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Thread: Looks like it's time for the "relegation price 2019" thread.

  1. Default Looks like it's time for the "relegation price 2019" thread.

    For the opening gambit it may surprise the "that's it, Championship here we come" brigade to know we are around 11/2 to go down on Betfair as I type.

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    We were 17/1 before the Palace game.

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    Mini-league time.

    Can't see Fulham or Huddersfield staying: we're vying with 6 other clubs to the final spot in the bottom 3. Ok..may 5 (think Palace have enough in them).

    Squeaky bum time.

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    put money on us going down last year, narrowly avoided collecting. Won't be betting this year as I don't think we will go down. We are a better side than last year. Two poor results yes, but we were a combined total of about 3 minutes away from getting 4 points instead of 1. Yeah yeah, thats what relegation teams do blah blah. No, they don't. We are staying up.

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    Into 5/1 this morning following the Burnley result.

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    it will be between us and cardiff at the end of the season

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    it will be between us and cardiff at the end of the season
    We have Huddersfield as our last game which is a huge bonus for us I think.

    Not saying Huddersifled will be involved as they'll be gone by then, but having an already relegated team at home on the last day is pretty perfect....

    Cardiff meanwhile are at Old Trafford.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    it will be between us and cardiff at the end of the season
    Agree & what scares me is our next fixtures vs theirs.

    We have to hope Brighton can get dragged further down.

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    I topped up after the January window closed.

    Sitting with an average of 14x stake

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    Quote Originally Posted by S-Clarke View Post
    We have Huddersfield as our last game which is a huge bonus for us I think.

    Not saying Huddersifled will be involved as they'll be gone by then, but having an already relegated team at home on the last day is pretty perfect....

    Cardiff meanwhile are at Old Trafford.
    Oh, we can cock that up as well, no danger.
    Not sure we won't have gone ourselves by then anyway.
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    Last edited by Micky; 10-02-2019 at 11:02 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by S-Clarke View Post
    We have Huddersfield as our last game which is a huge bonus for us I think.

    Not saying Huddersifled will be involved as they'll be gone by then, but having an already relegated team at home on the last day is pretty perfect....

    Cardiff meanwhile are at Old Trafford.
    Given Saints form at St Mary's I'd probably prefer to be away at an already relegated Huddersfield. Either that or play the game on the Common or something.

  12. Default Looks like it's time for the "relegation price 2019" thread.

    Ladbrokes have Cardiff & Burnley at shorter odds & Newcastle as the same. Brighton look tempting at 8-1. Burnley seems a bit strange as theyíre the form team, 2-0 at OT with 5 mins left & are unbeaten in the league this year.




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    Not even that bothered anymore. With An owner like Gao it’s just a matter of when we go down not if. Wether it is this year or next doesn’t really matter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SuperSAINT View Post
    Agree & what scares me is our next fixtures vs theirs.

    We have to hope Brighton can get dragged further down.
    We (BHA) are at a crossroads. Our form is poor, but performances haven't been. Equally, we took 9 points from 3 successive games earlier in the season, and didn't deserve that either (we could have had no complaints if it had been 3). Yesterday's game against Burnley, nothing really went our way and the same goes for Watford at home where we thrashed them 0-0.

    So this crossroads - our next 5 league games are Leicester, HUDDS, Palace, CARDIFF, SOUTHAMPTON. By the time we play you we could be out of sight given your own fixture list, but if we haven't pulled away from you then we are in real trouble. At the moment, odds of 9/1 on BHA to go down look about right.

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    Cardiff are more streetwise and resilient than us; what you need in a scrap. Not looking good unless we can stop shipping goals. I think Huddersfield on the last day isn't necessarily great for a team like ours. we need to be out of the picture by then. Too many Sunderland similarities

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    Quote Originally Posted by DT View Post
    Cardiff are more streetwise and resilient than us; what you need in a scrap. Not looking good unless we can stop shipping goals. I think Huddersfield on the last day isn't necessarily great for a team like ours. we need to be out of the picture by then. Too many Sunderland similarities
    No, Cardiff are sh*te and if we hadn’t gifted them 6 points on a plate they’d be well adrift with the bottom 2. A mediocre striker would have put 2 past them on Saturday but we didn’t have one and the goals we conceded were just as poor.

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    Still so so angry about Saturday and how we ****ed up so badly. We have royally screwed up in the transfer windows previously gone, so much so that this transfer window meant we were impotent.
    We must have the weakest strike force in the whole premiership. 2 strikers that would bankrupt the NHS, 1 that should be reported to trading standards making a living as a striker and 2 that are just not ready for the premiership ready.
    How the hell are we supposed to win games?? The rest of the side is good enough to stay up IF we has a bloody striker.....we had no one on Saturday!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post
    No, Cardiff are sh*te and if we hadn’t gifted them 6 points on a plate they’d be well adrift with the bottom 2. A mediocre striker would have put 2 past them on Saturday but we didn’t have one and the goals we conceded were just as poor.
    Agree - they were absolutely rubbish on Saturday, but still outwitted us. Matched us up and stopped the wide men (Valery / Bertrand) really affecting the game, and we obviously had no threat in the middle third of the pitch apart from Redmond.

    Even if we nick 2 draws which should have happened from those two games things would be looking a lot more rosey. We'd be sat on 26 points and them on 21, with the bottom three pretty much cut adrift. But this always seems to happen with one of the teams who looked dead certs for relegation, their form picks up and they stay up, and another drops like a stone and ends up being well amongst it, (could well be Brighton this year).

    There is a long way to go, but we could do with a draw or two in the next 4 with us beating Fulham. Get 4/5 points from the next 4 games and I think it's not looking too bad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BARCELONASAINT View Post
    Still so so angry about Saturday and how we ****ed up so badly. We have royally screwed up in the transfer windows previously gone, so much so that this transfer window meant we were impotent.
    We must have the weakest strike force in the whole premiership. 2 strikers that would bankrupt the NHS, 1 that should be reported to trading standards making a living as a striker and 2 that are just not ready for the premiership ready.
    How the hell are we supposed to win games?? The rest of the side is good enough to stay up IF we has a bloody striker.....we had no one on Saturday!
    This. Which makes shipping out Gabbi without a replacement ****ing suicidal.

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    Just think, Jack Stephens directly contributed to 3 dropped points in the last kick of two consecutive games.
    3 points against 2 direct rivals

    mental

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Just think, Jack Stephens directly contributed to 3 dropped points in the last kick of two consecutive games.
    3 points against 2 direct rivals

    mental
    Ralph should have played Yoshi in the second. Mistake. Unless thereís something weird going on with him again.


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    Quote Originally Posted by BARCELONASAINT View Post
    Still so so angry about Saturday and how we ****ed up so badly. We have royally screwed up in the transfer windows previously gone, so much so that this transfer window meant we were impotent.
    We must have the weakest strike force in the whole premiership. 2 strikers that would bankrupt the NHS, 1 that should be reported to trading standards making a living as a striker and 2 that are just not ready for the premiership ready.
    How the hell are we supposed to win games?? The rest of the side is good enough to stay up IF we has a bloody striker.....we had no one on Saturday!
    This. We needed a striker and an attacking midfielder/winger minimum during the window. I don’t think the defence is that bad, it’s just when you offer so little threat going forward you’re going to end up under pressure and any mistake is costly.

    It’s scary to think how toothless we would be if Redmond gets injured.

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    Might Obafemi be back for the next game? Could he play a big part in our run in?


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    Out to 6/1 on the back of last night's pleasing results.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DT View Post
    Might Obafemi be back for the next game? Could he play a big part in our run in?
    He trained in Tenerife & is available for selection.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tisspahars View Post
    Out to 6/1 on the back of last night's pleasing results.
    I'm not expecting us to get anything against Arsenal but the pleasing thing about last night is Cardiff / Fulham neither gain points or pull away from us respectively.

    What it does it really puts into focus the importance (& pressure) on the Fulham game.

    (Annoying how they get 2 days rest on us).

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    Remember the good old days when we were looking at European qualification permutations?

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    Wrong thread
    Last edited by Saint Albert; 24-02-2019 at 01:51 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Munster View Post
    Remember the good old days when we were looking at European qualification permutations?
    To be fair, if you've supported us for any amount of time, you know that we are normally looking down, not up.

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  30. #30

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    Really interesting and useful statistical model of relegation probabilities, really nicely presented (unusually for stattos.....). Cardiff 56% likely to be relegated, with us 18% likely:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...remier-league/

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    Brighton certainly needs to be in the relegation debate. Out of their remaining 12 matches, they could realistically lose 10 (I gave them wins over Hudds and Cardif although even thats up for debate). We play them at the end of March, a huge game that could seal their fate. I think the 3 going down are:

    Hudds
    Fulham
    Brighton

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    Over the past twenty years or so goal difference has usually mirrored league placings over the whole season
    on this basis I think we'll just about be ok, barring important injuries or suspensions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cambsaint View Post
    Over the past twenty years or so goal difference has usually mirrored league placings over the whole season
    on this basis I think we'll just about be ok, barring important injuries or suspensions.
    I've heard there is also a correlation with "number of points", on that basis things are looking a bit worrying.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Just think, Jack Stephens directly contributed to 3 dropped points in the last kick of two consecutive games.
    3 points against 2 direct rivals

    mental
    Whatís even more crazy is he came into the team when Van Dijk got injured and had pretty much stayed there. He is Van Dijks replacement however the club want to spin it. One of the worst centre halves weíve ever had replaces one of the best, you canít make it up. Yet we should keep on believing the party line that we HAVE to sell players before we can buy new ones. Anyway, at least we saved paying agents fees out for Van Dijks replacement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    Not even that bothered anymore. With An owner like Gao it’s just a matter of when we go down not if. Wether it is this year or next doesn’t really matter.
    Thatís about the size of it mate. £46m of profit fron transfers in the last 5 years, the only club currently on the premier league to be in profit. Some of the lowest agent fees in that period and still some fans defend Shanghai Leisure Holdings.

    I remember in Lowes era then northam end chanting ďspend some f*cking moneyĒ after another profitable sell. Time our fans showed that same backbone now. Itís when not if under Gao and we wonít be coming back any time soon either. Rumour has it the dwarf ***** didnít even know you could be relegated from the premier league when he bought us, sums him up if true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    That’s about the size of it mate. £46m of profit fron transfers in the last 5 years, the only club currently on the premier league to be in profit. Some of the lowest agent fees in that period and still some fans defend Shanghai Leisure Holdings.

    I remember in Lowes era then northam end chanting “spend some f*cking money” after another profitable sell. Time our fans showed that same backbone now. It’s when not if under Gao and we won’t be coming back any time soon either. Rumour has it the dwarf ***** didn’t even know you could be relegated from the premier league when he bought us, sums him up if true.
    The "didn't know you could be relegated" story is probably recycled from the venkys at blackburn. It was doing the rounds way back then.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    Thatís about the size of it mate. £46m of profit fron transfers in the last 5 years, the only club currently on the premier league to be in profit. Some of the lowest agent fees in that period and still some fans defend Shanghai Leisure Holdings.

    I remember in Lowes era then northam end chanting ďspend some f*cking moneyĒ after another profitable sell. Time our fans showed that same backbone now. Itís when not if under Gao and we wonít be coming back any time soon either. Rumour has it the dwarf ***** didnít even know you could be relegated from the premier league when he bought us, sums him up if true.

    Nah the time to do something was 3-4 years ago when all this started. When the majority were praising Les Reed and talking about champions league and top 4


    Saints fans are typically about 2-3 years too late and quite frankly too weak to do anything about it anyway.

    We will be politely clapping as we drop through the leagues (again)

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    This season is another weird one. Personally I think this mob led by this manager will have just about enough to stay up THIS season. Next season, if this promised summer revamp doesn't happen with some decent money spent, we'll do down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by InvictaSaint View Post
    Really interesting and useful statistical model of relegation probabilities, really nicely presented (unusually for stattos.....). Cardiff 56% likely to be relegated, with us 18% likely:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...remier-league/
    Not sure I agree with some of their suppositions, they certainly shouldn't be going anywhere near a bookmaker. It is a bit like timeform in horse racing, if it was that easy we would all be rich. They have Saints on 38 points, so that is 14 points from from the next 12 games. That is 3 wins and 2 draws. I'd like to think they will come from Arsenal, Fulham, Brighton, Wolves, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Huddersfield but it would need a dramatic turnaround on the seasons form to achieve that. I really cannot see that happening as we have no new players to provide an option.

    What is required is a backs against the wall first don't lose mentality. Aim to beat Bournemouth, Fulham, Huddersfield, and scrape another 5 draws.

    Looking to the positive Saints's away form is way better than their home form. This bodes well for Brighton, Newcastle, and West Ham games.

    The Watford game will be tagged on to the end of the season and they will be on their holidays.

    Some big games this week Cardiff/ Everton, Newcastle / Burnley, Leicester/ Brighton

    Things will be a lot clearer by next week that is for certain.

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    Prices still settling down post Arsenal but we are around 4/1 to go down. Very much a weekend of two halves - Friday night was great, but since then, not so much......One point to raise ahead of Wednesday, if we fail to win I reckon we will still be comfortably odds against to go down whereas I suspect the mood on here will be that we are finished, washed up, all hope extinguished, downright gone. Fingers crossed we won't find out.

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    And all the way back out to 6/1 following tonight's favourable results. If (yeah, I know) we can take advantage of this latest opportunity tomorrow, I think we'll be out to double figures...

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    We will draw against Fulham, lose our last 10 games and stay up.

  43. #43

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    Relegation could possibly be the best 5hing to happen to us in terms of ownership. I’m sure having a Championship club doesn’t fit in to whatever vision Gao had for us as his plaything and might convince him to sell. The only concern then is who he decides to sell us to.

    That said, I’ve done a results predictor for the remainder of the season with extremely conservative results for a Saints and have us finishing 16th above Burnley and with Cardiff taking the final relegation spot.

  44. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by sambosa75 View Post
    Relegation could possibly be the best 5hing to happen to us in terms of ownership. Iím sure having a Championship club doesnít fit in to whatever vision Gao had for us as his plaything and might convince him to sell. The only concern then is who he decides to sell us to.

    That said, Iíve done a results predictor for the remainder of the season with extremely conservative results for a Saints and have us finishing 16th above Burnley and with Cardiff taking the final relegation spot.
    Relegation would be a financial disaster for a club like Saints with a big wage bill but relatively few stable assets.

    The value of the club would plummet so Gao wouldnt sell as he would lose so much money. He would more likely sell some players and then see if we could get promoted with a cheap squad.

    A far better scenario would be to scrape staying up and have Hasenhuttl sort the squad out in the summer. I trust him, he knows what he need and don't need.

    The club have already made clear they want to strip out the deadwood, replace with Academy players like Obafemi, Slattery, Valery etc and then have cash for a couple of game changer types. A good plan IMO, but obviously doing it is harder.

    All relegation does is make the aim to get back into the PL. So why leave in the first place?

  45. #45

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    The bookies have overestimated us for the last couple of seasons though in the pricing of nearly every game. Realistically this morning we shoukd be no bigger than 2/1 for relegation. You can back both outcomes tonight of either draw or Fulham at 10/11. Should be easy money as we've failed to win any of these sort of games for the last 2/3 seasons

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  46. #46

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dusic View Post
    Relegation would be a financial disaster for a club like Saints with a big wage bill but relatively few stable assets.

    The value of the club would plummet so Gao wouldnt sell as he would lose so much money. He would more likely sell some players and then see if we could get promoted with a cheap squad.

    A far better scenario would be to scrape staying up and have Hasenhuttl sort the squad out in the summer. I trust him, he knows what he need and don't need.

    The club have already made clear they want to strip out the deadwood, replace with Academy players like Obafemi, Slattery, Valery etc and then have cash for a couple of game changer types. A good plan IMO, but obviously doing it is harder.

    All relegation does is make the aim to get back into the PL. So why leave in the first place?
    I can't buy in to it ruining a club like ours. We must be in rude financial health what with all the player sales and seeming refusal to spend anywhere near a commensurate amount on re-strengthening. What we do have though is a squad full of dead wood who would see playing in the Championship as below them who would agitate for moves. The same players who whilst we are a Premier League club are quite happy collecting their wages and applying minimum effort. A bit like the owner. Keen to reap the rewards of owning a Premier League side but unwilling to do what it takes to progress us. I must admit the hiring of Hassenhuttl makes me think there may be hope for him yet. I don't see why he would have come here unless significant funds were promised to him should he keep us up but until that happens I'll remain sceptical.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tisspahars View Post
    And all the way back out to 6/1 following tonight's favourable results. If (yeah, I know) we can take advantage of this latest opportunity tomorrow, I think we'll be out to double figures...
    Not quite double figures but we are all the way out to 9/1 to go down. I think that's a little on the high side, the large number on here who think it is a toss of the coin job even after last night's win presumably find it completely mindblowing......

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    Despite losing yesterday, the manner of that defeat combined with the Cardiff result sees us out to 10/1 this morning.

  49. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by tisspahars View Post
    Despite losing yesterday, the manner of that defeat combined with the Cardiff result sees us out to 10/1 this morning.
    We wonít go down but that is mad considering how perilous our position

  50. #50

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    Quote Originally Posted by tisspahars View Post
    Despite losing yesterday, the manner of that defeat combined with the Cardiff result sees us out to 10/1 this morning.
    That is very good value.

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