Saint Albert Posted 21 April, 2019 Share Posted 21 April, 2019 The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H) 4+ points = safety guaranteed 3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton) 1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD) Brighton are home to Man City on the final day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 21 April, 2019 Share Posted 21 April, 2019 (edited) Brighton are home to Man City on the final day. yep, sorry for the typo. Mancs. They’re all the same ;-) (fortunately, we don’t have just one Manc team having to play our relegation rivals simultaneously!) Edited 22 April, 2019 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 23 April, 2019 Share Posted 23 April, 2019 (edited) The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H) 4+ points = safety guaranteed 3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton) 1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) Our point gained simplifies it to these scenarios now. I don’t think Cardiff will beat Fulham though so could be all wrapped up real soon. Edited 23 April, 2019 by OttawaSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 23 April, 2019 Share Posted 23 April, 2019 Cardiff are down. My consolation prize is £2k if Saints go down and I never win anything! Seriously though I just can't see them staying up. On their forum they're talking about 3 wins for safety - they've had 8 in 32. I'm quietly confident in our survival and think we should be looking to gun down Bournemouth rather than what's going on behind us. My predos for our last six fixtures... Saints vs Wolves: 2-1 win (they'll be deflated. Ings will be on the scoresheet.) Newcastle vs Saints: 2-0 loss (just an inkling. They spanked us 3-0 last year and even though Kenedy has done bugger all since, he might like this fixture. Still Rondon is in form and Schar is fit. Toughie.) Watford vs Saints: 1-1 (Their minds will be on Wembley but at the same time they have some quality.) Southampton vs Bournemouth: 2-0 win. (Not being biased, I think we will beat them. Hassenhuttl should be eyeing this as the second best chance for 3 points after Huddersfield.) West Ham vs Saints: 0-0 (Toughest one to call - could go either way. They're inconsistent but have better players, we probably have a better team ethic... and coach. End of season stalemate.) Saints vs Huddersfield: 3-1 (Party time at St Mary's as a season that started out badly ends on a high note. A consolation goal for Huddersfield gives them something to cheer about too.) 11 points, 14th place. Tasty. 2 correct results and a correct scoreline so far! I could rival Lawrenson with predos like these! 7 points in the next 3 would be tasty though - 4-6 would perhaps be my revised prediction as the season draws to a close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 2 correct results and a correct scoreline so far! I could rival Lawrenson with predos like these! 7 points in the next 3 would be tasty though - 4-6 would perhaps be my revised prediction as the season draws to a close... Would be lovely to stuff the cherries, secure safety and get a bit of a party atmosphere going at SMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 We should be okay. As long as Cardiff don’t pick up a magical point from Turkish and as long as our draws count for a point each. If Cardiff are on a Turkish 32 points and we have a point deducted (15+9=23), it might go to the last game. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttawaSaint Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 We should be okay. As long as Cardiff don’t pick up a magical point from Turkish and as long as our draws count for a point each. If Cardiff are on a Turkish 32 points and we have a point deducted (15+9=23), it might go to the last game. Fingers crossed. I’m not celebrating until hesigbourg says we’re safe, we are Swansea after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 I’m not celebrating until hesigbourg says we’re safe, we are Swansea after all... I’m with you. It’s tricky. Let’s be clear. Turkish knows his maths. He lives & thrives on it. He intellectually slaughters those below his IQ. Tough cookie. So, with Cardiff on 32 points and our point tonight written off (because one draw = 0, according to Turkish), we are still in a battle to stay up. I very much hope that standard maths & numeracy beat Turkish maths (in which case we are safe)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 I’m with you. It’s tricky. Let’s be clear. Turkish knows his maths. He lives & thrives on it. He intellectually slaughters those below his IQ. Tough cookie. So, with Cardiff on 32 points and our point tonight written off (because one draw = 0, according to Turkish), we are still in a battle to stay up. I very much hope that standard maths & numeracy beat Turkish maths (in which case we are safe)...Not everyone can be a leading mathematical thinker whose application of statistical modelling has calculated that the team in 17th position this season will accumulate somewhere between 24 and 40 points requiring something between 5 and 10 wins to deliver this. The forum will forever be grateful for this laser-focused forecast and as you rightly say you have been absolutely "bang on the money" all season with your analysis. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raging Bull Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 So with Brighton ending the season with Newcastle, Arsenal and City, I’m guessing that’s it for them points wise, with the exception of possibly a point against Newcastle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shroppie Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 So with Brighton ending the season with Newcastle, Arsenal and City, I’m guessing that’s it for them points wise, with the exception of possibly a point against Newcastle.It is now 11 hours since they scored. To put that in perspective, Shane Long has scored three in that time. [emoji3] Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 We are still entirely capable of picking up 3 wins, I don't think Ralph will let them slack off, especially after letting that lead slip and that poor first half against Newcastle. 2 inconsistent sides with nothing to play for and one very bad one already relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angelman Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 (edited) I know that it is the Express!!! but.... https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1118087/Premier-League-table-predicted-Supercomputer-final-standings-Man-Utd-Liverpool-Man-City This super computer, which is notoriously inaccurate not least as football is not predictable, gives us 6 more points. I think we would all be happy with a 13th place finish given the crap that Hughes put us in. PS - this is where the Express get it from inc predicted scores: https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premier-league/league-table/predicted Edited 24 April, 2019 by angelman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miltonaggro Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 I know that it is the Express!!! but.... https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/1118087/Premier-League-table-predicted-Supercomputer-final-standings-Man-Utd-Liverpool-Man-City This super computer, which is notoriously inaccurate not least as football is not predictable, gives us 6 more points. I think we would all be happy with a 13th place finish given the crap that Hughes put us in. PS - this is where the Express get it from inc predicted scores: https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premier-league/league-table/predicted That would do nicely, 13th and above Boscombe representing a superb finish to the season, particularly considering the deep sh*t we were in when RH arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyinthesky Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 Whats the latest odds on relegation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenridge Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 Whats the latest odds on relegation? 200/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintTex Posted 24 April, 2019 Share Posted 24 April, 2019 Whats the latest odds on relegation? one of my go to sites.. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Southampton : 00.10% chance Brighton : 16.80% chance Cardiff : 83.10% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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