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Highly informative (if somewhat morbid) link:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Of particular interest is that of the 240cases that have run their course in Italy to date, 80 have died, 160 survived.

Similar ratio's exist in France with 4 dead and 12 having survived so far.

 

Whilst that's a worst case based probably on those with other health complications sadly unable to cope with the added immune stress, its still a rather alarming rate for developed countries.

 

Hopefully you missed a zero off the 240 Italian cases or that is extremely worrying.

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Hopefully you missed a zero off the 240 Italian cases or that is extremely worrying.

The poster above said the 1 in 3/Italian death stat related to case that'd run the course. I've no idea what that means but the Italian cases number over 2000 with 79 deaths so I read it as a 3% or so death rate, not 1 in 3.

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And the rest. Over 3,000 confirmed cases but there’s likely to be at least 10x undetected.

 

Extremely low death rate.

Surely the undetected cases are irrelevant? There's still a large amount of cases serious enough to be detected and the death percentage of those is still a worry.

 

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Surely the undetected cases are irrelevant? There's still a large amount of cases serious enough to be detected and the death percentage of those is still a worry.

 

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Why would they be irrelevant? An infection is an infection.

 

Obviously those cases that are serious enough to need medical attention are more likely to result in deaths. The same as with any virus that has the potential to kill.

.

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If ALL cases were known and recorded the death rate would be much closer to the true expected death rate of between 0.1 and 0.5%

 

No country has the capacity to test anywhere close to the level needed for that, hence why the numbers are heavily skewed at the moment with only the very sick getting tested.

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Hopefully you missed a zero off the 240 Italian cases or that is extremely worrying.

 

I didn't sadly. Upto 107 now. Hopefully there are a vast swathe of cases that went diagnosed throughout Christmas / January and the figures being reported are much worse than the actual statistics.

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The poster above said the 1 in 3/Italian death stat related to case that'd run the course. I've no idea what that means but the Italian cases number over 2000 with 79 deaths so I read it as a 3% or so death rate, not 1 in 3.

 

I don't overly disagree. However the only real analysis anyone can do at this stage is look at cases that have run their course - either terminal or recovery. And then gauge the survival rate from that. If its accurate then the rate will scale with time until sufficient cases have run their course that the change in survival rate flatlines.

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I don't overly disagree. However the only real analysis anyone can do at this stage is look at cases that have run their course - either terminal or recovery. And then gauge the survival rate from that. If its accurate then the rate will scale with time until sufficient cases have run their course that the change in survival rate flatlines.

Behave :mcinnes:

 

The diamond princess is the only real analysis you can do. Less than a quarter of the boat caught it, over half of them didn’t even know they had it. Only 6 have died and they were all over 70.

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Behave :mcinnes:

 

The diamond princess is the only real analysis you can do. Less than a quarter of the boat caught it, over half of them didn’t even know they had it. Only 6 have died and they were all over 70.

 

Death rate in Hubei Provence is sitting at 7% from 43k cases (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6). And China has been widely praised for their treatment and response to the virus, and highlighted as providing better targeted medical care than most western countries.

 

You can't judge this virus on anything other than cases that have run their course. With time, a sufficient sample size will develop to provide an accurate figure. At the moment there isn't a sufficient sample size in western countries. And no, you cannot take the diamond princess as a guide because that is a very specific scenario. The numbers are the numbers ultimately. Wait and see what happens with them but don't moan at me for presenting them in their simplest form :rolleyes:

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Behave :mcinnes:

 

The diamond princess is the only real analysis you can do. Less than a quarter of the boat caught it, over half of them didn’t even know they had it. Only 6 have died and they were all over 70.

In our experience of cruising in a four week cruise you would expect to lose a few passengers anyway.

 

There used to be a rumour that if they came round offering free ice cream it was because they needed the freezer space because the morgue was full.

 

Then on one cruise they came round offering free ice cream...

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Death rate in Hubei Provence is sitting at 7% from 43k cases (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6). And China has been widely praised for their treatment and response to the virus, and highlighted as providing better targeted medical care than most western countries.

 

You can't judge this virus on anything other than cases that have run their course. With time, a sufficient sample size will develop to provide an accurate figure. At the moment there isn't a sufficient sample size in western countries. And no, you cannot take the diamond princess as a guide because that is a very specific scenario. The numbers are the numbers ultimately. Wait and see what happens with them but don't moan at me for presenting them in their simplest form :rolleyes:

A very specific scenario in which every person on board was exposed to the virus and repeatedly tested.

 

Your logic only works if 100% of cases are known and recorded, that is clearly not happening, therefore the numbers are flawed. You can’t use all cases that have run their course when you don’t know of all cases, as I already pointed out over 50% of cases on board the diamond princess they did not know they even had it as they showed no symptoms.

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Why would they be irrelevant? An infection is an infection.

 

Obviously those cases that are serious enough to need medical attention are more likely to result in deaths. The same as with any virus that has the potential to kill.

.

My point is that around January 22nd there were 580 serious, reported cases and now there is over 90,000, you're looking at roughly a 15000% increase in around 40 days. If that rate drops even as much as down to 4000% you're still talking about millions of serious, reported cases in another 40 days - regardless of how many cases are unreported. And the truth is that as this is brand new and people continue to not take it seriously, the rate of spread is more likely to increase than decrease for the foreseeable.

Forget the media, look at what the actual health organisations are saying. They're talking about it peaking in January of 2021. That means we're nowhere near the peak right now.

 

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My point is that around January 22nd there were 580 serious, reported cases and now there is over 90,000, you're looking at roughly a 15000% increase in around 40 days. If that rate drops even as much as down to 4000% you're still talking about millions of serious, reported cases in another 40 days - regardless of how many cases are unreported. And the truth is that as this is brand new and people continue to not take it seriously, the rate of spread is more likely to increase than decrease for the foreseeable.

Forget the media, look at what the actual health organisations are saying. They're talking about it peaking in January of 2021. That means we're nowhere near the peak right now.

 

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It's not as simple as that. There appear to be at least two strains. The first appeared to be harder to catch but much more serious - but the number of new infections has declined sharply since January. The second appears to be more infectious but milder.

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It's not as simple as that. There appear to be at least two strains. The first appeared to be harder to catch but much more serious - but the number of new infections has declined sharply since January. The second appears to be more infectious but milder.

 

There are two known strains, the rest of what you say is unproven and just speculation.

 

 

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

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It's not as simple as that. There appear to be at least two strains. The first appeared to be harder to catch but much more serious - but the number of new infections has declined sharply since January. The second appears to be more infectious but milder.
That's contrary to what I read earlier today that the more serious one is also more aggressive in terms of infecting people.

 

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That's contrary to what I read earlier today that the more serious one is also more aggressive in terms of infecting people.

 

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

can I ask a random question....I notice from your signature you are you a Pixel 3...

what are the Pixel phones like...? My contract is up in a few months (iphone xr) and fancy a change.

I what ever phone I get, I will trade my current device in, buy one outright and chop to Smarty/Voxi for a sim only thing

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can I ask a random question....I notice from your signature you are you a Pixel 3...

what are the Pixel phones like...? My contract is up in a few months (iphone xr) and fancy a change.

I what ever phone I get, I will trade my current device in, buy one outright and chop to Smarty/Voxi for a sim only thing

Can't give much of an in depth analysis as I don't pay too much attention to the finer details of phones, but it's been brilliant for me, never had any complaints. Only thing I have been told about by someone clued up is that apparently support for pixel phones ends with each new one that comes out, which I guess means when the 4 comes out sometime soon I'll stop getting updates, but I don't know.

Sorry I can't be much help. Although I will say every phone I've had I've had at least one issue with, except for this one. If I was pushed to find a complaint it would be that the screen isn't very bright so if it's a sunny day you have to have it all the way up and that probably isn't great for the battery, but that would surely be the same for every phone if it's in sunlight.

 

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Can't give much of an in depth analysis as I don't pay too much attention to the finer details of phones, but it's been brilliant for me, never had any complaints. Only thing I have been told about by someone clued up is that apparently support for pixel phones ends with each new one that comes out, which I guess means when the 4 comes out sometime soon I'll stop getting updates, but I don't know.

Sorry I can't be much help. Although I will say every phone I've had I've had at least one issue with, except for this one. If I was pushed to find a complaint it would be that the screen isn't very bright so if it's a sunny day you have to have it all the way up and that probably isn't great for the battery, but that would surely be the same for every phone if it's in sunlight.

 

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

cheers mate

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Just wondering about the possibility of the virus doing the rounds globally well before it was first recognised. As it has Flu like symptoms of which the vulnerable can also die from how do we know that it was detected straight away?, who knows, some of us could have had it already.

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Just wondering about the possibility of the virus doing the rounds globally well before it was first recognised. As it has Flu like symptoms of which the vulnerable can also die from how do we know that it was detected straight away?, who knows, some of us could have had it already.

 

Was talking about this the other day and think it’s quite possible. I was home and asleep by 5 yesterday feeling all weird and I have to say it crosses your mind.

 

The only good news is that it appears that kids aren’t particularly affected by it for whatever reason.

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Just wondering about the possibility of the virus doing the rounds globally well before it was first recognised. As it has Flu like symptoms of which the vulnerable can also die from how do we know that it was detected straight away?, who knows, some of us could have had it already.

 

No.

 

The virus that causes COVID-19 is similar to the one that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak: both are types of coronaviruses. Much is still unknown, but COVID-19 seems to spread faster than the 2003 SARS and also may cause less severe illness.

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No.

 

The virus that causes COVID-19 is similar to the one that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak: both are types of coronaviruses. Much is still unknown, but COVID-19 seems to spread faster than the 2003 SARS and also may cause less severe illness.

 

I think you are missing my point. How do we know that it hadn't already spread before it was discovered is what I am asking.

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The only good news is that it appears that kids aren’t particularly affected by it for whatever reason.

 

That’s good news but wouldn’t that make it spread much quicker, if kids carried the virus but didn’t show symptoms?

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Why stockpile anti-bacterial washes and soaps when the infection is caused by a virus ? Especially considering the FDA and CDC in the States reckon they are no more effective than normal soap.
To be fair with some antibac washes you don't need to be near a sink to use it.

 

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Made me laugh when footballers were told not to shake hands and yet there were rugby matches going on with more bodily contact involved than a Swedish massage center.

 

All handshakes at FT in Manchester

Edited by Batman
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Ok I fully admit to being not the brightest person but please would someone be able to explain why,

according to reports worldwide, people are going berserk about buying so many toilet rolls? This virus

doesn't give you diarrhoea.

.

 

lots of teenage lads “self isolating”.

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Ok I fully admit to being not the brightest person but please would someone be able to explain why,

according to reports worldwide, people are going berserk about buying so many toilet rolls? This virus

doesn't give you diarrhoea.

.

 

Actually had to get get some yesterday because we were down to our last 50 sheets or so and dangerously close to using the Romsey advertiser!

 

Got to Sainsbury’s to be presented with empty bog roll shelves and only the John Wayne paper left! I nearly broke out into a tut

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Actually had to get get some yesterday because we were down to our last 50 sheets or so and dangerously close to using the Romsey advertiser!

 

Got to Sainsbury’s to be presented with empty bog roll shelves and only the John Wayne paper left! I nearly broke out into a tut

 

None of the major brands at my local Tesco today. Only Tesco own brand with a choice of Shea Butter or Coconut Oil. Wtf is that about? Who wants greased toilet paper?

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None of the major brands at my local Tesco today. Only Tesco own brand with a choice of Shea Butter or Coconut Oil. Wtf is that about? Who wants greased toilet paper?

 

Perhaps people are misunderstanding the term ‘ Deep Cleaning’.

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Stock markets are going to take a proper pounding in the morning (as if the last few weeks haven’t been hairy enough). Hold tight.

 

Advise to not buy shares in any cruise companies.

Expect Netflix will see a boost in subscriptions though.

 

Although being very cynical but if it takes out older people with;underlying health issues then that would be where economies would want to lose people presumably?

Edited by whelk
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The scenario I worry about is that somewhere in the UK the virus will rip through an old people's home, killing seven or eight residents in a weekend. Then, a young Romanian nurse is identified as the source of the outbreak there. The victim's families plus an angry mob attack this nurse's home and the resulting blaze burns down a small block of flats, killing seventeen innocent people.

 

Basically, that's the plot of a six part ITV drama written by Jimmy McGovern to be broadcast in five years time. There'd be a comedy sub-plot about toilet rolls as well.

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