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Thread: The Run In Thread

  1. #1

    Default The Run In Thread

    Possibly a bit too early, but worth keeping an eye on fixtures. Home games in bold.


    Saints - 36 Points
    April 20 - Newcastle v Southampton
    April 23 - Watford v Southampton
    April 27 - Southampton v Bournemouth
    May 04 - West Ham United v Southampton
    May 12 - Southampton v Huddersfield


    Brighton - 33 Points
    April 20 - Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    April 23 - Spurs v Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    April 27 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Newcastle United
    May 04 - Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion FC
    May 12 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Manchester City


    Cardiff - 31 Points
    April 20 — Cardiff City v Liverpool
    April 27 — Fulham v Cardiff City
    May 4 — Cardiff City v Crystal Palace
    May 12 — Manchester United v Cardiff City
    Last edited by Saint Garrett; 17-04-2019 at 06:49 AM.

  2. #2

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    Need to consider Brighton and Burnleys fixtures too, both still in the mix. Think Palace will be ok

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    Goal difference is always a good indicator of calibre of team...and a good predictor of final position (not always yes yes). On current form Brighton have to be part of the mix. Newcastle have home form which is enough to keep them up IMO and Palace have goal-scorers and an organised defence. On goal difference only Cardiff and Burnley are teams above us with worse goal differences. We have to pray Burnley's recovery bubble bursts although that doesn't look like happening. So Cardiff are the ones we have to stay ahead of...underlines again what a disastrous result Saturday was.
    As has been said many times - the board are culpable of gross negligence in not bringing in more goal-scoring power in the January transfer window. We need a couple of shock results - like a fluky win against Arsenal at the Emirates!

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    There's at least 20 points we should take from those games. But then we 'should' have beaten Cardiff...

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    Newcastle wont go down. They have by far the better set of fixtures

  6. #6

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    We need to win those four away games against the lesser teams otherwise we are in serious trouble.
    Forget about the home games as we will scrape two draws out of it because our home form is dibolical.

  7. #7

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    Did one of those predictor thingies because i was bored and had us coming 16th, was surprised how hard Burnley's run in was to be honest.

  8. #8

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    Cardiff's two home games versus Watford and Everton will be key.

    We need their momentum to stall pretty quickly.

    Fulham and absolute must win for us. Lose or draw and we will need to beat either Arsenal, Spurs or United (at least).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pilchards View Post
    We need to win those four away games against the lesser teams otherwise we are in serious trouble.
    Forget about the home games as we will scrape two draws out of it because our home form is dibolical.
    someone said about a month ago we only needed to win one more game
    horseshyt

  10. Default

    Newcastle arguably have the 'easiest' run in (playing a chunk of relegation candidates), and Burnley the trickiest.

    For us, there are four key fixtures, Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (A), and Huddersfield (H). All winnable, in theory. Throw in a couple of draws against the mid-table teams, and we should be okay

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    Quote Originally Posted by Donatello View Post
    Newcastle arguably have the 'easiest' run in (playing a chunk of relegation candidates), and Burnley the trickiest.

    For us, there are four key fixtures, Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (A), and Huddersfield (H). All winnable, in theory. Throw in a couple of draws against the mid-table teams, and we should be okay
    With all due respect I thought we were currently in the middle of a set of 'key features games', and we ain't exactly doing well. The bottom line is we have to start winning games, any games. Time for some of the players to step up and start delivering, we can't rely on so called 'key games'.

  12. Default

    EDIT: damn quoted the wrong post

  13. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Donatello View Post
    Newcastle arguably have the 'easiest' run in (playing a chunk of relegation candidates), and Burnley the trickiest.

    For us, there are four key fixtures, Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (A), and Huddersfield (H). All winnable, in theory. Throw in a couple of draws against the mid-table teams, and we should be okay

    Key games seems to be the ones where we **** the bed. We need wins and fast, draws not enough. Hopefully some of those fixtures that we aren't expected to win are where we grab maximum points.

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    I think it'll come down to the last day between us and Cardiff, and I think we'll be in the bottom 3 beforehand. So would need us to beat an already relegated Huddersfield and hope United do the job against Cardiff...

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by LGTL View Post
    I think it'll come down to the last day between us and Cardiff, and I think we'll be in the bottom 3 beforehand. So would need us to beat an already relegated Huddersfield and hope United do the job against Cardiff...
    And then we can look forward to yet another season of the same. Nothing is going to change with this useless owner and board. Relegation might be the one thing that will bring change.

  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    someone said about a month ago we only needed to win one more game
    horseshyt
    This season you only need to win five games and you're safe. FACT. Someone's mate said so and he does the numbers for a betting company so he would know.

  17. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Donatello View Post
    Newcastle arguably have the 'easiest' run in (playing a chunk of relegation candidates), and Burnley the trickiest.

    For us, there are four key fixtures, Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (A), and Huddersfield (H). All winnable, in theory. Throw in a couple of draws against the mid-table teams, and we should be okay
    Perfect time to play West Ham and Bournemouth with both likely to be in mid table obscurity. I back us to get 4 points from that

  18. #18

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    Whilst people will mention Burnley, Brighton, Palace, Newcastle I think its essentially between us and Cardiff for the final relegation spot.

    This week has been an absolute killer for us.

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    Since that dope Stephens put his arm in the air it's all gone to pot.

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Donatello View Post
    Newcastle arguably have the 'easiest' run in (playing a chunk of relegation candidates), and Burnley the trickiest.

    For us, there are four key fixtures, Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Newcastle (A), and Huddersfield (H). All winnable, in theory. Throw in a couple of draws against the mid-table teams, and we should be okay
    All winnable, trouble is we **** winnable games up.

    We won't beat Fulham, can't see us beating Newcastle either tbh.

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    Brighton have some very winnable home games left, can’t see them not getting enough points, they tend to be quite strong at home.

    Think this January’s window has f*cked us to be honest. The club thought they had hired a managerial genius so decided to pocket some cash and it has back-fired.
    Last edited by aintforever; 11-02-2019 at 08:45 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by aintforever View Post
    Brighton have some very winnable home games left, can’t see them not getting enough points, they tend to be quite strong at home.

    Think this January’s window has f*cked us to be honest. The club thought they had hired a managerial genius so decided to pocket some cash and it has back-fired.
    What you said (I think) is about right.
    May as well go down now as it is only a matter of time with our current owner.

  23. Default

    Every successful relegation battle I’ve seen, and it must be over a dozen there’s always results and weekends when you think “that’s it, we’re done”. We gave up 4 points to Stoke last season, this corresponding weekend last season we lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool and then went 7 games without a win, including 2 disgraceful performances at West Ham and Newcastle. We still stayed up, despite it looking increasingly unlikely. I think we’re a better side and have a better manager than last season, and we look a decent threat away from home.

    It’s a 12 game season and I’d back us to get 1 more point than Cardiff do. Our last 8 look tasty, with only Liverpool a real toughie & Watford, Bournemouth, West Ham, Wolves with nothing really to play for. And of course there’s Huddersfield last day.


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    Wolves score

    Insurance bets come in

  25. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by hackedoff View Post
    And then we can look forward to yet another season of the same. Nothing is going to change with this useless owner and board. Relegation might be the one thing that will bring change.
    If by "change" you mean very possible administration and plummeting down the leagues, I agree.

  26. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    Every successful relegation battle I’ve seen, and it must be over a dozen there’s always results and weekends when you think “that’s it, we’re done”. We gave up 4 points to Stoke last season, this corresponding weekend last season we lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool and then went 7 games without a win, including 2 disgraceful performances at West Ham and Newcastle. We still stayed up, despite it looking increasingly unlikely. I think we’re a better side and have a better manager than last season, and we look a decent threat away from home.

    It’s a 12 game season and I’d back us to get 1 more point than Cardiff do. Our last 8 look tasty, with only Liverpool a real toughie & Watford, Bournemouth, West Ham, Wolves with nothing really to play for. And of course there’s Huddersfield last day.
    Good points, except we do have a weaker squad. Minus Gabbi, Cedric and Tadic in particular. A much better manager of course, but we are reliant on Ings getting (and staying) fit soon, and other key players (Redmond in particular) not getting injured.

  27. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Munster View Post
    Good points, except we do have a weaker squad. Minus Gabbi, Cedric and Tadic in particular. A much better manager of course, but we are reliant on Ings getting (and staying) fit soon, and other key players (Redmond in particular) not getting injured.
    I know Gabbi got the Swansea winner, but he really didn’t contribute much else. If we say Ings will play half the remaining games, he’ll give us more in those 6 games than Gabbi did in the run in last season. He’ll get an important winner by the end of the season (as a Gabbi did at Swansea) no doubt about it. JWP, Romeu, PEH and Redmond are in far better form this season, Armstrong will contribute, maybe not as much as Tadic, but he’ll do a job. Remember we had Wes last season as well, Vesty is far better the last few weeks. Overall the improvement in certain players, and the contributions from Ings and Armstrong will easily make up for the loss of Tadic, Cedric & Gabbi.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    I know Gabbi got the Swansea winner, but he really didn’t contribute much else. If we say Ings will play half the remaining games, he’ll give us more in those 6 games than Gabbi did in the run in last season. He’ll get an important winner by the end of the season (as a Gabbi did at Swansea) no doubt about it. JWP, Romeu, PEH and Redmond are in far better form this season, Armstrong will contribute, maybe not as much as Tadic, but he’ll do a job. Remember we had Wes last season as well, Vesty is far better the last few weeks. Overall the improvement in certain players, and the contributions from Ings and Armstrong will easily make up for the loss of Tadic, Cedric & Gabbi.


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    I don't share your confidence with any of that, but I bloody hope you are right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    Newcastle wont go down. They have by far the better set of fixtures
    Yes, they've got a lot of their really tough fixtures out of the way already.

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    The simple fact is that we our games left include home games against the two most likely to be bottom two, 2 away games against team who are relegation rivals, 2 home and 2 away against mid table teams with nothing to play for. Our run in is okay, if we can’t get 14 points from those 8 games we deserve to go down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    The simple fact is that we our games left include home games against the two most likely to be bottom two, 2 away games against team who are relegation rivals, 2 home and 2 away against mid table teams with nothing to play for. Our run in is okay, if we can’t get 14 points from those 8 games we deserve to go down.
    Sounds plausible. Trouble is we deserve to go down after some of the diabolical results we’ve witnessed this season even after Ralph has been in place. If I were a betting man, I’d put good money on us going down. The Board have completely let the club and it’s supporters down once again by ignoring the warning signs and complacently not signing a decent striker.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    The simple fact is that we our games left include home games against the two most likely to be bottom two, 2 away games against team who are relegation rivals, 2 home and 2 away against mid table teams with nothing to play for. Our run in is okay, if we can’t get 14 points from those 8 games we deserve to go down.
    We can't.
    We won't.
    We do.
    We will.

  33. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    The simple fact is that we our games left include home games against the two most likely to be bottom two, 2 away games against team who are relegation rivals, 2 home and 2 away against mid table teams with nothing to play for. Our run in is okay, if we can’t get 14 points from those 8 games we deserve to go down.
    Bournemouth @home and WHU away right at the end of the season play into the hands of “on the beach, we’re safe” so really we should pick up points there

  34. #34

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    I can definitely see Cardiff getting points in their next 2 games both at home against Watford and Everton, both sides capable of rolling over.
    Bound to be a few twists but I've got a feeling we'll go this year.
    Having had a long break between games we face 3 in 7 days , can see Ralph saving players for the Fulham game and mixing it up in likely defeats away at Arsenal and Man Utd, especially if Ings is still out for all 3.

  35. #35

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    I'd also reckon we are probably stronger away with our set up, we have performed better against team that try to play us, i.e Arsenal, Everton etc. hopefully we'll have an improved performance against West Ham as well who are very beatable. Getting Ings is key.

    I don't really care about anyone else, more than enough winnable games there.

    I'd also reckon Brighton might be worrying a bit, they are going into poor form at the wrong time.

    You especially have to look at those last 5 all winnable IMO. Plus I fancy us for upsetting another top 6 team, the way we play suits someone that attacks us and I think we could surprise one of those teams there, Utd and Arsenal are the likeliest candidates for bonus points, also maybe Spurs at home.
    Last edited by tajjuk; 12-02-2019 at 07:07 AM.

  36. Default The Run In Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by wild-saint View Post
    Bournemouth @home and WHU away right at the end of the season play into the hands of “on the beach, we’re safe” so really we should pick up points there
    Defo. Add Wolves & Watford to that then Huddersfield home last day. If we get past spurs game within 3 or 4 points of Cardiff, Brighton or Burnley, we should be fine.

    Post 9/3 we have Liverpool left.

    Burnley have Liverpool, Chelsea, Man C and Arsenal, 3 of their last 4 against top 6 sides, with a trip to Goodison for Everton’s last home game the one in between.

    Cardiff have Chelsea, Man C, Liverpool & Man Utd

    Brighton have Spurs, Arsenal & Man C. (And more importantly us).
    .

    If we can’t get out of that, we really do deserve to go down.


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    Last edited by Lord Duckhunter; 12-02-2019 at 09:59 AM.

  37. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    Defo. Add Wolves & Watford to that then Huddersfield home last day. If we get past spurs game within 3 or 4 points of Cardiff, Brighton or Burnley, we should be fine.

    Post 9/3 we have Liverpool left.

    Burnley have Liverpool, Chelsea, Man C and Arsenal, 3 of their last 4 against top 6 sides, with a trip to Goodison for Everton’s last home game the one in between.

    Cardiff have Chelsea, Man C, Liverpool & Man Utd

    Brighton have Spurs, Arsenal & Man C. (And more importantly us).
    .

    If we can’t get out of that, we really do deserve to go down.


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    its the getting past Spurs and only being 3/4 points behind Cardiff, Burnley or Brighton that concerns me most otherwise yeah fair enough.

  38. #38

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    There is certainly a real chance of us being "cut adrift" after the next four, so it's imperative that we beat Fulham now, and nick a point or two from the other 3 games.

    You'd like to think everyone won't go and pick up in form over the next few weeks - Burnley seem to have sorted themselves out so don't see them being in it tbh.

  39. #39

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    Picking up just 2 points from the last 3 (6-pointer) games is pretty much disastrous, 3 of the next 4 are just about write-offs but even Fulham is a real pressure game now. They'll be looking at their fixtures, our shortcomings, and see this as game to pick up points. Let's hope we've got a goal-scorer back for this.

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    With the current prospects I believe it will be us or Cardiff who go down. Watching Saints as I have since the late '50s I see a pattern emerging where we struggle much to achieve little. If the achievable points are actually gained then we have to look at others failing. Like so many posters have already said Our Board has to accept responsibility for our plight but Ralph's selection last Saturday was also lacking. If we do scrape through then there will be a massive clear out in the summer but Mr. Goa has to put his hands into his pocket too.It will be interesting to see who is in our 'retained list' come July whatever division we are in. I haven't given up but the future looks doubtful to say the least.

  41. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    I know Gabbi got the Swansea winner, but he really didn’t contribute much else. If we say Ings will play half the remaining games, he’ll give us more in those 6 games than Gabbi did in the run in last season. He’ll get an important winner by the end of the season (as a Gabbi did at Swansea) no doubt about it. JWP, Romeu, PEH and Redmond are in far better form this season, Armstrong will contribute, maybe not as much as Tadic, but he’ll do a job. Remember we had Wes last season as well, Vesty is far better the last few weeks. Overall the improvement in certain players, and the contributions from Ings and Armstrong will easily make up for the loss of Tadic, Cedric & Gabbi.
    I don't share your confidence with any of that, but I bloody hope you are right.

  42. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by wild-saint View Post
    Bournemouth @home and WHU away right at the end of the season play into the hands of “on the beach, we’re safe” so really we should pick up points there
    Indeed Watford away is on FA Cup quarter final weekend so every chance that will be moved later in the season and fall in the same category.

    Would also suggest, as frustrating as the weekends result was, Fulham, Bournemouth and Huddersfield are all likely to be easier sides to break down at home than either Palace or Cardiff were.

  43. Default

    I did a predictor on excel for the remaining games for each team just now, and I have Cardiff going down, but Saints just above them.
    Probably because I saw how poor Cardiff were on Saturday and I can't see other opponents making it easy for them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Huffton View Post
    There's at least 20 points we should take from those games. But then we 'should' have beaten Cardiff...
    Conservatively I get 14points form that, giving us 38points. Be unlucky to go down with that. I also think that Ralph will get a few extra.

  45. #45

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    Decent write up on it here...

    https://www.skysports.com/football/n...-league-status

    The points required for survival has dropped significantly in recent seasons - 34 points would have been enough to stay up last season, while over the last five campaigns an average of 35.4 points was sufficient. Compare that to the previous 18 seasons (1995-2013) when an average of 36.7 points was required to survive.

    But only one team in Premier League history has stayed up on 34 points. In 2004/05, Bryan Robson's West Brom survived with that total when a final-day win for any of the three relegated clubs - Crystal Palace, Norwich and Southampton - would have seen them avoid the drop instead.

    Burnley's current run of seven games unbeaten may prove to be crucial as they look to have the trickiest run-in of any of the teams threatened by relegation. The Clarets' future opponents have an average of 1.63 points per game and they are the only team among the bottom eight who still have five games left against the top six, including visits to Liverpool and Chelsea.

    Huddersfield's fixtures also look tough - they have trips to Tottenham and Liverpool to come in April and are the only Premier League team without a single remaining home game against a team in the bottom eight.

    In fact, the greatest escape in Premier League history would be required for Huddersfield to extend their two-season stay in the top division. There is no precedent for a team surviving from Huddersfield's current situation of 14 points from safety with 12 games left. However, one more point will at least see them avoid the ignominy of equalling Derby's all-time low of 11 Premier League points, set in 2007/08.

    Fulham's current position of 19th and eight points from safety also looks dire, although there are one or two instances in Premier League history of teams rescuing themselves from similar situations, most notably West Ham in 2006/07 who were 10 points from safety in mid-March. It took a Carlos Tevez-inspired run of seven wins from their final nine games to get out of trouble.

    The head to head table is pretty damning, and pretty much shows why we are still in the sh1t.

  46. #46

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    The H2H is why we will go down. You have to beat the teams around you.

  47. #47

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    IMO its a shootout between us and Cardiff.

    Burnley have turned the corner.

    Newcastle and Brighton have a great run of fixtures.

    Palace are solid

    If Cardiff pick up 4 or 6 points from their next two home games then we will be in a very poor position.

    Fulham at home is an absolute must win and if they somehow do have a revival then it would be a disaster for us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dusic View Post
    IMO its a shootout between us and Cardiff.

    Burnley have turned the corner.

    Newcastle and Brighton have a great run of fixtures.

    Palace are solid

    If Cardiff pick up 4 or 6 points from their next two home games then we will be in a very poor position.

    Fulham at home is an absolute must win and if they somehow do have a revival then it would be a disaster for us.
    don't you understand, we are top 6 in the form table (or something)



    after this window and the poor performances in the last 3 games (new manager bounce and all that), I think we are going down. We are a terrible premier league club these days...
    We made an already weak squad, weaker. And people are applauding the club for it.

    Bizarre

  49. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    don't you understand, we are top 6 in the form table (or something)



    after this window and the poor performances in the last 3 games (new manager bounce and all that), I think we are going down. We are a terrible premier league club these days...
    We made an already weak squad, weaker. And people are applauding the club for it.

    Bizarre
    What's bizarre is your meltdown, every post is suicidal do you need to talk to someone?
    Things are far from ideal and we are in trouble but prior to Cardiff we were unbeaten in 6 also wins v Arsenal, Leicester, Huddersfield and Everton.
    Will we go....maybe but relax you seem in trouble....just be grateful you dont contribute to Hoedts wages or the rest like us mug ST holders.
    The academy is doing well.

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  50. #50

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    In the current six game form table we are 9th but the problem is Burnley are 5th, Newcastle 11th and Cardiff 13th.

    Even bigger problem, before Arsenal away, is the last 3 game form table:

    Cardiff - 5th
    Burnley - 8th
    Newcastle - 10th
    Saints - 16th

    These 3 games were supposed to be the ones that hauled us to virtual safety but we ****ed it up unfortunately.

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