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Relegation prices thread 2021/22.


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Well, here we are folks - again. Will the people who have filled the last four editions of this with "we are 100% down" have learnt their lesson? Will those who assume that because we survived those we'll survive again be in for a nasty surprise? Opening salvo following the opening day defeat at Everton is 3/1 - the bedwetters will be astonished we're not odds-on already whilst those who see a team that topped the table last November and have added the Golden Boot winner elect and the greatest RB to ever play the game, will be surprised it doesn't have a nought after it. We shall see......

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7th most likely to be relegated as it stands, oddswise. We are still less likely than Watford, Brentford, Norwich, Palace, Newcastle and Burnley

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On 15/08/2021 at 12:18, TWar said:

7th most likely to be relegated as it stands, oddswise. We are still less likely than Watford, Brentford, Norwich, Palace, Newcastle and Burnley

I would even stick my neck out and say that Wolves, Brighton, Villa and Leeds will not be that great this season, but not sure if we will be much better than them, but will not be far off each other. 

Edited by Dr Who?
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If we can get our defence to play with any consistency then I think we should be fine.  We have more about us than the 6 who have lower odds than us but we must be one of the most erratic teams in premier league history so who knows.

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The only team I feel is nailed on to go down is Norwich and I fancy 2 from Watford, Burnley and Newcastle to join them.  Watford are a bit naiive, Newcastle are crap, Burnley are surrounded by uncertainty after a recent takeover and have stalled for some time now.  If they do get reinforcements I think they'll be OK, but it's a big if.

Don't think Brentford will go down (I backed them to stay up at the start of the season and there is nothing to suggest that will change) - they are just too well run.  You'll be fine too (even without strengthening I think you'll be 16th at worst), and we (Brighton) will be nowhere near the relegation places this season either IMO, although we need a left back and a goal scorer if we are to kick on significantly.

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You've needed a goal scorer for a while now.. We know early season form can be deceptive but I think you'll be alright too. Perhaps Arsenal are this year's dark horse, although I don't see Arteta seeing the event..

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2 minutes ago, suewhistle said:

You've needed a goal scorer for a while now.. We know early season form can be deceptive but I think you'll be alright too. Perhaps Arsenal are this year's dark horse, although I don't see Arteta seeing the event..

Defensively we're as good as anyone in the bottom half, and we have Bissouma who is the best midfielder I've seen at the club - we won't keep hold of him for more than another year.

Arsenal will be fine once they stiffen up their defence.  They need a Bould/Adams type of player to take control of things at the back, playing alongside White.  Even without that, they'll have far too much to get involved in a relegation fight.

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7 minutes ago, Simster said:

Defensively we're as good as anyone in the bottom half, and we have Bissouma who is the best midfielder I've seen at the club - we won't keep hold of him for more than another year.

Arsenal will be fine once they stiffen up their defence.  They need a Bould/Adams type of player to take control of things at the back, playing alongside White.  Even without that, they'll have far too much to get involved in a relegation fight.

Didn’t you drop more points from winning positions than any other team last season? Would suggest if you sort that out, you don’t need a new goalscorer.

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I think we are strong enough this year tbh, added to the fact there should be enough below us to keep us safe;

I think there’s plenty of potential candidates 👇

Norwich, Newcastle, Wolves, Saints, Brighton, Palace, Burnley, Watford, Brentford will all be there or there abouts and I think we have goals this year

Norwich, Watford and Palace would be my picks with Burnley, Newcastle and maybe even Wolves if they continue their profligacy 

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1 minute ago, Smirking_Saint said:

Norwich, Watford and Palace would be my picks with Burnley, Newcastle and maybe even Wolves if they continue their profligacy 

Well I just learnt a new word.  I agree with your predictions though.  I had Saints down as near-certain relegation fodder the minute Ings went, but the way we've played and gone about our business in the last couple of weeks has given me optimism.  Keep the injuries at bay and I think we'll do ok.

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9 minutes ago, Manuel said:

Well I just learnt a new word.  I agree with your predictions though.  I had Saints down as near-certain relegation fodder the minute Ings went, but the way we've played and gone about our business in the last couple of weeks has given me optimism.  Keep the injuries at bay and I think we'll do ok.

I was certainly worried but I think we have goals in us, especially if we can get S Armstrong back into the mix, we’ve been creative enough so far

Our issue will be defensively and Im not convinced AT ALL that JS has turned any sort of consistent corner.. but we’ll see

My ‘optimism’ is more to do with a lack of quality around us, I feel it could be another ‘we got away with it’ season and Ill take that !!

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On 15/08/2021 at 18:39, Pedantic Pete said:

One of the relegation spots has already been taken, according to the Arsenal fans I saw bedwetting on social media on Friday! At least we only have two places to worry about.

 

One does not bedwet when one is gone. It's when one has a glimmer of hope of survival that one bedwets.

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1 hour ago, Smirking_Saint said:

I think we are strong enough this year tbh, added to the fact there should be enough below us to keep us safe;

I think there’s plenty of potential candidates 👇

Norwich, Newcastle, Wolves, Saints, Brighton, Palace, Burnley, Watford, Brentford will all be there or there abouts and I think we have goals this year

Norwich, Watford and Palace would be my picks with Burnley, Newcastle and maybe even Wolves if they continue their profligacy 

I think Wolves will be okay - their first three games were Leicester, Spurs and United. 

They should have got something at Leicester and certainly should have beaten United.

I am expecting an 18th placed team to put up more of a fight this year though. Last seasons relegation battle was practically a foregone conclusion

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Hard to know how to view it. We have a better squad than a fair few teams. We haven't looked like going down since the Pellegrino/Hughes season. 

But McCarthy can't keep a clean sheet and it's stopping us winning any games. It all depends how that goes. Is 2021 so far just a bad form/bad luck tale, or was the form before that the blip?

Our first 5 fixtures this season's corresponding games last year brought us 1 point. So we're doing better than then with West Ham and City to come. For Saints, Goodison Park, St James and the Emirates is as bad as it gets really to start the away season. 

I think we'll be alright. We'll beat plenty of bottom half teams at home and give most of them a game away. Should pick up 40-45 points. But fans always seem to forget that 14th-17th are pretty rubbish and lose a lot of games each season. All the 'we're down' stuff gets pretty ridiculous.

Norwich will go. Watford will struggle to stay up but have a couple of useful players. Burnley might finally run out of luck. Palace, Newcastle and Brighton will probably just about do enough but lose a lot of games. Brentford who knows, could well have a poor run at some point and be sucked into it. 7th favourites for the drop sounds about right for Saints.

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I think we have a weaker team, but a stronger squad which I think will see us good as it gets to Christmas time. Last season when Inges was out we missed him big time. Also very early days but I think our new signings look pretty handy, but only time will tell. Another centre back would be nice. 
 

I think Norwich, Watford and Newcastle will go down, but the below will all finish below us. 

Wolves, Brentford, Brighton, Palace and Burnley. With Leeds and Villa on par and not much between us. 

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For what it's worth, All 3 of the NBC commentators here in America (Robbie Earle, Robbie Mustoe, and Tim Howard) predicted these 3 clubs to be relegated on the broadcast here yesterday:

Norwich, Southampton, Watford

 

unshockingly, they all picked Chelsea, Liverpool, City, United as final top 4.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 31/08/2021 at 15:43, adriansfc said:

Hard to know how to view it. We have a better squad than a fair few teams. We haven't looked like going down since the Pellegrino/Hughes season. 

But McCarthy can't keep a clean sheet (He just did) and it's stopping us winning any games. It all depends how that goes. Is 2021 so far just a bad form/bad luck tale, or was the form before that the blip?

Our first 5 fixtures this season's corresponding games last year brought us 1 point. So we're doing better than then with West Ham and City to come. For Saints, Goodison Park, St James and the Emirates is as bad as it gets really to start the away season. 

I think we'll be alright. We'll beat plenty of bottom half teams at home and give most of them a game away. Should pick up 40-45 points. But fans always seem to forget that 14th-17th are pretty rubbish and lose a lot of games each season. All the 'we're down' stuff gets pretty ridiculous.

Norwich will go. Watford will struggle to stay up but have a couple of useful players. Burnley might finally run out of luck. Palace, Newcastle and Brighton will probably just about do enough but lose a lot of games. Brentford who knows, could well have a poor run at some point and be sucked into it. 7th favourites for the drop sounds about right for Saints.

Norwich are a bit of an enigma, too good for the Championship yet falling at the first hurdle every time in the PL. They never seem able to kick on from their great performances of the previous seasons like Wolves, Leeds and others have done. You'd have to say on current form that they are dead certs for the drop. WBA are much in the same mould but that's for next year.

Watford, I'm no so sure. At times they can play some brilliant stuff. I have a feeling that Wolves may struggle along with Newcastle & Leeds both of whom seem to have weak defences.

Saints will finish 13th. Burnley as always will survive one place below us.

Relegation?  Norwich, Newcastle, Brighton

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44 minutes ago, Charlie Wayman said:

Norwich are a bit of an enigma, too good for the Championship yet falling at the first hurdle every time in the PL. They never seem able to kick on from their great performances of the previous seasons like Wolves, Leeds and others have done. You'd have to say on current form that they are dead certs for the drop. WBA are much in the same mould but that's for next year.

Watford, I'm no so sure. At times they can play some brilliant stuff. I have a feeling that Wolves may struggle along with Newcastle & Leeds both of whom seem to have weak defences.

Saints will finish 13th. Burnley as always will survive one place below us.

Relegation?  Norwich, Newcastle, Brighton

Brighton will not be relegated.

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Burnley might well go down. The 'they never go down thing' always comes to an end. As it might for us sooner rather than later if we're not careful. At the moment it seems we're mostly going about things the right way and slowly building. 

I think Burnley have weakened for several years now. Experience got them through during covid but they don't see as defensively strong now. Only McNeil seems like a genuinely impressive attacking threat there, I think he'd thrive in a better more attacking side. 

Norwich I feel sorry for. They've improved tactically but they lost their best player and aren't going to score many. If the run goes on a while it could become a write off season by Christmas. I don't think much of Watford either even though they've managed a win. 

Burnley, Norwich, Watford, Brentford and Newcastle bottom five IMO closely followed by Brighton, Saints and Palace in some order. Hope it's not just the promoted 3 who go back down while West Brom and Fulham stroll the Championship. 

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Norwich have had quite a difficult start (Liverpool, City, Leicester, Arsenal) so you never know they might do something when it eases.

Interestingly, no relegated team has gotten over 34 points in the last 5 seasons, I assume because the big clubs are hoovering up ever more points, but it does suggest the threshold for safety has dropped and we're only 10(ish) wins away.

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31 minutes ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

 

Interestingly, no relegated team has gotten over 34 points in the last 5 seasons, I assume because the big clubs are hoovering up ever more points, but it does suggest the threshold for safety has dropped and we're only 10(ish) wins away.

Only 10 wins - how many league games have we won this year....................

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2 hours ago, Charlie Wayman said:

Norwich are a bit of an enigma, too good for the Championship yet falling at the first hurdle every time in the PL. They never seem able to kick on from their great performances of the previous seasons like Wolves, Leeds and others have done. You'd have to say on current form that they are dead certs for the drop. WBA are much in the same mould but that's for next year.

Watford, I'm no so sure. At times they can play some brilliant stuff. I have a feeling that Wolves may struggle along with Newcastle & Leeds both of whom seem to have weak defences.

Saints will finish 13th. Burnley as always will survive one place below us.

Relegation?  Norwich, Newcastle, Brighton

Brighton are not getting relegated!! Not unless Potter is poached pronto.

Saints aren't getting relegated. We've not been involved in and end of season/final game scrap with Ralph so far - and having us clear before the final game of the season that first season was a miracle tbh - i thought we were done under Hughes. Regardless, its certainly not going to happen this year. 

Edited by Saint86
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10 wins is plenty for the last twenty years or so and absolutely plenty when you look at the last few years.

I look forward to the annual shitting of pants around us needing 40 points but its been a long time since that was needed.

 

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38 minutes ago, IFHP said:

Only 10 wins - how many league games have we won this year....................

The way this season is going we'll probably with 4 or 5 but get enough draws to stay up 

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21 hours ago, jamesfp1 said:

37 is the new 40

It is lower than that!

2020/21 you could stay up with 28 points 

2019/20 you could stay up with 34 points 

2018/19 you could stay up with 34 points

2017/18 you could stay up with 33 points

2016/17 you could stay up with 34 points

 

Edited by Matthew Le God
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23 minutes ago, Matthew Le God said:

It is lower than that!

2020/21 you could stay up with 28 points 

2019/20 you could stay up with 34 points 

2018/19 you could stay up with 34 points

2017/18 you could stay up with 33 points

2016/17 you could stay up with 34 points

 

That was the points the 18th team had each season, you needed to better that to stay up ( which I know you'll now point out you could still stay up on those points as long as your goal difference was better but that's cutting too fine for a safety target)

Personally setting a points target can be a dangerous game, it depends on other team's results. I'd prefer it if we aimed for safe by game 35  for the sake of our blood pressure.. Weird to think with hindsight we were actually safe in early January last year, we just didn't know it.

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8 minutes ago, Wurzel said:

Personally setting a points target can be a dangerous game, it depends on other team's results. I'd prefer it if we aimed for safe by game 35  for the sake of our blood pressure.

It’s all largely nonsense anyway. All you can realistically do is try and win each game, or maybe get a point against certain teams. You go into a season with 114 points to play for and you get what you get.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Out to a whopping 9/1 after the win at Watford. Worth remembering these prices imo as although I very much doubt anyone will come on and say that is unbelievable value on a team that was always going down, you can bet your life if we lose a couple in a row they will say they did.....😉

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13 hours ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

I would be more optimistic this season. The defence is better and the Ings sale now looks like a very good bit of business. 14/1 does though offer some value when we have a bad run of fixtures.

Would hold out until the win against Norwich then put your insurance bet on.

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19 hours ago, Sergei Gotsmanov said:

I would be more optimistic this season. The defence is better and the Ings sale now looks like a very good bit of business. 14/1 does though offer some value when we have a bad run of fixtures.

I'm sure the likes of Lord Ducky, SKDman, AlexLaw, et al, would have doubled down at those odds, in the anticipation of a luxury holiday next summer. Madness for them not too, seeing how certain they are of our relegation this season.

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  • 4 weeks later...
4 minutes ago, Jeremy Corbyn said:

Seems a touch generous.  I would put us in the "probably wont go down" bracket and no more than 5/1, but maybe I'm too pessimistic.

Price relates to money laid not our chances. Just bookies making a book. Soon go down if people take that price. Bookies like an edge.

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