coalman

I think you've misunderstood my post I'm not talking about regression to the mean or law of averages and studies. I'm talking about how it would apply to results coming as a result of taking a particular approach.

I partially agree though there's an argument Swansea played more of a part in that Hughes. I didn't expect us to stay up that year. The only mistake was in extending his contract after we stayed up (at the time I remember saying he'd earned a chance). Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The thing which breaks my heart is we're talking wistfully about Hughes as manager which is a reflection of where the club is right now.

He got a good outcome. Not sure I agree he did a good job.

One of the many counter intuitive things with statistics is it's generally impossible to learn anything meaningful from a single outcome. You'd need a large data set to feel any degree of confidence in the correlation, particularly as it's a correlation rather causal relationship. To give a window into the life of a data nerd the starting point in any kind of meaningful statistical treatment of a problem - the first thing you do is look for correlations in single or combinations of variables. Then build hypotheses This is what I imagine Ankersen has done. The question is how much further he has taken it. For example - the quality of the chance is a subjective interpretation by whoever is watching the game. To have confidence in your correlation you would need to isolate the selection bias of this. For example your data set is from a league scored by a person who is well correlated. Then you try and apply it to another league which works it out differently. At this point you might be comparing apples with oranges without realising it because it's called xG in both. Which leads to another big problem with statistics. That a superficial analysis can come across as authoritative and the majority of to the population can't tell the difference. I'm not saying Ankersen's analysis is superficial but as many have noted here there are big gaps in reasoning which indicate it might be an oversimplification. Good data scientists are ludicrously rare. There are a lot of people out there misusing data though. Noting I'm average at best but have managed a few data science organisations so have an idea what questions to ask.

The thread title change and the shake it all about thread are what makes saintsweb worthwhile

That's poor man management. As a manager you take responsibility when it goes badly and give credit to your players when things go well. You shield them when it's shit and elevate them when it's good.

I fear for our inability to play through City's press. Though they seem to struggle with us for some reason and our players seem to up their game. Given our fragile confidence right now this could get ugly.

I would posit that xG is the current best guess but that it hasn't been rigorously tested and has some glaring weaknesses due to the subjective interpretation required to calculate it.

Without wishing to revive the xG unhappiness in the forum - that's why Ankersen uses xG as a lever for being better able to correlate with outcomes. So he's looking for things which correlate with increasing your own xG and decrease the other team's.

I see Jones has decided to use his post match interviews to have a pop at the fans booing him. Not sure what he gains by doing this.

Diallo and Djenepo to bring it home

"now if everyone could just look like they're enjoying themselves"

I still reckon we've got an og in us. Though on this showing so do Palace.

At times it's like a bunch of people met for the first time in the car park a couple of hours ago and were given Saints shirts and asked to get changed.

Another one in our crosses on target column. Rasmus will be taking note.

What if our defensive tragicomedy is somehow contagious?

Veira is going to give them a rocket at half time for this.

AMN millimetres wide with a glancing header. Should've hit the target.

I love the way JWP bounced in in front of the keeper and our attackers fooled him by making no attempt to attack the ball. That's training ground

We're over performing defensively. They haven't scored with every chance. And we've prevented any shots on target at their goal

The glaring weakness that's always been in JWP's game is receiving the ball under pressure. Hence his sideways and backward passing tendencies. That was something Oriol always bought us

Palace look rattled. There's not way they could have prepared for this team sheet

Jones gave them 2 weeks off when he joined. That's on him. If rumours are to be believed he's lost the changing room with his tactical preferences. He's failed to connect with the fans. Say what you like about Ralph he put a lot of effort into the fans when he joined. Part of the manager's job is giving players the freedom to express themselves. If you want to see the difference that makes just take a look at the England cricket team. They don't care if they lose as long as they are positive. All of these Jones can influence. Managing a Premier League team is as much about how you are with people as your knowledge of the game. Right now my impression is he's lacking both in man management and the football side of things.

It is in keeping with the lack of consistent plan or direction for the club.

Jones does seem to love giving players time off.