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The Run In Thread


Saint Garrett

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Don’t talk rubbish man.

 

Wolves & Watford as well as West Ham will have nothing to play for. Continue as they have been and Newcastle won’t by the time we go there. Boscombe won’t either, but the local element may make that tougher.

 

We have an incredibly easy run in, with 7 of the last 8 very much winnable.

 

 

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Exactly, how many of these teams will mentally be on the beach with nothing to play for?

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I fully expect Brighton to win, but if somehow Huddersfield win... Brighton are going to start seriously worrying.

 

I'd expect BHA to be pretty anxious for this one (no league wins in 2019). They'll be putting a lot of pressure on themselves to win. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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I'd have said 7 or 8 was fairly optimistic for Cardiff. Beating West Ham and Palace at home (fixtures we got 1 point from), with another point at Fulham and Burnley. I'll stake my claim on them getting 33 points and come back to this post in May. Wouldn't like to guess where we end up relative to that but I would 100% take our run in over theirs.

 

We're 2pts ahead of them with a superior GD, if they get 8 pts we'd only need 6 from the final 10 games (assuming we don't get totally tonked a few times). Surely we can manage that. Even if they get 12 (3W 3D 4L) we'd only need 10 (a point a game pace). Still nervous though because it's Saints.

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Average position of remaining opponents

Newcastle 11.3

Crystal Palace 11.2

Burnley 8.4

Brighton 10.5

Southampton 9.5

Cardiff 9.5

 

 

for all the fixture comparisons this was quite a surprising statistic!

 

but...

 

Cardiff face four of the top six between now and May 12 - Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Man United - and have six away games in their remaining 10. It's not looking good for Neil Warnock's side, particularly on the back of two heavy defeats against Watford and Everton

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Average position of remaining opponents

Newcastle 11.3

Crystal Palace 11.2

Burnley 8.4

Brighton 10.5

Southampton 9.5

Cardiff 9.5

 

 

for all the fixture comparisons this was quite a surprising statistic!

 

but...

 

Cardiff face four of the top six between now and May 12 - Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Man United - and have six away games in their remaining 10. It's not looking good for Neil Warnock's side, particularly on the back of two heavy defeats against Watford and Everton

...
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We absolutely shouldn't go down from here with Cardiff's games left & their best defender out for the rest of the season - but you never know.

 

I would give Neil Warnock manager of the season if he did keep them up tbf

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Quite agree. You never know, but I can't see us being relegated.

 

We've had some of our best players out , our rivals might look at top scorer Ings being out as a reason why we'll struggle as well.

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We've had some of our best players out , our rivals might look at top scorer Ings being out as a reason why we'll struggle as well.

 

The verb tense is key here I think. Bertrand, Yoshida, Ings and Lemina have all been out and we're still above Cardiff WITH Bamba. Now we have RB and MY back, things are reversed somewhat and in theory swung in our favour.

 

Ings may be out but Bamba was Cardiff's top scorer too I think. Redmond and JWP would both win Cardiff's golden boot as it stands.

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The Burnley loss today was huge for us. You look at their last 4 fixtures and, despite them being a difficult team to beat, you can't see many, if any points for them there. They could well be the third relegated team, which would be massive for Cardiff. (Who would then suffer second season syndrome and be easier to beat next season!) :D

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The Burnley loss today was huge for us. You look at their last 4 fixtures and, despite them being a difficult team to beat, you can't see many, if any points for them there. They could well be the third relegated team, which would be massive for Cardiff. (Who would then suffer second season syndrome and be easier to beat next season!) :D

 

The six pointer between Cardiff and Burnley is a massive game. Had we held on for 1-1 vs Cardiff we'd be so much more comfortable right now. What a difference one ****ty balls up by Stephens made.

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With Burnleys remaining 7 games and Cardiffs 8 games featuring 4 games against the top 6 and a game against each other where points will be dropped for one or both teams, i would say that 7 points will see us safe.

 

Would mean Cardiff would need 10 points given their poor GD to overtake us. Unlikely

Burnley would need 7/8 points depending on GD to overtake us. More possible but not guaranteed given their form

Chances of both occuring, very unlikely.

 

That being said, I hope we can get the majority of these points in our next few games and not make it a nervy run in where anything can happen. Honestly believe we could pick up 13/14 points given our form and remaining fixtures, could see us finishing 13th easily

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With Burnleys remaining 7 games and Cardiffs 8 games featuring 4 games against the top 6 and a game against each other where points will be dropped for one or both teams, i would say that 7 points will see us safe.

 

Would mean Cardiff would need 10 points given their poor GD to overtake us. Unlikely

Burnley would need 7/8 points depending on GD to overtake us. More possible but not guaranteed given their form

Chances of both occuring, very unlikely.

 

That being said, I hope we can get the majority of these points in our next few games and not make it a nervy run in where anything can happen. Honestly believe we could pick up 13/14 points given our form and remaining fixtures, could see us finishing 13th easily

 

Games against top 7 i meant

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There is another way to look at the run-in. No team with 11 wins has ever been relegated. That would require:

 

Cardiff to win 3 of their last 8;

Burnley to win 3 of their last 7;

Crystal Palace to win 2 of their last 8;

Brighton to win 2 of their last 9;

Saints to win 4 of our last 8.

 

It will almost certainly go down to the wire.

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Apologies to Saint Garrett, but here's an updated view.

 

Brighton have got a bit more fixture congestion in April. But if I were a Cardiff fan, then Burnley, Brighton, Fulham and Palace need maximum points. Toughie.

 

Possibly a bit too early, but worth keeping an eye on fixtures. Home games in bold.

 

 

Newcastle - 35 Points

March 30 - Arsenal v Newcastle United

April 06 - Newcastle United v Crystal Palace

April 13 - Leicester City v Newcastle United

April 20 - Newcastle United v Southampton

April 27 - Brighton v Newcastle United

May 04 - Newcastle United v Liverpool

May 12 - Fulham v Newcastle United

 

 

Crystal Palace - 33 Points

Mar 30 - Palace v Huddersfield

April 03 - Tottenham Hotspur v Palace

April 06 - Newcastle - Palace

April 14 - Palace v Man City

April 21 - Arsenal - Palace

April 27 - Palace v Everton

May 04 - Cardiff v Palace

May 12 - Palace v Bournemouth

 

 

Brighton - 33 Points

March 30 - Brighton v Southampton

April 03 - Chelsea v Brighton

April 13 - Brighton v Bournemouth

April 16 - Brighton v Cardiff

April 20 - Wolves v Brighton

April 23 - Tottenham v Brighton

April 27 - Brighton v Newcastle United

May 04 - Arsenal v Brighton

May 12 - Brighton v Man City

 

 

Saints - 30 Points

March 30 - Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton

April 06 - Southampton v Liverpool

April 13 - Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers

April 20 - Newcastle v Southampton

April 23 - Watford v Southampton

April 27 - Southampton v Bournemouth

May 04 - West Ham United v Southampton

May 12 - Southampton v Huddersfield

 

 

Burnley - 30 Points

Mar 30 - Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers

April 06 - AFC Bournemouth v Burnley

April 13 - Burnley v Cardiff City

April 20 - Chelsea v Burnley

April 27 - Burnley v Manchester City

May 04 - Everton v Burnley

May 12 - Burnley v Arsenal

 

 

Cardiff - 28 Points

March 30 — Cardiff City v Chelsea

April 6 — Manchester City v Cardiff City

April 13 — Burnley v Cardiff City

April 16 — Brighton v Cardiff City

April 20 — Cardiff City v Liverpool

April 27 — Fulham v Cardiff City

May 4 — Cardiff City v Crystal Palace

May 12 — Manchester United v Cardiff City

Edited by ooh it's a corner
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I think Brighton will be fine looking at their fixtures, but when you add in the FA Cup semi final on 6th April v Man City it is a busy period, no way can Glenn Murray play in all the games but I'm sure he'll make an appearance against us.

Chelsea play Cardiff then Brighton in next two games, could do with them picking up a bit.

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I really cant see Cardiff getting any more than 8 points absolute maximum, so we need 6 with out better goal difference. We should easily get 6 points from our last 8, I think we'll get more like 10 and stay up quite comfortably.

 

Much as I hate the premier league I don't want to get relegated as that would be a disaster for the club the way we are run. Also think next season will be much better if Hassenhuttl sticks around.

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Looking at the fixtures from each team's selfish perspective, i can make an argument for seeing about 15 points of on offer for us, Brighton, Palace and Newcastle (i.e. we could conceivably beat Brighton, Wolves, Newcastle, Bournemouth & Huddersfield without getting too silly about predictions). The two with less realistically on offer are Cardiff (12-14) and Burnley (11 max beating AFCB away and getting points v Everton & Arsenal).

 

With that in mind it means IMHO each team has the opportunity to get away, but Cardiff & Burnley have a lot less wiggle room (they need everything to go as well as possible). Given Burnley's current form I really think they could be in danger. Good news for us is they play Cardiff so one of them won't be getting their full quota of best-case-scenario points.

 

Personally, I'd ultimately rather Burnley went down but that would mean Cardiff picking up points which would lead to some very nervous moments before season-end. So out of respect for my ticker, I probably want Cardiff losing every week until we're safe ...

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Burnley's fall from grace has been mind boggling yet their manager still seems immune to criticism.

 

I was just looking at their remaining fixtures away to Bournemouth this weekend who Howe was fuming with on Saturday. Then tough games left including Cardiff.

 

 

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Went on to the Fishy.co.uk predictor website and did a very quick pass through likely results in the last 7 games and not surprisingly Cardiff do not make it. That's not to say there are no surprise results but even allowing for that it's a big ask for them.

 

Pos Team P GD Pts

1 Man City 38 +74 94

2 Liverpool 38 +66 91

3 Tottenham 38 +34 80

4 Man Utd 38 +26 80

5 Arsenal 38 +29 76

6 Chelsea 38 +27 76

7 Leicester 38 +1 51

8 Wolverhampton 38 -4 51

9 Watford 38 -4 50

10 Everton 38 +5 49

11 West Ham 38 -5 49

12 Bournemouth 38 -15 46

13 Newcastle 38 -12 43

14 Southampton 38 -15 42

15 Crystal Palace 38 -7 41

16 Brighton 38 -14 38

17 Burnley 38 -28 36

18 Cardiff 38 -34 29

19 Fulham 38 -52 25

20 Huddersfield 38 -52 17

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Went on to the Fishy.co.uk predictor website and did a very quick pass through likely results in the last 7 games and not surprisingly Cardiff do not make it. That's not to say there are no surprise results but even allowing for that it's a big ask for them.

 

Pos Team P GD Pts

1 Man City 38 +74 94

2 Liverpool 38 +66 91

3 Tottenham 38 +34 80

4 Man Utd 38 +26 80

5 Arsenal 38 +29 76

6 Chelsea 38 +27 76

7 Leicester 38 +1 51

8 Wolverhampton 38 -4 51

9 Watford 38 -4 50

10 Everton 38 +5 49

11 West Ham 38 -5 49

12 Bournemouth 38 -15 46

13 Newcastle 38 -12 43

14 Southampton 38 -15 42

15 Crystal Palace 38 -7 41

16 Brighton 38 -14 38

17 Burnley 38 -28 36

18 Cardiff 38 -34 29

19 Fulham 38 -52 25

20 Huddersfield 38 -52 17

you think Fulham are going to get another 8 points, blimey
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Cardiff’s games against Burnley and Brighton are huge for them now. They probably need to win both.

Hopefully can get completely safe in next 3 games, leaving a handful of games for experimentation.

 

Would like to see the likes of Slattery, Ramsay, Vokins, Sims, Johnson and Barnes given some gametime if this was the case

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I'm going to curse us now and we'll go down, but I don't think its completely impossible that we go on a mad run and win our last 6 games which would put us right in the mix for 7th. Lots of teams cruising, already down or just plain rubbish. Imagine...

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UPDATED: 3rd April 2019

 

Crystal Palace - 36 Points (-5GD)

 

April 06 - Newcastle - Palace

April 14 - Palace v Man City

April 21 - Arsenal - Palace

April 27 - Palace v Everton

May 04 - Cardiff v Palace

May 12 - Palace v Bournemouth

 

 

Newcastle - 35 Points (-11GD)

 

April 06 - Newcastle United v Crystal Palace

April 13 - Leicester City v Newcastle United

April 20 - Newcastle United v Southampton

April 27 - Brighton v Newcastle United

May 04 - Newcastle United v Liverpool

May 12 - Fulham v Newcastle United

 

 

Brighton - 33 Points (-14GD)

 

April 13 - Brighton v Bournemouth

April 16 - Brighton v Cardiff

April 20 - Wolves v Brighton

April 23 - Tottenham v Brighton

April 27 - Brighton v Newcastle United

May 04 - Arsenal v Brighton

May 12 - Brighton v Man City

 

 

Saints - 33 Points (-15GD)

 

April 5 - Southampton v Liverpool

April 13 - Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers

April 20 - Newcastle v Southampton

April 23 - Watford v Southampton

April 27 - Southampton v Bournemouth

May 04 - West Ham United v Southampton

May 12 - Southampton v Huddersfield

 

 

Burnley - 33 Points (-22GD)

 

April 06 - AFC Bournemouth v Burnley

April 13 - Burnley v Cardiff City

April 20 - Chelsea v Burnley

April 27 - Burnley v Manchester City

May 04 - Everton v Burnley

May 12 - Burnley v Arsenal

 

Cardiff - 28 Points (-33GD)

 

April 13 - Burnley v Cardiff City

April 16 - Brighton v Cardiff City

April 20 - Cardiff City v Liverpool

April 27 - Fulham v Cardiff City

May 4 - Cardiff City v Crystal Palace

May 12 - Manchester United v Cardiff City

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I would say our points requirement has been downgraded to 4. Would mean that Cardiff need 10 points from 18 to overtake us. Wins against Brighton(A), Fulham(A) and Palace(H) present their best opportunity but even thats not enough if they win all three. Cant see them getting anything from Burnley(A), Liverpool(H) and United(A).

 

A point against Liverpool would be huge but even if we lose, 4 points from our remaining six games shouldnt be an issue

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It's possible, but unlikely, that Cardiff could get four wins, so I'm sticking with us needing 7 to be safe. Although if Cardiff get those wins, it'll draw Burnley and/or Brighton into the mix.

 

In any case, two wins and a draw shouldn't be beyond us.

 

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I reckon Cardiff are toast. The bookies now have them at about 1/8 to go down. Saints are about 66/1.

 

Obviously, they can technically win all their last six games and get 18 more points. But if they keep up their present points per game rate, they will only get about 5 more points. They really need six points to overtake us (due to our better GD) even if we lose all of our remaining games.

 

Looking at their run in, it's a mix of matches against the top teams and others involved in the relegation scrap. My guess would be they are only going to pick up 4, 5 or 6 points. Maybe lower.

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Cardiff's next two games away to Burnley and Brighton are pretty critical as even if they win they might drag the other two further into it.

 

A few points in our next two home games could see us in a healthy position.

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I still think we're safe, give or take a point or two. Reading the Cardiff forum they're not concerned with catching us, just Burnley. We should really be looking up now looking at where we could finish; 12th is still possible, I think beyond that is unlikely. If you offered me 14th now I'd take it.

 

Over-confident? Perhaps, but that's the Hasenhuttl effect. This is the most comfortable relegation battle we've been in the 30 years of supporting Saints!

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Relax - think we are as safe as houses. I fully expect us to finish much higher up than we are now. If we strengthen in attack (which we have failed to do the last 2 years since Pelle left) I reckon we will be challenging for 'best of the rest' next season.

 

RH has made a massive difference and I think 2 or 3 players is all we need in the summer and try to shift a lot of the deadweight (even if we subsidise wages).

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