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The United Kingdom and the Death of Boris Johnson as we know it.


CB Fry

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  1. 1. SWF (Non Legally Binding) General Election

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44 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

You seen the size of her arse though? Big enough to have it’s own gravitational pull. That’s probably what’s attracting you.

She is, what my old mum would describe as, "dumpy".

But from the neck up, I'm with Lighthouse.

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It would seem that Penny Pompey Mordaunt is descending even lower in the Tory pecking order. A couple of  years ago she was fairly short odds to be the next party leader. I guess that she has been out gunned in the "Tory MP that the gammons would most like to shag stakes" by Liz Truss.

 

 

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On the bright side, Boris has finally broken up the worst performing, integrity-free, over-promoted, corruption-riddled, sycophantic UK cabinet in living memory.

You have to feel sorry for the PM, he must have been seething at whoever the dithering simpleton was who appointed them all, but with top quality performers like Truss now in control of really important stuff, I'm sure things will improve. 

Her performance on trade deals has certainly highlighted how good she is.

 

 

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The new Culture Secretary:

https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/2014/04/begorrah-nadine-dorries-four-streets-bad-novel-riddled-shamrockese

Quote

After her remarkable flights from fact in her statements on abortion, it’s disappointing to find that Dorries is just not very good at making things up. Things in the novel appear to happen purely because they seem like a good idea at the time to the author. Characters potter in and then out again as soon as their service to the plot is done. The kitchen table that was the site of savage congress is revealed later to be made of Formica, which seems a material so unequal to the pounding described that one can only suspect transubstantiation. And when Dorries tries to sound a hopeful note of life at its end, she has apparently forgotten that the life in question is a foetus resulting from rape and growing inside a fourteen-year-old girl. In the face of such awfulness, I put on my best Oirish burr and say: Jaysus, Mary and Joseph, feck this shite.

 

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On 24/08/2020 at 14:27, Lord Duckhunter said:

Lol, still not over it, dry your eyes. 
 

Shame  those massive  racists Tony Benn, Peter Shore, Barbera Castle & Bob Crow weren’t around to celebrate the right wing deception & takeover they’d argued so passionately for, whilst they were alive. It’s an absolute disgrace that good intelligent people like your good self weren’t given an extra vote, and that half wits were able to cast theirs. One man one vote only works when it produces the vote the top top intelligentsia want.
 

“Power to the people”, fuck that . Power to the elites....

Yes Brexit did appeal to some racists but the £350m hour or whatever it was for the NHS appealed too and there is no evidence the NHS is getting extra funding because of Brexit

 

If you think otherwise do not hesitate to show me 

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1 hour ago, John B said:

Yes Brexit did appeal to some racists but the £350m hour or whatever it was for the NHS appealed too and there is no evidence the NHS is getting extra funding because of Brexit

 

If you think otherwise do not hesitate to show me 

This article (https://fullfact.org/health/nhs-england-394-million-more/) seems to explain things quite well, albeit as per the situation in 2018.

In summary, I think what its saying is: "yes, since Brexit we're spending £394m extra per week on the NHS but (a) we'd have needed to do that regardless and (b) it's offset by the some of the costs of leaving the EU anyway."

So, I guess it could be argued that the suggestive/un-enactable statement (on the campaign bus) - that the money that goes into the EU coffers could be diverted to the NHS - is true to an extent but it doesn't take into account the bigger picture.

(notwithstanding that people would have to be somewhat intellectually challenged if they thought an un-enactable suggestion on the side of a bus was some kind of 'promise' in the first place)

 

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1 hour ago, trousers said:

This article (https://fullfact.org/health/nhs-england-394-million-more/) seems to explain things quite well, albeit as per the situation in 2018.

In summary, I think what its saying is: "yes, since Brexit we're spending £394m extra per week on the NHS but (a) we'd have needed to do that regardless and (b) it's offset by the some of the costs of leaving the EU anyway."

So, I guess it could be argued that the suggestive/un-enactable statement (on the campaign bus) - that the money that goes into the EU coffers could be diverted to the NHS - is true to an extent but it doesn't take into account the bigger picture.

(notwithstanding that people would have to be somewhat intellectually challenged if they thought an un-enactable suggestion on the side of a bus was some kind of 'promise' in the first place)

 

What is unenactable about giving the NHS more money? Why should that bus statement not be held to account? It was afterall central to the brexit offer and was said by many campaigning brexit politicians as well as being plastered on the side of the bus.

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1 hour ago, Fan The Flames said:

Why should that bus statement not be held to account?

Because it was worded as a suggestion, not a committment (even if it had been worded as a committment, they weren't in a position to do so)

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4 hours ago, trousers said:

I meant in the sense that the people making the suggestion weren't in a position to enact it because they weren't in government. 

Ok, understand now.

4 hours ago, trousers said:

Because it was worded as a suggestion, not a committment (even if it had been worded as a committment, they weren't in a position to do so)

Yes but it was more than a bus slogan, your link had it as a Theresa May quote. One of the major points of the Brexit debate was to spend the club fees on our own stuff. And Team Brexit wasn't non political it included government MPs. So it was far more than a suggestion.

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22 minutes ago, Fan The Flames said:

Ok, understand now.

Yes but it was more than a bus slogan, your link had it as a Theresa May quote. One of the major points of the Brexit debate was to spend the club fees on our own stuff. And Team Brexit wasn't non political it included government MPs. So it was far more than a suggestion.

Fair enough. I guess there will always be different opinions on how significant it was. It certainly didn't influence my decision one way or another. Maybe it did influence others. We'll probably never know how significant it was in determining the referendum result. 

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On 16/09/2021 at 22:20, trousers said:

Fair enough. I guess there will always be different opinions on how significant it was. It certainly didn't influence my decision one way or another. Maybe it did influence others. We'll probably never know how significant it was in determining the referendum result. 

Well, Cummings has said in interviews that VL would not have won without it.

It was a claim with huge cut-through and spontaneous recall with the general public - even now people remember it well, which is a huge achievement for any advertising slogan/pitch let alone a political one.

And there was research showing huge chunks of the population believed it, so it was hugely effective on every single metric. Plenty of people believe the central premise even now.

There's not really "a debate" around how influential it was. It was hugely influential and believed. The people who created it planned for it to be influential and it was. That's why they put it everywhere. 

Being that the entire vote could have swung the other way on a small percentage and how close it was, it is very easy to say that the message convinced enough to swing the result in a particular direction.

You have a marginal vote and in the middle of that campaign you have the single most effective political message in the last thirty odd years. It clearly moved the needle.

 

But I know that doesn't suit your usual "ah well, I'll guess we'll never know" routine, so not really sure why I've bothered to write that out. But there we are. 

Edited by CB Fry
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2 hours ago, CB Fry said:

Well, Cummings has said in interviews that VL would not have won without it.

It was a claim with huge cut-through and spontaneous recall with the general public - even now people remember it well, which is a huge achievement for any advertising slogan/pitch let alone a political one.

And there was research showing huge chunks of the population believed it, so it was hugely effective on every single metric. Plenty of people believe the central premise even now.

There's not really "a debate" around how influential it was. It was hugely influential and believed. The people who created it planned for it to be influential and it was. That's why they put it everywhere. 

Being that the entire vote could have swung the other way on a small percentage and how close it was, it is very easy to say that the message convinced enough to swing the result in a particular direction.

You have a marginal vote and in the middle of that campaign you have the single most effective political message in the last thirty odd years. It clearly moved the needle.

 

But I know that doesn't suit your usual "ah well, I'll guess we'll never know" routine, so not really sure why I've bothered to write that out. But there we are. 

Fair points. Perhaps it underlines how poor the 'Remain' campaign was given they were seemingly incapable of debunking such a ridiculous slogan.

P.s. if Dominic 'Paragon of Truth' Cummings says it was decisive then it must be an undisputable fact I guess... ;)

I still maintain you'd have to be extremely intellectually challenged if a suggestive slogan on the side of a bus was the deciding factor on whether to vote leave or remain. It didn't fool you or I, and we're unlikely to feature on Mensa's roll of honour any time soon. 

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On 16/09/2021 at 17:00, Fan The Flames said:

What is unenactable about giving the NHS more money? Why should that bus statement not be held to account? It was afterall central to the brexit offer and was said by many campaigning brexit politicians as well as being plastered on the side of the bus.

Added to the fact a lot more of the VL political members are part of the government than was the case in 2015 they should absolutely be held responsible for all of the lies including the bus. Can’t just blame it all on Cummings. 

The vaccine honeymoon is starting to fade and the BS from Brexit starting to come home to roost although it will take years to fully emerge in its ugly glory. The COVID mitigation for Starmer is coming to an end and he needs to start cutting through this winter onwards. David Miliband would be wiping the floor with Boris and co, Unions really did Labour over by manipulating to Ed Miliband as leader. And I’m not an even a Labour supporter and can see that.

LD’s have to focus on SE seats worst hit by Brexit and rebuild that way, don’t compete where Labour vote strong enough to topple Cons and vice versa. No coalitions but vote by vote cooperation. 

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3 hours ago, trousers said:

Fair points. Perhaps it underlines how poor the 'Remain' campaign was given they were seemingly incapable of debunking such a ridiculous slogan.

P.s. if Dominic 'Paragon of Truth' Cummings says it was decisive then it must be an undisputable fact I guess... ;)

I still maintain you'd have to be extremely intellectually challenged if a suggestive slogan on the side of a bus was the deciding factor on whether to vote leave or remain. It didn't fool you or I, and we're unlikely to feature on Mensa's roll of honour any time soon. 

With CB Fry on this one, the sloganeering from VL was effective. Most people don’t follow politics. This snippet swung the needle. 

As usual they won’t be held responsible and eventually led to Bozo Johnson.

Advertising is effective. That’s why it exists.

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17 minutes ago, Warriorsaint said:

With CB Fry on this one, the sloganeering from VL was effective. Most people don’t follow politics. This snippet swung the needle. 

As usual they won’t be held responsible and eventually led to Bozo Johnson.

Advertising is effective. That’s why it exists.

Even if I can be convinced that it 'swung the needle', one thing that is puzzling me is why on Earth the Remain campaign didn't counter it with their own 'effective advertising'. 

Given how it was so obviously a campaign winner (so I'm being told), why didn't the Remain campaign succeed in exposing it's deception? Given how it was obviously unachievable, surely it would have been easy to debunk?

I still maintain the result panned out the way it did partly due to the ineptitude of those promoting the cause for remaining. (In other words, it's your fault ;) #tongueincheek)

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11 minutes ago, trousers said:

Even if I can be convinced that it 'swung the needle', one thing that is puzzling me is why on Earth the Remain campaign didn't counter it with their own 'effective advertising'. 

Given how it was so obviously a campaign winner (so I'm being told), why didn't the Remain campaign succeed in exposing it's deception? Given how it was obviously unachievable, surely it would have been easy to debunk?

I still maintain the result panned out the way it did partly due to the ineptitude of those promoting the cause for remaining. (In other words, it's your fault ;) #tongueincheek)

Its true the leave camp had a better campaign. They also had an easy message to sell - "leave and everything will be better because we can control all the bad stuff that you dont like". Remain said "thats not true, its a lie'"  and people were left with 'he said she said' so they believed what they wanted to believe.     

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40 minutes ago, Warriorsaint said:

With CB Fry on this one, the sloganeering from VL was effective. Most people don’t follow politics. This snippet swung the needle. 

As usual they won’t be held responsible and eventually led to Bozo Johnson.

Advertising is effective. That’s why it exists.

It is indeed. That is why it is a multi billion pound industry. The genius of advertising is to find a simple idea that will subliminally speak to those not strongly committed either way and tip them in your direction. The bus slogan and “Take Back Control” we’re never going to turn Remainers around or make firm leavers more so, but they tweaked those in the less committed camps to go and vote their way. You don’t need to convince the whole electorate of the validity of your argument, just the floaters or those who can’t usually be bothered. I can remember a number of snappy slogans used by the Brexiteers, none from the Remainers and I was a Remainer.

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In a political campaign it is easier and more effective to use slogans rather than presenting facts, which is why Trump got so much traction out of "MAGA".

In 'debating' the issues during the referendum VL simply deployed the "Project Fear" meme to counter Remain 'facts'.

 

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25 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Its true the leave camp had a better campaign. They also had an easy message to sell - "leave and everything will be better because we can control all the bad stuff that you dont like". Remain said "thats not true, its a lie'"  and people were left with 'he said she said' so they believed what they wanted to believe.     

Their campaign was so effective.I an as Left wing, woke, European as anyone and I was nearly swayed by the Turkey is about to join EU and flood Europe with Economic migrants.

Looking back I am horrified by that thought but it got in my head.

Just shows how good they were at stoking fear.

 

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6 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

In a political campaign it is easier and more effective to use slogans rather than presenting facts, which is why Trump got so much traction out of "MAGA".

In 'debating' the issues during the referendum VL simply deployed the "Project Fear" meme to counter Remain 'facts'.

 

I could be mis-remembering here, but I always thought it was the Remain camp that kept playing the fear card, which is why they came across as having a negative campaign rather than a positive one?

As I say, could be my dodgy memory (I am human, after all...)

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40 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

In a political campaign it is easier and more effective to use slogans rather than presenting facts, which is why Trump got so much traction out of "MAGA".

In 'debating' the issues during the referendum VL simply deployed the "Project Fear" meme to counter Remain 'facts'.

 

The problem remain had was a lot of their supporters had spent years pretending they were euro sceptical. Cameron’s laughable suggestion that had he not got significant treaty change he’d recommend leaving, is a case in point. He lied, plain and simple, and people saw through it.
 

People like Ken Clarke were extremely rare on the pro side, somebody who told it like it was, how it was going to be, and fuck the consequences to his career (had he bullshitted like major & Cameron he’d have led the party). The remain establishment had 40 years to sell us the vision, but they never did. They always criticised The EU, always saying it needed reform or change. Their argument was The EU’s shit, but being outside is even shittier. That’s no way to win hearts and minds and no way to win a referendum.

 

Vote leave we’re pushing at an open door, a door left ajar by people pretending they were euro sceptic until it mattered. It was too late by then. The narrative was its shit, but do we make things better by leaving or staying in and reforming it? 

Edited by Lord Duckhunter
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27 minutes ago, trousers said:

I could be mis-remembering here, but I always thought it was the Remain camp that kept playing the fear card, which is why they came across as having a negative campaign rather than a positive one?

As I say, could be my dodgy memory (I am human, after all...)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear

It seems that Boris started it.

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2 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The problem remain had was a lot of their supporters had spent years pretending they were euro sceptical. Cameron’s laughable suggestion that had he not got significant treaty change he’d recommend leaving, is a case in point. He lied, plain and simple, and people saw through it.
 

People like Ken Clarke were extremely rare on the pro side, somebody who told it like it was, how it was going to be, and fuck the consequences to his career (had he bullshitted like major & Cameron he’d have led the party). The remain establishment had 40 years to sell us the vision, but they never did. They always criticised The EU, always saying it needed reform or change. Their argument was The EU’s shit, but being outside is even shittier. That’s no way to win hearts and minds and no way to win a referendum.

 

Vote leave we’re pushing at an open door, a door left ajar by people pretending they were euro sceptic until it mattered. It was too late by then. The narrative was its shit, but do we make things better by leaving or staying in and reforming it? 

Sad but true. Most politicians had used the EU as a whipping boy for decades, an easy blame every time they lacked the courage to tell the public the truth about failure of domestic policy or their own inability to control a problem. Looked ridiculous when they turned around and said actually....    

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2 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The problem remain had was a lot of their supporters had spent years pretending they were euro sceptical. Cameron’s laughable suggestion that had he not got significant treaty change he’d recommend leaving, is a case in point. He lied, plain and simple, and people saw through it.
 

People like Ken Clarke were extremely rare on the pro side, somebody who told it like it was, how it was going to be, and fuck the consequences to his career (had he bullshitted like major & Cameron he’d have led the party). The remain establishment had 40 years to sell us the vision, but they never did. They always criticised The EU, always saying it needed reform or change. Their argument was The EU’s shit, but being outside is even shittier. That’s no way to win hearts and minds and no way to win a referendum.

 

Vote leave we’re pushing at an open door, a door left ajar by people pretending they were euro sceptic until it mattered. It was too late by then. The narrative was its shit, but do we make things better by leaving or staying in and reforming it? 

Very true.  The Leave team were vehemently against the EU. The Remain team didn't have the same passion or desire.

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Most political campaigns, be they for Brexit or an election, are often in reality only aimed at maybe half of the electorate.

Take the next election, there could be approx 20% of people who will always vote one way and another 20% who will always vote the other.

Very little will change these people's minds, the PM could be murdering puppies or Starmer could be tossing off farm animals and the two sets of entrenched supporters will still find a way to blame the other party.

So the likes of Cummings and other campaign managers don't bother messaging that 40-50% as it's a waste of time, those voters are already in the bag or lost, the real target is the less-informed and less engaged voter in the middle, the casual easily-led.

Show enough of them a shiny bus of mad shit and your work is done -  this demographic don't really do politics, have no real interest, and often can't grasp the connection between their vote and their lives, hence the self-harm of some industries like fishing and farming.

And if you think that sounds patronising, you need to get out more and meet the public, or read their social media.

There are people out there who don't know anything about the issues but their vote is equal to yours, which is fine, but some of them use it like a fucking hand grenade and then walk away, often not even realising that the damage was done by them.

The bus was aimed at those people, and whether you liked it or not, it was a stroke of marketing genius, big letters, simple message, dismissed by anyone with half a brain, but gleefully gobbled down by the disinterested.

The sad new way to win elections is to promise crazy stuff which you can never deliver, but make sure have an oven-ready excuse to sell to the key 50% of voters when you inevitably fail.

They will forgive you, because they've probably forgotten what you promised anyway.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, rallyboy said:

Show enough of them a shiny bus of mad shit and your work is done -  this demographic don't really do politics, have no real interest, and often can't grasp the connection between their vote and their lives, hence the self-harm of some industries like fishing and farming.

And if you think that sounds patronising, you need to get out more and meet the public, or read their social media.

There are people out there who don't know anything about the issues but their vote is equal to yours, which is fine, but some of them use it like a fucking hand grenade and then walk away, often not even realising that the damage was done by them.

The bus was aimed at those people, and whether you liked it or not, it was a stroke of marketing genius, big letters, simple message, dismissed by anyone with half a brain, but gleefully gobbled down by the disinterested.

The sad new way to win elections is to promise crazy stuff which you can never deliver, but make sure have an oven-ready excuse to sell to the key 50% of voters when you inevitably fail.

So all Cameron and Corbyn needed to do was paint "Free barbeque flavour hoola-hoops for life - Vote Remain" on the side of a Winnebago and they'd have been victorious? You could've bally well told them at the time so they didn't have to do all that gritt d-teeth "the EU is great" malarkey FFS

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  • Lighthouse changed the title to The United Kingdom and the Death of Boris Johnson as we know it.

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