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It’s a risk and a balance at the centre of most teachers is child’s welfare...well ones I know.

I am sure same as nurseries are vast majority opening? On my local parish forums many won’t send their children.

 

 

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Children numbers will be down but the vast majority of early years childcare settings will be opening if there is demand (assuming government advice doesn't change.) If child welfare is the primary concern then we already know that children benefit massively from school and that the risk from coronavirus is statistically tiny for younger children especially.
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Interesting that someone else is in the same boat as me regarding their staff . 3 of us voluntarily kept working, whilst the other 7 were furloughed. They then un furloughed anyone who wasn’t in the most vulnerable group, but crucially didn’t ask for any evidence, so only another 2 came back. The next round of furlough they decided that only people that produced a government, hospital or doc shielding letter for them,or someone they live with, will be furloughed. None of the letters have been forthcoming, but loads of excuses have been. Gradually, they’ve all come back to work, despite (in their words) being “at risk”, and they’re all full of tales of how they’ve slipped through the net regarding shielding letters. They’re also all full of tales regarding the fun they’ve had during lockdown, the gardens they’ve tidied up, painting they’ve done, & time they’ve rediscovered the enjoyment of family life. Yes, we volunteered to work, but there’s a definite wedge between the 2 groups. It’s not driven by the volunteers thinking they’re better than the rest or “braver”, it’s just the attitude the furloughed workers have displayed since returning. Only 1 person is anal about the PPE/ social distancing rules at work, the others aren’t,clearly showing some just treated it as one long holiday.

 

 

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Sounds like you have been cultivating a leftie work-shy culture in your organisation.

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Why do you suppose the vast majority of nurseries are planning to return on June 1st? Maybe those who run nurseries care about their staff less? What do you reckon? Or could it be that theres a greater financial consideration that both early years workers and managers have that schools and teachers don't have? And the need to save jobs needs to be balanced along with sensible risk management.
I thought you ran a day nursery or is that a different poster?

 

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You could say I know what I'm talking about.
So it is you. That's fair enough at least it gives context to your comments. I thought you were just being a ****...but given you're probably worrying about your business and are probably desperate to get children back into nurseries I'll cut you some slack.

 

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So it is you. That's fair enough at least it gives context to your comments. I thought you were just being a ****...but given you're probably worrying about your business and are probably desperate to get children back into nurseries I'll cut you some slack.

 

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It's not quite accurate to say I run a day nursery but it's similar. I'm desperate for children to get a proper early years education (including my own) and I'm keen for all staff to be as safe as possible whilst doing so. Many childminders have already shut permenently as it is and they won't be replaced any time soon. Its simple for teachers to refuse to come into school because there aren't really any wider knock on effects for them and there are for other businesses.

 

Quite aside from financial considerations, Southampton in particular has some horribly deprived areas and nurseries essentially act as the eyes and ears of social services. No doubt there are some young children in Southampton currently being abused physically and sexually at the moment and no one will know. Its simply not possible for early years to stay closed until September for that reason alone.

Edited by hypochondriac
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Interesting that someone else is in the same boat as me regarding their staff . 3 of us voluntarily kept working, whilst the other 7 were furloughed. They then un furloughed anyone who wasn’t in the most vulnerable group, but crucially didn’t ask for any evidence, so only another 2 came back. The next round of furlough they decided that only people that produced a government, hospital or doc shielding letter for them,or someone they live with, will be furloughed. None of the letters have been forthcoming, but loads of excuses have been. Gradually, they’ve all come back to work, despite (in their words) being “at risk”, and they’re all full of tales of how they’ve slipped through the net regarding shielding letters. They’re also all full of tales regarding the fun they’ve had during lockdown, the gardens they’ve tidied up, painting they’ve done, & time they’ve rediscovered the enjoyment of family life. Yes, we volunteered to work, but there’s a definite wedge between the 2 groups. It’s not driven by the volunteers thinking they’re better than the rest or “braver”, it’s just the attitude the furloughed workers have displayed since returning. Only 1 person is anal about the PPE/ social distancing rules at work, the others aren’t,clearly showing some just treated it as one long holiday.

 

 

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Find myself agreeing with a lot of what you say recently (which is mildly worrying tbh). I have no doubt whatsoever that a certain percentage of furloughees kinda quite like being furloughed (especially with it being nice out), see a 20% pay cut as a reasonable fee, and will happily employ any easily employed excuse ("I live with my grandad") to avoid the cessation of their furloughed status.

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It's not quite accurate to say I run a day nursery but it's similar. I'm desperate for children to get a proper early years education (including my own) and I'm keen for all staff to be as safe as possible whilst doing so. Many childminders have already shut permenently as it is and they won't be replaced any time soon. Its simple for teachers to refuse to come into school because there aren't really any wider knock on effects for them and there are for other businesses.

 

Quite aside from financial considerations, Southampton in particular has some horribly deprived areas and nurseries essentially act as the eyes and ears of social services. No doubt there are some young children in Southampton currently being abused physically and sexually at the moment and no one will know. Its simply not possible for early years to stay closed until September for that reason alone.

 

As someone directly involved with nurseries and schools, I agree with most of what you've written. I would add that all the teachers I know are keen to get back into the classroom scene, and have been working flat out on Zoom etc teaching remotely. They are an easy profession to knock, but do a huge amount of good, including being the eyes and ears of the social services!

I can also tell you that Headteachers have been working flat out to get school's through this time, and trying to plan for June 1st has been very difficult as the gov issue updates to regulations and 'advice' DAILY.

 

Oh to get back to talking about football!

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As someone directly involved with nurseries and schools, I agree with most of what you've written. I would add that all the teachers I know are keen to get back into the classroom scene, and have been working flat out on Zoom etc teaching remotely. They are an easy profession to knock, but do a huge amount of good, including being the eyes and ears of the social services!

I can also tell you that Headteachers have been working flat out to get school's through this time, and trying to plan for June 1st has been very difficult as the gov issue updates to regulations and 'advice' DAILY.

 

Oh to get back to talking about football!

Yes I'm aware of the advice. I think I've said previously it's certainly not all teachers or headteachers but there's definitely an element there who are happy staying at home where they perceive it to be safe with little appetite to leave since they are being paid regardless and there are quite a few who really aren't providing any extra work (unlike my private school friend who has been working flat out every day.) I haven't been a fan of the tone of some of the communication from some headteachers- essentially guilt tripping parents into not sending their children to school, dictating to parents what is going to happen and demanding that the government "make it safe" without outlining precisely what that means. Like you say though, that's not the attitude of all heads or teachers but it's worth pointing out that this element does exist along with the loons- mostly on twitter- droning on about the government being eager to kill children and dispose of half the country.
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Quite aside from financial considerations, Southampton in particular has some horribly deprived areas and nurseries essentially act as the eyes and ears of social services. No doubt there are some young children in Southampton currently being abused physically and sexually at the moment and no one will know. Its simply not possible for early years to stay closed until September for that reason alone.

 

Yes, there's quite some concern about the extremely low number of current referrals from schools and other early year providers.

 

Often it's these places where information about abuse is initially disclosed. Without these, as you say, there will be a lot of sickos getting away with all sorts of disgusting abuse.

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As someone directly involved with nurseries and schools, I agree with most of what you've written. I would add that all the teachers I know are keen to get back into the classroom scene, and have been working flat out on Zoom etc teaching remotely. They are an easy profession to knock, but do a huge amount of good, including being the eyes and ears of the social services!

I can also tell you that Headteachers have been working flat out to get school's through this time, and trying to plan for June 1st has been very difficult as the gov issue updates to regulations and 'advice' DAILY.

 

Oh to get back to talking about football!

 

Agree with this. Ignore the media headlines about unions and militant teachers, most of them want to get back to proper work.

 

My partner works in a special needs school and they have to carry out a risk assessment for each individual child. Then they have to ring every parent. It's taking absolutely ages. Once that's done they have to implement it all. It's not a case of reopening the school and rocking up on 1st June to see what happens!

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American scientists saying that introducing their lockdown a week earlier would have saved approximately 36000 deaths.

 

Obviously there's different circumstances in each country but that's just over a third of their current total, so potentially we could be looking at 10000 less here if we'd introduced ours a week before.

 

I wonder what difference that would have made here? The Cheltenham festival and other events going ahead that weekend may have made a pretty big difference considering the high rate of transmission at the time.

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If you consider the context, would you say a ~£50 replica shirt with a big advert for Gao's money laundering vehicle on the front is also tacky? As ever, if other people want to mug themselves off paying for the prestige of our glorious and historic football club's crest on random crap then I'm all for it.

 

Someone on a budget needing hand sanitiser or loo roll probably isn't going to be relying on the Southampton FC online shop.

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American scientists saying that introducing their lockdown a week earlier would have saved approximately 36000 deaths.

 

Obviously there's different circumstances in each country but that's just over a third of their current total, so potentially we could be looking at 10000 less here if we'd introduced ours a week before.

 

I wonder what difference that would have made here? The Cheltenham festival and other events going ahead that weekend may have made a pretty big difference considering the high rate of transmission at the time.

 

I wonder if the public acceptance would have been different if they had gone earlier. Would the Scousers have quietly accepted their match with Athletico being cancelled?

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The latest statistics suggest that someone under the age of 19 with no existing pre-conditions in the UK faces the following fatality risks compared to Covid19:

 

....210 times as likely to be killed in a car accident (with a pre-esiting condition it's still 69 times as likely)

 

If under the age of 40 (basically all footballers), WITH pre-existing conditions:

 

....You are about 50% more likely to die by being attacked by a dog or being struck by lightning in the UK.

 

Under-40s with NO pre-exiting conditions:

 

....about twice as likely to die from a discharged firework and 5 times as likely to die from being struck by lightning.

 

Given these numbers, I think we can probably re-open the academy and possibly the wider club for all players. But we should probably bus the players into Staplewood rather than allow them to drive themselves, hire a metereologist to keep an eye out for thunderstorms and also ensure we have a licenced dog handler on hand at all times. We should also cancel any club celebrations of Guy Fawkes night and New Years Eve until further notice, in order to guarantee their safety.

Edited by SaintBobby
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The latest statistics suggest that someone under the age of 19 with no existing pre-conditions in the UK faces the following fatality risks compared to Covid19:

 

....210 times as likely to be killed in a car accident (with a pre-esiting condition it's still 69 times as likely)

 

If under the age of 40 (basically all footballers), WITH pre-existing conditions:

 

....You are about 50% more likely to die by being attacked by a dog or being struck by lightning in the UK.

 

Under-40s with NO pre-exiting conditions:

 

....about twice as likely to die from a discharged firework and 5 times as likely to die from being struck by lightning.

 

Given these numbers, I think we can probably re-open the academy and possibly the wider club for all players. But we should probably bus the players into Staplewood rather than allow them to drive themselves, hire a metereologist to keep an eye out for thunderstorms and also ensure we have a licenced dog handler on hand at all times. We should also cancel any club celebrations of Guy Fawkes night and New Years Eve until further notice, in order to guarantee their safety.

 

Some of those stats sound like ********. There have been 4 deaths from fireworks in the UK in the last 24 years. Are you telling me if the disease was widespread in the community we would get one death every six years in under 40s with no pre-existing conditions? And what do you mean by pre-existing conditions? There is evidence that being a fatty boom boom is a co-morbidity. There are plenty of fatty boom booms in the U40s. Unless you want to reintroduce everything you mentioned whilst banning any fat support staff and hermetically sealing all participants away from the rest of the community completely these are facile and silly points to make.

 

FWIW I favour a fairly rapid return to some sort of normality with measures taken to protect the vulnerable and to ensure that non-Covid medical patients get the care they need as well and I would be prioritising that, rather than worrying about football, if I was in government.

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Some of those stats sound like ********. There have been 4 deaths from fireworks in the UK in the last 24 years. Are you telling me if the disease was widespread in the community we would get one death every six years in under 40s with no pre-existing conditions? And what do you mean by pre-existing conditions? There is evidence that being a fatty boom boom is a co-morbidity. There are plenty of fatty boom booms in the U40s. Unless you want to reintroduce everything you mentioned whilst banning any fat support staff and hermetically sealing all participants away from the rest of the community completely these are facile and silly points to make.

 

FWIW I favour a fairly rapid return to some sort of normality with measures taken to protect the vulnerable and to ensure that non-Covid medical patients get the care they need as well and I would be prioritising that, rather than worrying about football, if I was in government.

 

the deaths from other causes are also age specific. Example: v few people die from fireworks, those who do are typically not under 40 (they will survive some nasty burns). Same goes for lightning strikes - the fittest are more likely to survive a hit.

 

It is true that the C19 numbers are based on current deaths - so you might think lockdown has kept a zero or more off the death toll. Maybe it has.

 

So far though, the number who have died is like a very bad bout of seasonal flu. That tends to kill about 10,000 people a year - but in 2014/5, it killed 28,000 Brits - not massively different to the number currently killed by C19.

 

The number of people under 50 who have died from C19 is vanishingly small in aggregate terms - not far off a rounding error to zero.

 

The average age of a death from C19 is 82 in a country where life expectancy is actually just 81.

Edited by SaintBobby
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The latest statistics suggest that someone under the age of 19 with no existing pre-conditions in the UK faces the following fatality risks compared to Covid19:

 

....210 times as likely to be killed in a car accident (with a pre-esiting condition it's still 69 times as likely)

 

If under the age of 40 (basically all footballers), WITH pre-existing conditions:

 

....You are about 50% more likely to die by being attacked by a dog or being struck by lightning in the UK.

 

Under-40s with NO pre-exiting conditions:

 

....about twice as likely to die from a discharged firework and 5 times as likely to die from being struck by lightning.

 

Given these numbers, I think we can probably re-open the academy and possibly the wider club for all players. But we should probably bus the players into Staplewood rather than allow them to drive themselves, hire a metereologist to keep an eye out for thunderstorms and also ensure we have a licenced dog handler on hand at all times. We should also cancel any club celebrations of Guy Fawkes night and New Years Eve until further notice, in order to guarantee their safety.

 

Are car accidents, dog attacks, lighting strikes, firework injuries contagious?

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the deaths from other causes are also age specific. Example: v few people die from fireworks, those who do are typically not under 40 (they will survive some nasty burns). Same goes for lightning strikes - the fittest are more likely to survive a hit.

 

It is true that the C19 numbers are based on current deaths - so you might think lockdown has kept a zero or more off the death toll. Maybe it has.

 

So far though, the number who have died is like a very bad bout of seasonal flu. That tends to kill about 10,000 people a year - but in 2014/5, it killed 28,000 Brits - not massively different to the number currently killed by C19.

 

The number of people under 50 who have died from C19 is vanishingly small in aggregate terms - not far off a rounding error to zero.

 

The average age of a death from C19 is 82 in a country where life expectancy is actually just 81.

 

These are additional deaths. There will have been a high number of 'flu deaths as well this winter although we won't get any data on that until later in the year.

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Are car accidents, dog attacks, lighting strikes, firework injuries contagious?

 

No, but seasonal flu is. we may want to adopt a mid-season winter break in future to ensure that players like Danny Rose, who can survive flu easily, doesn't catch it and then pass it on to his grandparents. Can't be too careful.

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No, but seasonal flu is. we may want to adopt a mid-season winter break in future to ensure that players like Danny Rose, who can survive flu easily, doesn't catch it and then pass it on to his grandparents. Can't be too careful.

 

Covid-19 is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate.

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Just as random. They follow the Poisson distribution as first detailed by Ladislaus Bortkiewicz.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladislaus_Bortkiewicz

 

What is that supposed to mean? Do you have any evidence that Covid 19 follows a poison distribution? All the evidence suggests exponential growth followed by a slow tailing off. That's not a poisson distribution.

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Covid-19 is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate.

 

That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.

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That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.

 

 

If you are going down that route then what about the seasonal deaths caused to the elderly by the cold. Should we give them all a higher pension to help them warm their properties. the cold brings many ailments as well as the flu. The flu jab is available to all pensioners over a certain age. Also there are many others that through their health can get the jab. Stopping football will not stop people getting and spreading flu. Or would you prefer to have a winter lockdown for those cold months?

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That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.

 

For seasonal flu viruses we have established herd immunity and vaccines. We don’t have that with covid (yet). Covid deaths are high even with lockdown and social distancing.

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What is that supposed to mean? Do you have any evidence that Covid 19 follows a poison distribution? All the evidence suggests exponential growth followed by a slow tailing off. That's not a poisson distribution.

 

The possibility of being infected by any individual encounter follows a Poisson distribution. A large number of events each with a small probability of success.

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The possibility of being infected by any individual encounter follows a Poisson distribution. A large number of events each with a small probability of success.

 

The odds of being struck by lightning / abducted by aliens etc. are reasonably constant over time. The odds of being infected by an individual encounter vary significantly along with the rate of community infection, which grows exponentially until suppressed (which may occur naturally or may be the result of intervention measures). It’s a very different event from steady background risks like dogs, weather, cars etc.

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The odds of being struck by lightning / abducted by aliens etc. are reasonably constant over time. The odds of being infected by an individual encounter vary significantly along with the rate of community infection, which grows exponentially until suppressed (which may occur naturally or may be the result of intervention measures). It’s a very different event from steady background risks like dogs, weather, cars etc.

The figures are not comparable. One is a cumulative total, the other is a distribution of individual events.

 

Not worth getting our knickers in a twist over though.

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It's probably worth noting, as an aside, that elite athletes are more susceptible to serious complications (due to reduced immunosuppression & pro-inflammatory response etc) IF they develop COVID-19 than fit, active and healthy people of the same age. Whilst they probably have the strength and youth to survive, long term complications are a genuine concern for any top level athlete.

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It's probably worth noting, as an aside, that elite athletes are more susceptible to serious complications (due to reduced immunosuppression & pro-inflammatory response etc) IF they develop COVID-19 than fit, active and healthy people of the same age. Whilst they probably have the strength and youth to survive, long term complications are a genuine concern for any top level athlete.

 

Didnt seem to affect the fitness of Hudson-Odoi.

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Watching some old Liverpool / Arsenal game on the beeb. It demonstrates how important bringing in the pass-back rule was. Really drags the game down passing back to the keeper all the time.

 

Crowds were much better. Seeing Arsenal fans going mental at the end was a joy. Not one Korean phone photo being taken.

 

I needed reminding that you never knew how much time the ref would add on. Added to the drama

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Watching some old Liverpool / Arsenal game on the beeb. It demonstrates how important bringing in the pass-back rule was. Really drags the game down passing back to the keeper all the time.

 

That was a great night. Liverpool hasn’t lost at home by 2 goals for 4 years I think it was. They were a great team and Arsenal to do it in injury time to win the league was incredible. We will never see another finish to a season like that again.

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That is true....but why is the line drawn between seasonal flu and Covid-19? We seem to be wiling to do absolutely everything to combat the latter, but not to really disrupt our lives at all to combat the former. The former does kill about 10,000 a year every year (sometimes 20,000+). It seems a relatively small sacrifice to simply suspend the football season over the Winter to mitigate this. I'm not suggesting a full on, economy-wide lockdown, just no football in, say, December, January and February to limit the spread of flu. Seems a small price to pay to save some lives. Football just isn't that important. The numbers of lives saved could be dozens, maybe even hundreds.

 

Agree with measures to reduce seasonal flu. But don't downplay Covid, the excess deaths compared to the average for time of year has been more like 60k+ deaths.

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Crowds were much better. Seeing Arsenal fans going mental at the end was a joy. Not one Korean phone photo being taken.

 

I needed reminding that you never knew how much time the ref would add on. Added to the drama

And the goal scorer's celebration after the goals.....no rehearsed silliness, acrobatics or miming, just running about and jumping with joy (whilst nearly kicking your teammate in the chops).

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That was a great night. Liverpool hasn’t lost at home by 2 goals for 4 years I think it was. They were a great team and Arsenal to do it in injury time to win the league was incredible. We will never see another finish to a season like that again.

 

My best memories of going to football are mostly stuck in the 70s/80s but tbf, this one's up there with drama (crazy it's already way back in the 2011/12 season)

 

[video=youtube;8q2TrK-u-qY]

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