gio1saints

If anyone’s interested in the FA technical thinking behind modern goalkeeping theory - which is pretty much text book Bazunu and Saints PB football - check out the vid below. The play is now Saints signature approach so it may help to be informed about what’s the actual rather than made up theory. Watching it should help answer some of the “why does he do that” questions of Baz and Saints play in general from the back. Not if it’s right or wrong to play like we do but just more of the theory behind it. It does not of course explain why he occasionally makes a mess of a save-able shot or like the other day a back pass! On the criteria they outline it’s clear to me why RM and many Saints fans ( incl. myself) rate Baz so highly and feel he has a great future. He is an “A” student of this style of goalkeeping play, ( note I still consider him a student) and at age 20/21 is certainly very advanced in it for his age relative to the league and even worldwide. NB. Cue the usual sarcasm and abuse from some simply for posting this as an info guide but I’d rather you save it for your match day rants at Saints, PB football, RM etc. 😏.

Interesting point patches - the point about reflexes in particular. I do think good reflexes can be inherited - like any particular gene handed down from generation to generation but Im not sure if it’s been medically identified yet! ( unless the discovery of fast twitch muscle counts) I also think goalie reflexes can be improved by diet training etc as egg Saint says Overall, I think modern sports science probably trumps you on this. Athletes are generally stronger fitter faster than they were 50 years ago. Things like hand eye ball coordination training. Even eye spatial awareness training ( remember Clive woodwards infamous training ideas?) didn’t even exist then but nowadays it’s trained and standard practise. Athletes can jump higher run faster and for longer. There’s no strong argument to say that reflexes of a goalie have not also improved. And for it to be “significant” means only a millisecond don’t forget. Without the tech data to hand I’d be confident that Baz’s reflexes are better than that of a comparable 20 year old div 2 goalie in 1960. NB. Equipment tech has evolved too. That heavy laced often water sodden leather ball being kicked around in the 1969’s has been replaced by lightweight fastertravelling versions. Ditto boots. And pitches. The goalies reactions to perform the same task as a goalie of 50 years earlier by necessity need speed up - and I think they probably have.

The narrative for the season so far has been one of learning a new style of football and ( hopefully ) gradually getting better at it. That appears to be happening. A sweetener to the story is that the PB football that this style is based on takes more out of the legs of our opponents than of us. That also appears to be true given the above average number of late goals we score. We’ve also been told that it’s a long season and that injuries , suspensions and plain fatigue will all play a part. Squad depth in which case is vital. And that our squad is relatively stronger vs the rest of the league. The proof will be shown in these last 21 matches. We have delivered c 2pts per match to date and the stats suggest we will do at least, and more likely better, in these final 21 matches. Consequently I’d envisage somewhere between 42 and 48 points to be the most likely achieved tally in these matches. Major injuries to key players excepted of course. Anything under 42 would be disappointing imo given our form. 42 points is par and above 42 is what I hope/expect. A total of 95-100 should mean automatic promotion - but if it’s not fair play to the other two.

Quite ironic that in your first post you dismiss the “useless bunch of refs” as essentially biased towards bigger clubs. so a hard NO to sin bins. But in your very next post you argue that decisions should be left to the referee more and VAR less or not at all. Do you mean to say that VAR is even more useless and biased to big clubs than the referee alone? That’s what I’m getting? Or that both referees AND VAR are useless and biased? Quite a bold statement either way seeing as VAR was supposedly designed to remove or at least reduce referee subjective bias on key decisions.

Nice reframing of the situation. There’s only one reason I can think of why Ryan Fraser cannot play RW for example, or Amo for that matter instead of KWP. That reason is that RM does not ( currently) think they’d be better than the current KWP and JS at RB solution. Otherwise why is super sub Ryan Fraser for instance or boy wonder Amo not being given run outs at right wing already? And ditto we have KS back in four weeks so what’s the big rush? Question I ask myself is : would KWP at RB plus a new right wing be better than : 1. KWP plus Jack Stephens at RB ( the current status quo) ? 2. KWP plus James Bree at RB? 3. Ryan Fraser plus KWP at RB? 4. Amo plus KWP at RB? 5. In late Feb, Kameldeen plus KWP at RB? That I cannot get a clear answer leads me to feel this search for a right wing is maybe not so mission critical as people might think.

I use Sin Bins and it improves compliance - but not necessarily respect - for the referees and assistant ref decisions. Nobody dissents the rugby ref in abusive fashion and gets away with it. No reason why that cannot and should not be the case for soccer imo.

Please predict the next 21 games!

Look at the number of shots* they had without scoring and how many on target…very Saintsy… *22.

I went to watch the Gillingham fiasco. 😤 Trying out players who hadn’t had a run out some minutes in different positions. It was a humiliating fiasco. Perraud and Lyanco at CB tells you all you need to know! Think Che was Captain but it did not help the kids who played not even Charlie who came on to play a “ I’m pissed off watching this rubbish” cameo capped off with a goal at the end Been bitten once. I don’t think RM will make the same mistake twice. Especially not at home. Medium strength team maybe rest those that are carrying injuries or who will benefit is what i expect - NOT 11 changes nonsense.

By #7 I meant as shorthand for predominantly right sided attacker. What used to be called a right wing. Most the stories seem to be around that “ type” of player but the definition does have a grey zone as you allude.

I enjoy walking through tactical / strategic situations like this so please don’t get offended if you feel it’s overthinking. I agree with you generally here - it was well noted saints would replace Tella. But Saints did not. They bought a CF instead. They rented RF instead ( though it was quoted that RF was NOT the Tella replacement). The unspoken logic ( and this is my interpretation - just an opinion) was that between Sam, KS, Amo, now RF and even Charlie AA and Stu we might be able to sort it out. Clearly it’s got to the stage where it’s not been sorted out because we have to play KWP up front on the right - to the detriment of our right sided defence some might say. KWP’s future IS relevant though. If he is sold for £25m now or summer we appear pretty weak on the rh side. Which would not be quite the case if we had brought in a decent #7 type on loan with perhaps right to buy this window and they worked out well. IF we get a high level #7 it gives saints a little wiggle room if a big offer comes in for KWP. At present he’s virtually untouchable ( or as untouchable as anyone in our squad with these owners can be I should say- they all have a price).

KWP at present would be the one to be replaced by a new right wing. Presumably kwp would revert to RB or LB depending on Brees fitness, I guess This apparently strong desire to buy / rent a #7 may or may not have something to do with KWP’s future either now or in the summer. Just a thought. Also consider that Stu aged 31 is also out of contract in summer. He’s a right footed attacking mf. Maybe we just thinking ahead.

I did not deny we are unlikely to go into 2nd half of the season without replacing Che - if he leaves. I agree it’s very likely. Indeed if he goes I think we WILL get a replacement. Probably low fee as you say. I just speculate that if a #7 can do both - and this is potentially where the finance dept step in - that this too is a possibility. I then noted AA has essentially proved that kind of role can work and the existence of RS and SM seem to give a bit more credence to that accountants argument. It is in the realm of possibility. Just like getting a separate #9 and a separate #7 is. So why do you and Dman need jump in to insult me for simply suggesting it? It’s a forum to speculate on Saints possible transfers.

Why not stick to refuting my comment- the abuse is uncalled for. If Che leaves you state we will get a replacement? I don't disagree. It’s very possible. It’s been mentioned by RM. But do you really think it’s “utter shite” to think Saints might not want to splurge big money on another CF when we already got one new one crocked and Sekou awaiting his chance? And if so, a new #7 who can do both might be a cost effective solution? It’s just a possibility. The possibility of a right sided forward / winger also playing as nine is not a computer game, mate. It’s what Saints been doing for quite some time with Adam Armstrong and it’s proven successful. It’s clear what style of football you prefer and it’s not that. Saints bought a 6ft 2” cf to play the more traditional striker role that I expect you are more in favour of - but he’s crocked. How many big men we need? If a #7 can do both why is that utter shite?

What on earth are YOU rambling on about?😂 We are being associated with plenty right sided forward attacking players. Ie #7 types. I do not sense we are being associated with another #9 at present - unless Che leaves. And if so more likely a loan or a cheap purchase rather than big money Striker. RM has stated if Che leaves he’ll be replaced - but not by whom and not specifically by what style of player. IF Che leaves it’s entirely possible the accountants win and he is not replaced - it’s not unfeasible that the new #7 we appear to be keen to get plays as a false #9 at times as per our current system in which case. Hope that’s unrambled it for you. 😂😂😂😂

Guilty as charged. A intelligent answer on this forum can be like hens teeth so I’m super grateful! You are absolutely correct by spotlighting the classic fatal flaw in my comment. 45minutes football and even 25 matches of football preceding it is a weak measure of probability of what’s going to happen or is more likely to happen I should say, in the next 45 minutes. There may be a few mitigating ( but not winning - yours is superior overall) arguments available however which might be of succour to the degenerate gambler ( not me I hope😂) : 1. Unlike Roulette football is a game of ( mostly) skill, not chance. This should, in theory, enhance result predictability. 2. Time is of relevance. Results by different players in Saints teams of yore v Norwich (in this example) are of very little relevance to Jan 2024 result probability today. Results from a match up of the same teams and (almost) the same players four months ago is much more relevant, and adds weighting accordingly. 2. The data group used as reference included matches against every possible opponent in the league at least once including the current opponents. This rounds up / down the gross league statistical probability within a relevant time frame. 3. Semantics time, “tempted to“ is not same as “ will bet”. There is necessarily an evaluation of the odds offered before I might decide to bet on such a situation. 🤓. It goes without saying that my personal evaluation of probability with that suggested by the bookies is a critical factor. For instance if the bookies gave 2/1 on Saints scoring second half I might have considered taking that - but if they offered 2/5 I would decline. I managed to throw some “ insurance” money away on the match though because as soon as we went 0-1 up the odds on Norwich winning 2-1 ( my insta- evaluation of their most likely win in the last 25 minutes or so) went to 28/1. I consequently spent the equivalent of a seat plus travel costs getting there to insure they did not. And got what I deserved / wanted- lost the money but saints did not lose! That’s a degenerate approach lol.

He will probably start v Walsall but in what position is anyone’s guess. indefence of the shoehorning in argument you need only look at how many matches weve lost in this period.. It’s entirely possible that Saints were getting predictable and the JS thing - and it’s corollary - which is KWP playing right wing -has kept opposing managers who thought they could anticipate how we will play, guessing. if so credit for being able to mix up the players and system even within the same tactical framework - but the logic is too deep and advanced for me I’m afraid as I still prefer KWP at RB as do most in the forum it seems - but two goals conceded in 5 frames speaks for itself..

They got a point they scarcely deserved. We huffed and puffed but didn’t happen this time. Given Ipswich could not beat ten man stoke away and they are the team above us this point is not a bad result though as many already saying so no need for gloominess! I was worried we would not have the energy the latter part of this match so frankly I’m taking a point gratefully. And 18 league matches unbeaten! That’s unreal. Something I’ve never experienced as a saints fan. Amazing ! Well done team!

Manning has been told to do that. I would have thought that was obvious by now as it happens every week. I don’t really understand or necessarily agree with the logic of it frankly - ie it’s to keep ourselves defensively compact - but I don’t think singling out manning week after week for a slating - as happens here every match - for doing what he’s told is entirely fair on the bloke. “Blame” RM if you want to blame someone for this apparent vulnerability in our play but Manning is just doing what he’s told.

Close! Here are the facts which basically show his shooting stats rate this season. He has scored six goals so far - 6 goals from 23 shots of which 14 on target. In general, as you’d expect from our main striker, his figures are better than the average in our team. Not saying that’s great - it actually more highlights that putting ball in the net more still our issue ( who knew!!) Shots Data Total Per 90 Minutes Percentile Shots Taken 23 2.01 94 Shots On Target 14/ 23 1.22 97 Shots Off Target 9/ 23 0.79 84 Hit The Woodwork 1 times 0.09 89 Shot Conversion Rate 26.09% 86 Shot Accuracy 60.87% 81 Shots Per Goal Scored 3.83 Che Adams has taken 23 shots in 21 matches so far in the Championship 2023/2024 season. Of the 23 shots, 14 shots were on target and the other 9 shots were off target. That means that Adams's shooting accuracy is 60.87%. He scores a goal for every 3.83 shots he takes and takes 2.01 shots per 90 minutes on the pitch.

Looks like a team picked to weather an early storm and then come good late. I’m thinking it’s going to be a 433 like when we played them earlier this season. Albeit different personnel. Thus time we have plus Flynn and plus THB and plus Aribo on form plus keeping Che if we need a 97 minute goal! Objectively we are stronger in personnel than last time and stronger in playing PB football than last time. Whether that counts…let’s see COYS!

I think Che’s numbers are available….what would your guess be?

Great answer! Though statistically compared to rest of this league not as many loads as one might think 🤣

I’m unsure whether this is common knowledge here but at present the stats are as follows : 1. Saints need to shoot 9 times in order to score a goal. (percentage is 0.11 of our shots go in). A match with 27 shots we should be scoring with three, on average, basically. Does not mean 27shots =3 goals, but it does mean, on average, this season, 27 shots should mean 3 goals. 2. Saints score just under one in three of every shot on target (percentage 0.3) meaning 3/10 shots on target go in. Does not mean about one in every three shots we hit the target will go in. It means that, on average, this season, 1 in about 3 go in. Apologies if that explanation sounds pedantic but it’s pretty important - someone is sure to come on here at some point and say “ but we had 5 shots on target but no goals so you and all this data shite are hillocks” 😂 ( source FBref database) NB, If, like me, you like a flutter and you see that Saints have had a sack full of shots and ditto shots on target in a match ( as an example say we had 10 shots first half today v Norwich and 5 on target but no goals) then it’s the kind of in match situation where I might be tempted to bet on saints actually scoring at some point second half. But that’s only if the odds are decent - in the situation above I’d say it was evens or better we’d score second half so the odds must be at least evens or frankly better or 7/4 or better for me to place the bet.

You nay be right but we are not being associated with another #9 - but rather attacking right forward type players . And the clearest favourite ( aside from AN) to leave this window is Che imo . IF Carvalho was brought in essentially we’d be getting more of the false 9 type approach that, so far, has proven effect five in this league. I do t see us getting a Carvalho plus another #9 unless it’s very special circumstances. If one was available at a great price or if AA got injured essentially . That Ben guy- his goals look for all the world like exact goals KWP scores - which does worry me a tad!