegation.