WBA v Saints - 5th Round FA Cup Thread

5th round - West Brom (Pardew)

6th round - Hull (Nige)

Semi - Spurs (Poch)

Final - Leicester (Puel)

Only Ronnie K missing from the complete set! That and the fact we’ll probably lose to a Rodriguez goal at WBA in the next round!

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What a brilliant draw! Absolutely pumped for this one

Nah, not really. It's sh it.

Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

Win the FA Cup.

This. What's the point in supporting a football team if you don't want to win trophies? As Paul Wotton said after the JPT Final, "If you don't want days like these then you shouldn't be playing football!" Or something similar.

?

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Yes; 1-1 draw on Feb 14th.

 

Saints won the replay 4-0 on the 17th.

Micky Channon ripped WBA a new one,he was unplayable that night,the Dell fullhouse under floodlights omg am I that old? Saint till I die!

Micky Channon ripped WBA a new one,he was unplayable that night,the Dell fullhouse under floodlights omg am I that old? Saint till I die!

Yes I was there too remember huge queues to get in missed the first two goals channon and gilchrist ?

Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

ITK?

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That is such a typical Saints FA Cup draw. One of the most dull clubs around WBA.

Crap draw. I reckon it's fixed

Yes I was there too remember huge queues to get in missed the first two goals channon and gilchrist ?

Channon after 90 seconds as I recall, and Gilchrist's a spectacular over head kick. 4-0 at half time.

Channon's recollection:

Micky Channon ripped WBA a new one,he was unplayable that night,the Dell fullhouse under floodlights omg am I that old? Saint till I die!

Yep, the replay was a fantastic night. We'd taken something like 10,000 up to West Brom for the first match, would think we could have around 5k for this one. Winnable.

Pretty good draw that. A tricky, but winable game.

Micky Channon ripped WBA a new one,he was unplayable that night,the Dell fullhouse under floodlights omg am I that old? Saint till I die!

Remember it well. Went straight from school via the Hythe Ferry with a few mates, still wearing our school uniforms. Great view from the boy's box at the Milton end. Happy days!

West Brom struggle to sell out for Premier league games so fingers crossed they price this sensibly and make tickets £15, would be good to get a decent following up there like we had at Fulham, but considering we haven’t got close to selling out for the league game this weekend I can’t see us taking more than 2500.

Hopefully stays as a Saturday 3pm kick off.

Sturridge will put us out of both competitions. He always scores against us.

Well, can't really complain with West Brom as I should be able to go to the match, but out of all the midlands teams still in the Cup, it has to be the team that we're playing 2 weeks before. Would've much preferred a different ground, someone we've not played for a while, like Coventry or Notts County. Oh well, another excuse for a Balti after the match I suppose.

Sturridge will put us out of both competitions. He always scores against us.

One goal in his last five appearances against us...

To pour some cold water on the hot balls theory it looks like the draw isn't rigged at all.

If you take 4 big teams and 12 other teams and let their be a random draw including H and A I make it there are 240 possible combinations of which only 12 consist of the top 4 playing each other. Last night they drew 16 ties and none of them featured any combination of big v big. That's as far as my maths goes if anyone wants to take it on from there but I'm not seeing any evidence there for the more hysterical claims that TV pay to heat up the balls (and loads and loads of old pro's/pundits are in on the scam too!).

One goal in his last five appearances against us...

Stop posting facts Shirley, they don`t suit the place...

To pour some cold water on the hot balls theory it looks like the draw isn't rigged at all.

 

If you take 4 big teams and 12 other teams and let their be a random draw including H and A I make it there are 240 possible combinations of which only 12 consist of the top 4 playing each other. Last night they drew 16 ties and none of them featured any combination of big v big. That's as far as my maths goes if anyone wants to take it on from there but I'm not seeing any evidence there for the more hysterical claims that TV pay to heat up the balls (and loads and loads of old pro's/pundits are in on the scam too!).

Ignoring who are the home and away teams, there are actually 2,027,025 ways of pairing up the 16 teams in the 5th round draw (15 x 13 x 11 x 7 x 5 x 3)

I made it that the odds of the four 'big' teams all avoiding each other in the draw was 8/13 - just under 2/3. So still more likely than any of them playing each other.

I think that the myth around heating up the balls started in Scotland, when they were supposed to do this in the later stages of the Scottish cup to keep Rangers and Celtic apart. I think that it's just that people like conspiracy theories rather than accepting the simple truth - FA cup drawers are random, Diana's death was a terrible accident, Obama was born in the USA, etc etc. Conspiracies sell newspapers.

Thanks for the puzzle. Made a change from the daily Sudoku. (KWSaint - BSc Maths a very long time ago)

Diana's death was a terrible accident

Source?

Sturridge.... He always scores against us.

One goal in his last five appearances against us...

One goal in his last five appearances against us...

He came on for the last 10 and last 20 of two of those games I believe.

Ignoring who are the home and away teams, there are actually 2,027,025 ways of pairing up the 16 teams in the 5th round draw (15 x 13 x 11 x 7 x 5 x 3)

 

I made it that the odds of the four 'big' teams all avoiding each other in the draw was 8/13 - just under 2/3. So still more likely than any of them playing each other.

 

I think that the myth around heating up the balls started in Scotland, when they were supposed to do this in the later stages of the Scottish cup to keep Rangers and Celtic apart. I think that it's just that people like conspiracy theories rather than accepting the simple truth - FA cup drawers are random, Diana's death was a terrible accident, Obama was born in the USA, etc etc. Conspiracies sell newspapers.

 

Thanks for the puzzle. Made a change from the daily Sudoku. (KWSaint - BSc Maths a very long time ago)

I only did Big v Big, Small v Small, Big v Small, Small v Big ... rather than basing it on 16 individual teams.

Big v Big is (4*4)-4, SvS is (12*12)-12, BvS (4*12)-4, SvB (12*4)-12 ... if my way is right then it gives BvB 12 times out of 240 ... I have no idea how to work out how likely BvB will come out in 16 ties.... one in twenty looks unfeasibly low but I have no idea why!

He came on for the last 10 and last 20 of two of those games I believe.

That period of the game where we seem to concede most goals...?

I only did Big v Big, Small v Small, Big v Small, Small v Big ... rather than basing it on 16 individual teams.

 

Big v Big is (4*4)-4, SvS is (12*12)-12, BvS (4*12)-4, SvB (12*4)-12 ... if my way is right then it gives BvB 12 times out of 240 ... I have no idea how to work out how likely BvB will come out in 16 ties.... one in twenty looks unfeasibly low but I have no idea why!

1/12 for BvB is intuitively too low. For example, Man C have an equal chance of playing any of the other 15 teams, 3 of which are 'big'. So 1/5 chance of Man C playing another big team

Way to work it out is to take one of the big teams. Odds of them getting a small team is 12/15. Then pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team once the first tie is fixed is 11/13. The pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team is 10/11 (2 ties already fixed).

So the chances of all of the big teams avoiding other big teams is 12/15 * 11/13 * 10/11. Which simplifies to 8/13.

Channon's recollection:

 

No way was that Mick Channon ....... 3 whole minutes and he never swore once

1/12 for BvB is intuitively too low. For example, Man C have an equal chance of playing any of the other 15 teams, 3 of which are 'big'. So 1/5 chance of Man C playing another big team

 

Way to work it out is to take one of the big teams. Odds of them getting a small team is 12/15. Then pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team once the first tie is fixed is 11/13. The pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team is 10/11 (2 ties already fixed).

 

 

So the chances of all of the big teams avoiding other big teams is 12/15 * 11/13 * 10/11. Which simplifies to 8/13.

Agree (I had to draw a picture in excel to work it out though!). For a bonus point I think I was right in saying that there are 240 possible outcomes (possible ties including H and A) and only 12 of those involve BvB; your 2,000,000 number is the number of different permutations the teams could have come out of the hat.

Have you got the odds on us staying up;)

Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

Win the FA Cup , with have won 1 in over 130 years, we have played top flight football for near on 50 seasons out of 130 odd years.

One goal in his last five appearances against us...

But what's his Minutes per Goal ratio?

West Brom struggle to sell out for Premier league games so fingers crossed they price this sensibly and make tickets £15, would be good to get a decent following up there like we had at Fulham, but considering we haven’t got close to selling out for the league game this weekend I can’t see us taking more than 2500.

Hopefully stays as a Saturday 3pm kick off.

It's not exactly a glamour tie for them either, locals are probably muttering to themselves it's only bloody Southampton so I won't bother going.

Did Sturridge play for Liverpool in their two FA Cup games?

no.

It's not exactly a glamour tie for them either, locals are probably muttering to themselves it's only bloody Southampton so I won't bother going.

They seem quite up for the cup, hopefully we feel the same, a nice distraction from the usual turgid league affairs.

If you look on their forums they're generally happy with the draw and see it as a good chance to progress. They're also saying we'll get the entire Smethwick End unless SFC only choose to take the usual league allocation as it's not possible to split it with home fans any other way. I think it was nearer 12,000 we took up there in 1976, a different era, but it would be good to see Saints fans get a bit of cup fever again and get up there in big numbers.

We've received an allocation of 2,737 tickets

Sounds a tad low for a cup game?

https://southamptonfc.com/matches/2017-18/fa-cup/west-brom-v-saints-2018-02-17/ticket-info

We've received an allocation of 2,737 tickets

 

Sounds a tad low for a cup game?

 

https://southamptonfc.com/matches/2017-18/fa-cup/west-brom-v-saints-2018-02-17/ticket-info

 

We must have only asked for the smaller allocation. Not surprising really as we play them on Saturday and not sold out yet

15% is compulsory. That would be close to 4000.

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We've received an allocation of 2,737 tickets

 

Sounds a tad low for a cup game?

 

https://southamptonfc.com/matches/2017-18/fa-cup/west-brom-v-saints-2018-02-17/ticket-info

 

We had more but it's being used to sit all our record signings.

Sturridge will put us out of both competitions. He always scores against us.

he wont play in both....

15% is compulsory. That would be close to 4000.

 

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Away teams are "entitled" to 15% however West Brom segregation means there are only 2 options 1) the standard 2737 allocation or 2) the whole end which is about 5300

I believe we're entitled to the bigger allocation if we'd asked for it but FA cup rules now mean we'd have to pay for any unsold tickets in the bigger allocation unless agreed otherwise by the club's.

We're a few hundred short of selling out for Saturday so hardly surprising we've opted for the 2737 allocation despite the decent prices. A fair % of our fans will fit into the over 60 or u23 £10 price range.

Away teams are "entitled" to 15% however West Brom segregation means there are only 2 options 1) the standard 2737 allocation or 2) the whole end which is about 5300

 

I believe we're entitled to the bigger allocation if we'd asked for it but FA cup rules now mean we'd have to pay for any unsold tickets in the bigger allocation unless agreed otherwise by the club's.

 

We're a few hundred short of selling out for Saturday so hardly surprising we've opted for the 2737 allocation despite the decent prices. A fair % of our fans will fit into the over 60 or u23 £10 price range.

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When are tv games announced. I would like to go but only feasible if it is on Saturday.

When are tv games announced. I would like to go but only feasible if it is on Saturday.

Been announced

http://www.live-footballontv.com/live-fa-cup-football-on-tv.html

Been announced

 

http://www.live-footballontv.com/live-fa-cup-football-on-tv.html

Thanks. Looks like I am going as long as I can get a ticket.

Away teams are "entitled" to 15% however West Brom segregation means there are only 2 options 1) the standard 2737 allocation or 2) the whole end which is about 5300

 

I believe we're entitled to the bigger allocation if we'd asked for it but FA cup rules now mean we'd have to pay for any unsold tickets in the bigger allocation unless agreed otherwise by the club's.

 

We're a few hundred short of selling out for Saturday so hardly surprising we've opted for the 2737 allocation despite the decent prices. A fair % of our fans will fit into the over 60 or u23 £10 price range.

Then we should have just taken on the whole allocation and make their ground look a bit empty, give us the best chance of support too.

It is only an extra £40,000- peanuts in football.

Advice please. Thinking of taking my boys to this, their first away game. Not been away myself for a while, I assume it will be standing for most of the game? If so, will my boys be able to stand on their seats (they are 12 and 10) so they can see or will the stewards tell them to get down? Want to take them but want to make sure they can see something.

Bump. Though not sure we'll get a ticket, anyone know how many we've sold?

You'll get a ticket easily I'd have thought. It will be stood all game but I think it's unlikely we'll sell out (we didn't for the league game) so there should be a section that's relatively empty where you could probably sit easily enough.

Thanks!