Coronavirus

Anyone know any more about the reporting from France, Germany, Italy and Spain?

The rumour I heard today - and I must stress before the likely lads chirrup up that it is only a rumour, one that at the moment I cannot verify anywhere - is that those countries have apparently under reported the amount of deaths due to the virus, some of them by a factor of 10.

Oh I don't think anyone believes them but the timing of what they have said in this case is what counts, the World Military Games were for two weeks from mid October onwards and some of their officials link the earliest cases to that event. So they knew they had a problem in and around Wuhan from about the second week of November.

Releasing a factory made virus amongst competitors at a world military games would make a far more believable conspiracy theory

Anyone know any more about the reporting from France, Germany, Italy and Spain?

 

The rumour I heard today - and I must stress before the likely lads chirrup up that it is only a rumour, one that at the moment I cannot verify anywhere - is that those countries have apparently under reported the amount of deaths due to the virus, some of them by a factor of 10.

The French count virtually all deaths so the current figure of 28000 or so is probably about right. Couldn't say about any of the others. I see that some National Statistics Office in the UK is putting your Covid 19 death counts at somewhere north of 32000, giving the UK the highest death count in Europe. Still when you read the press about BBQs in Lordshill and see the photos of throngs of people in the green spaces every weekend you don't really doubt them. A 30£ fine for defying the lockdown

regulations is just plain stupid. Plus you've only issued about 9000 of them. Here in France we're up to 9 million controls and about 200000 135 euros fines (and some of them are higher multiple offences fines).

Releasing a factory made virus amongst competitors at a world military games would make a far more believable conspiracy theory

It would wouldn't it. Plus the fact that it's such an evil, multi-formed, resistant virus adds to the believability. Every day you read about some new damage caused to the human system by the virus. Perhaps it's just a plot by the bats to wipe us out eh..

Anyone know any more about the reporting from France, Germany, Italy and Spain?The rumour I heard today - and I must stress before the likely lads chirrup up that it is only a rumour, one that at the moment I cannot verify anywhere - is that those countries have apparently under reported the amount of deaths due to the virus, some of them by a factor of 10.

A piece in the Guardian claiming that Germany could potentially have 10 times more infections (but not deaths), estimating the total to be around 1.8m infected people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/german-covid-19-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-official-figures

If true, then I guess that puts an end to the German model of testing and strict adherence to rules reducing the number of infections.

However, if the number of deaths don't alter - currently about 7,000 - then I guess that means that Germany clearly are the master race when it comes to fending off respiratory illnesses.

The French count virtually all deaths so the current figure of 28000 or so is probably about right. Couldn't say about any of the others. I see that some National Statistics Office in the UK is putting your Covid 19 death counts at somewhere north of 32000, giving the UK the highest death count in Europe. Still when you read the press about BBQs in Lordshill and see the photos of throngs of people in the green spaces every weekend you don't really doubt them. A 30£ fine for defying the lockdown

regulations is just plain stupid. Plus you've only issued about 9000 of them. Here in France we're up to 9 million controls and about 200000 135 euros fines (and some of them are higher multiple offences fines).

Yeah, my dad was absolutely dismayed by this; he had lockdown in China at the beginning of the year and was shocked by it. It's basically not lockdown; it's as far as the government think they can stop the public with a majorly cut police force. Google travel data alone suggests there has only been a 10% drop in travel in the UK. That's why it continues to rise.

Yeah, my dad was absolutely dismayed by this; he had lockdown in China at the beginning of the year and was shocked by it. It's basically not lockdown; it's as far as the government think they can stop the public with a majorly cut police force. Google travel data alone suggests there has only been a 10% drop in travel in the UK. That's why it continues to rise.

Car travel maybe. Air travel is down 90%.

Car travel maybe. Air travel is down 90%.

The roads are almost empty and there is no rush hour. Around here I would say that car travel is under 30% of normal.

Car travel maybe. Air travel is down 90%.

Air travel is now, for sure....still no testing and checking on landing though; it certainly wasn't down when he got back though and Whitey Grandad, I live off Winchester road and I haven't noticed a huge difference to be honest. Also, I find it interesting this new tracking software is using Apple maps and not Google (I know why too...Google has had many legal disagreements with Britain's national mapping agency....at one point they blocked out their HQ in Adanac park; I'm not suggesting it has anything to do with lots of their staff using Google maps for their work but....nope, I'm definitely not saying that ;p). But I would absolutely trust Google's tracking software than any figures thrown up and at the daily political broadcast, the scientist called the rise in car travel worrying also.

Yeah, my dad was absolutely dismayed by this; he had lockdown in China at the beginning of the year and was shocked by it. It's basically not lockdown; it's as far as the government think they can stop the public with a majorly cut police force. Google travel data alone suggests there has only been a 10% drop in travel in the UK. That's why it continues to rise.

Sorry 10% is absolute bs.

It’s over 10% down on a normal Friday.

I travel to work everyday & it takes me 40 mins to get the 6.5 miles from one side of Poole to just outside Bournemouth, It’s taking me under half that now. To claim traffic has only dropped by 10% is complete and utter pony. Till about 9am there’s barely a car on the road.

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Air travel is now, for sure....still no testing and checking on landing though;

What do you do with the passengers for the 24 hours whilst they wait for the test results?

I travel to work everyday & it takes me 40 mins to get the 6.5 miles from one side of Poole to just outside Bournemouth, It’s taking me under half that now. To claim traffic has only dropped by 10% is complete and utter pony. Till about 9am there’s barely a car on the road.

 

 

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I agree - although there are more cars on the road now than there were about 3 weeks ago, but that is only about 10% increase on those numbers.

Don't the COBR graphs - which are using apple data - show that 'road' traffic is down by 70%? That data also includes 'road freight' which has declined, but not by the same as car travel.

No way is 10% accurate. Very quiet around my way for most of the day.

Don't mistake a news report or a picture of a main road in London for the rest of the country (where the corona issue is far less severe)

What do you do with the passengers for the 24 hours whilst they wait for the test results?

They can scan temperature at departure and stop them from boarding. Too late once they are in.

Temp scan not perfect as can rise for number of reasons other than the virus, and they may not be at the high temperature symptom stage

They can scan temperature at departure and stop them from boarding. Too late once they are in.

Temp scan not perfect as can rise for number of reasons other than the virus, and they may not be at the high temperature symptom stage

Scanning for temperature was being used extensively 8 weeks ago in Singapore. It was being done both obviously with a thermometer when entering a restaurant / bar and less obviously by people behind a computer in the arrivals lounge at the airport / outside tourist attractions etc.

The temperature tests may not have been perfect and Singapore has had a "second spike" caused by workers in dormitories but their record in combating Covid has been good - better than ours. It is strange that similar measures have not been introduced here.

They can scan temperature at departure and stop them from boarding. Too late once they are in.

Temp scan not perfect as can rise for number of reasons other than the virus, and they may not be at the high temperature symptom stage

It can take days for the virus to develop, so potentially you could let everyone onto the plane who have no temperature but they could all be infected and only become contagious a couple of days after they land. Then there are the people who have the virus but no symptoms.

Testing is the way to go, but again, it takes 24 hours for the test results to come back, so what do you do with people until the results come back - you would have to isolate each person in the airport seperately otherwise they may be infected by someone else waiting for their results, which is not practical.

You either keep all planes grounded or assume some risk that people will travel with the virus. In everyday life, this is still likely to happen as well on tubes, trains, buses etc.

I travelled to a Far East country when SARS was a thing in 2003, we all had to walk through a temperature scanner type of machine when getting off the aeroplane and if you were flagged, you were not allowed to enter the country and it was your problem to deal with.

It can take days for the virus to develop, so potentially you could let everyone onto the plane who have no temperature but they could all be infected and only become contagious a couple of days after they land. Then there are the people who have the virus but no symptoms.

 

Testing is the way to go, but again, it takes 24 hours for the test results to come back, so what do you do with people until the results come back - you would have to isolate each person in the airport seperately otherwise they may be infected by someone else waiting for their results, which is not practical.

 

You either keep all planes grounded or assume some risk that people will travel with the virus. In everyday life, this is still likely to happen as well on tubes, trains, buses etc.

Hide under your table mate. Should be ok to come out in a couple of years time.

Surely it's time to start reopening 24 hours supermarkets. I get that they stopped before so that staff could restack shelves without being swamped by mass crowds panic buying bog roll but now that's over I'd have thought that anything which spreads out numbers is a good thing.

Yeah, my dad was absolutely dismayed by this; he had lockdown in China at the beginning of the year and was shocked by it. It's basically not lockdown; it's as far as the government think they can stop the public with a majorly cut police force. Google travel data alone suggests there has only been a 10% drop in travel in the UK. That's why it continues to rise.

I wish people would check things out before posting stuff, it's obvious to anyone that traffic has fallen well below 90%. This took 2 minutes to find https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52461913

Surely it's time to start reopening 24 hours supermarkets. I get that they stopped before so that staff could restack shelves without being swamped by mass crowds panic buying bog roll but now that's over I'd have thought that anything which spreads out numbers is a good thing.

Good shout. I rushed to the shop just before closing last night as we needed stuff. Others did the same. Consequently it was like the rush for last orders at the bar. Longer opening hours can only help with that.

I wish people would check things out before posting stuff, it's obvious to anyone that traffic has fallen well below 90%. This took 2 minutes to find https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52461913

Still not a lockdown though is it? Either way you cut it. There's also no need to be rude. But I do admit to being absolutely way out on that. (Still no excuse for rudeness).

But I did find these rather interesting. It's also obvious to everyone who's been allow out...be thankful you've had the opportunity.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_GB_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Hide under your table mate. Should be ok to come out in a couple of years time.

Don't worry about me, I'm happy to accept the risk (as I have been since this all started) and still travel for work pretty much every day. Probably already had it but not suffered any symptoms. I even shook someone's hand yesterday, living life on the edge, right?

Still not a lockdown though is it? Either way you cut it. There's also no need to be rude. But I do admit to being absolutely way out on that. (Still no excuse for rudeness).

 

But I did find these rather interesting. It's also obvious to everyone who's been allow out...be thankful you've had the opportunity.

 

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_GB_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

No, it's not a lockdown. The Government have never declared it to be a 'lockdown'.

All along they have stated you should only travel for work if you cannot work from home. That's very different from telling everyone to stop travelling and stay home.

Don't worry about me, I'm happy to accept the risk (as I have been since this all started) and still travel for work pretty much every day. Probably already had it but not suffered any symptoms. I even shook someone's hand yesterday, living life on the edge, right?

Little wonder that the death rate is so high in this country. Let’s hope that person you put at risk is ok.

No, it's not a lockdown. The Government have never declared it to be a 'lockdown'.

 

All along they have stated you should only travel for work if you cannot work from home. That's very different from telling everyone to stop travelling and stay home.

And the correlation between that and our figures seems interesting. You are right though, the government have never been completely forthcoming with what it is they exactly wanted us to do.

Don't worry about me, I'm happy to accept the risk (as I have been since this all started) and still travel for work pretty much every day. Probably already had it but not suffered any symptoms. I even shook someone's hand yesterday, living life on the edge, right?

Classic Boris quote right there "I've been shaking hands with all sorts of people with Coronavirus"...what could possibly go wrong? In the election, quite rightly, the government accused Corbyn of being weak and dithering and I think it's those things that have caused us so many issues. Too many people thinking "I'm alright Jack, sod the rest"

Classic Boris quote right there "I've been shaking hands with all sorts of people with Coronavirus"...what could possibly go wrong? In the election, quite rightly, the government accused Corbyn of being weak and dithering and I think it's those things that have caused us so many issues. Too many people thinking "I'm alright Jack, sod the rest"

The I’m alright Jack attitude counteracts the i never want to leave the bedroom and no longer like football brigade who cannot seem to accept that we don’t have total control over our mortality.

Makes me smile great big fat people waddling round Costco in their masks. Shape up eat less and you stand a far better chance.

Again let’s not ever discuss obesity in the death rates.

The I’m alright Jack attitude counteracts the i never want to leave the bedroom and no longer like football brigade who cannot seem to accept that we don’t have total control over our mortality.

 

Makes me smile great big fat people waddling round Costco in their masks. Shape up eat less and you stand a far better chance.

Again let’s not ever discuss obesity in the death rates.

For me it’s the highlight of any election campaign; some massive, fat... sorry, ‘body confident’... w*nker yelling about the disgraceful Tories ruining the NHS. Not a hint of irony in their voice either.

Press conference absolutely exceptional today.

Press conference absolutely exceptional today.

For science totty or content?

The I’m alright Jack attitude counteracts the i never want to leave the bedroom and no longer like football brigade who cannot seem to accept that we don’t have total control over our mortality.

 

Makes me smile great big fat people waddling round Costco in their masks. Shape up eat less and you stand a far better chance.

Again let’s not ever discuss obesity in the death rates.

To be fair, you make some good points there, like ethnic minorities and the old, COVID-19 does seem to like those out of shape. My reason is a small vein (slit ventricles) in the brain chronic neurosurgical issue and I'm definitely not overweight....quite the opposite actually. I hear there's a fair bit of evidence supporting the spread from Italian fans at Anfield though, so I think it's probably wiser to avoid massive crowds at the minute.

For science totty or content?

However, Nikki Kanani the Director of Primary Care for NHS England was great.

The I’m alright Jack attitude counteracts the i never want to leave the bedroom and no longer like football brigade who cannot seem to accept that we don’t have total control over our mortality.

 

Any chance there is anyone in the middle of those two concepts or is the entire world made up of polar opposites?

Classic Boris quote right there "I've been shaking hands with all sorts of people with Coronavirus"...what could possibly go wrong? In the election, quite rightly, the government accused Corbyn of being weak and dithering and I think it's those things that have caused us so many issues. Too many people thinking "I'm alright Jack, sod the rest"

Where was that said?

Where was that said?

Kinda paraphrasing. Obviously Boris did say that but it just reminded me of that.

Kinda paraphrasing. Obviously Boris did say that but it just reminded me of that.

Ah, I see, you made it up.

Ah, I see, you made it up.

"I even shook someone's hand yesterday, living life on the edge, right?"

Not quite. I'm just suggesting it sounds a bit like Boris's "I've shaken many coronavirus people's hands" line.

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-52556544

Nice to see Southampton getting a bit of love here.

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-52556544

 

Nice to see Southampton getting a bit of love here.

That's potentially a serious donation right there!

Interesting that he chose Southampton for the piece. I noticed it's titled "Praying for Saints" so could be because it also relates to the football club nickname.

Sad that the Nuffield has gone into administration, hopefully they will find a way to save it. Southampton needs that place.

Eh. We were talking about December a moment ago.

 

I'm not wading into a different debate with you -suffice to say I prefer to follow serious analysis i.e. the EuroMOMO and even recent work by the FT, not some innumerate and illiterate bumpkin.

 

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

https://www.ft.com/content/0ed8ea34-ebc5-4425-b86a-7a29447de57b

 

Enjoy the rest of your evening little westie.

Check out @statsjamie on Twitter. Estimate 54k deaths related to COVID-19 up to 04May.

Nikki Punani?

Interesting that he chose Southampton for the piece. I noticed it's titled "Praying for Saints" so could be because it also relates to the football club nickname.

There was also the ‘No Future’ piece that he did off Bevois Valley a few years back, highly likely that he has links to the city in some way.

Check out @statsjamie on Twitter. Estimate 54k deaths related to COVID-19 up to 04May.

54k excess deaths is not 54k Coronavirus deaths.

54k excess deaths is not 54k Coronavirus deaths.

According to his twitter, it is Covid related deaths :

I estimate 54,475 excess deaths related to the #COVID19 pandemic in the UK up to the 04 May 2020. Excess deaths being the number of deaths occurring above the average level for the time of year. We are past the peak and excess deaths week on week are falling.

https://twitter.com/statsjamie?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Check out @statsjamie on Twitter. Estimate 54k deaths related to COVID-19 up to 04May.

Will be interesting to see how many excess deaths there are at year end and again at end of 2021- ie how many deaths were people with ordinarily years left to live and how many were very sick people whose end was hastened by a few months.