Sport Republic

[skintsaint]

7 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

The fact you're a bellend doesn't need substantiating with any more evidence than you've already provided. 

😅

[Ex Lion Tamer]

8 hours ago, cambsaint said:

I think that some of our younger supporters have delusions of grandeur and a hopelessly optimistic belief that some very hard headed billionaire is going to buy Saints as a novelty purchase for a bit of fun. Highly unlikely in the present Covid climate, even if it was before. There probably has never been a more inopportune time to sell a n average Premier League club. 

I don't know how Gao will get out of this except at a truly fire sale price. We just have to hope that the club remains solvent and tailor our ambitions to existing in the same cohort as the bottom half Prem clubs and the better Championship clubs 

Hopefully we still can find a bargain or two, and hopefully our academy will produce more good youngsters.

Realistically our best hope is to remain mid table and with the glaring exception of right back and very sparse cover. The players we have if well managed and coached are capable of that. We will of courese remain a selling club.

I can foresee a merry go round situation taking place with relegated  clubs often returning due to parachute money which gives them a huge advantage over the bulk of Championship clubs.

Hopefully post Covid we may become a more attractctive purchase. In the mean-time I shall console myself with the thought that when I started supporting Saints they were in the third division South

Good post. Obviously it would be great if someone came and pumped in money, but the reality is that most British football clubs have to be self- sustaining, and if we're one of them then so be it, we'll have to make the best of it and see if we can stay in this division with the resources we have

[Tom & Gerry]

18 minutes ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

Good post. Obviously it would be great if someone came and pumped in money, but the reality is that most British football clubs have to be self- sustaining, and if we're one of them then so be it, we'll have to make the best of it and see if we can stay in this division with the resources we have

We've stayed in it longer than any other club outside the top 6 with the exception of Everton which is an achievement. We are either doing something right or overdue to go down depending on your point of view.  

[Charlie Wayman]

4 minutes ago, Tom & Gerry said:

We've stayed in it longer than any other club outside the top 6 with the exception of Everton which is an achievement. We are either doing something right or overdue to go down depending on your point of view.  

We were in administration not too long ago so we have not always been so prudent. It is a recent phenomenon. In fact we were extremely lucky that Marcus Leibherr fancied us for some strange reason.

On the other hand a football club doesn't exist just to balance the books every year.

[Wurzel]

1 hour ago, Charlie Wayman said:

We were in administration not too long ago so we have not always been so prudent. It is a recent phenomenon. In fact we were extremely lucky that Marcus Leibherr fancied us for some strange reason.

On the other hand a football club doesn't exist just to balance the books every year.

But we have always been so prudent. Our policy was for a long time break even every two years, so the odd big name like Keegan had to pay for itself  the following yeare or player(s) sold to cover the cost then. That continued through Lowe era but one big gamble on a "spend" season that didn't get us back to the PL as expected suddenly put us in the shit.

Marcus allowed us a 5 year plan  after which he intended us to be self sufficient.  The current situation is really nothing new.

[sadoldgit]

On 03/06/2021 at 19:12, hypochondriac said:

The fact you're a bellend doesn't need substantiating with any more evidence than you've already provided. 

For someone like you to call another poster a “bellend” just proves 100% what I have thought of you for years. You have zero self awareness.

[hypochondriac]

2 hours ago, sadoldgit said:

For someone like you to call another poster a “bellend” just proves 100% what I have thought of you for years. You have zero self awareness.

Thanks for the contribution soggy. Judging by the reactions to my post it clearly wasn't a minority opinion. 

Edited 5 June, 2021 by hypochondriac

[Turkish]

11 hours ago, sadoldgit said:

For someone like you to call another poster a “bellend” just proves 100% what I have thought of you for years. You have zero self awareness.

You do know no one gives a fuck what you think of them don’t you? Kind of highlights your levels of self awareness. 

[tajjuk]

10 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

Thanks for the contribution soggy. Judging by the reactions to my post it clearly wasn't a minority opinion. 

Judging by the reactions neither is his. People go off at MLG because he challenges their brain fart opinions that they pass off as reality and they are too dumb to actually back up, so yeah that brain trust bundling onto support your comment is nothing really to proud off, it would be like getting applause from a load of monkeys. 

Nothing unreasonable IMO, when someone declares something is a fact, asking for something to back that supposed fact up, I think the current climate that is more important than ever. 

Edited 5 June, 2021 by tajjuk

[Matthew Le God]

4 minutes ago, tajjuk said:

Judging by the reactions neither is his. People go off at MLG because he challenges their brain fart opinions that they pass off as reality and they are too dumb to actually back up, so yeah that brain trust bundling onto support your comment is nothing really to proud off, it would be like getting applause from a load of monkeys. 

Nothing unreasonable IMO, when someone declares something is a fact, asking for something to back that supposed fact up, I think the current climate that is more important than ever. 

[Ex Lion Tamer]

2 hours ago, tajjuk said:

Judging by the reactions neither is his. People go off at MLG because he challenges their brain fart opinions that they pass off as reality and they are too dumb to actually back up, so yeah that brain trust bundling onto support your comment is nothing really to proud off, it would be like getting applause from a load of monkeys. 

Nothing unreasonable IMO, when someone declares something is a fact, asking for something to back that supposed fact up, I think the current climate that is more important than ever. 

I often enjoy MLG bringing a dose of reality to the debate but he also words his questions in quite an aggressive way (through lack of social nous rather than malice I think), sometimes takes on people who aren't regular posters and don't deserve to be held to account in that way, and argues relentlessly when challenged rather than letting things go

[tajjuk]

20 hours ago, Ex Lion Tamer said:

I often enjoy MLG bringing a dose of reality to the debate but he also words his questions in quite an aggressive way (through lack of social nous rather than malice I think), sometimes takes on people who aren't regular posters and don't deserve to be held to account in that way, and argues relentlessly when challenged rather than letting things go

Possibly, I don't tend to analyse everyone's posts or really who said what, just what they say and treat it on merit, but certainly in this instance he asked IMO a very straightforward and sensible question.  

I mean someone literally said 'The fact he hasn't got any money...' and was asked 'How do you know that to be a fact?' 

Certainly doesn't to me seem to aggressive or unreasonable that he deserved to be called a 'bellend', and then said person who called him that, being triumphant about it just because a load of other bellends supported the comment.

I mean if people don't want their opinions challenged then I'd firstly wonder why the fuck they are posting on a discussion forum, but at the very least probably don't start a sentence with the words 'the fact...' if they can't actually back that up in any way. 

 

The whole Gao thing on this forum creates a lot of over the top opinions IMO, I mean the guy seems to be the devil incarnate just because he hasn't splurged money at the club and we are being run sustainably, us and 100s of other clubs across the world. I mean what exactly aside that apparent giant crime has he actually done wrong? He's put decent people in charge of running the club and is letting them get on with it and he wants to sell and understandably wants his money back. Are there better owners? Of course, but I'd argue just as many who are far worse, I by the looks of things one of them could of been the guy potentially taking over, so I never get the reactions, I am pretty much neutral to him as an owner.

We are a PL football club that is run sustainably, hardly the end of world.  

Edited 6 June, 2021 by tajjuk

[Delmary]

Minor update

https://play.acast.com/s/priceoffootball/parachutepaymentsinthespotlight-barcaandrealmadriddebts

11min 5sec

 

[MarkSFC]

7 minutes ago, Delmary said:

Minor update

https://play.acast.com/s/priceoffootball/parachutepaymentsinthespotlight-barcaandrealmadriddebts

11min 5sec

 

Hmmm....dont follow this podcast so who is the bloke who said "yes"? Why would he know anything?

Very easy to say there is still interested parties without really "knowing". 

[Saint_lambden]

20 minutes ago, MarkSFC said:

Hmmm....dont follow this podcast so who is the bloke who said "yes"? Why would he know anything?

Very easy to say there is still interested parties without really "knowing". 

Kieran Maguire. He's a big football finance guy so I guess not surprising that he has some knowledge of the situation. 

He's very much towing the line that the club were at the fans forum - something is going on but they don't want the bidders' name in the public domain. Hopefully that's a good sign that they're serious backers and not trying to negotiate via the media like DeGrosa was. 

[SuperSAINT]

1 hour ago, Delmary said:

Minor update

https://play.acast.com/s/priceoffootball/parachutepaymentsinthespotlight-barcaandrealmadriddebts

11min 5sec

 

Cheers for posting that.

[MarkSFC]

1 hour ago, Saint_lambden said:

Kieran Maguire. He's a big football finance guy so I guess not surprising that he has some knowledge of the situation. 

He's very much towing the line that the club were at the fans forum - something is going on but they don't want the bidders' name in the public domain. Hopefully that's a good sign that they're serious backers and not trying to negotiate via the media like DeGrosa was. 

Cheers. Fingers crossed then. Unlikely to gossip I guess. 

[Smirking_Saint]

Sounds promising

Thanks for posting

[trousers]

Anyone got this lass's phone number? I've got an idea for another "historically under funded and overlooked" project she could throw another £2bn at....

#buysouthamptonfootballclubFFS

[Antrimsaint]

Wouldn’t surprise me that some bidder is waiting for us to be relegated to pick up a very cheap bargain. Couple of years parachute payments to get us back up and its a fairly good educated bet.

Being cynical thats how the Leibers got a nice return.

[Convict Colony]

Or waiting for the accounts to close end of June ?

Maybe hear something July 1 ??? pure guessing but that might make sense 

[Wurzel]

23 minutes ago, Antrimsaint said:

Wouldn’t surprise me that some bidder is waiting for us to be relegated to pick up a very cheap bargain. Couple of years parachute payments to get us back up and its a fairly good educated bet.

Being cynical thats how the Leibers got a nice return.

Don't think there were any parachute payments left when ML bought us, although admittedly he spotted an opportunity to buy a club on the cheap and get a good quick return on his investment.

But why would anyone wait for us to be relegated (bearing in mind any parachute p[ayments would be factored into the price). Take a look at the Championship and League 1 tables.  You'll probably find around 15-20 similar sized clubs to us already down there if you want to replicate the "buy em cheap and get them promoted" business plan.

[Antrimsaint]

1 minute ago, Wurzel said:

Don't think there were any parachute payments left when ML bought us, although admittedly he spotted an opportunity to buy a club on the cheap and get a good quick return on his investment.

But why would anyone wait for us to be relegated (bearing in mind any parachute p[ayments would be factored into the price). Take a look at the Championship and League 1 tables.  You'll probably find around 15-20 similar sized clubs to us already down there if you want to replicate the "buy em cheap and get them promoted" business plan.

And theres the point. Anyone interested in us knows we are a surefire risk of relegation next season. Why would you stump up now. We are not a very good investment right now. 
 

If things go well on the pitch over the next few years and stable then I can see someone paying premier league money for us but if we are likely to be running the risk for a few years then there are far better bargains around.

our own wishful thinking wont make it happen. I personally think we are proper in it and will drop a league or two before we are rescued again.

[Suhari]

45 minutes ago, Convict Colony said:

Or waiting for the accounts to close end of June ?

Maybe hear something July 1 ??? pure guessing but that might make sense 

I just hope Fulham don't overtake us and send us down before then.

[sadoldgit]

There are plenty of clubs at risk of being relegated and I wouldn’t say it was a certainty for us. We have an excellent infrastructure, more tv money coming in and the basis of a good team. The problem is that there aren’t many people out there looking to buy football clubs.

[SuperSAINT]

8 minutes ago, Suhari said:

I just hope Fulham don't overtake us and send us down before then.

Are you currently optimistic about next season?

[Suhari]

2 minutes ago, SuperSAINT said:

Are you currently optimistic about next season?

Uncertain, tending to concerned would sum it up for me.

With an injection of ££ (and hence a couple of quality players) we should be fine, possibly pretty good. With the squad gaps and available ££, it feels we could be anywhere from truely dismal to a repeat of last year.

[SuperSAINT]

1 minute ago, Suhari said:

Uncertain, tending to concerned would sum it up for me.

With an injection of ££ (and hence a couple of quality players) we should be fine, possibly pretty good. With the squad gaps and available ££, it feels we could be anywhere from truely dismal to a repeat of last year.

A very good summation!  Would be fantastic to have a new owner* (*subject to them being good) & get some optimism back.

[Toussaint]

1 hour ago, Antrimsaint said:

And theres the point. Anyone interested in us knows we are a surefire risk of relegation next season. Why would you stump up now. We are not a very good investment right now. 
 

If things go well on the pitch over the next few years and stable then I can see someone paying premier league money for us but if we are likely to be running the risk for a few years then there are far better bargains around.

our own wishful thinking wont make it happen. I personally think we are proper in it and will drop a league or two before we are rescued again.

Disagree, if you want the status of owning an EPL club at a relatively low price then we would be a good bet. There , is a risk of relegation next season if we don't improve the squad, but that is unlikely even without an investor. If an investor were to come in and back 2 or 3 signings the risk of relegation would be minimal.

[Convict Colony]

Just to add to that - covid price compared to relegated price is as not as much of a drop/risk as if they have to pay the pre/post covid price levels Gao was asking for.

You can buy a club for a depressed price, you could get relegated and your asset value drops but you will have parachute payments in the championship that will give you a competitive advantage and increase the likelihood of promotion assuming you have a decent board/manager.

[Antrimsaint]

1 hour ago, sadoldgit said:

There are plenty of clubs at risk of being relegated and I wouldn’t say it was a certainty for us. We have an excellent infrastructure, more tv money coming in and the basis of a good team. The problem is that there aren’t many people out there looking to buy football clubs.

It’s a fair point. I just don’t see it as the right time. The world is too unstable now for big investments. In fact I would be questioning the credibility of anyone wanting to buy Saints, or anyone, right now.. GAO wants his money back and no one is going to pay it. There is no margin. Better for GAO to do an Ashley and wait it out. I hope I’m wrong though.

[Dusic]

With how long these things take to sort out I would say the chances of any new ownership before the window shuts must be <5%

Gao picked an awful time to be wanting his money back.

[Matthew Le God]

1 hour ago, Dusic said:

With how long these things take to sort out I would say the chances of any new ownership before the window shuts must be <5%

How did you determine chance as a % when you are unaware if any talks are already underway or not? 

[Suhari]

Presumably there's no reason to announce an interested party are in a period of exclusivity? 

So things could be a long way along before we hear anything. Possibly the first we hear is the announcement of a new owner.

[MarkSFC]

1 hour ago, Matthew Le God said:

How did you determine chance as a % when you are unaware if any talks are already underway or not? 

It's called pessimism. 

[verlaine1979]

Have there been any indications that Gao is prepared to lose money on this deal? DaGrosa's comments would suggest the price wasn't as low as he was expecting it to be, which could be a problem.

It's hard to see the club being worth as much as it was when Gao bought us considering covid impact, the $80m debt and the fact that we still had an asset like VVD on the books at the time. Those last two alone are equal to half the purchase price of the club.

[Ex Lion Tamer]

10 minutes ago, verlaine1979 said:

Have there been any indications that Gao is prepared to lose money on this deal? DaGrosa's comments would suggest the price wasn't as low as he was expecting it to be, which could be a problem.

It's hard to see the club being worth as much as it was when Gao bought us considering covid impact, the $80m debt and the fact that we still had an asset like VVD on the books at the time. Those last two alone are equal to half the purchase price of the club.

There was an article which suggested Gao will be in trouble with the Chinese government if he sells at a loss

[HarvSFC]

Liebherr bought the club for £13m, probably spent less than £10m in transfer fees on obtaining the best players of League One/the Championship in Lambert, Hammond, Fonte, Barnard, Puncheon, Cork and Sharp. (Plus others, and obviously our last paid for manager in Adkins). He did of course need to invest in a new training ground, which we now have and didn't have the Premier League money incoming. There wasn't a guarantee of the consecutive promotions, he did have to take a risk, but our club at the moment is valued at £200m and probably needs a further £60m put into the playing squad to remain competitive. You can see why a billionaire was tempted to buy us then, and why they may not be so much now when there could be better value around.

[Matthew Le God]

6 minutes ago, HarvSFC said:

Liebherr bought the club for £13m, probably spent less than £10m in transfer fees on obtaining the best players of League One/the Championship in Lambert, Hammond, Fonte, Barnard, Puncheon, Cork and Sharp. (Plus others, and obviously our last paid for manager in Adkins). He did of course need to invest in a new training ground, which we now have and didn't have the Premier League money incoming. There wasn't a guarantee of the consecutive promotions, he did have to take a risk, but our club at the moment is valued at £200m and probably needs a further £60m put into the playing squad to remain competitive. You can see why a billionaire was tempted to buy us then, and why they may not be so much now when there could be better value around.

You have conflated the spending of Markus and Katharina. Most of the spending came after Markus' death. Plus £4m was paid to Aviva ontop of the initial £13m on promotion to the Premier League.

[verlaine1979]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

You have conflated the spending of Markus and Katharina. Most of the spending came after Markus' death. Plus £4m was paid to Aviva ontop of the initial £13m on promotion to the Premier League.

The fact remains that an asset bought for c.£20m became an asset sold for c.£300m. No one is getting a 10x return on buying Saints now, let alone a 15x return.

[EBS1980]

7 hours ago, Convict Colony said:

Or waiting for the accounts to close end of June ?

Maybe hear something July 1 ??? pure guessing but that might make sense 

The top line numbers were announced though weren’t they? I would imagine anyone looking to buy would have seen the latest set of management accounts which would be more upto date that then submitted statutory accounts filed at companies house. 

[Convict Colony]

56 minutes ago, EBS1980 said:

The top line numbers were announced though weren’t they? I would imagine anyone looking to buy would have seen the latest set of management accounts which would be more upto date that then submitted statutory accounts filed at companies house. 

yeah was just thinking about a clean start to align with the new financial year etc.

[Suhari]

Here's one for us dreamers...

Gareth Bale to buy Saints. Fits with his comments about announcing something big after the Euros, and the ongoing absence of any takeover news. And Vardy just bought a chunk of a club, so it's not unprecedented.

Who else should we include in this fantasy takeover team? Got to have Tom Jones in it.

Edited 16 June, 2021 by Suhari

[charliemiller]

Don't Forget Gao took out a secured loan to buy the 80 pc from Macquarie.

He can't take less than the settlement figure

[The Cat]

32 minutes ago, Suhari said:

Here's one for us dreamers...

Gareth Bale to buy Saints. Fits with his comments about announcing something big after the Euros, and the ongoing absence of any takeover news. And Vardy just bought a chunk of a club, so it's not unprecedented.

Who else should we include in this fantasy takeover team? Got to have Tom Jones in it.

Player managers have been a thing, but has there ever been a player owner apart from that mental bloke at Billaricay?

[saint1977]

2 hours ago, charliemiller said:

Don't Forget Gao took out a secured loan to buy the 80 pc from Macquarie.

He can't take less than the settlement figure

Oh yes he can, or will have no choice, if the club gets relegated or looks very likely to be, even with that and the pressure from PRC. A smaller loss is better than most of £200m. 

[Daft Kerplunk]

11 hours ago, Matthew Le God said:

You have conflated the spending of Markus and Katharina. Most of the spending came after Markus' death. Plus £4m was paid to Aviva ontop of the initial £13m on promotion to the Premier League.

The money put in the club by KL was also loans that were paid back. The only ‘investor’ was ML. When Gao purchased the club, he bought 80% of KL’s shares and has not invested in the club as the club has not seen any of the money. It was a dud deal and Marin Semmens was the clubs strategy lead at the time and brains behind the deal with Gao. For KL, it was a great bit of business, for Saints as a football club, it has and will continue to be terrible. 

[tajjuk]

1 hour ago, Daft Kerplunk said:

 terrible. 

Still don't get how it's terrible. 

He's taken no money out. 

He's let football people run the club and as far as we know not interfered in anything. 

If that is rated as terrible, then what are like the Glazers? 

He's got to be one of the most neutral owners out there, puts no money in, takes none out, doesn't interfere, hasn't tried to change the stadium name or the kit or something and we barely see him (which also means he's not embarrassing the club on twitter or something) 

[The Curse of St Mary's]

1 hour ago, tajjuk said:

Still don't get how it's terrible. 

He's taken no money out. 

He's let football people run the club and as far as we know not interfered in anything. 

If that is rated as terrible, then what are like the Glazers? 

He's got to be one of the most neutral owners out there, puts no money in, takes none out, doesn't interfere, hasn't tried to change the stadium name or the kit or something and we barely see him (which also means he's not embarrassing the club on twitter or something) 

Spot on. Gao just can't take us forward as a club. Fans always strive for more and better which is fine but obviously requires new ownership to achieve that. That being said, we are still paying for past mistakes from even before Gao bought the club. Our struggles of recent years have been a result of poor recruitment and managerial appointments not a direct consequence of Gao owning the club or his decision making. Les Reed, Ralph Krueger and Ross Wilson biggest culprits. 

[SW5 SAINT]

11 hours ago, The Cat said:

Player managers have been a thing, but has there ever been a player owner apart from that mental bloke at Billaricay?

There’s the ManU old boys consortium at Salford City……