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Posted (edited)

Lol. 

Even Jezza managed to win Hartlepool.

In 2004 the Tories came 4th in the seat with 9.7% of the vote. 
 

Sir Kier playing a blinder, but as Timmy told us it’s all part of a cunning plan and he doesn’t want too peak to early. 
 

 

1F5A8FBC-70D5-4597-9933-8FC726A7B7CC.jpeg

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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27 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Sir Kier playing a blinder, but as Timmy told us it’s all part of a cunning plan and he doesn’t want too peak to early. 
 

Really? When did I say that? Or did you simply lie  / not understand when I made the point about all modern opposition parties focussing on criticising the government rather than laying out their policies too much ahead of a general election.

Which is it? Would love to know.   

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2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Really? When did I say that? Or did you simply lie  / not understand when I made the point about all modern opposition parties focussing on criticising the government rather than laying out their policies too much ahead of a general election.

Which is it? Would love to know.   

Plan's working well!

Focussing on criticising the Government seems to have lost them a stronghold seat that has never been in conservative hands...

Time for a rethink?

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1 minute ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Plan's working well!

Focussing on criticising the Government seems to have lost them a stronghold seat that has never been in conservative hands...

Time for a rethink?

By elections are by elections. There are 650 seats why would you change a strategy geared to winning a General election for a by election? 

I'm no particular fan of Starmer. I said at the time I thought there were better candidates who didn't come forward. He is certainly not of the same calibre as Blair or David Miliband - and that is the level a Labour politican needs to be at to win convincingly.   

  

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It’s the vaccine bounce plus Tories basically doing an extreme Labour and giving anyone who wants it loads of cash from the magic money tree. So many on here would be pissing their pants if it was a Labour govt helping the self employed clear their mortgages, fuelling a house price boom losing billions to fraudulent claims. All talk about people feeling the pinch is bs as the vast majority have never felt so wealthy. And short memories as govt doing a great job with vaccines so any previous fuck ups are forgotten. So basically what are a Labour to campaign on? No one gives a shit about morality.

Labour might have got a few more if Starmer had laid out that mouthy prick in the pub.

 

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2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

If you can't win a by election, then there's no hope of winning a general election, especially a by election for a seat you have never lost, ever.

Have you heard the phrase ‘a week is a long time in politics’?

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As ever, when Labour lose it is not their fault it is the fault of stupid people or something else blah blah blah. Is there any Labourite anywhere that can admit they need a total rethink and restructure to get anywhere? Please?

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1 hour ago, CollinsDic said:

As ever, when Labour lose it is not their fault it is the fault of stupid people or something else blah blah blah. Is there any Labourite anywhere that can admit they need a total rethink and restructure to get anywhere? Please?

When either side lose it is never their fault.

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Posted (edited)

3 months on from leaving the EU, in a constituency that voted 70% "Leave" in the referendum, at a time of crisis, with the Covid vaccination program in full swing and when going against the Government is almost unthinkable, Labour were never going to win.

Edited by badgerx16
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24 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

3 months on from leaving the EU, in a constituency that voted 70% "Leave" in the referendum, at a time of crisis, with the Covid vaccination program in full swing and when going against the Government is almost unthinkable, Labour were never going to win.

In a seat Labour only held last time because the Brexit party split the vote.

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5 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

In a seat Labour only held last time because the Brexit party split the vote.

Is that the same reason for the other results?

At time of writing, Cons up 4, Lab down 3 in councils.  Cons up 95, Lab down 115 in councillors.

Got to be down to Brexit hasn't it (although I thought Brexit was just for racists and loons!)?

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15 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Is that the same reason for the other results?

At time of writing, Cons up 4, Lab down 3 in councils.  Cons up 95, Lab down 115 in councillors.

Got to be down to Brexit hasn't it (although I thought Brexit was just for racists and loons!)?

Just goes to show how many 'racists and loons' there are 😉

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6 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Is that the same reason for the other results?

At time of writing, Cons up 4, Lab down 3 in councils.  Cons up 95, Lab down 115 in councillors.

Got to be down to Brexit hasn't it (although I thought Brexit was just for racists and loons!)?

Probably not. But in Hartlepool the facts are simple, the Cons taking the seat was just delayed by the Brexit party who took 10000 votes in 2019. Where are those voters going to go now the Brexit party is over. To the party that secured Brexit or to the party that put up a remainer candidate. 

Losing the Hartlepol dead rubber means nothing in grand scale of things, it was lost before yesterday.

Brexit has redrawn the political lines and it favours the conservatives at the moment, I don't think Labour have worked out how to repond, they haven't sorted out their offer yet, but they have time before the next GE.

The twin tails of brexit and covid will wag for a while yet.

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Decent article here analysing the factors https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/six-reasons-labour-lost-hartlepool-byelection_uk_6094fdd9e4b0b37f89476272

Brexit Party was the sole reason Corbyn won there last time, 99% of the 10k votes Farage polled would have gone blue. The Conservatives have also spent or promising to spend shed loads in those towns and areas, forgetting that austerity and the 1980s caused much of the deprivation in the first place. As long as the victories keep coming, Boris’s blurred conservativism with a bigger state (which can be justified post-austerity and pandemic) the Tory right will be nullified. At some point the magic money tree will stop giving to those areas and that’s when the acid test kicks in.

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What is interesting is that Europe was seen as Tory problem. Yes Labour had some marxist loons that wanted to leave but that was nothing like the fault line running through the Tory party.

No one really appreciated the same fault line in the Labour support and it turns out that you can cover up a fault line in a party far more easily* than you can one in a nationwide support. This is why people feel ignored.

Brexit has enabled the decade long Tory government to look like the change candidate, something that has always appealed to voters.

Just like Thatcherism united the working class and the progressive wings of the Labour movement, Brexit has broadened the conservative church. It's a gift to the Cons, but won't give forever.

*especially a party that see themselves as born to lead, who would kill their granny to keep hold of power.

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Posted (edited)

Lol love it. 
 

It’s because of Brexit, it’s because of the vaccine, it because of Jezza, it’s because they’re chucking money around. Lefties  just don’t get it. They took the sweaty’s for granted and got kicked out, they’ve taken the Working class for granted and are getting kicked out. The Tories are now the party of the working man and women, whilst Labour is the party of woke metropolitan middle classes and Taffs.I doubt they’ll ever win England again.

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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9 hours ago, buctootim said:

By elections are by elections. There are 650 seats why would you change a strategy geared to winning a General election for a by election? 

I'm no particular fan of Starmer. I said at the time I thought there were better candidates who didn't come forward. He is certainly not of the same calibre as Blair or David Miliband - and that is the level a Labour politican needs to be at to win convincingly.   

  

If there were better candidates that didn't come forward, by default, that makes them pretty shit candidates.

If they're not prepared to step forward and save their party (which is dying on its arse), who would want them running the country anyway?

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1 hour ago, saint1977 said:

Decent article here analysing the factors https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/six-reasons-labour-lost-hartlepool-byelection_uk_6094fdd9e4b0b37f89476272

Brexit Party was the sole reason Corbyn won there last time, 99% of the 10k votes Farage polled would have gone blue. The Conservatives have also spent or promising to spend shed loads in those towns and areas, forgetting that austerity and the 1980s caused much of the deprivation in the first place. As long as the victories keep coming, Boris’s blurred conservativism with a bigger state (which can be justified post-austerity and pandemic) the Tory right will be nullified. At some point the magic money tree will stop giving to those areas and that’s when the acid test kicks in.

So how come Corbyn won the seat easily in 2017?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

Lol. If the answer from the corbynites is more socialism then you're never getting back in power. 

Starmer's Labour is the new Pasok

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pasokification

Edit: funny though because "socialist" Welsh Labour have seen a good election day despite Mark Drakeford generally being seen as a Corbynite. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8876225/First-Minister-Mark-Drakeford-backs-radical-socialist-traditions.html

Edited by Jonnyboy
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Tories are basically pissing away money but the old gammon don’t care cos it’s their guys. Phoney and vacuous and no substance.

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16 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

Those bloody poor people didn’t understand what they voted for again 😡 

 

 

I think they did actually, heavy investment in their region as part of the levelling up agenda and Brexit which they clearly are passionate about. The vaccine rollout would have given the government an impregnable position. If another party was spending that amount, the Tories and papers would be screaming blue murder but different rules apply when it’s their spending. I agree with the spending FWIW, the areas and overall economy is dangerously uneven and lacking opportunities for social mobility, not just on geography grounds either. 

It’s a inverse situation to New Labour where Hague, IDS and Howard had nowhere to go late-90s to mid 2000s until Iraq and East European people movement came to the fore and alarmed the working class vote, although it took Brexit to really translate it. Funny old world where Hartlepool has a Tory MP and Canterbury Labour. Would have been long odds in the 1980s on that!

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10 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

 

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There’s the cultural rabbit hole the Labour left has fallen into. You could see the tactic from the M1 but the old left can’t help themselves. Friend of mine was a journalist at all the party conferences and even in the Blair peak years the old left would put forward motions such as ‘the PLP should adopt more pro-Palestinian policies’ and be voted down.

The attacks by Starmer on procurement corruption didn’t land either but that was inevitable given the vaccine roll out success and in the NE, having spent time there, publics think most politicians are on the take anyway. Dating back to T Dan Smith they may have a point. Actually tackling the sharpest socio-economic inequality and holding the Tories to not rolling back worker rights will help all of their target audiences which they have to address if they want to be competing to win again against someone other than Theresa May. 

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1 hour ago, rallyboy said:

When there are so many instances of MPs talking absolute crap about their own maths, any specific reason you chose to promote that one?

 

#SecretCrush

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12 hours ago, saint1977 said:

I think they did actually, heavy investment in their region as part of the levelling up agenda and Brexit which they clearly are passionate about. The vaccine rollout would have given the government an impregnable position. If another party was spending that amount, the Tories and papers would be screaming blue murder but different rules apply when it’s their spending. I agree with the spending FWIW, the areas and overall economy is dangerously uneven and lacking opportunities for social mobility, not just on geography grounds either. 

It’s a inverse situation to New Labour where Hague, IDS and Howard had nowhere to go late-90s to mid 2000s until Iraq and East European people movement came to the fore and alarmed the working class vote, although it took Brexit to really translate it. Funny old world where Hartlepool has a Tory MP and Canterbury Labour. Would have been long odds in the 1980s on that!

Spot on although also hindered by the wokeness which grates with a lot of fair minded people

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53 minutes ago, whelk said:

Spot on although also hindered by the wokeness which grates with a lot of fair minded people

I actually think the wokeness is a bigger factor than many think. Being unable to define what a woman is and the whole transgender women on all female shortlists turned off a lot of people I know then the whole statue thing, taking the knee and all the rubbish and the general sentiment of being anti British and and a distaste for any sort of patriotism is going to turn off many. 

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Sending a remainer as candidate to hartlepool certainly seems to have been a tactical error. You'd wonder if it was a case of rewarding friends/allies rather than making the right choice.

Still i feel they probably would have lost anyway with the timing of the election and some of the local issues. Starmer's unlucky in that i thought he did a decent job of criticising tories for their Covid failures  last year but the success of the tories vaccine decision has washed away all potential issues with their original mistakes.

I do feel he needs to clarify what his labour stand for policy wise. I''d say Tories are very weak environmentally, so that would be an area i'd suggest to push.

The whole stupid woke nonsense is certainly an issue for the party. I generally think he's less prone to swaying to the beat of that crowd than others in his party but he's got to find some way beyond superfificial flag waving to get out in front of these culture war arguments otherwise the tories will keep handing labour defeats outside of areas like london.

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35 minutes ago, Baird of the land said:

 

I do feel he needs to clarify what his labour stand for policy wise. I''d say Tories are very weak environmentally, so that would be an area i'd suggest to push.

Yeah, that’s really going to win back The Red Wall. Green pony, it’s what people in Hartlepool & Bolsover are crying out for. 

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