Ralph Hasenhuttl

[SKD]

1 minute ago, Give it to Ron said:

There is a 20m release clause....according to Crook and Talkshite today 

£20m!? Jesus, we’re in balls deep with Ralph then aren’t we. Who in the hell agreed to that. 

[Give it to Ron]

3 minutes ago, SKD said:

£20m!? Jesus, we’re in balls deep with Ralph then aren’t we. Who in the hell agreed to that. 

talkSPORT’s man on the south coast added: “I think he is there for the long haul. He signed a new contract before the season started.

“The release clause in that contract, if a top club wanted to take him, is £20million. So that’s a significant amount of money to pay if someone wants to prise him away.

“I do expect him to be there for the foreseeable future, but he does need to make some adjustments.

 

it came from Crook so probably bull

Edited 13 April, 2021 by Give it to Ron

[JustinSFC]

4 minutes ago, Give it to Ron said:

talkSPORT’s man on the south coast added: “I think he is there for the long haul. He signed a new contract before the season started.

“The release clause in that contract, if a top club wanted to take him, is £20million. So that’s a significant amount of money to pay if someone wants to prise him away.

“I do expect him to be there for the foreseeable future, but he does need to make some adjustments.

 

it came from Crook so probably bull

That isn't quite the same thing as a sack clause is it?

That's if a club wants to take him.

That's not the same as dismissal for poor performance/results is it?

Also, like you say, that's Alex Crook and I'm not sure we'd give Crook that level of info.

Anyway who knows.

[SKD]

2 minutes ago, JustinSFC said:

That isn't quite the same thing as a sack clause is it?

That's if a club wants to take him.

That's not the same as dismissal for poor performance/results is it?

Also, like you say, that's Alex Crook and I'm not sure we'd give Crook that level of info.

Anyway who knows.

Yep completely different. That’ll be the compensation cost should a certain team come in for him, although I even doubt that £20m figure as it seems very, very high. 

[Give it to Ron]

4 minutes ago, JustinSFC said:

That isn't quite the same thing as a sack clause is it?

That's if a club wants to take him.

That's not the same as dismissal for poor performance/results is it?

Also, like you say, that's Alex Crook and I'm not sure we'd give Crook that level of info.

Anyway who knows.

No completely separate from us sacking him and paying up his remaining 3 years etc

[JustinSFC]

3 minutes ago, SKD said:

Yep completely different. That’ll be the compensation cost should a certain team come in for him, although I even doubt that £20m figure as it seems very, very high. 

I can believe that number for a release clause but never in a million years to sack him.

I cannot imagine, in any world, we'd leave ourselves that wide open.

[Turkish]

22 minutes ago, Give it to Ron said:

There is a 20m release clause....according to Crook and Talkshite today 

Great. Another one who cant read.

Edited 13 April, 2021 by Turkish

[John B]

1 hour ago, Give it to Ron said:

Great another one that can’t read

I can read I think your original post is barking 

[Give it to Ron]

6 minutes ago, John B said:

I can read I think your original post is barking 

Why come on explain? We have a failing manager we can’t replace what solution do you think will improve him tactically.

Its easy to rubbish others without offering something 

[Roo1976]

22 hours ago, DarrenLeTiss said:

Ralph the clock is ticking. This isn't or hasn't been good enough for months. When does our patience run out?

When the season ticket holders are allowed back in the ground and voice their disapproval ,then we will see how the dice roll in the board room.

[Doctoroncall]

2 hours ago, JustinSFC said:

How do you know that?

I'm not saying you're wrong but how do you know?

Like I said, based on what I read, which may or may not have been true, but I'll take a punt right now that whoever wrote it knows more about it than I do, that unless you're a top, top, top manager you won't get that.

And keep in mind, you're still talking millions at 1 year.

Depends if he wants to work again during those future years, that is generally why there is a compromise.

[Badger]

21 hours ago, LuckyNumber7 said:

He's got until the end of the season for me now. If we don't see a significant improvement then I think we have to make a change or I really fear for us next season.

As an aside, I don't get the love in with Thomas Frank. They are bottling promotion again, just like last season.

His name has been posted on here several times, especially by St Lard who is his leading campaigner it seems.

I can accept the interest in him as Brentford play an attractive attacking game by all accounts, and possibly he's got them again 'punching above their weight'. But no one has explained why he'd leave a fairly well run and seemingly ambitious club for us.

If we're looking at Brentford perhaps their head of recruitment should be considered rather than the manager.

16 hours ago, skintsaint said:

Basically for me the cup semi is his chance to redeem himself after a very poor league campaign, with yet another 9 nuffin defeat. Lose this weekend and limp over the line I feel the squad/manager needs freshening up. Someone like Marco Rose would do, same kinda principles, but a left field choice would be Marcelo Gallardo with maybe some inside knowledge of that region. 

Lined up by Dortmund for next season I think.

Would have liked us to consider another Austrian if needed, Adolf Hutter ('Adi' as he calls himself, can't think why), if only for the name. (Won't happen though as I read he's likely to go elsewhere in Germany.

[Streaky]

2 hours ago, Give it to Ron said:

talkSPORT’s man on the south coast added: “I think he is there for the long haul. He signed a new contract before the season started.

“The release clause in that contract, if a top club wanted to take him, is £20million. So that’s a significant amount of money to pay if someone wants to prise him away.

“I do expect him to be there for the foreseeable future, but he does need to make some adjustments.

 

it came from Crook so probably bull

He could just resign to take over somewhere else. No club is gonna pay 20m to take ralph of our hands, even if we were top of the league nobody is paying that.

[Streaky]

Let's go get Diego martinez, amazing job at granada, working on a shoestring budget

[Daft Kerplunk]

35 minutes ago, Streaky said:

Let's go get Diego martinez, amazing job at granada, working on a shoestring budget

Shades of Pellegrino?

[Streaky]

16 minutes ago, Daft Kerplunk said:

Shades of Pellegrino?

No I don't think so. Hes done far more than pellegrino, more tactically astute, often switching formation depending on opposition and has transformed some of the younger players into real stars. A real disciplinarian. Just what this team needs.

[JustinSFC]

2 hours ago, Roo1976 said:

When the season ticket holders are allowed back in the ground and voice their disapproval ,then we will see how the dice roll in the board room.

Won't happen.

I sat through the entire Pellegrino reign and the worst it got was people leaving on around 85 minutes and one single chorus of boo's and then everyone just filtered out of the stadium in silence.

And Ralph has a hell of lot more credit in the bank than Pellegrino ever had, even now. It's running out, but he's still got more credit than that clown had.

[Ex Lion Tamer]

Let's summarise:

16 wins in 8 draws in 34 games in 2020 = really excellent

11 defeats in last 14 games = really bad but there's always the hope that Ralph can turn it around

Two 9-0s = embarrassing but it's more important to look at the longer term trend rather than individual results.

There's definitely cause for concern but I still think it would be premature to lose Ralph now

Edited 13 April, 2021 by Ex Lion Tamer

[TWar]

28 minutes ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

Let's summarise:

16 wins in 8 draws in 34 games in 2020 = really excellent

11 defeats in last 14 games = really bad but there's always the hope that Ralph can turn it around

Two 9-0s = embarrassing but it's more important to look at the longer term trend rather than individual results.

There's definitely cause for concern but I still think it would be premature to lose Ralph now

Nail on the head really. Far too sensible for this forum to be honest who will only judge a manager by their most recent 20 or so games at most. No ability to step back and see the bigger picture. Fortunately I have no worries, there is no way our board is that reactionary.

[SKD]

39 minutes ago, TWar said:

Nail on the head really. Far too sensible for this forum to be honest who will only judge a manager by their most recent 20 or so games at most. No ability to step back and see the bigger picture. Fortunately I have no worries, there is no way our board is that reactionary.

But that is exactly how football works. A good run of form saw him linked with top jobs such as United and Chelsea and a poor run linked with getting the boot. In football, you’re only as good as your last game. He’s a lucky man to survive 1, let alone 2, 9-0 defeats (he handed in his resignation after the first one, that just shows how bad the result in isolation is). 

There are some clear fundamental flaws with Ralph and I don’t see any sign that they will change. Unless we have a re jig of the backroom Staff with some fresh ideas. His inability to set up a defence is a huge concern. 

Ralph has been given enough credit points now. They’re slowly running out if they haven’t already. 

Also, don’t bang on like you’re some long term visionary. You write off Howe for 1 poor season seemingly forgetting the other 10 great ones he had at Bournemouth. The reality is, you like Ralph, he’s a trendy choice and that’s made your mind up he’s the man for us despite some fundamental underlying issues. 

[Pedantic Pete]

Thomas Frank is interesting comparison when talking about replacements...

Brentford P 137 W 64 D 33 L 40 W% 46.7%

Ralph

Saints P 105 W 40 D 22 L 43 W% 38.1%

However arguably Ralph is in a more difficult league and at Leipzig he had a win% of 48% so stats wise is it much different? 

(not my figures they are from Wiki...so if they are wrong I apologise)

[aintforever]

See how we finish the season, at the moment we are 10 points clear of the bottom three in lower mid table which is probably about right for the squad we have. 

[Dark Munster]

1 hour ago, Pedantic Pete said:

Thomas Frank is interesting comparison when talking about replacements...

Brentford P 137 W 64 D 33 L 40 W% 46.7%

Ralph

Saints P 105 W 40 D 22 L 43 W% 38.1%

However arguably Ralph is in a more difficult league and at Leipzig he had a win% of 48% so stats wise is it much different? 

(not my figures they are from Wiki...so if they are wrong I apologise)

I don't think that's arguable.

[Lord Duckhunter]

9 hours ago, TWar said:

Nail on the head really. Far too sensible for this forum to be honest who will only judge a manager by their most recent 20 or so games at most. No ability to step back and see the bigger picture. Fortunately I have no worries, there is no way our board is that reactionary.

He’s not judged on 20 games by me. I judge him on last season (14th), and the whole of this season. Included in this season will be a woefully naive hammering by Spurs before our 23 hours at the top of the league (stop the count). Unlike the cult I will not cherry pick calendar years or other such pony to judge him. Just seasons, when we’ve played everyone twice and when we see where we are in the proper league. Not a made up pony league of 2020 calendar year, or best team to be thrashed by Manchester City league, or the VAR injustice/injury league. I suggest the cult do likewise. 

[supersonic]

15 hours ago, JustinSFC said:

Keep in mind I have no idea what Ralph's contract is, but I did read somewhere, it might have been The Athletic about what happens when a manager get's sacked and unless you're an elite manager in world football at a massive club, the general payoff is about 1 years contract.

Whether that's true or not, who knows, I don't have that kind of knowledge.

People will say "but Hughes got this, Hughes got that" that might be true aswell but as a football fan, I don't particularly care other than the performance of the manager and the results we get, I find it weird that fans care more about the bank balance than winning fucking games of football.

Contrarily, I will also say, this has been a season that's been hugely impacted by events out of Ralph's control, so there is that too.

That being said, on balance we've been very good and we've been absolutely dogshit too. 11 losses in 14. Flipping hell man.

Most managers who get the sack continue to get their weekly wage for a set period of time (usually forgoing last year if contract if multiple years left), or otherwise until that manager finds themselves another job.

Its usually part of the reason why ma agers don't jump back into football right away.

So, in theory, we wouldn't have to pay Ralph's entire contract up, we'd probably agree to pay him his wage for next 2 year's and hope he gets employed by someone else. 

The problem is, he is likely to be on a good wage, and so is a manager who can help us out. 

I remember at one point a few seasons ago Reading had 4 managers on the payroll....

[TWar]

1 hour ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

He’s not judged on 20 games by me. I judge him on last season (14th), and the whole of this season. Included in this season will be a woefully naive hammering by Spurs before our 23 hours at the top of the league (stop the count). Unlike the cult I will not cherry pick calendar years or other such pony to judge him. Just seasons, when we’ve played everyone twice and when we see where we are in the proper league. Not a made up pony league of 2020 calendar year, or best team to be thrashed by Manchester City league, or the VAR injustice/injury league. I suggest the cult do likewise. 

What do you mean last season (14th)? You know we finished 11th last season?

[John B]

15 hours ago, Give it to Ron said:

Why come on explain? We have a failing manager we can’t replace what solution do you think will improve him tactically.

Its easy to rubbish others without offering something 

Here is my little offering

I do not know precisely what the strategy of SFC really is and what its objectives really  are

 

Clearly the main objective seems to be to run the club profitably using only revenue the club earns

The second objective is probably to remain in the PL and to hope for success in Cup Competitions

If that is the case Ralph is not failing so there is no need to replace him as he is performing reasonably well to meet these objectives Saints are now an established PL club

And not a YoY o club like WBA Fulham Norwich Reading Sheff Utd etc  and I doubt with Ralph in charge we will get relegated next season with the Clubs coming up from the Championship

I am 75 years of age and have supporting the club since I was a teenager and Ted Bates was manager and since 1966 when Ted Terry Paine and Martin Chivers took us to Div 1 have fully supported the second objective

Although it may have failed a couple of times it has kept me interested for 55  years including watching teams like Hartlepool Dagenham Redbridge Yeovil etc in League 1 and trying to keep up to date with results in 1978 when we gained promotion  in 1978 whilst travelling in SE Asia and Australia without the Internet

I fully realise that the Les Reed era tried to suggest that the club would be challenging for European Football but that was completely unrealistic without massive investment which some of the other clubs seem to be able to afford

So I think your idea of sacking people who are probably doing a good job to help Ralph  in doing what the club wants is not the way forward

Of course I would like the club to challenging for League honours but in the 50 or so years Saints have been in the Top Division I would have thought our current league position would be similar to the average over that time and that will hardly change without out spending loads of dosh

[TWar]

10 hours ago, SKD said:

But that is exactly how football works. A good run of form saw him linked with top jobs such as United and Chelsea and a poor run linked with getting the boot. In football, you’re only as good as your last game. He’s a lucky man to survive 1, let alone 2, 9-0 defeats (he handed in his resignation after the first one, that just shows how bad the result in isolation is). 

There are some clear fundamental flaws with Ralph and I don’t see any sign that they will change. Unless we have a re jig of the backroom Staff with some fresh ideas. His inability to set up a defence is a huge concern. 

Ralph has been given enough credit points now. They’re slowly running out if they haven’t already. 

Also, don’t bang on like you’re some long term visionary. You write off Howe for 1 poor season seemingly forgetting the other 10 great ones he had at Bournemouth. The reality is, you like Ralph, he’s a trendy choice and that’s made your mind up he’s the man for us despite some fundamental underlying issues. 

But you are not only as good as your last game, its a silly saying which no one actually believes. Tuchel didn't become the worst manager in the league when they went 5-2 against Brom, or klopp when they lost 7-2 vs villa. People who say "you are only as good as your last game" have no idea of the concept of statistical varience. The real saying should be "you are only as good as the average of the largest possible dataset of your games controlling for extenuating factors, such as a change in team and/or league" but that's not as catchy. 

As for Howe, he did well in the lower leagues as have many lower league managers before him, made some shit signings with the piles of money he was given (£25m on Lerma, 20m on Ibe, 18m on Solanke, billing (£15m)), struggled over and over and got relegated. Howe had a net spend in the prem of 135m over his 4 years in the prem including spending £80m in one summer alone with just an £18m in sales. He had a win % in the prem 29.83%. Over the same window our net spend is in the positives and Ralph has comfortably secured safety two seasons on the bounce and has a win % of 34. I know which I prefer. 

Edited 14 April, 2021 by TWar

[badgerx16]

How would this thread be going if the league results were the same but Arsenal had fielded their first team in the FA Cup and beaten us ?

[Greenridge]

2 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

He’s not judged on 20 games by me. I judge him on last season (14th), and the whole of this season. Included in this season will be a woefully naive hammering by Spurs before our 23 hours at the top of the league (stop the count). Unlike the cult I will not cherry pick calendar years or other such pony to judge him. Just seasons, when we’ve played everyone twice and when we see where we are in the proper league. Not a made up pony league of 2020 calendar year, or best team to be thrashed by Manchester City league, or the VAR injustice/injury league. I suggest the cult do likewise. 

You know we actually finished 11th right? We know you despise every manager except your beloved Claude but if you are going to make a case then at least be close to the facts. 

[TWar]

36 minutes ago, John B said:

Here is my little offering

I do not know precisely what the strategy of SFC really is and what its objectives really  are

 

Clearly the main objective seems to be to run the club profitably using only revenue the club earns

The second objective is probably to remain in the PL and to hope for success in Cup Competitions

If that is the case Ralph is not failing so there is no need to replace him as he is performing reasonably well to meet these objectives Saints are now an established PL club

And not a YoY o club like WBA Fulham Norwich Reading Sheff Utd etc  and I doubt with Ralph in charge we will get relegated next season with the Clubs coming up from the Championship

I am 75 years of age and have supporting the club since I was a teenager and Ted Bates was manager and since 1966 when Ted Terry Paine and Martin Chivers took us to Div 1 have fully supported the second objective

Although it may have failed a couple of times it has kept me interested for 55  years including watching teams like Hartlepool Dagenham Redbridge Yeovil etc in League 1 and trying to keep up to date with results in 1978 when we gained promotion  in 1978 whilst travelling in SE Asia and Australia without the Internet

I fully realise that the Les Reed era tried to suggest that the club would be challenging for European Football but that was completely unrealistic without massive investment which some of the other clubs seem to be able to afford

So I think your idea of sacking people who are probably doing a good job to help Ralph  in doing what the club wants is not the way forward

Of course I would like the club to challenging for League honours but in the 50 or so years Saints have been in the Top Division I would have thought our current league position would be similar to the average over that time and that will hardly change without out spending loads of dosh

Great perspective. I think people who consider Ralph failing need a sense of perspective and a more realistic set of goals. With our squad quality and spending power safety will always be the goal. 34% winrate is safety every season, as long as Ralphs average stays in and around that he's killing it. People have been spoilt by the now managers of PSG and Barca in the same way everyone compares all our CBs to VvD and all our attacking mids to Mane, we ain't a champions league side guys, get some perspective!

[Ex Lion Tamer]

32 minutes ago, TWar said:

But you are not only as good as your last game, its a silly saying which no one actually believes. Tuchel didn't become the worst manager in the league when they went 5-2 against Brom, or klopp when they lost 7-2 vs villa. People who say "you are only as good as your last game" have no idea of the concept of statistical varience. The real saying should be "you are only as good as the average of the largest possible dataset of your games controlling for extenuating factors, such as a change in team and/or league" but that's not as catchy. 

As for Howe, he did well in the lower leagues as have many lower league managers before him, made some shit signings with the piles of money he was given (£25m on Lerma, 20m on Ibe, 18m on Solanke, billing (£15m)), struggled over and over and got relegated. Howe had a net spend in the prem of 135m over his 4 years in the prem including spending £80m in one summer alone with just an £18m in sales. He had a win % in the prem 29.83%. Over the same window our net spend is in the positives and Ralph has comfortably secured safety two seasons on the bounce and has a win % of 34. I know which I prefer. 

Indeed there are plenty of managers who have been sacked after winning their last game and even after winning trophies. Because (good) club boards take a long term view

[Greenridge]

3 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

How would this thread be going if the league results were the same but Arsenal had fielded their first team in the FA Cup and beaten us ?

And there are a thousand other pointless variables you could offer into the mix. 

[TWar]

Just now, Ex Lion Tamer said:

Indeed there are plenty of managers who have been sacked after winning their last game and even after winning trophies. Because (good) club boards take a long term view

Exactly, clubs care about long term changes, long term vision, developing players over time, and building an identity. Ralph has done all those things and basically saved the career of JWP, Vestergaard, Ings, Armstrong and many others. Sacking him off after a few bad months, most of which we were blighted by injury, is a fan move, not a club move.

[TWar]

1 minute ago, Greenridge said:

And there are a thousand other pointless variables you could offer into the mix. 

Yeah like similarly would we be having this conversation if any of Vestergaard, KWP or Ings had remained fit and we had won an extra 2-3 games in the league, or if we hadn't had a couple of weeks of shitty refereeing in the league and had picked up a couple more wins, or if Jankewitz would have kept his head and we struggled with 11 against united to a 3-0 loss rather than 9-0. All big what ifs, that's why we have to assess over a longer period than a couple of months as luck plays far too big a role and creates a tonne of varience. 

[Charlie Wayman]

17 hours ago, SKD said:

£20m!? Jesus, we’re in balls deep with Ralph then aren’t we. Who in the hell agreed to that. 

Les Reed of course, who else?

[John B]

8 minutes ago, Greenridge said:

You know we actually finished 11th right? We know you despise every manager except your beloved Claude but if you are going to make a case then at least be close to the facts. 

Sacking Puel was completely stupid 

Sacking Hasenhüttl at the moment would also be stupid as he has better stats than Puel but if we get relegated that is a different situation

Sacking Pellegrino was the right thing to do as was sacking Hughes who did the job he was brought in for

In the first thirty years I followed the Saints no manager was sacked how the PL has changed that

[Charlie Wayman]

22 minutes ago, TWar said:

Great perspective. I think people who consider Ralph failing need a sense of perspective and a more realistic set of goals. With our squad quality and spending power safety will always be the goal. 34% winrate is safety every season, as long as Ralphs average stays in and around that he's killing it. People have been spoilt by the now managers of PSG and Barca in the same way everyone compares all our CBs to VvD and all our attacking mids to Mane, we ain't a champions league side guys, get some perspective!

What a thoroughly depressing post, why do you bother to support such a hopelessly lost cause of a club? 

[SKD]

1 hour ago, TWar said:

But you are not only as good as your last game, its a silly saying which no one actually believes. Tuchel didn't become the worst manager in the league when they went 5-2 against Brom, or klopp when they lost 7-2 vs villa. People who say "you are only as good as your last game" have no idea of the concept of statistical varience. The real saying should be "you are only as good as the average of the largest possible dataset of your games controlling for extenuating factors, such as a change in team and/or league" but that's not as catchy. 

As for Howe, he did well in the lower leagues as have many lower league managers before him, made some shit signings with the piles of money he was given (£25m on Lerma, 20m on Ibe, 18m on Solanke, billing (£15m)), struggled over and over and got relegated. Howe had a net spend in the prem of 135m over his 4 years in the prem including spending £80m in one summer alone with just an £18m in sales. He had a win % in the prem 29.83%. Over the same window our net spend is in the positives and Ralph has comfortably secured safety two seasons on the bounce and has a win % of 34. I know which I prefer. 

It’s clearly viewed more than the ‘last game’, but 15 games is a significant chunk of a season in which we have been absolutely diabolical including a record equalling defeat within that time and some other very heavy and poor defeats.

Bad results are 1 thing and ultimately football is a results driven game, however, performances have been very, very concerning. Failing to beat a 9 men Newcastle and getting ripped apart from West Brom are just 2 of those which are most worrying. 

What I can’t tell is at what point you’d consider Ralph to be under pressure. 15 games, nearly half a season, we’ve shown relegation form. At what point does enough become enough? Another 10? Another 20? 

If we fail to win another game for the rest of the season (seriously not a inconceivable thought given how we’ve played) would you consider that to be enough of a ‘dataset’?  

We have a full squad available, absolutely no excuses now. 

For as long as we’re in the FA cup, I think Ralph should be kept in the job. I have absolutely no faith that we’ll win Sunday though and I think for me, I’ll be 100% Ralph out following that. 

[TWar]

3 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

What a thoroughly depressing post, why do you bother to support such a hopelessly lost cause of a club? 

You asking why I support saints regardless of them not being champions league level in funding or quality? Well I was born near Southampton and have supported them for decades, whilst in league 1 and now whilst in the premier league, I'm not going to suddenly stop liking them when I notice we aren't in the champions league when we quite literally have never been that level. I enjoy watching my local team do well, be that gaining promotion from league one or maintaining PL status and going on cup runs. I am not going to hop off to become a glory supporter, especially not now when we are exponentially better off than when I supported us 10 years ago.

Why do you support saints? Are you hoping for CL every season, with our players becoming Balon d'or contenders like Mane, VvD, and Tadic every season, and getting disappointed when it doesn't happen? For me that's a much more depressing outlook than admitting we are a small to medium sized team in the grand old scheme of things, doing well to remain out of a relegation battle given our size, doing great to reach the final four in the cup, and celebrating those things?

Edited 14 April, 2021 by TWar

[TWar]

5 minutes ago, SKD said:

 If we fail to win another game for the rest of the season (seriously not a inconceivable thought given how we’ve played) would you consider that to be enough of a ‘dataset’?  

Biggest dataset possible. If his overall % drops below 30 then maybe we talk, but the "what if he just starts losing for the next 20 games" thing is a silly question. The statistics suggest he won't and if he does then something has clearly gone wrong and we analyse that. Right now there is not evidence he has dropped in quality at all from the data we have, it is well within the range of statistical variance, especially when you consider that injuries will factor in to that. Since we have had a full strength team (pretty much) we have beated Sheff, Burnley, and Bournemouth and lost to West Brom, Brighton, and city. 50% win rate is pretty standard for us, 40% league win rate. Pretty normal. We are not doing well against weaker teams, but arguably they are teams with more to play for so they tend to be more motivated around this time than us, happens every year. It only looks bad when you factor in the games before. The whole "we have a full squad now and are still doing bad" thing doesn't really hold up.

[SKD]

2 minutes ago, TWar said:

Biggest dataset possible. If his overall % drops below 30 then maybe we talk, but the "what if he just starts losing for the next 20 games" thing is a silly question. The statistics suggest he won't and if he does then something has clearly gone wrong and we analyse that. Right now there is not evidence he has dropped in quality at all from the data we have, it is well within the range of statistical variance, especially when you consider that injuries will factor in to that. Since we have had a full strength team (pretty much) we have beated Sheff, Burnley, and Bournemouth and lost to West Brom, Brighton, and city. 50% win rate is pretty standard for us, 40% league win rate. Pretty normal. We are not doing well against weaker teams, but arguably they are teams with more to play for so they tend to be more motivated around this time than us, happens every year. It only looks bad when you factor in the games before. The whole "we have a full squad now and are still doing bad" thing doesn't really hold up.

2 league wins in 15 (1 of those wins being Sheff Utd who get beat by everyone and the other Ings dragged us out the mud). The statistics would suggest that if we carry on this form, we’ll be relegated by Christmas. 

Every club has had injuries, I’m not buying that as an excuse for only winning 2 games, one of which was against 9 men, in the last 15. 

You can waffle on as much as you’d like about ‘statistics’ ‘datasets’ etc. to back up your inability to see his underlying flaws, but to anyone watching games it’s clear we are diabolical and there’s absolutely nothing to suggest we’ll turn that around. In fact, I actually think we’re getting worse. 

Has it crossed your mind that perhaps Ralph’s plan has been figured out and he is tactically not astute enough and / or too stubborn to counter or change things? 

We’re effectively just chucking out the same 12/13 blokes without actually trying to change style or formation. We’re getting overran in the middle, struggling to break teams down and all over the place at the back. It’s No wonder we’re losing games. 

From what I’ve seen the second half this season, I would be absolutely amazed if Ralph lasts until this time next season unless something pretty fundamental changes (I.e a new owner with a shit load of money in the summer, a new coach helping change the style). 

[Ex Lion Tamer]

The point is that you don't get rid of someone who is capable of the good results that Ralph has had unless you are absolutely sure that the situation is now terminal. If this form continues into next season then yes, he'll absolutely have to go

[Forester]

1 minute ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

The point is that you don't get rid of someone who is capable of the good results that Ralph has had unless you are absolutely sure that the situation is now terminal. If this form continues into next season then yes, he'll absolutely have to go

Spot on.  During the WHOLE of 2020 (not just a 10 or 15 game segment) he accumulated over 60 points from a 38 game period so it is not a case of proving his capability.  It’s about supporting him to get back to somewhere near those levels.

[Whitey Grandad]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

How would this thread be going if the league results were the same but Arsenal had fielded their first team in the FA Cup and beaten us ?

Whatifery 

Then we’d have beaten WBA because the players would have been trying harder.

Possibly

[Whitey Grandad]

12 minutes ago, SKD said:

2 league wins in 15 (1 of those wins being Sheff Utd who get beat by everyone and the other Ings dragged us out the mud). The statistics would suggest that if we carry on this form, we’ll be relegated by Christmas. 

Every club has had injuries, I’m not buying that as an excuse for only winning 2 games, one of which was against 9 men, in the last 15. 

You can waffle on as much as you’d like about ‘statistics’ ‘datasets’ etc. to back up your inability to see his underlying flaws, but to anyone watching games it’s clear we are diabolical and there’s absolutely nothing to suggest we’ll turn that around. In fact, I actually think we’re getting worse. 

Has it crossed your mind that perhaps Ralph’s plan has been figured out and he is tactically not astute enough and / or too stubborn to counter or change things? 

We’re effectively just chucking out the same 12/13 blokes without actually trying to change style or formation. We’re getting overran in the middle, struggling to break teams down and all over the place at the back. It’s No wonder we’re losing games. 

From what I’ve seen the second half this season, I would be absolutely amazed if Ralph lasts until this time next season unless something pretty fundamental changes (I.e a new owner with a shit load of money in the summer, a new coach helping change the style). 

So presumably that’s 3 league wins in 16? Why did you stop at 15? Why not go back to the first game of the season?

If you want to be selective and only include the losses then he’s had a terrible season. If you only include the wins he’s done a lot better.

Judge him ay the end of the complete season.

[MarkSFC]

I think Ralph is a good manager/coach. I think he some flaws. Are his strengths beneficial to the long term success of the first team? Maybe, maybe not. Are his flaws detrimental to the long term success of our first team? Maybe, maybe not. And here in lies the problem I suspect the board are pondering. At his best, we are superb. At our worse we are abysmal. 

I think there are many mitigating factors for the downside, such as Covid and the training environment, a squad full of players on loan, and the consequences of them on the buget, and an injury problem I am struggling to recall ever being so bd in such a short period of time. 

I think he has a bit of the Wenger about him, in his stubbornness to play his way ALL THE TIME!! His substitutions (or lack of them) are frustrating, the latest example being on Monday when he just waited and waited and waited and then it was pointless.

The question is, if he was to be replaced, who would come in. I have no idea who, but I am not a fan of Howe for example, and would want someone who is up and coming, rather than looking for a job for the sake of a job. 

Sometimes in leadership you need to hold your nerve. Tere is the famous example of Alex Fergusson being on the brink at Manure in his early days, and they held their nerve and reaped the benefit. This could be another example of that, although on a lesser scale it is all relevant, and its a bit different as the board have already held their nerve at least once. Although the financial position may well have prevented it in reality. 

Overall, and I'm not totally convinced even still,  Id give Ralph the summer and the first 12-15 games to see. He still does not have "his team" due to the finances. This summer may allow that to be closer, especially if a takeover does occur and there is some more cash to invest in the team. 🤞

 

[Lord Duckhunter]

5 hours ago, TWar said:

 Ralph has done all those things and basically saved the career of JWP, Vestergaard, Ings, Armstrong and many others. 

The Ralph cult are getting more and more ridiculous by the day. Saved their careers, laughable..

[TWar]

4 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

The Ralph cult are getting more and more ridiculous by the day. Saved their careers, laughable..

All were bench options when he arrived, Vestergaard was being talked about being sold for less than he came for, JWP was struggling as an attacking mid and almost sold to watford, Ings had not scored more than 5 goals in a season for five years, and Armstrong was basically anonymous. Now Vestergaard is being linked with Spurs, JWP is our captain and has been in the last few England squads, Ings scored the 5th most non-pen goals in europe last season, got an england call up, and is being linked to City, and Armstrong is our best attacking midfielder by a good margin. I don't know how much more he could have done to turn these players careers around. If when he turned up I told you Vest would be linked to spurs, Ings to City, and JWP be an england regular I would have been considered crazy, but here it is.

[SKD]

8 minutes ago, TWar said:

All were bench options when he arrived, Vestergaard was being talked about being sold for less than he came for, JWP was struggling as an attacking mid and almost sold to watford, Ings had not scored more than 5 goals in a season for five years, and Armstrong was basically anonymous. Now Vestergaard is being linked with Spurs, JWP is our captain and has been in the last few England squads, Ings scored the 5th most non-pen goals in europe last season, got an england call up, and is being linked to City, and Armstrong is our best attacking midfielder by a good margin. I don't know how much more he could have done to turn these players careers around. If when he turned up I told you Vest would be linked to spurs, Ings to City, and JWP be an england regular I would have been considered crazy, but here it is.

The only one he’s really improved is JWP.

Vestergaard - has been great this season, but last season, more of what we’d seen before in a saints shirt, however he played well in Germany, so bit of a stretch giving Ralph the credit for that one. 

Ings - I mean he played for Liverpool and was liked by Klopp, but naturally couldn’t play ahead of their front 3. Nothing’s changed on this front other than a good 6-12 months with an injury. Ings good run of form and goals coincided with our good run of form and goals. 

Armstrong - always been a good player for us. Struggled a bit for fitness, but certainly always been one of our best even under Hughes. He’s our new Steven Davis just a solid 7-8/10 every week. 

Vestergaard was linked to Leicester last season, Spurs are skint and need cheap players. 
Ings, would just sit on the bench at City and again is a cheap option. 
 

So they’re not all that surprising to be honest.