TWar
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Posts posted by TWar
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5 minutes ago, Dman said:
It’s pretty obvious that he’d likely score more or have more chances to score playing for Chelsea than he would us.
Ings scored fine with us, Adams is putting up better numbers, players are putting up better numbers in teams as good as us or worse (Cornet, Dennis, Pukki, Toney, Raphinha, Maupay, Watkins, Richarlison, Harrison). "He's playing in a bad team" is not an excuse. Obviously he'd have more chances at Chelsea, but so would all the other players I just listed. Are they all off to a club the size of Chelsea too? Dunno if they'll be room for Broja after that.
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4 minutes ago, Turkish said:
That’s what people said, pundits too, you know like people who have played the game and actually know a bit about it who is should we trust, people who watch the match, have played the game in some cases at international level or some bloke on a forum who looks at lots of spreadsheets and clearly has some agenda. Tough one.
You can believe who you want mate but if you think 6 goals in 28 is enough for Chelsea you are living in a dream world. They have 8 players with more goals per minute than him and two are fullbacks.
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Just now, Turkish said:
Nice rewriting of history 3 months ago people were saying Broja was good enough for Chelsea first team and highlighting he’d scored more than all their current strikers.
Oh people were saying it, must be true then. Sure the reigning champions of europe would be stoked to have a striker with 6 goals in 28 games. Maybe judging a player off like 10 games as "Chelsea quality" was a bad move. Who knew.
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1 minute ago, Turkish said:
I don’t think it’s enough it’s been a really disappointing last third of the season. He was great earlier in the season but the last 8 weeks or so hes dropped in form so has Livermento and Salisu, other young lads in their first full premier league season. It happens it’s what young players do. But I’ve got axe to grind with any of them, but then it wasn’t me saying a player 4 years older who now can’t get a game ahead of a 35 year old out of contract in a few weeks who has always been a pretty average player, had a higher ceiling.
Livramento has had an exponentially better season, as has Salisu. Both would start for most sides in the league. A 6 goal striker would not.
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Just now, Turkish said:
I’m not being pedantic, you said city often don’t have a 10 goal a season striker, it’s not true, they’ve had one every season as far back as I could be bothered to look.
the lengths you will go to try to discredit a young player in his first full premier league season is really really weird
How is this relevant to Broja? I meant have top strikers who often don't reach 10 goals rather than have no 10 goal strikers. It was a mistake in making a disclaimer so people weren't pedantic, and completely irrelevant to the overall point.
I don't need to go to lengths to show 6 goals isn't enough, I'm amazed you think it is.
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Just now, Turkish said:
How often is not always? City have had a ten goal a season forward every season for the last 10 season, I couldn’t be arsed to go back further. I see you’ve moved the bench mark from 10 to 11 because it didn’t fit in with your claims 🤣
11-14 was my original range for a decent premier league forward and what Broja should be aiming for. Doesn't really matter tbh, I only included it so people couldn't be pedantic and say "yeah but what about all the city players who don't hit that range, are they bad too?". You found a way to be pedantic regardless, so well done on that front.
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1 minute ago, Turkish said:
Apart from Sergio Aguero who scored 10 goals or more for 9 of his 10 seasons, the 10th being his last when he only started 12 games. Oh and Raheem Stirling who’s scored 10 or more for the last 5 seasons in a row, you mean?
Often, not always. Some players will, other top quality players like Foden, Jesus, Pulisic, Ziyech won't, due to minutes. Last season not a single City forward hit 11 premier league goals due to rotation, with only their midfielder Gundogan making it. So yeah, often, not always.
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35 minutes ago, Fabrice Fernandes no.1 fan said:
I actually have quite a good understanding thanks. Both of our strikers are expected to create for one another, and to finish too, and to press.
I literally did mean the striker who scores second most, which is a reasonable expectation of Broja this season. You would hope for more goals from Adams but 6 in a season isn’t a bad output. What are you expecting from them, what is a reasonable amount of goals from a striker before you think they’re good?
Depends on system, which is why the term "second striker" is important. For Che, for instance, he is putting up 0.08 expected assists per game (and 0.10 the season before when he had a better forward alongside him). This means if all his team are performing as expected he should be looking at about 3-4 assists over the course of a season, add in 8-10 goals and he is contributing to about 11-14 goals a season which is decent for a club of our level (he hit the top end of this last season with 14 g+a). It's what players like Maupay, Wood, and Wilson average (the former two are more consistent, the latter swings wildly under and over that but averages that near enough). Adams also contributes a lot outside of goals and assists with his hold up play and passing quality.
Broja does very very little creatively and is unlikely to contribute significantly to assists (0.01 equates to probably 0 assists a season, maybe 1 if he's lucky). Owing to this again 11-14 goals is a good total, but he has to actually score them unlike Adams who has the assists to add to his game. Honestly 6 is about half what you'd want and is worse than what all three likely relegated sides are working with with Cornet, Pukki, and Dennis all outperforming it.
Worth noting, this all depends on minutes. Clubs like city and chelsea will often not have a 10+ goal striker as they don't play the same forward every week, or even most weeks, but Broja has had most of this season so 6 goals is very poor. There will surely be other examples of players who have massively underperformed (Lukaku, Kane in the first half of the season, DCL) but these players all have past seasons to show that they are just having an off year, Broja does not, this is the one that sets the standard until he improves.
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4 hours ago, Fabrice Fernandes no.1 fan said:
Actually Obafemi scored 3 goals and 2 assists in 658 minutes, the 957 figure includes his FA Cup, EFL cup and Premier League 2 minutes. Please get your statistics correct.
The season you are quoting (19/20) was one where Obafemi showed promise beyond being championship level, and at times was the preferred partner to Ings. Since then has played another near 2 full seasons and shown himself to be of starting chamionship level, and could well play premier league minutes further in his career.
Regarding Broja, he has 6 goals and a goal created (away at West Ham he won the penalty, some people will call that an assist, others won't). Adams is our main striker, Broja has been number 2. Looking at the league most second strikers are around that figure (Lukaku, Jiminez, Wood, Lacazette to name a few). He has added to the squad nicely, and offers a different set of attributes to the other strikers we have with some added physicality and height.
If I were picking the team, he would continue to get minutes alongside Adams, in the hope he can perform again as he has shown earlier in the season he can.
So you are saying he got an even better haul the Broja in his first proper season in the prem?
Calling Broja our "second" striker is a complete misunderstanding of what second striker actually means. It isn't our striker that scores second most, it is the one that plays the more creative role. Adams has 0.93 chances created per 90 to Brojas 0.74 and 0.28 big chances to Brojas 0.18. He also has 0.08 xA per game to Brojas 0.01.
When Adams is over 3 times more likely to get an assist than Broja it is very clear who the second/support striker is. Adams has quite literally always played that role for us.
No wonder people don't appreciate the role properly when their understanding of it is just "striker who scores less goals".
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3 minutes ago, egg said:
Indeed. The mention of Obafemi is odd. Completely different player with completely different abilities. Comparing them two is like comparing Scarlett Johanson with Scarlett Moffatt.
Obafemi is a championship level player who had a crack at the PL and ended up at his level. Broja has shown himself as being on another level. He's since slipped, albeit in a poor team where he's been starved of service and support, and consequently not been scoring.
And yet Obafemi put up 3 goals and 2 assists in 957 minutes whereas Broja has only managed 6 goals and 0 assists in 1772 minutes. One less goal involvement in almost half the minutes. If Broja is so far ahead of championship level Obafemi why don't the numbers reflect that? It's not like we have a much worse team this season, that year we ended 11th which is likely around where we will be this year.
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Just now, trousers said:
I'm interested in adult/intellectual threads about our players, just not childish playground-esque 'discussions'...
I'm making arguments, providing statistics to back them up, haven't made any personal attacks or called anyone by any names. What more do you want in the way of "adult/intellectual" threads. I disagree with the consensus, that should be fine, I don't know what about that you see as childish?
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Just now, Sarisbury Saint said:
That and making things up is his speciality. Pointless arguing with him.
Then don't?
1 minute ago, Dman said:You slag him off in every thread you fool 😂😂😂
I try to stick to it when relevant, sometimes I don't admittedly and apologies for that but I won't apologise for discussing Broja in the Broja thread. It's literally the point of it.
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Just now, trousers said:
I'll leave you to it then. I'll give you a shout if I learn anything new from your ongoing 'discussions'...
Go for it. In the interim, if you aren't interested in discussions about Armando Broja may I suggest visiting a thread with a different title. As re-analysing the player after watching him play is kind of what this ones all about, unless he does something else worthy of note like drunk driving or starting a charity.
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Just now, trousers said:
You've ducked my question, but I guess that underlines why these futile 'discussions' end up going round in circles.
The answer to your question is I am rediscussing it in light of new evidence, ie another crap performance. Same reason why people have been saying Redmond is crap for about 5 years rather than mentioning it once in 2017 and never saying it again.
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Just now, hypochondriac said:
No it doesn't. He's 20 years old.
So he can just continue to underperform indefinitely as he is 20. Weird that didn't work out for Obafemi...
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4 minutes ago, trousers said:
The point I believe egg was making is that he already knows what you (and Dman) think of Broja and that it's futile/pointless repeating the same thing over and over again. What does telling us what we already know dozens of times a day actually achieve?
The argument of "it is a blip and he will return to form" becomes less and less valid after every failed performance.
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Just now, trousers said:
With all due respect, that's the sort of thing that a 9 year old would come out with when confronted by a teacher about a playground spat with another kid....
"I'm right"
"No, I'm right"
"No, you're wrong"
"No, you're wrong"
"Ner ner ner ner ner"
"Wah wah wah"
Except "how can you say we are underperforming when you rated us as the 20th best team in the league?" is an actual argument and not merely "I'm right".
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Just now, wild-saint said:
i wish we had at least one member of our academy or under 23 had played at least as badly as Broja has been this season.
Our academy are playing where they belong, against players their level. We have senior players to play our senior matches and have no obligation to play Chelseas academy players who are way below standard.
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Just now, Dman said:
You have a clear agenda. It’s boring.
Focus your energy on the fact Armstrong isn’t good enough to dislodge him.
no single player is our biggest issue, collectively we’ve not been good enough for a number of reasons.
"Focus your energy on the player who isn't starting, rather than the one who is and is playing poorly" What? Why? When Redmond has a bad game do you ignore it and flood to the Djenepo thread to complain he hasn't replaced him yet? Obviously not, as that is ridiculous.
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Just now, egg said:
FFS, is this shite still going on?!
Dman rates the lad. TWar doesn't. You'll never agree with each other, and although I like a good tussle, this is fucking boring.
I'd get this if this argument was happening in an unrelated thread and when it does I apologise and stop but we are talking in the "Armando Broja" thread, immediately after a game, again when he was ineffectual against another average side. What do you expect? Why come to the thread of a massively underperforming player after another poor performance if you don't expect to see discussion about it?
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Just now, Sarisbury Saint said:
Exactly, he put it on a plate for Ely against Arsenal, but that doesn’t show in his stats because Ely fluffed it.
It doesn't show up favourably in the stats as it was too hard and came in around knee level which made it difficult to finish. Even the commentators at the time said "great run, shame the final ball wasn't better"
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8 minutes ago, Dman said:
This is a fair debate and to be honest, I don’t disagree. The rest of the hateful shite you’re spouting is laughable though.
I can only assume you’re trolling at this point.
What did I say that was "hateful"? I don't think he's up to our standard. Is it hateful when people say that about Valery, McCarthy, Redmond, Bednarek, Lyanco etc?
Or is it just hateful because you disagree and when people disagree I reply to them arguing my case. It only seems like I post a lot about it as a lot of people disagree with me and I patiently reply to each of them who make actual arguments. Therefore a lot of posts. If everyone noticed that our most played CF this season has lower goals than any other most played striker in the league then I'm sure I'd post about him a lot less.
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2 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:
You're looking at the figures and stats again, there is more to football than the numbers of assists and goals. His all round play, creating opening sfor others, stretching the play, creating space etc etc etc - none of that will end up as a statistic, but ultimately that input from him changed our game. Opposition teams saw that and they saw the threat he poses, hence they've stopped allowing him the opportunities - so I'd say the opposition managers and coaches see him as a threat, pundits, former footballers etc all appreciate what he brings to the game. It's not just about figures.
His all round play is abysmal. He honestly barely touches the ball recently. He doesn't "stretch play" in the slightest. His one thing he did well was drive at players and score. And he barely does either any more.
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2 minutes ago, notnowcato said:
You plank. Add a hypothetical Broja half a goal per game to our recent results and we still get a right dicking overall.
So you don't think an extra 5 goals or so would win us a single extra point across the season?
Armando Broja
in The Saints
Posted
I personally subscribe to the belief that an opinion not backed up by facts is interesting but not especially useful. That's why I try to give stats, examples, and comparisons. Makes the posts longer but is worth it for me.
I think they spill into other threads as certain posters have a vendetta against me and bring up these talking points wherever they go and I'm bad at not rising to it. I've made a point to try and avoid it in unrelated threads for the benefit of other posters but I'm not going to avoid talking about Broja in a thread titled Armando Broja. Anyone who appreciates stats based analysis of one of our players in the appropriate thread can read it and anyone who doesn't can ignore it, but this is the right place for it.