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31 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Because most of the world won’t have been vaccinated within the next year and there are a reasonable number for whom the vaccine won’t be effective anyway. If we want to start allowing travel between countries which are well behind us, we’re going to have to try and limit the spread of infection wherever possible.

I get the feeling you quite like the restrictions. People have been compliant up to now as have followed the logic but most don’t want to stay fearful wearing masks just in case fir the rest of their lives. 
Must be those with a different mindset to me who have been vaccinated but then fear variants or people who haven’t been vaccinated. 

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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

Because most of the world won’t have been vaccinated within the next year and there are a reasonable number for whom the vaccine won’t be effective anyway. If we want to start allowing travel between countries which are well behind us, we’re going to have to try and limit the spread of infection wherever possible.

Most of the world aren’t going to be in Tesco Bursledon though are they? 
 

I think most would settle in the short term for a completely normal UK if it meant sacrificing travel to unvaccinated parts of the world. 
 

To have neither makes the vaccine rollout success a waste of time. 

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10 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

Most of the world aren’t going to be in Tesco Bursledon though are they? 
 

I think most would settle in the short term for a completely normal UK if it meant sacrificing travel to unvaccinated parts of the world. 
 

To have neither makes the vaccine rollout success a waste of time. 

Well yes, they are. Literally anyone who enters the country is going to be using our shops, public transport and whatever else. We're trying to get things as close to normal as possible but it needs to be done carefully and with the right priorities. By sacrificing travel to unvaccinated parts of the world, you basically mean all of it, apart from maybe the USA and Israel. Personally, I'd happily wear a mask for ten minutes in B&Q if it meant I could go on holiday again but to each their own.

 

I really can't understand your last sentence, it honestly baffles me. Thanks to our vaccination success, we're opening everything up whilst the rest of Europe is locking down. Boris has literally just said we can open pubs (outdoors) hair salons etc. next week and you're somehow managing to pretend that isn't happening, so you can call it a waste of time.

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23 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Well yes, they are. Literally anyone who enters the country is going to be using our shops, public transport and whatever else. We're trying to get things as close to normal as possible but it needs to be done carefully and with the right priorities. By sacrificing travel to unvaccinated parts of the world, you basically mean all of it, apart from maybe the USA and Israel. Personally, I'd happily wear a mask for ten minutes in B&Q if it meant I could go on holiday again but to each their own.

 

I really can't understand your last sentence, it honestly baffles me. Thanks to our vaccination success, we're opening everything up whilst the rest of Europe is locking down. Boris has literally just said we can open pubs (outdoors) hair salons etc. next week and you're somehow managing to pretend that isn't happening, so you can call it a waste of time.

Then surely the solution is pretty simple, if I need a ‘covid status certificate’ to go to certain places then everyone should need one just to enter this country, no ifs or buts. Carrying on with very much abnormal things like social distancing and masks because of unvaccinated tourists is crazy. 
 

Vaccines weren’t sold as a route to “close to normal” or even a new normal.

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4 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

Then surely the solution is pretty simple, if I need a ‘covid status certificate’ to go to certain places then everyone should need one just to enter this country, no ifs or buts. Carrying on with very much abnormal things like social distancing and masks because of unvaccinated tourists is crazy. 
 

Vaccines weren’t sold as a route to “close to normal” or even a new normal.

Exactly. If every UK residents has to carry a vaccine cert also needing one to get out the country then so should everyone coming into the country. Pretty simple to fix really. 

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7 hours ago, Raging Bull said:

Everyone repeat after me. “They don’t want to give us our old normal back and the gullible are soaking it up”.

Everyone repeat after me:

"The mentalists have convinced themselves that this is all about social control". 

 

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8 hours ago, Raging Bull said:

Everyone repeat after me. “They don’t want to give us our old normal back and the gullible are soaking it up”.

There's definitely some gullible people around, that's for sure.

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Can't Bill Gates just add a Covid status facility to the tracking App that we've all had injected into us?

Then we could just be scanned, like in Lidl.

Infected drinker in the bagging area...

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10 hours ago, RedArmy said:

Then surely the solution is pretty simple, if I need a ‘covid status certificate’ to go to certain places then everyone should need one just to enter this country, no ifs or buts. Carrying on with very much abnormal things like social distancing and masks because of unvaccinated tourists is crazy. 
 

Vaccines weren’t sold as a route to “close to normal” or even a new normal.

Well, if the whole world is back to normal, including international travel, then we can look at doing away with masks and SD too. Right now what we have is no travel, most of our neighbours in lockdown and half a country which has had half a vaccine, that won’t help 1/10 people anyway.

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2 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Sounds a bit bit controlling 🚳🚭🚯📵🚭 

Ha!! Merely mimicking the "controlled" poster. 

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4 hours ago, skintsaint said:

LINKY

Could be the start of how travel might be for the next year or so.

Yep. More chance of going to the US this summer then France, that’s for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

Well, if the whole world is back to normal, including international travel, then we can look at doing away with masks and SD too. 

So you’re happy to have masks and social distancing in this country for another 5 years? 
 

Heads gone. 

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2 minutes ago, RedArmy said:

So you’re happy to have masks and social distancing in this country for another 5 years? 
 

Heads gone. 

Happy?! 😆

 

This is about what we can and can’t do, happiness doesn’t come into it. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, masks and SD are the last thing I care about. I’ll worry about that when literally everything else is back to normal and the professors of immunology, virology and all the other words I can barely spell say the world is safe and we can all go back to normal.

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2 hours ago, LGTL said:

Yep. More chance of going to the US this summer then France, that’s for sure. 

France and most of Europe will be open by August imo. They will have just finished  lockdown and vaccinations will be much more prevalent. They already have 14% vaccinated and another c300,000 people per day  

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3 hours ago, RedArmy said:

So you’re happy to have masks and social distancing in this country for another 5 years? 
 

Heads gone. 

Chris Whitty made an interesting speech about how covid is something we have to get used to and people will have to learn to live with it like flu and that the level of acceptable risk is down to the population to decide, not him or SAGE.  That's obviously true, makes me wonder whether Johnson is actually the one avoiding making that decision / having that debate 

Edited by buctootim
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The lateral flow test idea is insanely daft. 
what is the false positive rate?  1 in 1000?

 

let’s say 10m people do their 2 tests per week? We will back in lockdown before you know it on the back of thousands of false positives. 
 

Hopefully, the PM will back down on this one. 

let’s be honest, the take up will be minimal, against the extravagant cost for all this!l, against the idea that the intent is to tell people who are absolutely fine, that they are absolutely fine. Remember, the age-group where 99% of those who died with COVID have had at least 1 jab already!

 

I see the 'modelling' for the 3rd wave (given how wildly over-estimated these have been to date) has daily deaths remaining below 100.

Edited by AlexLaw76
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10 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

The lateral flow test idea is insanely daft. 
what is the false positive rate?  1 in 1000?

 

let’s say 10m people do their 2 tests per week? We will back in lockdown before you know it on the back of thousands of false positives. 
 

Hopefully, the PM will back down on this one. 

let’s be honest, the take up will be minimal, against the extravagant cost for all this!l, against the idea that the intent is to tell people who are absolutely fine, that they are absolutely fine. Remember, 99% of those who die with COVID have had at least 1 jab already!

I think you mean 'of those who might have previously died with Covid'. Or at least I hope you do ;)

 

Our local comprehensive school has just over a thousand students. With two tests a week that means about two false positives a week yet people talk as if there were actual cases at the school.

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And if they think people are going to do tests at home for the hell of it they must be mad. No way am I doing when I clearly haven’t got Covid 

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13 minutes ago, whelk said:

And if they think people are going to do tests at home for the hell of it they must be mad. No way am I doing when I clearly haven’t got Covid 

Ramming things up your nostrils isn't already part of your weekly schedule??  Takes all sorts

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1 hour ago, whelk said:

So is the third wave coming from vaccinated people having an ineffective vaccine?

Chile are fucked again and they've had a higher vaccine roll out than us. Whether it's a variant bypassing the vaccine, or a surge amongst the unvaccinated proportion I don't know, but it ain't good. 

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5 minutes ago, egg said:

Chile are fucked again and they've had a higher vaccine roll out than us. Whether it's a variant bypassing the vaccine, or a surge amongst the unvaccinated proportion I don't know, but it ain't good. 

 

Aren't they using the better than nothing but not very good Chinese sinovac?   

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3 minutes ago, buctootim said:

 

Aren't they using the better than nothing but not very good Chinese sinovac?   

No idea mate. If so, that may explain it though. 

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1 hour ago, buctootim said:

Ramming things up your nostrils isn't already part of your weekly schedule??  Takes all sorts

Next they’ll be demanding we touch and check our bollocks twice a week just in case you have testicular cancer.  Actually that’s an easy one!

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Just now, whelk said:

Next they’ll be demanding we touch and check our bollocks twice a week just in case you have testicular cancer.  Actually that’s an easy one!

I'm not looking forward to the twice weekly prostate tests.

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11 minutes ago, buctootim said:

 

Aren't they using the better than nothing but not very good Chinese sinovac?   

Again I ask why are they revealing the data in new infections- are they vaccinated people or not?

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2 minutes ago, whelk said:

Again I ask why are they revealing the data in new infections- are they vaccinated people or not?

Dunno 🤷‍♂️ Evrn new infections aren’t that important. Only hospitalisation and deaths 

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14 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Dunno 🤷‍♂️ Evrn new infections aren’t that important. Only hospitalisation and deaths 

But the third wave has to start with infections. Hospitalisation and deaths also should be revealed. Don’t want to become some conspiro nut but they are treating us like idiots with how little analysis of the data is forthcoming. Same with fat and old people and so patronising.

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1 minute ago, whelk said:

But the third wave has to start with infections. Hospitalisation and deaths also should be revealed. Don’t want to become some conspiro nut but they are treating us like idiots with how little analysis of the data is forthcoming. Same with fat and old people and so patronising.

New infections did provide a canary warning about impending serious disease and death and the need to act. Arguably they don't any longer when most of the population liable to serious illness have been vaccinated. I've never cared about being infected with covid -only about being seriously ill or dying from it. 

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8 hours ago, buctootim said:

Chris Whitty made an interesting speech about how covid is something we have to get used to and people will have to learn to live with it like flu and that the level of acceptable risk is down to the population to decide, not him or SAGE.  That's obviously true, makes me wonder whether Johnson is actually the one avoiding making that decision / having that debate 

Spot on. It’s clear Boris is avoiding decisions, he’s trying to cover his arse. Advisors advise, and ministers decide, lockdown measures and the relaxing of them, is a political decisions, not a medical one.  The great lady would have made decisions one way or the other, as would Blair. All this hiding behind SAGE shows a lack of backbone imo. 

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1 hour ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Spot on. It’s clear Boris is avoiding decisions, he’s trying to cover his arse. Advisors advise, and ministers decide, lockdown measures and the relaxing of them, is a political decisions, not a medical one.  The great lady would have made decisions one way or the other, as would Blair. All this hiding behind SAGE shows a lack of backbone imo. 

As a Tory its in your hands. Johnson never fit for purpose.  

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7 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Spot on. It’s clear Boris is avoiding decisions, he’s trying to cover his arse. Advisors advise, and ministers decide, lockdown measures and the relaxing of them, is a political decisions, not a medical one.  The great lady would have made decisions one way or the other, as would Blair. All this hiding behind SAGE shows a lack of backbone imo. 

 

AFE9730C-F7DC-4959-A1BA-2693BB08A32B.gif

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UK to be at heard immunity by Monday. 👏🏻👏👏🏼👏🏽👏🏾👏🏿

yet Sage saying there will be a surge in hospitalization between August and October? Why, won’t every adult have a vaccine by then? Last summer with no vaccines there were only a few hundred infections a day. Why is there going to be a surge this summer when the whole country has been vaccinated 

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1 hour ago, Lighthouse said:

Strangely, when you tell under 30s they could get a blood clot from shovelling burgers down their neck every day, they don’t seem to care as much.

Not to mention smoking.

Eat too many burgers and they’re in danger of a throat clot.

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27 minutes ago, Turkish said:

UK to be at heard immunity by Monday. 👏🏻👏👏🏼👏🏽👏🏾👏🏿

yet Sage saying there will be a surge in hospitalization between August and October? Why, won’t every adult have a vaccine by then? Last summer with no vaccines there were only a few hundred infections a day. Why is there going to be a surge this summer when the whole country has been vaccinated 

We heard it here first.

Not a popular opinion I know, but there is more to all this than meets the eye.

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1 minute ago, CollinsDic said:

We heard it here first.

Not a popular opinion I know, but there is more to all this than meets the eye.

i nearly lost my best mate to Covid so certainly aware of how serious it can be. However the sage predictions don’t stack up, as I say last summer with no one vaccinated there were negligible infections when with the farcical eat out to help out and loads of people going abroad for holidays. By this August everyone will be vaccinated, so how can they say there will be a summer rise  to january levels? This has got to be bollocks.

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15 minutes ago, Turkish said:

i nearly lost my best mate to Covid so certainly aware of how serious it can be. However the sage predictions don’t stack up, as I say last summer with no one vaccinated there were negligible infections when with the farcical eat out to help out and loads of people going abroad for holidays. By this August everyone will be vaccinated, so how can they say there will be a summer rise  to january levels? This has got to be bollocks.

Perhaps not. The Covid 19 crisiis in Continental Europe is pretty serious just now, probably because the vaccination programme here is a bit of a joke, started late, poorly organised and not enough doses. Here in France we don't even know how many cases there are each day due to regular statistics bungles Then you have to consider that some of the early administrated vaccine doses in the UK will be beginning to fade in efficiency, if you take the 6 months protection estimate as gospel that is. 

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2 minutes ago, Window Cleaner said:

Perhaps not. The Covid 19 crisiis in Continental Europe is pretty serious just now, probably because the vaccination programme here is a bit of a joke, started late, poorly organised and not enough doses. Here in France we don't even know how many cases there are each day due to regular statistics bungles Then you have to consider that some of the early administrated vaccine doses in the UK will be beginning to fade in efficiency, if you take the 6 months protection estimate as gospel that is. 

That's a point I hadn't appreciated. If its not the issue, most of the vulnerable have had the first vaccine, and it's hard to see a case for fearing a 3rd wave once they've had the second jab. I can only guess its a concern about loads of cases amongst the unvaccinated and/or variants slipping past the vaccine. 

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32 minutes ago, Turkish said:

i nearly lost my best mate to Covid so certainly aware of how serious it can be. However the sage predictions don’t stack up, as I say last summer with no one vaccinated there were negligible infections when with the farcical eat out to help out and loads of people going abroad for holidays. By this August everyone will be vaccinated, so how can they say there will be a summer rise  to january levels? This has got to be bollocks.

These predictions baffle me as well but playing devils advocate and a bit of guesswork:

Last summer and autumn were not what you'd call "normal".  We still had social distancing, mask wearing, working from home etc so maybe they're working on the assumption that won't be the case and the virus will rip through the population much easier than last year.  The vaccines probably won't stop infection for most people but will mitigate against the most serious effects (for most) so by the end of the year it could be the case that the majority of us will have had it.  Obviously most won't really notice it but it does leave the unvaccinated and unlucky vaccinated in a more vulnerable position.  Clearly mutant strains that are more vaccine resistant will make the situation worse.

Another reason I can think for the doom and gloom is to keep up the pressure on people to take the vaccine - if they think everything is all OK they might not be quite so bothered.  I'd expect to see another wave of articles on long COVID and the effects on younger people to start up again soon.

They don't expect the vaccinations to be as effective or to last that long.

They expect the South African and similar strains to become the dominant strain.

As I say, it does seem strange that we're still getting dire predictions of another equally serious wave and the above is an attempt to guess at why that would be - not necessarily saying I agree with any of the points. 

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1 hour ago, revolution saint said:

These predictions baffle me as well but playing devils advocate and a bit of guesswork:

Last summer and autumn were not what you'd call "normal".  We still had social distancing, mask wearing, working from home etc so maybe they're working on the assumption that won't be the case and the virus will rip through the population much easier than last year.  The vaccines probably won't stop infection for most people but will mitigate against the most serious effects (for most) so by the end of the year it could be the case that the majority of us will have had it.  Obviously most won't really notice it but it does leave the unvaccinated and unlucky vaccinated in a more vulnerable position.  Clearly mutant strains that are more vaccine resistant will make the situation worse.

Another reason I can think for the doom and gloom is to keep up the pressure on people to take the vaccine - if they think everything is all OK they might not be quite so bothered.  I'd expect to see another wave of articles on long COVID and the effects on younger people to start up again soon.

They don't expect the vaccinations to be as effective or to last that long.

They expect the South African and similar strains to become the dominant strain.

As I say, it does seem strange that we're still getting dire predictions of another equally serious wave and the above is an attempt to guess at why that would be - not necessarily saying I agree with any of the points. 

It’s the same old method isn’t it. Just a few more months they say, then we get their drip fed articles about how we aren’t there yet, new variants, vaccines are our way out of it, now testing it our way out of it, it goes on and on and round and round.  This latest news from Sage is particularly baffling though, there seems to be absolutely no reason why we’re to expect a late summer wave as bad as January. I also don’t get the look at how bad it is in Europe rationale either. It was really bad in Europe this time last year, films of vans full of bodies being carried away in Italy, the french having to carry documents to prove why they were out the house. Yet despite all that last summer life was relatively normal here with minimal infections. Now with half the country vaccinated and saying herd immunity on Monday they’re saying prepare for another big wave back end of the summer, Not buying it. None of it stacks up

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2 hours ago, Turkish said:

It’s the same old method isn’t it. Just a few more months they say, then we get their drip fed articles about how we aren’t there yet, new variants, vaccines are our way out of it, now testing it our way out of it, it goes on and on and round and round.  This latest news from Sage is particularly baffling though, there seems to be absolutely no reason why we’re to expect a late summer wave as bad as January. I also don’t get the look at how bad it is in Europe rationale either. It was really bad in Europe this time last year, films of vans full of bodies being carried away in Italy, the french having to carry documents to prove why they were out the house. Yet despite all that last summer life was relatively normal here with minimal infections. Now with half the country vaccinated and saying herd immunity on Monday they’re saying prepare for another big wave back end of the summer, Not buying it. None of it stacks up

We are about to reach herd immunity and have the lowest death rate in Europe (or one of).  You would have thought this was the biggest news of the year, yet very little about it on the front pages or the news.

 

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4 hours ago, revolution saint said:

Another reason I can think for the doom and gloom is to keep up the pressure on people to take the vaccine - if they think everything is all OK they might not be quite so bothered.  I'd expect to see another wave of articles on long COVID and the effects on younger people to start up again soon.

 

This seems to be the reason, the figures for the others just don't stack up.

Unless some mutant strain comes along between now and then - and so far, they've gone on record to say the vaccine is effective against the current strains - which no-one can reliably predict, then a biblical third wave isn't possible due to herd immunity, which is only going to get stronger from now on as more vaccines are given.

My guess is this is part of the 'spin' to encourage people to get jabbed and not worry about the side effects.

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