The Run In Thread

Such a difference, with Hughes it was a case of hoping we’d win but not really seeing how we’d be able to do it knowing the inevitable first **** up would pretty much finish us off. With Hasenhuttl there’s real belief that we have a game plan and will make chances and a set back won’t completely sink us. I was very relaxed watching the Brighton game knowing we were making the right kind of attacks that would eventually lead to a goal.

Hughes: 9pts from 14 games = 0.64pts/game

Hasenhuttl: 24pts from 16 games = 1.5pts/game

[nb: one other gave it was Kelvin in charge]

We’d have to drop right off to be relegated. Just shows how terrible Hughes was too. At that rate, if we’d started the season with Ralph we’d could have 46pts. Good enough for 9th in the current table.

The weekend of 13th looks to be key us home too Wolves who were brilliant against Utd but gash against Burnley. Cardiff v Burnley.

Bournemouth have lost 10 out of 11 away let’s hope this weekend their home form gets a win.

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I think the last spot is looking like Burnley or Cardiff. At the moment Burnley have the whip hand but if they lose to Bournemouth (very possible) and Cardiff beat them then my money would be on Cardiff surviving.

There would be 2 points between them, Cardiff would have 1 more game to play and would also have the wind in their sails.

Burnley's last 4 fixtures look like yielding 1 point at most whereas I can see a dogged Cardiff grinding 4-6 out of their last 5.

Either way another 2 wins and we are completely safe. A win against Pool would all but seal our safety and we could watch the scrap without any fear.

36 points will be enough, one more win. Time to relax, puff on a cigar, sip a scotch and close the book on a very forgettable season.

Conservatively I get 14points form that, giving us 38points. Be unlucky to go down with that. I also think that Ralph will get a few extra.

See no reason to update this post from the 12th Feb.

Average points per game of our opponents is 1.32 so that means ours works out at 1.62 so should make 11.76.

But we all know that means sod all

Burnley must beat Cardiff, as thereafter their fixtures are a nightmare.

I think they will, and in turn will pretty much relegate Cardiff.

These last 6 points have made us pretty much safe I think. Still a bit squeeky bum, but it would take an almightly turn around to swing it now. Cardiff are gonners.

I bet we get over 40 points.

 

Which is amazing given so many months of Hughes. Ralph would have had 50ish points if not more over a full season with this squad.

At this point I'd b disappointed if we didn't get 40. We have two very winnable home games (Bournemouth and Huddersfield) and if we win both would only need one point from the other 5 games to get to 40.

I reckon we will either lose or draw the next 2 then draw or win to Newcastle and win the last 4! Hopefully get well over 40 points

I made a prediction of 16th at the start of the season and I may well find my prediction right on the button at the end.

I made a prediction of 16th at the start of the season and I may well find my prediction right on the button at the end.

I am posting on this one just to get it back up the list of threads. I love this time of the season when every game, every goal, every dodgy decision, every booking and every injury can have serious repercussions.

I think we will be safe because we are better than the rest and will pick both expected and unexpected points. That does not mean I don't worry. It is tense. I hope we will rise up the table but a couple of bad results will see us sweating to the end.

it's all about Cardiff really. Those 6 points we dropped to them could be crucial but they have a horrendous run in. They are either playing top 6 sides or other relegation candidates, excluding Fulham who are already down. Not sure what to hope for when they play Burnley next weekend.

Bournemouth will play a part as they play Palace, Brighton and us. They never do us any favours.

I am posting on this one just to get it back up the list of threads. I love this time of the season when every game, every goal, every dodgy decision, every booking and every injury can have serious repercussions.

 

I think we will be safe because we are better than the rest and will pick both expected and unexpected points. That does not mean I don't worry. It is tense. I hope we will rise up the table but a couple of bad results will see us sweating to the end.

 

it's all about Cardiff really. Those 6 points we dropped to them could be crucial but they have a horrendous run in. They are either playing top 6 sides or other relegation candidates, excluding Fulham who are already down. Not sure what to hope for when they play Burnley next weekend.

 

Bournemouth will play a part as they play Palace, Brighton and us. They never do us any favours.

Surely no one will be hoping for anything other than a Burnley win here? Burnley are safe now, so any defeat here for Cardiff kills them and in effect keeps the rest of us up.

Surely no one will be hoping for anything other than a Burnley win here? Burnley are safe now, so any defeat here for Cardiff kills them and in effect keeps the rest of us up.

Absolutely. Everyone getting caught up with Brighton and Burnley when in reality, it’s only Cardiff that matter.

If Cardiff lose on Saturday then that’s that IMO.

Surely no one will be hoping for anything other than a Burnley win here? Burnley are safe now, so any defeat here for Cardiff kills them and in effect keeps the rest of us up.

Absolutely. Everyone getting caught up with Brighton and Burnley when in reality, it’s only Cardiff that matter.

 

If Cardiff lose on Saturday then that’s that IMO.

Agree, Burnley 100%. There is no other answer.

Agree, Burnley 100%. There is no other answer.

[emoji106]

I’m wanting a draw for us vs wolves and imho that would be enough. Would mean Cardiff needing 2 wins more than us plus a draw for the difference in GD.

Here’s an analysis of the run-in from Cardiff’s perspective...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/newcastle-united-southampton-brighton-burnley-16094770.amp

Here’s an analysis of the run-in from Cardiff’s perspective...

 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/newcastle-united-southampton-brighton-burnley-16094770.amp

Pretty fair summing up really and shows just how important Saturdays game at Burnley is. Anything other than a home win sees them in trouble too with those fuxtures left.

Pretty fair summing up really and shows just how important Saturdays game at Burnley is. Anything other than a home win sees them in trouble too with those fuxtures left.

Massive game. Will Burnley's momentum carry them through to blow Cardiff away? Or will they ease off now if they think they are safe?

Excellent, particularly like the 5th headline.

Just to note that our form in the last five games is better than anyone in the bottom half except Palace (and is better than Spurs, Wolves and Watford in the top half too).

We played Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester United in those five games.

I'm still thinking we're going to come about 13th, don't think we'll catch Palace and will have to win at maybe Newcastle and definitely West Ham to finish above both of them.

As it is, losing to Liverpool only moved our most likely placing down 0.2 positions and beating Wolves would move us up 0.9 places. We currently have a 2.5% chance of being relegated. Cardiff are at 88.4%.

Of note, a Burnley win v Cardiff barely changes Burnley's 2.8% chance of relegation, but it moves Cardiff to 95.3%. A draw improves Burnley to only 1.2% and drops Cardiff to 91% likely to be relegated, and a Cardiff win still has them at 74.3% likely to go down, but sees Burnley drop to 9.1% likely.

Effect on Saints of

Burnley win (1.3% less likely to go down)

Draw (2.2% less likely to go down)

Cardiff win (5% more likely to go down).

So whilst the Burnley win seems like the best result, in isolation the draw is still the best result for Saints - this is because of the "lost point", our relegation rivals sharing 2 points instead of 3, so the overall probability still favours us better with the draw.

A Saints win against Wolves reduces our likelihood of relegation by 2.2%, a draw with Wolves reduces it by 0.5% and losing to Wolves increases relegation threat by 1.6%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

FWIW our percentage chance of finishing in each position from 11th to a relegated 18th is: 2,6,11,16,19,20,23,3 respectively. So we're most likely to finish 17th, but only slightly more likely than to finish in one of 16th, 15th and 14th as well. More than twice as likely to come 17th than 13th, twice as likely to come 12th than 18th, and nearly as likely to come 11th as 18th.

Incidentally, 6 straight wins still only gives us a 1% chance of coming 7th. 41% likely to come 10th in that situation.

I'm fairly sure that this time last year we had the same number of points as Cardiff have now, and managed to pick up 8 points in our last 5 games.

Still wouldn't surprise me if we need something in the last game v Huddersfield to stay up.

On a separate subject this season must be a record for the fewest times our games have been televised, combined with a low league placing that will limit our income from this season (and no trip to Wembley like 2017 and 2018)

Newcastle away will be our only televised away game all season.

Brilliant!!!

Just to note that our form in the last five games is better than anyone in the bottom half except Palace (and is better than Spurs, Wolves and Watford in the top half too).

 

We played Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester United in those five games.

 

I'm still thinking we're going to come about 13th, don't think we'll catch Palace and will have to win at maybe Newcastle and definitely West Ham to finish above both of them.

 

As it is, losing to Liverpool only moved our most likely placing down 0.2 positions and beating Wolves would move us up 0.9 places. We currently have a 2.5% chance of being relegated. Cardiff are at 88.4%.

 

Of note, a Burnley win v Cardiff barely changes Burnley's 2.8% chance of relegation, but it moves Cardiff to 95.3%. A draw improves Burnley to only 1.2% and drops Cardiff to 91% likely to be relegated, and a Cardiff win still has them at 74.3% likely to go down, but sees Burnley drop to 9.1% likely.

 

Effect on Saints of

Burnley win (1.3% less likely to go down)

Draw (2.2% less likely to go down)

Cardiff win (5% more likely to go down).

 

So whilst the Burnley win seems like the best result, in isolation the draw is still the best result for Saints - this is because of the "lost point", our relegation rivals sharing 2 points instead of 3, so the overall probability still favours us better with the draw.

 

A Saints win against Wolves reduces our likelihood of relegation by 2.2%, a draw with Wolves reduces it by 0.5% and losing to Wolves increases relegation threat by 1.6%.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

 

FWIW our percentage chance of finishing in each position from 11th to a relegated 18th is: 2,6,11,16,19,20,23,3 respectively. So we're most likely to finish 17th, but only slightly more likely than to finish in one of 16th, 15th and 14th as well. More than twice as likely to come 17th than 13th, twice as likely to come 12th than 18th, and nearly as likely to come 11th as 18th.

 

Incidentally, 6 straight wins still only gives us a 1% chance of coming 7th. 41% likely to come 10th in that situation.

I'm not really sure of the veracity of the data on that site. Don't they treat all results as equally likely, so all 20 teams start the season with a 5% chance of winning the league?

If we lose to Wolves and Cardiff beat Burnley, it feels to me like our relegation risk goes up a lot.

Basically, all I care about at the moment is staying well clear of Cardiff. If we end up pushing towards 12th, that's just a bonus.

I'm not really sure of the veracity of the data on that site. Don't they treat all results as equally likely, so all 20 teams start the season with a 5% chance of winning the league?

 

If we lose to Wolves and Cardiff beat Burnley, it feels to me like our relegation risk goes up a lot.

 

Basically, all I care about at the moment is staying well clear of Cardiff. If we end up pushing towards 12th, that's just a bonus.

No these aren't coin flips. Each team has a weighting depending on their strength (I'm not sure they calculate that though).

You can click on 50/50 to get that data though.

Explanations for the algorithm are here: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html

I could see Cardiff getting another 7 pts. They nearly beat Chelsea too so you definitely can’t rule out a surprise result.

Saints wise...

Wolves - 1-1

Newcastle - 1-1

Watford - 1–0 loss

Bournemouth- 2-1 win

West Ham - 2-1 loss

Huddersfield - 2-1 win

I give us 8 pts and 41 in total.

I could actually see us slip up against a Bournemouth (1-1) . That would give us 6 pts more and 39 in total.

Just hoping Cardiff don’t get 3 wins. That could make things tense!

I could see Cardiff getting another 7 pts. They nearly beat Chelsea too so you definitely can’t rule out a surprise result.

Saints wise...

Wolves - 1-1

Newcastle - 1-1

Watford - 1–0 loss

Bournemouth- 2-1 win

West Ham - 2-1 loss

Huddersfield - 2-1 win

I give us 8 pts and 41 in total.

I could actually see us slip up against a Bournemouth (1-1) . That would give us 6 pts more and 39 in total.

Just hoping Cardiff don’t get 3 wins. That could make things tense!

 

Just hoping Cardiff don’t get 3 wins. That could make things tense!

This place will be a nightmare if that happens. I think we are in that zone where it seems like we are safe one minute and you can breathe easy, but then another look at the fixtures and a few "what if" questions can get you in a cold sweat. It'll be much clearer after Saturday's games. Hopefully we will be breathing easy.

A lot of ppl think Cardiff are gone, I'm not nearly so sure. If Cardiff beat Burnley on Saturday then they are 5 points behind with a game in hand.

They have potentially 3 games where they could win Brighton(a), Fulham(a), Palace(h) whereas Burnley look to have potentially a point vs Arsenal??

Saturday is massive for both teams.

Wins against B'mth and Udders should definitely do it for us but hopefully we'll be able to nail this season long before then. If we can't get the requisite points before B'mth it could be itchy bum time.

Be foolish if people think Cardiff are already down. We had 28 points after 32 games last season, Swansea had 32...

Be foolish if people think Cardiff are already down. We had 28 points after 32 games last season, Swansea had 32...

But we had to play each other so that brings in the 6-pointer.

Cardiff are down. My consolation prize is £2k if Saints go down and I never win anything! Seriously though I just can't see them staying up. On their forum they're talking about 3 wins for safety - they've had 8 in 32. I'm quietly confident in our survival and think we should be looking to gun down Bournemouth rather than what's going on behind us.

My predos for our last six fixtures...

Saints vs Wolves: 2-1 win (they'll be deflated. Ings will be on the scoresheet.)

Newcastle vs Saints: 2-0 loss (just an inkling. They spanked us 3-0 last year and even though Kenedy has done bugger all since, he might like this fixture. Still Rondon is in form and Schar is fit. Toughie.)

Watford vs Saints: 1-1 (Their minds will be on Wembley but at the same time they have some quality.)

Southampton vs Bournemouth: 2-0 win. (Not being biased, I think we will beat them. Hassenhuttl should be eyeing this as the second best chance for 3 points after Huddersfield.)

West Ham vs Saints: 0-0 (Toughest one to call - could go either way. They're inconsistent but have better players, we probably have a better team ethic... and coach. End of season stalemate.)

Saints vs Huddersfield: 3-1 (Party time at St Mary's as a season that started out badly ends on a high note. A consolation goal for Huddersfield gives them something to cheer about too.)

11 points, 14th place. Tasty.

I think we are just as likely to win all 3 away games as win all 3 at home as above....

Massive weekend ahead for all of the teams down there. I can't see Cardiff catching us if Burnley beat them AND we take at least a point off Wolves (what with our goal difference basically giving us an extra point cushion). If Cardiff beat Burnley and Wolves beat us then it turns our Bournemouth game into a must win for us if we want to avoid a repeat of last season's dramatics.

I could see Cardiff getting another 7 pts. They nearly beat Chelsea too so you definitely can’t rule out a surprise result.

 

Saints wise...

 

Wolves - 1-1

Newcastle - 1-1

Watford - 1–0 loss

Bournemouth- 2-1 win

West Ham - 2-1 loss

Huddersfield - 2-1 win

 

I give us 8 pts and 41 in total.

 

I could actually see us slip up against a Bournemouth (1-1) . That would give us 6 pts more and 39 in total.

 

Just hoping Cardiff don’t get 3 wins. That could make things tense!

Would mean 4 points is enough. If we cant get that with our remaining fixtures then we deserve to go down

Would mean 4 points is enough. If we cant get that with our remaining fixtures then we deserve to go down

If Cardiff only get 7 more, it’ll give them 35. That would mean we’d only need another 2pts. Are we certain Man Utd will do what’s required last game? I fear they may be on the beach if the Champions League places are sorted by then.

If we can’t stay above Cardiff now, we don’t deserve to stay up.

Cardiff have four very winnable games. And, of course, one cannot rule out them picking up points against Liverpool and/or Man Utd. Call me a bed wetter but I feel this could be very close.

Cardiff have four very winnable games. And, of course, one cannot rule out them picking up points against Liverpool and/or Man Utd. Call me a bed wetter but I feel this could be very close.

We have six.

The only Cardiff fixture I’d swap given choice is their Fulham for our Newcastle. I’d much rather be playing Watford, West Ham and Bournemouth, who are already on the beach, than Burnley, Brighton, Liverpool and Utd who are all in a critical battle for something.

Supposing we just give them Palace and Fulham as guaranteed, we’d still just need 1 extra point from our 6 winnable games than their 4 tough games.

...

Everyone seems to be assuming we will definitely beat Bournemouth and Huddersfield at home. Look what happened with Cardiff at home...

I think people are getting carried away. I’m naturally pessimistic though and very happy to be proven completely wrong. I hope my pessimism is made to look ridiculous by the end of the season!

Everyone seems to be assuming we will definitely beat Bournemouth and Huddersfield at home. Look what happened with Cardiff at home...

 

I think people are getting carried away. I’m naturally pessimistic though and very happy to be proven completely wrong. I hope my pessimism is made to look ridiculous by the end of the season!

Nobody is assuming anything and we are more than capable of losing any of those games. What would be unlikely is us making a mess of all six and Cardiff suddenly discovering the form of their lives when they've been awful all season.

Never say never but Saints have far easier fixtures and are playing far better. With the points and GD as they are, we also effectively have a 2 game head start in a 6 game race.

Everyone seems to be assuming we will definitely beat Bournemouth and Huddersfield at home. Look what happened with Cardiff at home...

 

I think people are getting carried away. I’m naturally pessimistic though and very happy to be proven completely wrong. I hope my pessimism is made to look ridiculous by the end of the season!

Even if we screw our winnable games up, we have a much better goal difference than them, And I'd guesstimate 2 more points will be enough even then. Cardiff would need 8 points if we get 2. They won't do that, and even if they do, IMO we will get more than two points this season, it's a no-brainer. In fact they already need 6 points to overhaul us if we don't get any more points! (Which won't happen.)

As has has been said on this thread, if we monumentally **** up safety and get relegated, we absolutely would deserve it. I think some of you are giving Cardiff more credit than they deserve, and even if they do miraculously pull a few wins out the bag, it's Brighton and their run of awful fixtures that should be worried IMO.

How many points from the remaining games are people predicting we’ll get?

Everyone seems to be assuming we will definitely beat Bournemouth and Huddersfield at home. Look what happened with Cardiff at home...

 

I think people are getting carried away. I’m naturally pessimistic though and very happy to be proven completely wrong. I hope my pessimism is made to look ridiculous by the end of the season!

You can't base your calculations on one game, we lost to Cardiff but beat Spurs. We are playing well and in good form so we are in a good place to be able to beat a struggling Bournemouth and a poor Huddersfield.

Cardiff have four very winnable games. And, of course, one cannot rule out them picking up points against Liverpool and/or Man Utd. Call me a bed wetter but I feel this could be very close.

I would expect based on current form and a factor of relegated sides gaining a few unusual results would mean they are more than likely to get no more than 8-9 points. Therefore I think we need 4 points from 6 to be safe and based on the same thinking we are more likely to get 9. Just my ionuon but im a little more optimistic i guess.

You can't base your calculations on one game, we lost to Cardiff but beat Spurs. We are playing well and in good form so we are in a good place to be able to beat a struggling Bournemouth and a poor Huddersfield.

You’re totally right. I just thought that the way we were playing we couldn’t fail to beat Cardiff at the time also.

We just need to get over the line as quickly as possible so they can make plans for next year. Not knowing what league you’ll be in could mean that plans for next year (signings) are delayed.

Fingers crossed Cardiff lose the next two matches and we pick up at least a point!

Realistically out of those 5 teams we are the ones in form the most and have the easiest run ins.

Personally I think we will pick up 8-10 points, but certainly even if Cardiff win 4 games which would be close to miraculous, they'd have to do it by beating Burnley and Brighton and considering those two teams last 4 fixtures you'd be more worried about them than us.

I think really we'd have to get something like 1 win from 6 winnable games to even be threatened and even then that would require 3 wins from Cardiff, which still looks unlikely.

Win on Saturday would be a good start though to basically banish relegation worries, especially if Cardiff lost at Burnley.

It would also generally be good to finish the season in decent form because often teams take that through to the new season, like Burnley finished awfully last year and carried it on this season.

How many points from the remaining games are people predicting we’ll get?

I think wins against BOU/HUD, a draw against WOL/WHU and a loss at NEW/WAT would be a reasonable prediction. 8 points which sees Cardiff needing 14.

even with a game in hand, i reckon Brighton is sweating it the most among the non-Cardiff teams.

Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H)

It is not such a far fetched scenario that Brighton could find themselves in 18 place by the end of the day Tuesday.