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Theresa May and the death of the Tory Party


sadoldgit

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Boris will do fine.

 

Just sad the press will dig up all sorts now

 

How's he going to get rid of the backstop and improve on May's deal in a way that can get past Parliament pal? If not, we're heading for a GE and/or he's toast.

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Glorious........

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Hold your horses - he's not guaranteed to become PM yet you know. With such a slender majority already, if enough MPs quit the party (as they have been threatening to do) before he gets the chance to visit her Maj and ask to form a government, then he won't be able to.

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Hold your horses - he's not guaranteed to become PM yet you know. With such a slender majority already, if enough MPs quit the party (as they have been threatening to do) before he gets the chance to visit her Maj and ask to form a government, then he won't be able to.

 

Don't think they've been threatening to quit the party as such, more resign from cabinet positions.

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How's he going to get rid of the backstop and improve on May's deal in a way that can get past Parliament pal? If not, we're heading for a GE and/or he's toast.
I read on a news feed that the Irish said last week that if there was a no deal that there would be a frictionless border, and so the thinking is that if they can accommodate that with a no deal they could with one.

So things may happen, we should all be keen for it to be

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I read on a news feed that the Irish said last week that if there was a no deal that there would be a frictionless border, and so the thinking is that if they can accommodate that with a no deal they could with one.

So things may happen, we should all be keen for it to be

 

The Irish are preparing for it now. Maybe the threat of a no deal will actually bear some fruit now, in the most unlikely of ways.

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Patel and Raab :lol:

 

Maybe someone should have a word with Johnson and let him know he’s appointing the Cabinet, not overseeing a competition for thinnest-skin cretin.

 

Priti Patel, who last year suggested that we might use the threat of food shortages to persuade Ireland to drop the backstop.

 

And at least Raab didn't get Transport.

Edited by badgerx16
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  • 1 month later...
QED. Game, set and match. Breakfast means breakfast.

 

There are two main premises in that argument:

 

i) GATT XXIV can be relied upon legally and it will be a simple process.

 

ii) The EU will agree.

 

Can we be sure about both of those, particularly ii)?

 

To revisit this, it appears to me that this will be the "deal" that get's us out of the EU on the 31st October. That is, use GATT Article XXIV. 5b to be exact, which states:

b) with respect to a free-trade area, or an interim agreement leading to the formation of a free-trade area, the duties and other regulations of commerce maintained in each of the constituent territories and applicable at the formation of such free-trade area or the adoption of such interim agreement to the trade of contracting parties not included in such area or not parties to such agreement shall not be higher or more restrictive than the corresponding duties and other regulations of commerce existing in the same constituent territories prior to the formation of the free-trade area, or interim agreement as the case may be.

As todays article in the Torygraph states:

Yes this needs the EU’s and the WTO’s agreement, for sure. Call this a ‘basic deal’. But it’s massively in the EU’s interest to agree, saving £13bn a year of tariffs on EU goods (UK only £5bn), and it’s precisely the kind of tariff free approach that the WTO exists to accomplish.

 

In Andrew Neil's interview with Boris Johnson, Neil (and Whitehall) claimed that:

5c can overturn 5b — but expert lawyers explain that this 5c applies only in the case of an ‘interim arrangement leading to the formation of a free trade area’. The phrase ‘interim agreement’ means more than the colloquial phrase - it has a very specific meaning under GATT Article XXIV. It refers to a case where two parties move gradually towards a free trade area with a plan and schedule of reducing tariffs over time. The EU used this very provision when it was first established as the EEC.But the UK and EU already have zero-tariff trade between them, which we merely seek to maintain, whilst replacing EU membership with a ‘SuperCanada’ style Free Trade Agreement and mini deals on non-trade areas. So 5c does not pertain. Boris was absolutely correct - 5b is sufficient and 5c is irrelevant.

So, job done....

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To revisit this, it appears to me that this will be the "deal" that get's us out of the EU on the 31st October. That is, use GATT Article XXIV. 5b to be exact, which states:

 

As todays article in the Torygraph states:

 

 

In Andrew Neil's interview with Boris Johnson, Neil (and Whitehall) claimed that:

So, job done....

 

That doesn’t take anyone further forward. The premise is that the EU will agree to preserve the current arrangements on the basis that we are working towards an agreement reflecting the current arrangements. In other words, that they will agree to give us the trade benefits of membership. Has anyone, on the EU side, suggested that will happen?

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That doesn’t take anyone further forward. The premise is that the EU will agree to preserve the current arrangements on the basis that we are working towards an agreement reflecting the current arrangements. In other words, that they will agree to give us the trade benefits of membership. Has anyone, on the EU side, suggested that will happen?

The premise is that we operate on a simple FTA, not the current arrangements, such as the one proposed by Dr. Bartels, here, then move on to a super Canada arrangement, as already offered by the EU, in a couple of years.

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The premise is that we operate on a simple FTA, not the current arrangements, such as the one proposed by Dr. Bartels, here, then move on to a super Canada arrangement, as already offered by the EU, in a couple of years.

 

But to rely on that:

 

- you need to know roughly what the FTA will look like

- you need to know that the FTA won’t be less beneficial than the current arrangements

 

In other words, it only works if they agree to give the benefits of membership, which they won’t.

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The premise is that we operate on a simple FTA, not the current arrangements, such as the one proposed by Dr. Bartels, here, then move on to a super Canada arrangement, as already offered by the EU, in a couple of years.

 

You’ve been taken for a ride pal (not for the first time). You are Brexit.

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