Hokie
-
Posts
100 -
Joined
Posts posted by Hokie
-
-
Just some background reading about what these climate models actually are. The article is written for the layman (at least one who can read something longer than 3 paragraphs and think about it) and is from what I think most would regard as a non-political scientific source. I think some of you may find it interesting and useful in understanding complex models. I think I have mentioned before, I do not work in climate modeling, but professionally have spent most my career simulating physical models of complex systems, and the article is spot on in the general theme of how they are made, compared, and how they are used to generate predictions.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/why-trust-climate-models-its-a-matter-of-simple-science/
-
On the bright side, we have two less major injuries than the last time we played there.
I've seen more effort in a friendly match 3 weeks before the start of the season. I'm pretty sure it was a managerial decision, not just the selection, but the effort. "Light training today, lads. Anyone gets hurt will be docked wages." Not whinging, myself. I wish it was a different attitude, but its not. Trying to be charitable, I wonder if the physio is looking at high fatigue levels in the team.
Don't understand the criticism of Clyne. I thought he looked like our most dangerous attacking option.
Feel very bad for anyone that traveled up for it, though.
-
I'm not sure a "perceptive" through ball would be played to Lambert. Maybe Davis thought it was JRod.
-
All fair points.
Following on from that, I found this reposte to Easterbrooks article which you may like
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/06/on-don-easterbrooks-updated-projection/
Entertaining, especially in the comments section, but not really proper science by either side.
What can I say, I'm skeptical about science by blog.
-
Dr. Don Easterbrook – a climate scientist and glacier expert from Washington State who correctly predicted back in 2000 that the Earth was entering a cooling phase – says to expect colder temperatures for at least the next two decades.
Do you consider CNS an unbiased news source?
Prof. Easterbrook is at Western Washington University, not Washington State (University). A big difference.
The "right on the money" is a quote from whom? Prof. Easterbrook, the CNS reporter?
"author of 150 scientific journal articles". Scopus has him down for 35. Web of Science lists 37. His web site seems to consider having an abstract at a conference as a publication, but its incorrect for CNS to call it a "journal publication." It's not.
"And so in 2000, I published a paper with the Geological Society of America..." I can't find a 2000 paper that addresses this. Perhaps its this 2001 work? Easterbrook, D.J. and Kovanen, D.J., 2001. The next 25 years: global warming or global cooling? Geologic and oceanographic evidence for cyclical climatic oscillations: Abstracts with Program, Geological Society of America, vol. 33, 253. It's not really a paper, its an "abstracts with program."
I'm really not having a go at Prof. Easterbrook, but if the article relies on "appeal to authority", I think one can factually refute the specifics of said appeal. Further, in 5 minutes and google I found 3 factual errors in the story. (The "right on the money" and a reporter asking, "How does it feel to have been right?” without actually checking to see if he was right, are choices I'd criticise as well.)
The article's focus on Al Gore, I consider to be a warning that the story is politically biased. (The photo of Gore is special, too.) Al Gore is not a scientist, or researcher in climate science. To call the IPCC models "Gore and the IPCC’s computer models" is an wholly inaccurate label, meant to appeal to the fact that Al Gore is basically a plank. (Logically, just because a plank believes it, doesn't prove a claim is false. Right?)
Anyhow, saving up the big criticism, is the graph you've included. I notice its stripped off the confidence intervals. When judging the accuracy of the predictions of the IPCC models, that's huge. Its more inconsistent when the text accurately text claims IPCC models predict up to 1 degree C per decade. Up to is the largest estimate. Look at the graph, and IPCC predicts (the red line) a increase of 1 degree over 40-50 years. That's the median. What't the lowest value? Can we agree that this article is political spin?
Further, the graph dates to 2000 (2001?). We have a decade plus of data. Can we compare the Easterbrook prediction to the 2000 IPCC predictions? That would be a chance to make a case! I actually want to see it!
BTW, I fully acknowledge that we could be going into a cooling due to a number of periodic mechanisms. But that needs to be shown, not speculated.
-
'tis a mathematician's answer.
We'll either have below 50%, or above, but not exactly 50%.
(Barring changes to rules, or a massive injury crisis that means we can only field 10 from the start)
Morgan came young enough, I'd say we count him as a half.
-
Your comments on Heuristic modelling are valid. A risky approach but when applied in the right scenarios a useful tool.
In my field, working with CSG companies to enable them to understand the characteristics of reservoirs including gas saturation, porosity etc.. we typically rely on multivariant, multivariate, multidimensional and stochastic methods. However, is some cases the use of correctly applied heuristic principles enables us to jump the gap to an accurate yield forecast for wells/stages etc. If you have access take a look at an SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers) paper 135523 I had involvement in which describes a practical application of these.
Looks like Kotov has no been overly prolific with his output as the paper I linked was approx 10yrs old and nothing of note since 2007.
Looks good, Paul. I can only access the first page here, but it seems like a good application of neural nets. Its a few years past publication, are you still using this model? As you add more data, is it performing better?
Fascinating tool--one I studied (lightly!) 20+ years ago, but have never found an application for in my work.
-
This paper is worth a read - if slightly long and heavy on the technicalities of modelling techniques
Records from the GISP2 Greenland ice core are considered in terms of dynamical systems theory and nonlinear prediction. Dynamical systems theory allows us to reconstruct some properties of a phenomenon based only on past behavior without any mechanistic assumptions or deterministic models. A short-term prediction of temperature, including a mean estimate and confidence interval, is made for 800 years into the future. The prediction suggests that the present short-time global warming trend will continue for at least 200 years and be followed by a reverse in the temperature trend.
http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Conferences/IAMG//Sessions/N/Papers/kotov.pdf
Thanks for that, Paul.
Interesting mathematics, but I'm not sure I'd put too much stock in a heuristic model (still waiting for someone to make money with them on the financial markets) tuned to proxy temperature measurements from a single location. It may be my bias but I think the way forward is more mechanistic within a Bayesian framework, like this http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/2793/2013/acp-13-2793-2013.pdf.
It would be a bit unfair to criticise a conference paper, but there are a number of questions that come to mind: how precisely did the author arrive at the parameters used for the Lorenz equations? What was the rationale for choosing the X coordinate for the reduction, rather than y, z, magnitude, or some other combination? While I liked the choice of PCA, why was oxygen isotope ratio broken out and considered a second data set? Did they consider including that in the PCA? Is there a quantitative assessment of the predictive capability, rather than just showing a chart that qualitatively looks similar? Perhaps these are answered in the paper, which I must admit I was reading over a beer on weekend evening.
The paper strikes me as the beginning effort of a larger modeling process, but I can't find future additions to the model in the literature. Do you know if Kotov has done more with it?
-
Not sure anyone has looked at it this way, but for the team that drew Saints 2-2 at SMS in 2012, they are still paying £31271 /mo (not including lump sum payments)
Ashdown £1968
Ward £505
Rocha £4128
Pearce £729
Halford £4070
Rekik --
Allan --
Norris £4568
Varney £3845
Etuhu --
Maguire --
Substitutes
Magri --
Scapuzzi --
Futacs --
Harris --
Kitson £11458
That is actually a bargain, because the 1-1 draw they got earlier that season is still costing them £79466 /month.
Henderson £1073
Rocha £4128
Pearce £729
Halford £4070
Mattock* --
Ward £505
Lawrence £10416
Mullins £21867
Thorne £11458
Kitson £11458
Norris £4568
Substitutes
Ashdown £1968
Mokoena £7226
Huseklepp --
Futacs --
Mwaruwari --
-
Google Stephen Goddard. You'll be embarassed you posted that.
An independent data analyst with his own Wordpress blog publishing under a pseudonym? Looks legit to me!
-
'Warmest on record'? How far back do these 'records' go?
Do you mean direct temperature measurements or proxy measures? Inferences of temperatures from things such as tree rings and ice cores that can go back a thousand years, and other techniques based on trace concentrations of chemicals and elements going back tens of thousands. Granted each comes with a debatable accuracy, but there are estimates that scientists have justified in the published literature as to their merits.
-
ahh....So you maybe on the verge of finally getting it?....What the hell took you so long?
Interesting articles regarding solar activity influencing regional cooling. What is the argument you would like to make regarding global warming/climate change that we should "get"? I can only speculate, and don't want to speak for you.
-
I think the question in the OP is poorly posed. If KL is only interested in SFC for its financial value, then the question isn't, "Is it profitable," but rather, "How does this investment compare to another?"
I'd estimate she would see £100-£150m if she sold the club, based on Fulham's sale price. (Yes, the actual number is ripe for argument, but go with it.) I'd expect she'd look for £10-20m per annum return outside football for that chunk of cash.
Obviously loose numbers, but it seems clear to me that if she's not interested in football, she is selling the club.
-
Anyone who wants to understand why America has the lowest energy costs in the world, without environmental damage, read this.
-
Should be a yellow and maybe introduce retrospective tv action as they do with off the ball incidents. If found guilty then a suspension should follow. It has to be stopped as no matter who does it I find annoying. Winning or losing by cheating aint right.
I'd like to see more suspensions for this, but still think advising referees to red card simulation in a DGSO would do more to discourage it.
Why? Suspensions punish players in future matches, and teams get to play with 11 men. Top teams like Chelsea have the depth to absorb a suspension anyhow. When a player dives in a DGSO, and he's successful, that actual match is affected with the keeper (or defender) is sent off. The game is set up to reward diving with this asymmetric punishment, so no one should be surprised when it happens.
-
Has all this double-training gone a bit too far ?
I've wondered the same. Plus the effect of playing on a heavy pitch. I assume it was like running on a mattress.
-
I agree with the OP.
Oscar gambled his yellow card and a possible goal against a red card for Davis and a PK. During a game a red (especially with substantial time left to play) is worth several yellows. A red on the goalkeeper also (essentially) uses up a sub. I'd love to see the international board address this. Otherwise its a gap in the rules that cynical, but rational players will abuse.
-
Not sure of your point, T,;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Soccer_League
USSF Division 1 MLS
USSF Division 2 NASL
USSF Division 3 USL Pro
Now it may be possible for a franchise to buy it's way into the top flight in the US, especially if there's an expansion of the League.
Maybe one of our transatlantic colleagues could clarify ?
A little more nuanced than just buying your way, but yes, that's largely it. Shame that they wont set up a promotion/relegation system as it would be unique in US sports.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expansion_of_Major_League_Soccer
-
I reckon that while he may have given the handball, it was close enough to the edge of the area that he would have placed the ball outside for a free kick rather than a penalty. Still a form of bottle, but one often used by referees.
Also, as I watched the match on a stream, I couldn't see what was done in central midfield after both the Cork and JWP substitutions. It looked like Gaston dropped deeper after JWP came off. Anyone there see what was done tactically and with whom?
-
Its all about opinions, but I didn't think Gazza did badly today. Not great mind, but not badly. Maybe a 5.5 or 6?
The first I saw as an outstanding goal by Spurs, rather than a mistake. Considering the pace Adebayor was running at, I thought Jos and Fox had him well marked. The cross was spot on, and the manner in which Adebayor leapt for it, I'm not sure you could expect or defend. A great keeper might have saved the shot, but I can't really fault Gaz for not saving it. I wouldn't expect a keeper to come out for a cross that low and hard for a man that has two defenders on him.
The second was comical, but more on Jos. The third again was sloppy, but more on Fox being mentally and physically slow to react.
On the plus side, Gazza did make a nice stop when Adebayor was through one-on-one. I hope that helps his confidence, especially on leaving his line, because we're stuck with him for a few more matches.
On the negative side, at this level, you need a keeper to make a few stops that you don't expect him to make. What has it been, four matches?I haven't seen a great save from him yet. Perhaps the one-on-one with Adebayor was his best moment, or, while not a save, he came out well on Soldado late, when Soldado put it in the side netting.
Boruc was good for dropping your jaw a few times a game. I could also, while not expecting it, see Artur stopping all 3 today. Unfortunately, you don't get that from a 3rd string keeper.
-
Interesting thread. If you were at a pub with a black mate, and someone called him a golliwog, how would you react?
-
He fits in well with Poch's system. The high pressing creates chances where you gain possession high up the pitch, with the other sides defense out of shape. JRod's quick enough to bury the ball before they recover--more so than any of our other attackers.
-
Gazzaniga didn't let us down. The mistake he made under pressure from an awkward ball from Lallana, apart from that he was alright, that mistake didn't even begin to compare with Artur Boruc's aberration v Arsenal. He is a young, inexperienced lad playing in the most unforgiving place on the football pitch and he's all we've got. Lambert lost Williamson, Hooiveld sliced his clearance for the goal. Caught out of goal twice but caught the header, made a save then Chambers cleared off the line. Slaughtering him isn't going to make him better.
Just my opinion, but I also thought the back pass was a big ask with the spin and (as I recall) a bounce, while under pressure. Yes, Gazza cocked it up, but he was put in a tough situation by the pass. I would not have judged him too harshly if he handled it, and gave up the indirect kick.
For the goal, on the other hand, while Jos whiffed on the clearance, I thought Gazza's commitment was poor. (In general, I think that's the weakest part of his game, coming off his line.) He came in with his legs towards the ball and direction of movement. He also seemed to play to a spot short of the ball, rather than attacking through it. A confident goalkeeper cleans up mistakes from teammates, and I think Boruc would have smothered that by attacking the ball arms and chest first.
He's young and third choice, so hopefully he'll improve based on this experience.
All opinion are based on a few glimpses of replay from specific angles, of course--so I could be completely wrong.
-
Toni Jimenez and Andy Woodman, goalkeeping coaches of Southampton and Newcastle respectively, were apparently sent off in the aftermath of the touchline set-to in their clubs' game. It looked for a moment there like the (goalkeeping) gloves were about to come off.
From the BBC
Must have been debating diamond v. "w".
Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
in The Lounge
Posted
I'll bite. I won't bet money on what the single roll of a dice is going to be, or even 5 rolls of the dice. However, I'd be willing to bet you the number of 3's that will come up on 2000 rolls of the dice within 5% accuracy. Its averaging, innit? Surely you took some statistics in your chemistry degree.