baggytrousers
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Posts posted by baggytrousers
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9 hours ago, stevegrant said:
If he had, at least there'd be a metric that most people have got some sort of grip on in the real world. And there's been no discernible improvement.
Under Ralph, we were 18th on 12 points from 14 games, having scored 12 and conceded 24. The xG stats suggested that we should have scored 14.72 goals and conceded 20.41 goals, which would have given us 15.39 points and - if every game were played based on xG - would have had us 12th in the table and probably not overly concerned with how things were going.
Since Jones has come in, we are 20th overall and also 20th in that timescale too. 3 points from 7 games, 5 scored, 14 conceded. Should have scored 6.87 and conceded 11.18, which should have earned us 6.39 points.
So the number of goals scored overall (because let's be fair, set piece goals count exactly the same as open play ones) is kind-of the same, goals conceded is exactly the same - two per game - and then looking at what we should have scored and conceded based on the quality of chances created/given up, we were slightly better under Ralph at both ends in terms of chance creation, but only marginally. Where there is a HUGE difference, though - and I know I said that set piece goals count exactly the same as open play ones, but in reality if a team is heavily reliant on set pieces then against an organised and high quality defence you have to do something pretty special to break through - is the difference between set piece and open play goals. Under Jones we've scored just one goal from open play, which was JWP's equaliser at Everton, in 7 games. Meanwhile, under Ralph only two of those 12 goals were from set pieces (Adams equaliser at Leicester, Lavia equaliser against Chelsea) and 10 in open play.
Can you read much into it? I think where the goals are coming from would suggest that we are much more predictable and formulaic under Jones, hence the huge reliance on set piece goals. And predictable in the Premier League is no good unless you have players who are the best in the league, which - other than JWP's free kicks - we don't have. You're relying on the opposition making a mistake if the opposition know exactly what you're going to try to do because of the level of players and coaching and organisation of the teams in this division.
Interesting post but my big question would be why did you leave out the cup games in your analysis ?
Surely the most interesting game of Jones’ reign was the Man City game where both goals were scored from open play and we kept a clean sheet against probably the most potent attack in the league.I’m not attempting to fly the flag for Jones here. I’m as concerned as everyone else and one good week certainly does not make up for the rest. I just think the situation is a bit more nuanced than this analysis and most posts on here are painting.
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42 minutes ago, Badger said:
It's 'The Emperors New Clothes' type of bollocks.
As I've said before, a fairy tale by Hans Christian Ankersen.
Was this the Hans Christian Anderson story where the Scandanavian Emperor had previously taken a side nobody had ever heard off with no budget and knocked a Ronald Koeman side including Mane, Tadic, Pelle, JRod, JWP,Romeu, Fonte out of Europe and then taken a lower league west London side with no budget from nowhere to the point where they are capable of thrashing a certain more established side 3-0 every year and are now the seventh best team in the land ?
Did you not read the prequels ?
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1 hour ago, SaintJakko said:
Not sure if this has been posted, but interesting to see the Luton perspective. Obviously very biased and probably have a hate for us for seeing Jones in a negative light from the get go by saying “Luton manager? Are you crazy?”
Thanks for posting that. Interesting thread. Luton fans opinions seem to be that he’s a really good manager but our players are shit and our fans didn’t give him a chance.
Quite a different perspective.
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6 minutes ago, SotonianWill said:
someone on twitter said the city game was a selles setup. it’s clear from luton when I watched them and the forest game, Jones football philosophy of high tempo is smash it up the park as quick as possible so expect more of that.
It is obvious when he says about outside pressures, he means the fans against palace whereby since they chanted “your football is shit” we’ve tried to play more on the ground. it will resort back to what we were trying before.
That’s the thing. It’s not clear at all. After Selles arrived we started playing 3 at the back all through preseason and most of our early games.
Conversely when Luton had James Justin playing they played a really fluid 442 diamond and scored 94 goals in a season so you could easily argue that 3 at the back and hoof it forward is more Selles than Jones.
Bottom line is we don’t know what the truth is so when Rasmus talks about different reference points I’m assuming he’s referring to behind the scenes info he’s privvy to and we’re not and given his record at previous clubs I think there’s a case for seeing how it all plays out rather than thinking we know it all because of what some bloke on Twitter says.
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19 minutes ago, Fabrice29 said:
28% possession against City. Let’s see if people really want to see that performance again on Saturday because my hunch is people will not have the patience they had that night.
A lot of sides lose out on that stat to City, particularly if they are 2-0 up against them.
If you are saying that was a bad performance then you saw a different game to me.-
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4 minutes ago, Saint Garrett said:
Rasmus seemed to think the Man City performance was the way Jones “wants” to play, so let’s see on Saturday whether that is the case.
Interesting. The perception amongst the fans is that the Man City game was more Selles than Jones but, given that we started the season with 5 at the back, maybe it’s the other way round. Some hope if that’s the case.
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5 hours ago, Saint86 said:
I personally think Semmens and Ralph did us alright. But rasmus' decision making had been an absolute car crash from the start. We had stability and indeed growth off the pitch before SR. They've spent over a hundred million and destroyed the playing sqaud, and any stability in the coaching, academy, and scouting departments. They're on thr verge of setting the club back 10-15 years...
Has he decimated our playing squad ? Do you think Lavia, Bella Kochap, Edozie, DCC, Alcarez are bad players ? Quite a few people in the know think Sulemena has the ability to be top top class. Outside of Romeu who have we lost ?
Surely the problem is more that these are young players, still learning their trade, and they are being asked to play in a variety of systems that are baffling to the best of us and often don’t suit their abilities.
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7 hours ago, SaintsFan86 said:
Definite starters;
Bazunu, kWP, DCC,Perraud, Lavia, Alcaraz, JWP, Edozie, Onuachu.
That leaves the CB and the winger.
Think Sulemana will be our top winger ability-wise but he may well be used as an impact sub to start with.
Probably going to be some rotation in the forward positions so I don’t think you can say Edozie will be a definite starter.-
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13 hours ago, goodymatt said:
Do we think this guy was second choice to Nicolas Jackson, having lost out to Bournemouth before his failed medical. Or did we drag that out as we had other irons in the fire such as Sulemana?
Don’t think you’d ever consider Sulemana second choice to Nicolas Jackson.
Who knows what went on behind the scenes but there’s no doubt we got the better player.
Just listened to the EPL Index podcast where they dissected each clubs transfer window and they rated Sulemana as the best bit of business done by any club in the window.
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1 minute ago, ally_uk said:
So we are signing Djenepo M.K 2.0
Just what we need to get us banging in goals
Jesus wept! 😂
If we're going for extremely lazy comparisons to African Saints players then Mane would be a lot closer to the mark.
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L’equip reporting Sulemana is ours
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On 28/01/2023 at 21:39, Toadhall Saint said:
Sulemana for 22 mill. Fantastic news if true
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Meanwhile it’s being reported that we may be in with a serious chance of getting Sulemana
https://insidefutbol.com/2023/01/28/rennes-leaning-towards-selling-southampton-target/592943/
if that happens you can forget Tella.
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39 minutes ago, CB Fry said:
Thanks for the recommendation - Elek absolutely unequivocal about how good he thinks Jones is. Interesting.
Ultimately though, if we don't win today today it won't mean shit.
You would have found people saying what a good manager Felix Magath was as well. It's got to happen on the pitch.
True, it does have to happen on the pitch and to be fair to Elek he was at pains to point out that he wasn’t saying that Jones will definitely succeed, just that he’s a far better manager than many have given him credit for and he should be given enough time to show that.
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Have a listen to today's episode of The Athletic Football Podcast.
It's the Weekend Preview and from around the 16:40 mark they focus on the Everton Saints game and have an in depth look at Nathan Jones and whether it was a good appointment or not. They have a pundit on there called George Elek and he is very knowledgable about the lower leagues and has a lot to say about both Nathan Jones and Frank Lampard. Interesting stuff.
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Can’t remember a season where I’ve been simultaneously this excited and this nervous at the same time.
The potential of this group of youngsters is enormous but clearly they’re not there yet and our current situation is far from ideal.
unlike a lot on here I think Jones will turn out to be a really good appointment.
if we can survive the short term then the longer term prospects are starting to look the best we’ve had for many a year.
You’ve got to take into account how young that team was that played on Wednesday. JWP was the elder statesman by a good couple of years.
Got a real feeling we’re building something here but this season is gonna be a roller coaster.
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I've listed below all our signings for the last 2 seasons in order of effectiveness along with their ages when we signed them :
- Lavia 18
- Livramento 18
- Adozie 19
- Bella-Kotchap 20
- Peraud 23
- Bazunu 20
- Caleta-Car 25
- Larios 18
- Armstrong 24
- Mara 18
- Cabeillero 40
- Aribo 25
- Lyanco 24
- Walcott 32
- Lis 25
It's pretty obvious from this list that the problem hasn't so much been the young players that we've signed but how the experienced players (Walcott, Aribo, Adam Armstrong) have completely failed. Add Maitland-Niles to this list (not included as he's a loan) who is another experienced player who has also been pants and the picture is even clearer.
I think it's wrong to throw this abuse at SR and the club in general about their strategy of signing talented youngsters as for the most part they've worked out. How many of us would be keen to get rid of Lavia, Livramento, Adozie or Bella-Kotchap. Even Bazunu is clearly a better keeper overall than McCarthy already but that howler against Brighton has provoked some extreme reactions on here.
Where things have gone wrong has been the following :
- Letting Romeu go. SR did drop a bollock here. He was slowing up but still a vital player to the structure of the team and Lavia's injury exposed a big gap in the squad. AMN didn't even come close to covering it.
- The bloody World Cup. SR had deals lined up for both Gakpo and Ramos but both PSV and Benfica pulled the plug late on as they quite rightly concluded it was not in their interest to sell talented diamonds a few months before the biggest shop window in the world.
- A worrying preference for 3 at the back, particularly when one of them is Lyanco. Fair enough when we're playing City but against the sides around us it's had the effect of blunting our attack but not shoring up our defence.
- Individual errors (at both ends) in the games where we have played well and deserved something.
- Lack of confidence due to these errors creating a nervousness in the team.
- Crowd's disappointment in the team adding to this nervousness and creating a vicious circle.
As for Nathan Jones I think the only one of these that can be laid at his door is point 3, but this was something Ralph had initiated at the start of the season. Still I think it's a justifiable criticism of the way he's set his teams out. His previous spell at Luton showed a degree of flexibility in the way he organised his teams with them scoring 90 goals and having a goal difference of nearly 50, playing a 4-3-3 free flowing style one season. I honestly think it's too early to judge him. This is certainly not an Ian Branfoot situation (thankfully) but the concern is that he's got to turn things around quickly. Calls to sack him are certainly premature as is some of the criticism of SR. Events have transpired at the extreme end of their worst nightmares but even in this situation we are only 5 points off 13th so people saying that we're already relegated are clearly wide of the mark. Still, our bums are getting squeakier by the minute.
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Win tonight puts us 2 points behind Leicester in 13th.
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15 hours ago, FarehamSaintJames said:
I suppose if you spend the money on established players you get better results than throwing money at five year olds.
Who knew 🤷🏻♂️
Like Charlie Austin, you mean ?
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The first 10 minutes of this podcast are well worth a listen
Intersting insights about our new manager
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1 hour ago, Mr X said:
Would you say Nathan Jones has quality then?
No idea. Just don’t agree with the emphasis a lot of people put on experience.
Good managers come and go and there’s been plenty of cases where fresh ideas, enthusiasm and hard work have trumped experience.
I happen to think that Poch was a better manager for us than Mark Hughes or Harry Redknap for example.-
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Sport Republic
in The Saints
Posted
Heard the same. Apparently he was France's best player at the recent U17 World Cup in Indonesia. France were tournament runners up whils an England side that featured Jayden Meghoma, Tyler Dibbling and Sam Amo-Ameyaw got knocked out by a park-the-bus Uzbekistan side. Composed, commanding centre-back who looked very impressive and seems destined for greater things.