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Relegation - The Run In...


Saint Garrett

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if these 3 results happen we secure 17th place before the last Sunday match and our City game won't matter

 

Southampton Draws at Everton

Swansea loses against Bournemouth

 

Southampton Wins at Swansea

 

While you are almost right, actually it would still be (just) within the bounds of possibility that Swansea could still finish above us - though it would require Swansea to probably only lose by one goal in their two defeats (especially the one against us) and then for us to lose very heavily against Man City (e.g. 6-0) and Swansea to thrash Stoke (say 4-0). Nevertheless the odds of that happening would be slim enough for me to be very happy to find us going into the last game following that set of results.

 

You also have to remember that if

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While you are almost right, actually it would still be (just) within the bounds of possibility that Swansea could still finish above us - though it would require Swansea to probably only lose by one goal in their two defeats (especially the one against us) and then for us to lose very heavily against Man City (e.g. 6-0) and Swansea to thrash Stoke (say 4-0). Nevertheless the odds of that happening would be slim enough for me to be very happy to find us going into the last game following that set of results.

 

You also have to remember that if

 

Holy **** omg what do we have to remember? I need to know!

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Massive result yesterday but it’s still going to be tough. 4 points should hopefully be enough but one good thing is that we play Everton at 5.30pm so should have a better idea if a point is any good or not at kick-off.

 

The City game is a right-off so we need 4 points from our next two on the road so it’s a big ask.

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Massive result yesterday but it’s still going to be tough. 4 points should hopefully be enough but one good thing is that we play Everton at 5.30pm so should have a better idea if a point is any good or not at kick-off.

 

The City game is a right-off so we need 4 points from our next two on the road so it’s a big ask.

 

Do you mean write off pal?

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Massive result yesterday but it’s still going to be tough. 4 points should hopefully be enough but one good thing is that we play Everton at 5.30pm so should have a better idea if a point is any good or not at kick-off.

 

The City game is a right-off so we need 4 points from our next two on the road so it’s a big ask.

 

I'd always want to play first and put pressure on others. Makes it that much harder if we know we have to beat Everton.

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Wow! What an incredible weekend for Saints, bar the Palace result everything else fell into place perfectly for us.

 

We needed 9 points from 4 games, now we need 6 points from 3.

 

I will be very interested to see how Sparky sets out his team against Everton. Privately he may be happy to just take a point seeing as they are doing so well and then go all out against Swansea. That would give us 36 points and a nervy last day against City...so many possibilities though!:uhoh::smug:

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The nightmare scenario is that we need to avoid a tonking on the last day (say a 7 goal gd swing or something) and end up duly getting tonked by City.

 

Depends how big the tonking would have to be. I think we could as Puel to come back and help us park the bus.

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Hughes should ban the players from all media during the afternoon - tell them we HAVE to beat Everton cos of results elsewhere.

If the players think results are going our way, they might just show a bit of complacency, which would be bad.

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Massive result yesterday but it’s still going to be tough. 4 points should hopefully be enough but one good thing is that we play Everton at 5.30pm so should have a better idea if a point is any good or not at kick-off.

 

The City game is a right-off so we need 4 points from our next two on the road so it’s a big ask.

 

Huddersfield play on the Sunday.

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Yep, 4 pts in our next two put us up over Swansea for sure. However we may just need 3, I think its actually probable that Hud lose out and end up on 35.

 

Those scenarios still leave us sweating on the last day that Huddy don’t beat Arse and Swansea don’t beat Stoke. Mind you, I’d bite your arm off to be in that position right now.

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Yep, 4 pts in our next two put us up over Swansea for sure.
As long as three of those points come from beating Swansea. Oh and Swansea must lose to Bournemouth next week.

 

I think its actually probable that Hud lose out and end up on 35.

Hud or Swansea getting any points in the next 2 games put us in a world of hurt.

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Holy **** omg what do we have to remember? I need to know! ��

 

Haha! You have to remember to delete the sentence you started writing before you decided to structure what you are writing differently!!

 

BBC used to have a results prediction page where you put down what you think and it gives you the final league table.

Anyone know where it is as I want to really see if we have a chance only only getting 3 more points?

 

I was looking for this myself earlier and have been looking out for it for a few weeks, but it doesn't look like they are doing it this year. They usually do it with about five games to go.

 

As I haven't seen it I have been creating my own predictions by doing all the calculations myself and then displaying it all using a table which I can create at http://www.teamopolis.com/tools/bbcode-table-generator.aspx Sometimes I also paste the text into Word and use Find and Replace to change td] to th]

 

Here then is my attempt at predicting the results and final table based on Saints drawing all three of their remaining games and getting three more points:

 

[table]

[tr]

[th]Saints v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Stoke v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Swansea v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Huddersfield v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]West Ham v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Brighton v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Everton (A)[/th]

[th]2-2[/th]

[th]Palace (H)[/th]

[th]1-1[/th]

[th]Bournemouth (A)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Man City (A)[/th]

[th]0-3[/th]

[th]Leicester (A)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Man Utd (H)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Swansea (A)[/th]

[th]1-1[/th]

[th][/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Saints (H)[/th]

[th]1-1[/th]

[th]Chelsea (A)[/th]

[th]0-2[/th]

[th]Man Utd (H)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Man City (A)[/th]

[th]0-3[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Man City (H)[/th]

[th]2-2[/th]

[th]Swansea (A)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Stoke (H)[/th]

[th]2-1[/th]

[th]Arsenal (H)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Everton (H)[/th]

[th]2-1[/th]

[th]Liverpool (A)[/th]

[th]0-2[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th][/th]

[th]5-5

 

3 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]2-3

 

1 pt[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]4-4

 

4 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]1-7

 

0 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]4-5

 

3 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]1-7

 

0 pts[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]TOTAL [/th]

[th]35 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]31 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]37 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]35 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]38 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]37 pts[/th]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Final Positions for teams currently in Bottom 7 places (NB Teams in 13th/14th may actually finish above teams in higher places & I am predicting West Brom to lose both their remaining games 2-1):

 

[table]

[tr]

[th]Team[/th]

[th]P[/th]

[th]W[/th]

[th]D[/th]

[th]L[/th]

[th]F[/th]

[th]A[/th]

[th]Pts[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]West Ham[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]9[/td]

[td]11[/td]

[td]18[/td]

[td]47[/td]

[td]72[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Brighton[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]8[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]17[/td]

[td]33[/td]

[td]54[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Swansea[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]9[/td]

[td]10[/td]

[td]19[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td]56[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Saints[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]17[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[td]40[/td]

[td]59[/td]

[td]35[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Huddersfield[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]9[/td]

[td]8[/td]

[td]21[/td]

[td]28[/td]

[td]63[/td]

[td]35[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Stoke[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]19[/td]

[td]34[/td]

[td]68[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]West Brom[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]20[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]58[/td]

[td]28[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

In other words, to answer your question, yes it is possible to stay up with just three more points!

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3 wins from 3 (extremely unlikely I know, just hypothetical) and 41 points could see us finish 11th. 11th! That is INSANE bearing how **** poor our season has been. That just shows the utter guff everyone has been in the bottom half of the table this season.

 

If you offered me 4 points from the last 3, I'd take it, because I think that would be enough to overhaul Huddersfield. (Assuming they get a plucky draw from their remaining fixtures.) However, I also don't think Brighton will pick up another point, so 5 points for us would see us overhaul them on goal difference.

 

Until this weekend I've thought relegation was a cert, but Hughes has changed things for the better and we have a glimmer of hope, even at this late stage in the season. I still think relegation is more likely than survival, but the players know what they have to do to stay up, and results of other teams seem to be going our way. An unlikely win (or plucky draw) at Everton next week would make for an exciting final week. (Annoying to think had we beaten Stoke, Newcastle or West Ham in recent weeks we'd be well clear of all this. ****ing Pellegrino.)

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Haha! You have to remember to delete the sentence you started writing before you decided to structure what you are writing differently!!

 

 

 

I was looking for this myself earlier and have been looking out for it for a few weeks, but it doesn't look like they are doing it this year. They usually do it with about five games to go.

 

As I haven't seen it I have been creating my own predictions by doing all the calculations myself and then displaying it all using a table which I can create at http://www.teamopolis.com/tools/bbcode-table-generator.aspx Sometimes I also paste the text into Word and use Find and Replace to change td] to th]

 

Here then is my attempt at predicting the results and final table based on Saints drawing all three of their remaining games and getting three more points:

 

[table]

[tr]

[th]Saints v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Stoke v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Swansea v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Huddersfield v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]West Ham v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Brighton v.[/th]

[th][/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Everton (A)[/th]

[th]2-2[/th]

[th]Palace (H)[/th]

[th]1-1[/th]

[th]Bournemouth (A)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Man City (A)[/th]

[th]0-3[/th]

[th]Leicester (A)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Man Utd (H)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Swansea (A)[/th]

[th]1-1[/th]

[th][/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Saints (H)[/th]

[th]1-1[/th]

[th]Chelsea (A)[/th]

[th]0-2[/th]

[th]Man Utd (H)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Man City (A)[/th]

[th]0-3[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Man City (H)[/th]

[th]2-2[/th]

[th]Swansea (A)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Stoke (H)[/th]

[th]2-1[/th]

[th]Arsenal (H)[/th]

[th]1-2[/th]

[th]Everton (H)[/th]

[th]2-1[/th]

[th]Liverpool (A)[/th]

[th]0-2[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th][/th]

[th]5-5

 

3 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]2-3

 

1 pt[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]4-4

 

4 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]1-7

 

0 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]4-5

 

3 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]1-7

 

0 pts[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]TOTAL [/th]

[th]35 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]31 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]37 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]35 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]38 pts[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]37 pts[/th]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Final Positions for teams currently in Bottom 7 places (NB Teams in 13th/14th may actually finish above teams in higher places & I am predicting West Brom to lose both their remaining games 2-1):

 

[table]

[tr]

[th]Team[/th]

[th]P[/th]

[th]W[/th]

[th]D[/th]

[th]L[/th]

[th]F[/th]

[th]A[/th]

[th]Pts[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]West Ham[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]9[/td]

[td]11[/td]

[td]18[/td]

[td]47[/td]

[td]72[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Brighton[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]8[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]17[/td]

[td]33[/td]

[td]54[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Swansea[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]9[/td]

[td]10[/td]

[td]19[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[td]56[/td]

[td]37[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Saints[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]17[/td]

[td]15[/td]

[td]40[/td]

[td]59[/td]

[td]35[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Huddersfield[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]9[/td]

[td]8[/td]

[td]21[/td]

[td]28[/td]

[td]63[/td]

[td]35[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Stoke[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]19[/td]

[td]34[/td]

[td]68[/td]

[td]31[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]West Brom[/td]

[td]38[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]20[/td]

[td]32[/td]

[td]58[/td]

[td]28[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

In other words, to answer your question, yes it is possible to stay up with just three more points!

 

I can see stoke winning both of those games !

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I can’t. I think they’ll get 1 more point against Swansea

 

I can definitely see Stoke sneaking a win against Palace, could make it interesting as they’d go to Swansea last game still with something to play for.

As great as it was to win on Saturday I think it’s to late for us, Huddersfield will get something home to Arsenal last game, we really need Bournemouth to do us a favour against Swansea on Saturday and we are going to need to win at Swansea I think.

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There does seen to be a prevailing feeling of having done enough with that win on Saturday. Hughes needs to sit them all down, get a reality check, and realise we have to get a win and a draw at the very least from the next two. We need to go balls out for the win at Everton because I think that will be the easiest of the three. Swansea will be really up for it, an City are too good. We can do it but not if we go for a draw at Everton. Too much pressure mounting for the last games, and we won't get lucky too many times.

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Well well well, we've given ourselves a fighting chance. Palace now safe which was hardly surprising given Zaha's timely return and their fixture run in. It is GAME ON!!!

 

13 BRIGHTON - P35, GD-15, 37 points

May 4 - Manchester United (H)

May 9 - Manchester City (A)

May 13 - Liverpool (A)

 

15 WEST HAM - P35, GD-24, 35 points

May 5 - Leicester (A)

May 10 - Manchester United (H)

May 13 - Everton (H)

 

16 HUDDERSFIELD - P35, GD-29, 35 points

May 5 - Manchester City (A)

May 09 - Chelsea (A)

May 13 - Arsenal (H)

 

17 SWANSEA - P35, GD -25, 33 points

May 5 - Bournemouth (A)

May 8 - Southampton (H)

May 13 - Stoke City (H)

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

18 SOUTHAMPTON - P35, GD-19, 32 points

May 5 - Everton (A)

May 8 - Swansea City (A)

May 13 - Manchester City (H)

 

19 STOKE - P36, GD-33, 30 points

May 5 - Crystal Palace (H)

May 13 - Swansea City (A)

 

20 WEST BROM - P36, GD-24, 28 points

May 5 - Spurs (H)

May 13 - Crystal Palace (A)

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There does seen to be a prevailing feeling of having done enough with that win on Saturday. Hughes needs to sit them all down, get a reality check, and realise we have to get a win and a draw at the very least from the next two. We need to go balls out for the win at Everton because I think that will be the easiest of the three. Swansea will be really up for it, an City are too good. We can do it but not if we go for a draw at Everton. Too much pressure mounting for the last games, and we won't get lucky too many times.

 

Yeah I know what you mean. After the Chelsea game I felt we were about 90% down as I didn't see a way back after that capitulation, after this weekend's results I'd say we are still 65%-70% likely to get relegated.

 

That sounds really harsh but the reality is we are very reliant on the other teams failing and us picking up the points. It's certainly a lot more doable than it was, but still a monumental effort.

 

Beat Everton and I would put survival at 50/50. Beat both Swansea and Everton and we will have 38 points and should be safe...

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Yeah I know what you mean. After the Chelsea game I felt we were about 90% down as I didn't see a way back after that capitulation, after this weekend's results I'd say we are still 65%-70% likely to get relegated.

 

That sounds really harsh but the reality is we are very reliant on the other teams failing and us picking up the points. It's certainly a lot more doable than it was, but still a monumental effort.

 

Beat Everton and I would put survival at 50/50. Beat both Swansea and Everton and we will have 38 points and should be safe...

 

I'd say beat them both and we'd be 95% sure of playing Prem football next time. Can't rely on having to get something from the City game.

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It's unlikely but the bottom 10 could look like this going into the last day, a right royal rumble:

 

Palace 38

Southampton 38

Bournemouth 38

Watford 38

Brighton 37

Swansea 36

West Ham 35

Huddersfield 35

Stoke 33

West Brom 31

 

i really hope Huddersfield get nothing more, but fancy them at home to Arsenal on the last day, even if it is Arsene's last for them. And we get 6 points? Wow

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i really hope Huddersfield get nothing more, but fancy them at home to Arsenal on the last day, even if it is Arsene's last for them. And we get 6 points? Wow

 

Agree, you can't trust Arsenal away from home. I think we need to be at least a point above Huddersfield going into the last game to stand a decent chance of staying up. I would take them needing to beat Arsenal but if they only have to scrape a draw then we're in the poo.

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Agree, you can't trust Arsenal away from home. I think we need to be at least a point above Huddersfield going into the last game to stand a decent chance of staying up. I would take them needing to beat Arsenal but if they only have to scrape a draw then we're in the poo.

Agreed. Anything less than three points from the next two games and we are in big trouble. Get four points and we can enjoy the City game. Still think we are more likely to go down than survive - maybe 60:40. But beat either of Everton or Swansea (big if) and we should be OK.

 

It's the hope that gets you.

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One win will do it for sure. A draw or defeat at Everton doesn't really help us anyway, so I hope we go for it.

 

Course a draw helps us. Obviously a win is better, but to say a draw doesn’t really help is nonsense. Everton’s recent form is good, a draw up there will be a pretty decent result bearing in mind Huddersfield’s fixtures. If we go for it with our defence, I dread to think what’ll happen.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Yeah I know what you mean. After the Chelsea game I felt we were about 90% down as I didn't see a way back after that capitulation, after this weekend's results I'd say we are still 65%-70% likely to get relegated.

 

That sounds really harsh but the reality is we are very reliant on the other teams failing and us picking up the points. It's certainly a lot more doable than it was, but still a monumental effort.

 

Beat Everton and I would put survival at 50/50. Beat both Swansea and Everton and we will have 38 points and should be safe...

 

That sounds about right. We need to go into the last game ideally knowing that a narrow defeat will keep us up.

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There does seen to be a prevailing feeling of having done enough with that win on Saturday. Hughes needs to sit them all down, get a reality check, and realise we have to get a win and a draw at the very least from the next two. We need to go balls out for the win at Everton because I think that will be the easiest of the three. Swansea will be really up for it, an City are too good. We can do it but not if we go for a draw at Everton. Too much pressure mounting for the last games, and we won't get lucky too many times.

 

I agree with that. I don't want to see us playing for a draw, like we did vs Leicester. If we go into the Swansea game level on points or behind them, the pressure is on us. If we can get 3 points vs Everton, and assuming Swansea don't win their game against Bournemouth, we go to Swansea 2 points ahead of them. Then the pressure is all on them. They looked poor against Chelsea, yes, but they will be targeting the game with us as a 'must win'. Go for the win against Everton, there's more to win than to lose. It would set us up for the Swansea game.

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In other words, to answer your question, yes it is possible to stay up with just three more points!

Trouble is, we will only get 1 from an away draw at Swansea....and then we will all be thinking about that crazy 8 mins in the Chelsea game...to name but one cock up

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In other words, to answer your question, yes it is possible to stay up with just three more points!

It is possible for Saints to stay up with only 2 more points... emoji6.png

 

Swansea lose to Bournemouth

Swansea draw with Saints

Swansea lose to Stoke

 

Saints draw with Everton

Saints draw with Swansea

Saints lose to Man City

 

Stoke lose to Palace

Stoke beat Swansea

 

West Brom fail to beat both Spurs and Palace

 

Which would see Saints stay up, bar a big swing in goal difference...

 

17th Saints 34 points

.......

18th Swansea 34 points

19th Stoke 33 points

Edited by Matthew Le God
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It is possible for Saints to stay up with only 1 more point... [emoji6]

 

Swansea lose to Bournemouth

Swansea draw with Saints

Swansea lose to Stoke

 

Saints lose to Everton

Saints draw with Swansea

Saints lose to Man City

 

Stoke lose to Palace

Stoke beat Swansea

 

Which would see Saints stay up on goal difference, unless there is a big swing...

 

17th Saints 33 points

.......

18th Swansea 33 points

19th Stoke 33 points

 

Aren’t we a point behind Swansea, and need 1 more point than them to draw level?

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Imagine if we stayed up with 34 points! Would be amazing.

 

Just goes to show how many different combinations there are to go, even with 2 or 3 games left. I have been convinced 38 points is the magic number for a while now, but equally 34 to 37 points could well be enough.

 

GD will more than likely come into play, in that respect we are currently one of the better teams down there.

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We are still right up against it. Saturday's great win has given us a chance, but that's all it is at this stage. I think the talk that 2 or 3 points could be enough, whilst possible, is dangerous!

 

We need to go into the next 2 games firmly aiming to win both, because somebody else is going to come up with an unexpected win or draw, they always do at the end of the season when desperation takes over.

 

It would not surprise me at all if Huddersfield manage to beat Arsenal at home on the last day, which would give them 38 pts assuming they lose their other 2. Swansea have 3 winnable looking fixtures left, including Stoke at home so you would expect they should get at least 3 pts, bringing them up to at least 36.

 

So I think we need to push for 6 points and if we get 4, it MAY just be enough. Realistically can't see us getting anything from City on last day so we have to get it done in the next 2.

 

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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The one thing that does seem to be likely is that, on the final day, anything up to six clubs could be still relegated to join West Brom. It has been many years since quite that many were involved. I seem to remember fairly early on in the Premier League years a Mark Stein Chelsea goal relegating Sheffield Utd who started the final day several places above the bottom three

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